Author Topic: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry  (Read 17213 times)

Offline Oli

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #20 on: 04/30/2016 04:46 pm »
Gentlemen, somebody can comment on new figures on the website SpaceX?
http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities

28.8t to LEO doesn't seem possible. Future version with Raptor upper stage?

Offline Dmitry_V_home

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #21 on: 04/30/2016 05:00 pm »
Gentlemen, somebody can comment on new figures on the website SpaceX?
http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities

28.8t to LEO doesn't seem possible. Future version with Raptor upper stage?

I think, everything is much simpler. Perhaps, 28800 kg are a mass of payload together with the second stage in a parking orbit (that is before 2nd ignition of the engine of the second stage). In this case 8300 kg into GTO quite real figure for the expendable rocket.
« Last Edit: 04/30/2016 05:40 pm by Dmitry_V_home »

Offline Oli

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #22 on: 04/30/2016 05:08 pm »
Gentlemen, somebody can comment on new figures on the website SpaceX?
http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities

28.8t to LEO doesn't seem possible. Future version with Raptor upper stage?

I think, everything is much simpler. Perhaps, 28800 kg are a mass of payload together with the second stage in a parking orbit (that is before yvtory ignition of the engine of the second stage). In this case 8300 kg into GTO quite real figure for the expendable rocket.

Yeah that could work out.

Offline sewebster

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #23 on: 04/30/2016 05:40 pm »
But with a 121t starting mass (after fairing jettison), a 5t empty mass, and a 348 ISP, going from 5.5t to 8.3t means 800 m/s less.  That's too much to reach GTO with only 350 m/s more from the first stage.  A lower empy mass for the second stage only makes this discrepancy worse.

So I'm guessing it's the trajectory.  It must be that ANY recoverable trajectory, not just RLTS, involves more initial lofting, perhaps to get the first stage out out of the atmosphere so it can turn around.  If SpaceX is not recovering, the first stage goes more horizontal and builds up more orbital velocity, and stages at a lower altitude.  This reduces the gravity and pitch losses.

The orbit probably won't be as "high" as for SES-9 either, but I doubt that makes up the difference (I forget the calcs on the extra dV they gave it).

Offline sewebster

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #24 on: 04/30/2016 06:08 pm »
I think, everything is much simpler. Perhaps, 28800 kg are a mass of payload together with the second stage in a parking orbit (that is before 2nd ignition of the engine of the second stage). In this case 8300 kg into GTO quite real figure for the expendable rocket.
By the same logic should be linked 54 tons to LEO and 22 tons to GTO for FH then.

Would they really quote numbers like that? Maybe I don't understand it, but it seems like an irrelevant number to a customer...?

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #25 on: 04/30/2016 06:42 pm »
What if the customer wants a better orbit (such as the GEO-1500 m/s that Ariane can provide) ?

By my estimate, this requires about 450 m/s more a basic GTO (needs an apogee about 100,000 km).  Using the assumptions that the second stage starts at 121t after fairing jettison, 5t empty mass, then to get the extra 450 m/s:

If a re-usable launch can do 5500 kg to GEO-1800, then it can do 4000 kg to GEO-1500.

If an expendable launch can do 8300 kg to GEO-1800, it can do 6600 kg to GEO-1500.

Offline sewebster

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #26 on: 04/30/2016 07:10 pm »
What if the customer wants a better orbit (such as the GEO-1500 m/s that Ariane can provide) ?

By my estimate, this requires about 450 m/s more a basic GTO (needs an apogee about 100,000 km).  Using the assumptions that the second stage starts at 121t after fairing jettison, 5t empty mass, then to get the extra 450 m/s:

If a re-usable launch can do 5500 kg to GEO-1800, then it can do 4000 kg to GEO-1500.

If an expendable launch can do 8300 kg to GEO-1800, it can do 6600 kg to GEO-1500.

Doesn't it need 300 m/s to go from GEO-1800 to GEO-1500?

