Author Topic: Russia says it will pullout from ISS after 2024  (Read 129622 times)

Offline su27k

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Russia says it will pullout from ISS after 2024
« on: 04/19/2021 03:20 pm »
https://tass.com/science/1279545

Quote
MOSCOW, April 18. /TASS/. Russia will carry out a technical inspection of the International Space Station and will make a decision on withdrawing from the project since 2025, and will inform its foreign partners.

According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov’s administration, the timeframe of the station’s operations has expired and its condition leaves much to be desired. "Lately, reports about technical malfunctions have been coming more often. In order to avoid any risks in case of accidents, it’s necessary to carry out a technical inspection of the station. After this, a decision should be made."

"And they [partners] should be fairly notified about the withdrawal from the ISS since 2025," Borisov was quoted as saying in Moscow. Kremlin. Putin program on Rossiya-1 TV channel.

Yeah I know this is like the boy cried wolf, we have been there and done that, there're a lot of old discussion on this, for example:

Scenario: ISS /has/ to be separated. How is it done? What can be done about

Could the Russian Segment be Separated from the International Space Statio

Replacing Russian Functions at ISS

But the situation on the ground also changed significantly, by 2024 US will certainly have 3 cargo ships, 2 crew ships, more advanced satellite servicing vehicles, maybe Dragon XL and Axiom core module, probably Starship too.

So assuming Russia goes ahead with the pullout, what should US do:

1. Should US abandon ISS and bet everything on Axiom (or other commercial station provider)?

2. If US wants to save ISS after Russian pullout, how to do it (2024 version)?

[Edit 26 Jul 2022: renamed thread based on new 2024 pullout announcement]
« Last Edit: 07/26/2022 01:09 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Coastal Ron

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So assuming Russia goes ahead with the pullout, what should US do:

1. Should US abandon ISS and bet everything on Axiom (or other commercial station provider)?

2. If US wants to save ISS after Russian pullout, how to do it (2024 version)?

Replicating the ability of the ISS on another station won't be cheap, but what could be far less expensive and disruptive is to build a module that replicates the functions the departing Russian modules provide.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline GalacticIntruder

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Russia to NASA: Send us money or else.
"And now the Sun will fade, All we are is all we made." Breaking Benjamin

Online daedalus1

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Russia only has one large module (Zvezda). The other was commissioned and paid for by the U.S.

Offline SMS

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Can they boldly take a step forward or reflect on it while standing on the edge of the precipice...
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Russia to NASA: Send us money or else.
Rest of world to Russia (via NASA): Here is money. Good luck on your collaboration with China.
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Offline russianhalo117

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https://tass.com/science/1279545

Quote
MOSCOW, April 18. /TASS/. Russia will carry out a technical inspection of the International Space Station and will make a decision on withdrawing from the project since 2025, and will inform its foreign partners.

According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov’s administration, the timeframe of the station’s operations has expired and its condition leaves much to be desired. "Lately, reports about technical malfunctions have been coming more often. In order to avoid any risks in case of accidents, it’s necessary to carry out a technical inspection of the station. After this, a decision should be made."

"And they [partners] should be fairly notified about the withdrawal from the ISS since 2025," Borisov was quoted as saying in Moscow. Kremlin. Putin program on Rossiya-1 TV channel.

Yeah I know this is like the boy cried wolf, we have been there and done that, there're a lot of old discussion on this, for example:

Scenario: ISS /has/ to be separated. How is it done? What can be done about

Could the Russian Segment be Separated from the International Space Statio

Replacing Russian Functions at ISS

But the situation on the ground also changed significantly, by 2024 US will certainly have 3 cargo ships, 2 crew ships, more advanced satellite servicing vehicles, maybe Dragon XL and Axiom core module, probably Starship too.

So assuming Russia goes ahead with the pullout, what should US do:

1. Should US abandon ISS and bet everything on Axiom (or other commercial station provider)?

2. If US wants to save ISS after Russian pullout, how to do it (2024 version)?
UM has some lifespan shortening issues so they are dropping plans from undocking MLM-U and UM from SM. Besides successor ROSS is now to be built at 98° inclination at direction of the MoD involvement ROSCOSMOS oversees construction and operation, Glavkosmos handles all of commercial and domestic aspects and MoD in change of domestic military payloads and instruments.

