Sierra Space Dream Chaser DISCUSSION Thread (was SNC)

[JAFO]

I can't see SpaceX picking up Dream Chaser if SNS goes TU, wonder if Blue would?

[AndrewM]

From everything we have seen publicly at least, it seems the vehicle is solid, progressing thru the milestones and passing all the tests.

So is it just taking longer (and costing more) than anticipated? Or did they run in to all kinds of technical problems that needed rework/redesign that put them so far behind schedule?

The FCC permits keep showing that the EMI/EMC and Tow/Taxi tests keep getting delayed and we still haven't heard anything on the acoustic test for Tenacity despite Shooting Star's completing in September. In the press release announcing the completion for Shooting Star it seemed like Tenacity's would be starting shortly to me.

ARS will be using an even larger setup for Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane; the impending test will be the largest payload ever tested with DFAN.

Until we get confirmation that at least one of these 3 major milestones is complete, I'll think DCC-1 is at least 6 months away.

Emphasis mine.

That's actually an optimistic assessment.

That's a shame. Hopefully we can get some new info from them on testing targets and a new launch date since I think we all know May isn't happening.

[woods170]

I can't see SpaceX picking up Dream Chaser if SNS goes TU, wonder if Blue would?

SpaceX hates space planes. Particularly tiny ones that come with more problems than benefits. And the funny thing is: Bezos thinks exactly the same.

If Sierra goes under, none of the current "big players" (SpaceX, Blue Origin, LockMart, Boeing, etc) is going to bail them out IMO.

[woods170]

From everything we have seen publicly at least, it seems the vehicle is solid, progressing thru the milestones and passing all the tests.

So is it just taking longer (and costing more) than anticipated? Or did they run in to all kinds of technical problems that needed rework/redesign that put them so far behind schedule?

The FCC permits keep showing that the EMI/EMC and Tow/Taxi tests keep getting delayed and we still haven't heard anything on the acoustic test for Tenacity despite Shooting Star's completing in September. In the press release announcing the completion for Shooting Star it seemed like Tenacity's would be starting shortly to me.

ARS will be using an even larger setup for Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane; the impending test will be the largest payload ever tested with DFAN.

Until we get confirmation that at least one of these 3 major milestones is complete, I'll think DCC-1 is at least 6 months away.

Emphasis mine.

That's actually an optimistic assessment.

That's a shame. Hopefully we can get some new info from them on testing targets and a new launch date since I think we all know May isn't happening.

Correct. May isn't happening. Sierra just hasn't formally announced it yet.
Sure, there will be people who will go like "But Sierra says May!", but those are just people who live under a rock or are in full denial of reality.

[jarmumd]

I can't see SpaceX picking up Dream Chaser if SNS goes TU, wonder if Blue would?

SpaceX hates space planes. Particularly tiny ones that come with more problems than benefits. And the funny thing is: Bezos thinks exactly the same.

If Sierra goes under, none of the current "big players" (SpaceX, Blue Origin, LockMart, Boeing, etc) is going to bail them out IMO.

I see a strategy that both Sierra Space and Starlab seem to be following, where they are engaging internationally (Sierra+JAXA, Starlab+ESA) as a way to distance themselves from the mega billionaires (SpX/BO), and the mega contractors (Lockheed/Boeing), but build government support.

[Lee Jay]

From everything we have seen publicly at least, it seems the vehicle is solid, progressing thru the milestones and passing all the tests.

So is it just taking longer (and costing more) than anticipated? Or did they run in to all kinds of technical problems that needed rework/redesign that put them so far behind schedule?

The FCC permits keep showing that the EMI/EMC and Tow/Taxi tests keep getting delayed and we still haven't heard anything on the acoustic test for Tenacity despite Shooting Star's completing in September. In the press release announcing the completion for Shooting Star it seemed like Tenacity's would be starting shortly to me.

ARS will be using an even larger setup for Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane; the impending test will be the largest payload ever tested with DFAN.

Until we get confirmation that at least one of these 3 major milestones is complete, I'll think DCC-1 is at least 6 months away.

Emphasis mine.

That's actually an optimistic assessment.