Offline rocx

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #27 on: 04/30/2016 07:31 pm »
Doesn't it need 300 m/s to go from GEO-1800 to GEO-1500?
Nope, the GEO-xxx numbers refer to the amount of delta-V needed at apogee burn. Due to the beautiful mathematics of orbital mechanics, to reduce this amount (by reducing the inclination) you need more delta-v at transfer orbit insertion.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #28 on: 05/01/2016 12:45 am »
What if the customer wants a better orbit (such as the GEO-1500 m/s that Ariane can provide) ?

By my estimate, this requires about 450 m/s more a basic GTO (needs an apogee about 100,000 km).  Using the assumptions that the second stage starts at 121t after fairing jettison, 5t empty mass, then to get the extra 450 m/s:

If a re-usable launch can do 5500 kg to GEO-1800, then it can do 4000 kg to GEO-1500.

If an expendable launch can do 8300 kg to GEO-1800, it can do 6600 kg to GEO-1500.

Doesn't it need 300 m/s to go from GEO-1800 to GEO-1500?
Yes, if you apply the delta-V at apogee.  But doing this has several drawbacks.  You need to do a three-burn mission, where the second stage burns once for parking orbit, once for GTO, then again at apogee after about a 6 hour coast.  And even if you can do this, the booster will end up in a very ugly orbit - too high to decay naturally, and too much delta V to de-orbit, and crossing the altitude of other orbits.

But the booster can help another way that does not have these problems.  With a more powerful second burn, it can put the payload into a less-inclined orbit with a much higher apogee (making plane changes easier).   Now the booster is not doing anything it would not do anyway, just more doing it more strongly, and the booster ends up in an orbit that will decay naturally (something like 375x100,000 km, typically).  But it's not as efficient, and takes about 450 m/s more oomph to save the payload 300 m/s of maneuvering.

Offline John Alan

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #29 on: 05/01/2016 07:08 am »
I would sure like to see the full price sheet including the expendable modes...  ???

I bet you will now pay dearly if you want to exceed the 5.5mt or 8.0mt to GTO caps posted online...
In effect... they just raised prices IF you dare exceed these listed payload points...
Satellite designers just got a new weight target they must be under at all cost... 5.5mt or 8.0mt...
And you will pay dearly for that last 2.5mt...
Still... if you can't design a bird under these generous weight points...  ::)

And... are the listed prices with no choice new or used?.. Extra for new required?

I bet the full price sheet being used for new launch orders NET 2018 is VERY interesting...  ;D  ;)

On edit..
My thinking is SpaceX is keeping pricing about the same as in the past... BUT changing the terms...
Get everyone used to reusable S1 as the norm...
Put the increased profit into funding BFR and the infrastructure to support it...
They already are the lowest cost provider in the world... so why lower prices even more...
my opinion...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/01/2016 07:25 am by John Alan »

Online Zed_Noir

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #30 on: 05/01/2016 08:05 am »
Gentlemen, somebody can comment on new figures on the website SpaceX?
http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities

28.8t to LEO doesn't seem possible. Future version with Raptor upper stage?

I think, everything is much simpler. Perhaps, 28800 kg are a mass of payload together with the second stage in a parking orbit (that is before 2nd ignition of the engine of the second stage). In this case 8300 kg into GTO quite real figure for the expendable rocket.

Musk confirm the correct payload to LEO is 22800 kg for the Falcon 9 on twitter plus more performance stats updates :o
Quote
Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk  7h7 hours ago
@elonmusk F9 LEO payload on capabilities page (correct figure on main page) should be 22,800 kg
Quote
Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk  2h2 hours ago
F9 thrust at liftoff will be raised to 1.71M lbf later this year. It is capable of 1.9M lbf in flight.
Quote
Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk  2h2 hours ago
Falcon Heavy thrust will be 5.1M lbf at liftoff --  twice any rocket currently flying. It's a beast...
twitter link


Online Prettz

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #31 on: 05/01/2016 04:21 pm »
I bet you will now pay dearly if you want to exceed the 5.5mt or 8.0mt to GTO caps posted online...
In effect... they just raised prices IF you dare exceed these listed payload points...
Satellite designers just got a new weight target they must be under at all cost... 5.5mt or 8.0mt...
Oh no. Now all the satellite manufacturers will have to stop building GEO satellites heavier than 8 tons. Thanks a lot, SpaceX.