A paywalled write-up: http://russianspaceweb.com/protected/ros-um.html

Offline russianhalo117

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https://tass.com/science/1279545

Quote
MOSCOW, April 18. /TASS/. Russia will carry out a technical inspection of the International Space Station and will make a decision on withdrawing from the project since 2025, and will inform its foreign partners.

According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov’s administration, the timeframe of the station’s operations has expired and its condition leaves much to be desired. "Lately, reports about technical malfunctions have been coming more often. In order to avoid any risks in case of accidents, it’s necessary to carry out a technical inspection of the station. After this, a decision should be made."

"And they [partners] should be fairly notified about the withdrawal from the ISS since 2025," Borisov was quoted as saying in Moscow. Kremlin. Putin program on Rossiya-1 TV channel.

Yeah I know this is like the boy cried wolf, we have been there and done that, there're a lot of old discussion on this, for example:

Scenario: ISS /has/ to be separated. How is it done? What can be done about

Could the Russian Segment be Separated from the International Space Statio

Replacing Russian Functions at ISS

But the situation on the ground also changed significantly, by 2024 US will certainly have 3 cargo ships, 2 crew ships, more advanced satellite servicing vehicles, maybe Dragon XL and Axiom core module, probably Starship too.

So assuming Russia goes ahead with the pullout, what should US do:

1. Should US abandon ISS and bet everything on Axiom (or other commercial station provider)?

2. If US wants to save ISS after Russian pullout, how to do it (2024 version)?
UM has some lifespan shortening issues so they are dropping plans from undocking MLM-U and UM from SM. Besides successor ROSS is now to be built at 98° inclination at direction of the MoD involvement. ROSCOSMOS oversees construction and operation, Glavkosmos handles all of commercial, CIS and domestic aspects and MoD in change of domestic military payloads and instruments.

A paywalled write-up: http://russianspaceweb.com/protected/ros-um.html

Offline su27k

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UM has some lifespan shortening issues so they are dropping plans from undocking MLM-U and UM from SM. Besides successor ROSS is now to be built at 98° inclination at direction of the MoD involvement ROSCOSMOS oversees construction and operation, Glavkosmos handles all of commercial and domestic aspects and MoD in change of domestic military payloads and instruments.

A paywalled write-up: http://russianspaceweb.com/protected/ros-um.html

So does this mean if Russia does withdraw from ISS, they wouldn't be able to reuse their existing ISS modules on their new station? If so what will they do with the existing modules? Deorbit them? Leave them on ISS (Sell them to NASA)? Would NASA be able to operate their modules?

Offline GWR64

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Quote
technical inspection

Who should do it and when?

Offline Jim

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UM has some lifespan shortening issues so they are dropping plans from undocking MLM-U and UM from SM. Besides successor ROSS is now to be built at 98° inclination at direction of the MoD involvement ROSCOSMOS oversees construction and operation, Glavkosmos handles all of commercial and domestic aspects and MoD in change of domestic military payloads and instruments.

A paywalled write-up: http://russianspaceweb.com/protected/ros-um.html

So does this mean if Russia does withdraw from ISS, they wouldn't be able to reuse their existing ISS modules on their new station? If so what will they do with the existing modules? Deorbit them? Leave them on ISS (Sell them to NASA)? Would NASA be able to operate their modules?

NASA owns the FGB.

Offline Bob Shaw

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Only Progress can reboost and refuel the ISS. When Progress ceases to be available, or looks like being unavailable soon, that's the end of the ISS - it will have to be deorbited.

Offline Bob Shaw

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Russia to NASA: Send us money or else.
Rest of world to Russia (via NASA): Here is money. Good luck on your collaboration with China.


The post-ISS Russian plans - sketchy though they are - seem to revolve around a vehicle that is the same size and shape as the add-on lab modules for the Chinese space station. Have a look at RussianSpaceWeb.com. I could easily see Russia extending their previous collaboration with China and it offering both parties advantages.

