Author Topic: When will we reach 1000 launches per year? (Read 579 times)

Tywin · « **on:** 07/05/2025 01:05 pm »

Ok similar to this old thread-poll, when your think, we had 1000 launches per year in the World?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46419.0

Tywin · « **Reply #1 on:** 07/05/2025 01:08 pm »

I think so, with China with 2-3 mega constellations deployment already, and soon reusable rockets, we will had 500 launches very soon, maybe in 3-5 years...

But my bet, is 2035 for 1000 launches in the World...

AmigaClone · « **Reply #2 on:** 07/05/2025 06:27 pm »

First, to answer the question posed in https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46419.msg2327066#msg2327066

posted by

Quote from: Tywin

02 January 2022
When we reach the 200 launches per year?

That mark was reached in 2023.

Based on the first half of 2025, we could reach 300 launches this year. I suspect we might see F9 peak at around 200 launches/year. Once Starship cadence ramps up, F9 cadence with drop quickly.

For 1000 launches per year, we will need to see several launch vehicles with a combined launch cadence of about 4.5x the current launch cadence of a Falcon 9.

The big projects for those launch vehicle families would include launches supporting mega-constellations, launches supporting permanent lunar bases, and launches supporting Mars colonization. I would say that it would be ten years or more - unless several companies actually meet their stated goals for the next decade.

Tywin · « **Reply #3 on:** 07/05/2025 07:56 pm »

Quote from: AmigaClone on 07/05/2025 06:27 pm

First, to answer the question posed in https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46419.msg2327066#msg2327066

posted by
Quote from: Tywin
02 January 2022
When we reach the 200 launches per year?
That mark was reached in 2023.

Based on the first half of 2025, we could reach 300 launches this year. I suspect we might see F9 peak at around 200 launches/year. Once Starship cadence ramps up, F9 cadence with drop quickly.

For 1000 launches per year, we will need to see several launch vehicles with a combined launch cadence of about 4.5x the current launch cadence of a Falcon 9.

The big projects for those launch vehicle families would include launches supporting mega-constellations, launches supporting permanent lunar bases, and launches supporting Mars colonization. I would say that it would be ten years or more - unless several companies actually meet their stated goals for the next decade.

Yeah I see easy to reach 500 launches in the next few years, but after that is difficult to growth a lot more...

redneck · « **Reply #4 on:** 07/05/2025 09:05 pm »

Quote from: Tywin on 07/05/2025 07:56 pm

I would say that it would be ten years or more - unless several companies actually meet their stated goals for the next decade.

Yeah I see easy to reach 500 launches in the next few years, but after that is difficult to growth a lot more...

That depends on future markets coming online. If tourism gets price competitive enough, 1,000 flights would be trivial. I suggest at least 10 years though before safe and affordable enough for routine flights is common. Could be far less, though unlikely I think.

Solar power in low(ish) orbit is possible, even if unlikely.

Manufacturing and private research seem like the next expansion market.

DeimosDream · « **Reply #5 on:** 07/07/2025 12:06 pm »

Not in our lifetimes, especially not if only counting orbital.

Mega project that requires 100+ flights/year will drive development of bigger more efficient and less frequently launched rockets that will allow increased tonnage at decreased flight rates.

400 seems likely.
600 seems plausible, especially as a peak rather than routine.
800+ I can't imagine.