From what I hear, the long pole is Vulcan return to flight.

[mn]

From everything we have seen publicly at least, it seems the vehicle is solid, progressing thru the milestones and passing all the tests.

So is it just taking longer (and costing more) than anticipated? Or did they run in to all kinds of technical problems that needed rework/redesign that put them so far behind schedule?

The FCC permits keep showing that the EMI/EMC and Tow/Taxi tests keep getting delayed and we still haven't heard anything on the acoustic test for Tenacity despite Shooting Star's completing in September. In the press release announcing the completion for Shooting Star it seemed like Tenacity's would be starting shortly to me.

ARS will be using an even larger setup for Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane; the impending test will be the largest payload ever tested with DFAN.

Until we get confirmation that at least one of these 3 major milestones is complete, I'll think DCC-1 is at least 6 months away.

Emphasis mine.

That's actually an optimistic assessment.

From what I hear, the long pole is Vulcan return to flight.

That doesn't add up.

We are talking about vehicle milestones that need to occur and it seems requiring at least 6 months, are you saying that Vulcan rtf is later than that? Or are you disagreeing that the vehicle is at least 6 months away from being ready?

[Lee Jay]

From everything we have seen publicly at least, it seems the vehicle is solid, progressing thru the milestones and passing all the tests.

So is it just taking longer (and costing more) than anticipated? Or did they run in to all kinds of technical problems that needed rework/redesign that put them so far behind schedule?

The FCC permits keep showing that the EMI/EMC and Tow/Taxi tests keep getting delayed and we still haven't heard anything on the acoustic test for Tenacity despite Shooting Star's completing in September. In the press release announcing the completion for Shooting Star it seemed like Tenacity's would be starting shortly to me.

ARS will be using an even larger setup for Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane; the impending test will be the largest payload ever tested with DFAN.

Until we get confirmation that at least one of these 3 major milestones is complete, I'll think DCC-1 is at least 6 months away.

Emphasis mine.

That's actually an optimistic assessment.

From what I hear, the long pole is Vulcan return to flight.

That doesn't add up.

We are talking about vehicle milestones that need to occur and it seems requiring at least 6 months, are you saying that Vulcan rtf is later than that? Or are you disagreeing that the vehicle is at least 6 months away from being ready?

Well, Vulcan RTF isn't DC's launch.  DC's launch is after that.  So it could be that DC is still 6 months out and Vulcan is still the pacing item.  I don't know.

[AndrewM]

From everything we have seen publicly at least, it seems the vehicle is solid, progressing thru the milestones and passing all the tests.

So is it just taking longer (and costing more) than anticipated? Or did they run in to all kinds of technical problems that needed rework/redesign that put them so far behind schedule?

The FCC permits keep showing that the EMI/EMC and Tow/Taxi tests keep getting delayed and we still haven't heard anything on the acoustic test for Tenacity despite Shooting Star's completing in September. In the press release announcing the completion for Shooting Star it seemed like Tenacity's would be starting shortly to me.

ARS will be using an even larger setup for Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spaceplane; the impending test will be the largest payload ever tested with DFAN.

Until we get confirmation that at least one of these 3 major milestones is complete, I'll think DCC-1 is at least 6 months away.

Emphasis mine.

That's actually an optimistic assessment.

From what I hear, the long pole is Vulcan return to flight.

That doesn't add up.

We are talking about vehicle milestones that need to occur and it seems requiring at least 6 months, are you saying that Vulcan rtf is later than that? Or are you disagreeing that the vehicle is at least 6 months away from being ready?

Well, Vulcan RTF isn't DC's launch.  DC's launch is after that.  So it could be that DC is still 6 months out and Vulcan is still the pacing item.  I don't know.

At the earliest, Dream Chaser could be flight 5 or 6 of Vulcan. Flight 3 is USSF-106, 4 is USSF-87, 5 was GPS III-7 and USSF-106 is now NET Q2 so I could see that being a somewhat possible reason. With GPS III-7 launching on F9 instead, I'm not sure if SV08 would take that slot or if it would be available to Sierra Space. I still think it's Tenacity testing driving the schedule though.