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #32 on: 05/01/2016 04:35 pm »
I would sure like to see the full price sheet including the expendable modes...  ???

I bet you will now pay dearly if you want to exceed the 5.5mt or 8.0mt to GTO caps posted online...
In effect... they just raised prices IF you dare exceed these listed payload points...
Satellite designers just got a new weight target they must be under at all cost... 5.5mt or 8.0mt...
And you will pay dearly for that last 2.5mt...
Still... if you can't design a bird under these generous weight points...  ::)


Uhm, I'm not sure where you're coming from.

If SpaceX decided to maddeningly charge monolithic magniloquent machiavellian mountains of unmannerly moolah for payloads over eight tonnes to GTO, then Falcon Heavy is out of a job.
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Offline John Alan

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #33 on: 05/01/2016 05:36 pm »
I would sure like to see the full price sheet including the expendable modes...  ???

I bet you will now pay dearly if you want to exceed the 5.5mt or 8.0mt to GTO caps posted online...
In effect... they just raised prices IF you dare exceed these listed payload points...
Satellite designers just got a new weight target they must be under at all cost... 5.5mt or 8.0mt...
And you will pay dearly for that last 2.5mt...
Still... if you can't design a bird under these generous weight points...  ::)


Uhm, I'm not sure where you're coming from.

If SpaceX decided to maddeningly charge monolithic magniloquent machiavellian mountains of unmannerly moolah for payloads over eight tonnes to GTO, then Falcon Heavy is out of a job.

My point was they WILL pay the cost of thrown away stages in 2018 verses cost included up till now...
SpaceX will use prices to drive the market to accept reuse as the new norm... they have to, my opinion..

On edit...
Example quote (WAG on my part)... customer has 8mt bird they want launched to Geo...
That will be $90 mil on a FH... our choice new or used stages...
Or say $100 mil on a used core F9 expendable with used stage... (barn is full, on sale)
All new... that will be $125 mil please...

Now... Customer has a 22.3mt bird they want sent to Geo...  :o
Sure... FH full expendable... we can do that for you...
That will be (WAG) $175mil our choice new or used and $250mil all new...

My point was... SpaceX was on a mission to be low cost provider and get re-usability working...
NOW(as of 2018) they will pivot to still be low cost provider... BUT increase profits to fund BFR and Mars...

That was my whole point...
They are going to be able to (in effect) charge by the m-ton instead of by the launch vehicle...
and that 5.5mt weight point is now the cheapest cost to weight value point in the market...
 ;)
« Last Edit: 05/01/2016 06:10 pm by John Alan »

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #34 on: 05/01/2016 05:43 pm »

My point was they WILL pay cost of thrown away stages in 2018 verses cost included up till now...

They do anyway - it's factored into the launch cost as with every other LV.

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your point.

Edit: Do you mean that reusability pricing will become the norm, and that current rates will be charged only for expended launch?
« Last Edit: 05/01/2016 05:44 pm by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Offline John Alan

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #35 on: 05/01/2016 06:16 pm »

My point was they WILL pay cost of thrown away stages in 2018 verses cost included up till now...

They do anyway - it's factored into the launch cost as with every other LV.

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your point.

Edit: Do you mean that reusability pricing will become the norm, and that current rates will be charged only for expended launch?

Yes... (to your edit above)... reusablity is now required to get back to past pricing points...
I edited my own post to clarify this point... two posts above...
« Last Edit: 05/01/2016 06:19 pm by John Alan »

Offline mme

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #36 on: 05/01/2016 07:23 pm »

My point was they WILL pay cost of thrown away stages in 2018 verses cost included up till now...

They do anyway - it's factored into the launch cost as with every other LV.

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your point.

Edit: Do you mean that reusability pricing will become the norm, and that current rates will be charged only for expended launch?

