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Falcon 9 could handle most of that. I think between Atlas V, Vulcan, and New Glenn, the rest could be handled.These launch contractdms only deliver half constellation. Going need to purchase lot more launches. Come 2028 there should be another 4 RLV options besides SpaceX. Neutron, Ecilpse, Terran R and Stoke. Between them and NG should be able to increase deployment rate.The original contracts included options for the later flights, apparently mostly on New Glenn. It was all very aggressive back then in 2022, but it at least the numbers added up. The idea was to use Vulcan and Arianne 6, both starting in 2023, to handle the bulk of the first 1618 satellites and get them launched prior to the July 2026 deadline. New Glenn would handle some of this early load as it ramped up and would handle the bulk of the load after that date. This plan is in a shambles, as all three LVs are years behind schedule. There is no feasible way for Kuiper to make the schedule, and FCC should cancel their license and put them out of their misery. Starting today, they would need 60 launches of 27 satellites each over the next 12 months, or more than one launch per week.
Nothing has been officially confirmed. With launch dates for NG-2 and NG-3 continuing to slide, it may be premature.
Primary Launch Day 26 JUL 0209Z-0543Z
Backup Launch Day 27 JUL 0209Z-0543Z
Backup Launch Day 28 JUL 0209Z-0543Z
Title 47 Chapter 1 25.117 Modification of station license.Without arguing the case yet again, this will clearly depend on the FCC commissioners' determination of the "unique and overriding public interest". Kuiper enthusiasts will probably think that competition constitutes "unique and overriding". Kuiper skeptics will probably think that Kuiper is neither unique nor overriding.
Any application for modification of authorization to extend a required date of completion, as set forth in § 25.133 for earth station authorizations or § 25.164 for space stations, or included as a condition of any earth station or space station authorization, must include a verified statement from the applicant:
(1) That states that the additional time is required due to unforeseeable circumstances beyond the applicant's control, describes these circumstances with specificity, and justifies the precise extension period requested; or
(2) That states there are unique and overriding public interest concerns that justify an extension, identifies these interests and justifies a precise extension period.
Clearly holds in this case. We can move on.