[Tomness]

https://x.com/jeff_foust/status/1899124444225843231

One interesting note from a #satshow panel this morning: Erik Daehler of Sierra Space says the company is now targeting the end of summer for the first Dream Chaser mission.

I guess NASA and ISS needs bulk Cargo and Return capabilities asap via CBM with Cygnus being delayed

[JAFO]

Trying not to get my hopes up (again), and yet.....

[StraumliBlight]

Washington Post: NASA, Pentagon push for SpaceX alternatives amid Trump’s feud with Musk [Jun 7]

Federal officials at NASA and the Pentagon moved swiftly this week to urge competitors to Elon Musk’s SpaceX to more quickly develop alternative rockets and spacecraft after President Donald Trump threatened to cancel Space X’s contracts and Musk’s defiant response.

[...]

Since Thursday’s exchange, at least three commercial space companies, RocketLab, Stoke Space and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, were contacted by government officials about the status of their rockets and when they might be available for government missions, according to four people familiar with the inquiries. (Bezos owns The Washington Post.)

Officials at Sierra Space, which is developing a Dream Chaser spaceplane that could deliver cargo to the space station, were in a meeting with NASA officials on Thursday as the Trump-Musk feud was getting underway.

“Sierra Space stands ready to ensure uninterrupted support for the International Space Station,” Fatih Ozmen, the company’s CEO said in a statement to The Post. He added that, “NASA mentioned to us that they want diversity and do not want to rely on a single provider.” Dream Chaser “is in final testing and integration at Kennedy Space Center,” Ozmen said. “We are working closely with NASA leadership to fly the vehicle later this year.”

[TrevorMonty]

RL, Blue and SS are already working as fast as they can on their new vehicles. A large $$ injection from government would definitely revive mothballed crew Dream Chaser development program.

Because Drsgon was so reliable there wasn't urgency in NASA for alternative so they weren't worried about delays with Starliner.

[jimvela]

Because Drsgon was so reliable there wasn't urgency in NASA for alternative so they weren't worried about delays with Starliner.

Turns out,  there was/is an unreliable element of the Dragon, just one that isn’t technical.

Now that this problem has been demonstrated, it will be addressed in an appropriate way.

[jongoff]

RL, Blue and SS are already working as fast as they can on their new vehicles. A large $$ injection from government would definitely revive mothballed crew Dream Chaser development program.

Because Drsgon was so reliable there wasn't urgency in NASA for alternative so they weren't worried about delays with Starliner.

The sad thing is that once it was clear that Starliner wasn't going to be either affordable or reliable, they should have pulled the plug, and used the remaining money to fund an affordable competitor. Maybe that would be Crew Dreamchaser, maybe something from Blue, maybe something from someone else entirely. But just letting that drag out, when they knew it would create a monopoly situation for CLD operators was a bad call on NASA's part. But that's probably a discussion for another thread.

~Jon

[JAFO]

Then there are the delays/backlog with Vulcan.
Even if Tenacity was suddenly ready to fly by the end of the year, when would they be able to fit a launch in?

[thespacecow]

RL, Blue and SS are already working as fast as they can on their new vehicles. A large $$ injection from government would definitely revive mothballed crew Dream Chaser development program.

Good luck doing that with a 25% cut to ISS budget and having to divert money to USDV.

Reality is Dragon is all NASA can afford, an anti-SpaceX MSM hit piece is not going to change that.

[thespacecow]

Because Drsgon was so reliable there wasn't urgency in NASA for alternative so they weren't worried about delays with Starliner.

Turns out,  there was/is an unreliable element of the Dragon, just one that isn’t technical.

You mean like POTUS trying to cancel Dragon contract?

Now that this problem has been demonstrated, it will be addressed in an appropriate way.

Yes, like POTUS shouldn't be trying to cancel NASA contract on a whim.

[AndrewM]

With EMI/EMC testing having stretched into at least late June and 4 major tests (acoustic, day in the life, tow/taxi, hot fire) still left to even start, I'm thinking NET Q1 2026. HTV-X1 and NG-23 are scheduled for this fall so that further complicates the manifest.

[yg1968]

https://twitter.com/ExploreSpaceKSC/status/1941527572707463394