Yes... (to your edit above)... reusablity is now required to get back to past pricing points...
I edited my own post to clarify this point... two posts above...
I do not think that is not correct.  SpaceX have publicly stated that they think that with reuse, the price of an F9 will drop to the $40 million dollar.   FH prices may assume booster reusability since expending them offers limited benefit.

I think people have overestimated customer's reluctance about flying on previously flown rockets.  SES is chomping at the bit to fly on a reused booster.  They publicly low-balled the offer at $30 million, but that doesn't mean they are concerned.  It just means they want a deal.  If they were afraid of used boosters, they would not accept even a free ride.  Their satellites cost 100s of millions to make and take years to build.  They will only launch if they are confident that the risk is low and they have already publicly stated that when SpaceX is convinced it's safe, they will gladly book one.

Edit:  References -

- Parabolic Arc Article: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2016/03/11/shotwell-spacex-reduce-launch-costs-30-percent-reusing-stagde/
- SES-9 Mission Briefing:
« Last Edit: 05/01/2016 07:29 pm by mme »
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Offline ChrisGebhardt

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #37 on: 05/01/2016 10:02 pm »
Gentlemen, somebody can comment on new figures on the website SpaceX?
http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities

Wow - 8300 kg to GTO.  I did not see that coming.

5500 kg recoverable makes sense.  They almost recovered SES-9 at 5300.  With a slightly less aggressive GTO, 5500 seems doable.

But 8300 kg is a lot.  We know that SES-9 had a 17 second re-entry, and a roughly 6 second landing, both with 3 engines.  So an expendable could have perhaps 8 more seconds of 9-engine booster burn.  We know that near cutoff the booster is accelerating at 4-5 Gs, so that's maybe 350 m/s more for expendable.

But with a 121t starting mass (after fairing jettison), a 5t empty mass, and a 348 ISP, going from 5.5t to 8.3t means 800 m/s less.  That's too much to reach GTO with only 350 m/s more from the first stage.  A lower empy mass for the second stage only makes this discrepancy worse.

So I'm guessing it's the trajectory.  It must be that ANY recoverable trajectory, not just RLTS, involves more initial lofting, perhaps to get the first stage out out of the atmosphere so it can turn around.  If SpaceX is not recovering, the first stage goes more horizontal and builds up more orbital velocity, and stages at a lower altitude.  This reduces the gravity and pitch losses.

Based on updated numbers at SX website, Merlin engines are again getting more powerful - so less gravity losses during whole flight should help somewhat (and maybe other improvements).
It has been suspected for a long time that SpaceX sandbagged the initial performance numbers of Merlin 1D and Falcon 9. The new performance figures seem to confirm this: now that SpaceX has a good number of missions of both the 1.1 and the FT under it's belt they likely have more confidence in the final performance figures.

But what were the original (or last released) performances numbers we had for Falcon 9 FT?  Does anyone have those or can someone point me to them?  I'd be nice to have to compare for this article I'm working on.

Cheers,
Chris G.

Offline mvpel

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #38 on: 05/01/2016 11:26 pm »
But what were the original (or last released) performances numbers we had for Falcon 9 FT?  Does anyone have those or can someone point me to them?  I'd be nice to have to compare for this article I'm working on.

Chris, if you use the Internet Archive's Wayback Machine, there's snapshots of the specs page for Falcon 9 going back to July 15, 2013:

Capture Summary for www.spacex.com/falcon9

The earliest capture in 2013 shows this:

Quote
Launch Site:   Cape Canaveral Air Force Station
    
Mass to Low Earth Orbit (LEO):   13,150 kg (29,000 lb)
Inclination:   28.5 degree
    
Mass to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO):   4,850 kg (10,692 lb)
Inclination:   27 degree

... all for the low, low price of $54 million.
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Offline dorkmo

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Re: Payload estimate for allowing routine re-entry
« Reply #39 on: 05/02/2016 10:20 am »
i made this chart a while back. i could have done a better job but yeah.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gfcyWNtavUeN6p9AeXkloTSJY4fOEa3sBOQM8jORSio/

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