Offline russianhalo117

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UM has some lifespan shortening issues so they are dropping plans from undocking MLM-U and UM from SM. Besides successor ROSS is now to be built at 98° inclination at direction of the MoD involvement ROSCOSMOS oversees construction and operation, Glavkosmos handles all of commercial and domestic aspects and MoD in change of domestic military payloads and instruments.

A paywalled write-up: http://russianspaceweb.com/protected/ros-um.html

So does this mean if Russia does withdraw from ISS, they wouldn't be able to reuse their existing ISS modules on their new station? If so what will they do with the existing modules? Deorbit them? Leave them on ISS (Sell them to NASA)? Would NASA be able to operate their modules?
1) Yes if they stick with the proposed 98° inclination.
2,3,4,5) It remains to be determined. Russia is keen on moving on to modern modules and systems not based on/using legacy hardware and designs. Details are slowly becoming public though counter press is interfering.

Only Progress can reboost and refuel the ISS. When Progress ceases to be available, or looks like being unavailable soon, that's the end of the ISS - it will have to be deorbited.

Not the case, delays in other Russian R&D Programs has resulted in the start of a new modernization program of Soyuz-MS and Progress-MS to be started and the change in launcher to be ordered to allow launches from other cosmodromes and inclinations (paywalled: http://russianspaceweb.com/protected/ross-assembly.html).

Russia to NASA: Send us money or else.
Rest of world to Russia (via NASA): Here is money. Good luck on your collaboration with China.


The post-ISS Russian plans - sketchy though they are - seem to revolve around a vehicle that is the same size and shape as the add-on lab modules for the Chinese space station. Have a look at RussianSpaceWeb.com. I could easily see Russia extending their previous collaboration with China and it offering both parties advantages.

ROSS and the SPM (NEM) modules which predate the Chinese Space Station project allow the retirement of the complex legacy TKS and Salyut/Almaz module designs with modules built using modern manufacturing methods including additive manufacturing, robotic friction stir welding, and other technologies. The interior incorporates a similar Russian design equivalent to the International Standard Payload Rack (ISPR) system in addition to other modernizations. The final inclination selected for CSS prevents Russian involvement without taking prohibitive mass penalties.
« Last Edit: 04/19/2021 08:26 pm by russianhalo117 »

Offline Jim

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Only Progress can reboost and refuel the ISS. When Progress ceases to be available, or looks like being unavailable soon, that's the end of the ISS - it will have to be deorbited.

Wrong, see PPE

Offline bstrong

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Only Progress can reboost and refuel the ISS. When Progress ceases to be available, or looks like being unavailable soon, that's the end of the ISS - it will have to be deorbited.

Wrong, see PPE

Wait, are you saying PPE + Halo could replace the Russian segment? The timing is almost too perfect, like NASA was planning for this.

Offline Jim

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No, a spacecraft like PPE could replace the Russian segment.  Only propulsion is required to be replaced

Online sdsds

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A US visiting vehicle docked at Node 2 forward could provide reboost in a logical, low-risk way. There's no need for reboost to happen from the aft end; the station can fly backwards perfectly happily during a reboost.

NASA owns the FGB.

And the Service Module (Zvezda) is where the presumed leak is located? So how many wires would need to be manually cut to jettison Zvezda and everything aft of there from the US segment?
« Last Edit: 04/20/2021 01:17 am by sdsds »
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Offline bstrong

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...
And the Service Module (Zvezda) is where the presumed leak is located? So how many wires would need to be manually cut to jettison Zvezda and everything aft of there from the US segment?

It just doesn't seem realistic to me that NASA could operate Zarya without Russian support and parts, even if they do own it. If they're going to let Russia walk away, they should ditch Zarya, too, and completely end the Russian dependency, IMO.

Offline Vultur

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I'm a bit confused by "since 2025" in the quote. Does that mean Russian involvement in the ISS ends (if this happens) in 2024 or in 2025?

The final inclination selected for CSS prevents Russian involvement without taking prohibitive mass penalties.

Wait, really?
« Last Edit: 04/20/2021 01:39 am by Vultur »

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