Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2018?

1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
1 (0.3%)
11
0 (0%)
12
2 (0.7%)
13
1 (0.3%)
14
0 (0%)
15
1 (0.3%)
16
0 (0%)
17
2 (0.7%)
18
2 (0.7%)
19
3 (1%)
20
15 (5%)
21
4 (1.3%)
22
12 (4%)
23
15 (5%)
24
39 (12.9%)
25
33 (10.9%)
26
22 (7.3%)
27
32 (10.6%)
28
28 (9.3%)
29
20 (6.6%)
30
34 (11.3%)
31
6 (2%)
32
14 (4.6%)
33
4 (1.3%)
34
1 (0.3%)
35
5 (1.7%)
36
2 (0.7%)
37
0 (0%)
38
0 (0%)
39
0 (0%)
40
1 (0.3%)
More than 40!!!
3 (1%)
None (sometimes option 42 is the right answer, but this is not one of those times)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 302

Voting closed: 01/19/2018 12:22 pm


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018  (Read 43514 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #100 on: 08/13/2018 01:06 pm »
Any idea why there appears to be a gap in launches? After Telstar 18 on 08-23 the next launch is 5 weeks later on 09-29 and then nothing with a firm date attached.

Could this be related to installing the crew access arm?

Lack of payloads being ready would be my top guess.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #101 on: 08/13/2018 09:39 pm »
Any idea why there appears to be a gap in launches? After Telstar 18 on 08-23 the next launch is 5 weeks later on 09-29 and then nothing with a firm date attached.

Could this be related to installing the crew access arm?

Lack of payloads being ready would be my top guess.

If so, IMHO, that's a great accomplishment--working through the F9 manifest backlog on both coasts.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #102 on: 08/18/2018 06:01 pm »
Any idea why there appears to be a gap in launches? After Telstar 18 on 08-23 the next launch is 5 weeks later on 09-29 and then nothing with a firm date attached.

Could this be related to installing the crew access arm?

Lack of payloads being ready would be my top guess.

If so, IMHO, that's a great accomplishment--working through the F9 manifest backlog on both coasts.
Bunching and gaps will occur. The current manifest shows a bunching of launches for Nov. It is a dependency of many items: range, pad, booster, US, and payload.

The normal steady state launch rate looks to be 18 to 20 per year. But this is without considering Starlink launches.

You are correct that the backlog is mostly disappeared. This is why you would see more bunching and gaps. At an average rate of 1.5 / month would have one month with 1 launch and the other with 2.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #103 on: 08/21/2018 05:24 pm »
Very meta comment but we are about 20 +/- votes off last years final voting total.
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Offline ZachS09

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #104 on: 12/08/2018 01:06 pm »
After GPS-III 1 launches on December 18, SpaceX will have launched 21 missions, so it's safe to say that only 1.3% of the voters on this poll were right.
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Offline gongora

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #105 on: 12/08/2018 02:04 pm »
After GPS-III 1 launches on December 18, SpaceX will have launched 21 missions, so it's safe to say that only 1.3% of the voters on this poll were right.

There's still a chance that 5% could be right.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #106 on: 12/24/2018 07:33 pm »
Well it's official. 21 is the answer.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #107 on: 12/24/2018 08:07 pm »
Well it's official. 21 is the answer.
Technically there could be a super secret unmanifested launch that gets carried out in the next 7 days. But the chances of that are... infinitesimal.

This year.

in 5 years or 10? Quite a bit higher I think.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline vigleik

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #108 on: 12/24/2018 11:49 pm »
Do I get a prize for being one of only four people to get it exactly right?

Edit: Lar says no prize. :(
« Last Edit: 12/24/2018 11:52 pm by vigleik »

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #109 on: 12/25/2018 12:09 am »
And the answer is.... (drum roll)
26
Numerically, 26.4 +/-5.2
(Best fit Gaussian mean and moment)
Pretty close to my guess of 27.
YMMV

Last year the consensus was 13.7 +/- 5.2, so the 18 launches was significantly higher. 

Once again, the consensus forms within the first few days and the first fraction of the total votes and never moves significantly.

And the answer, ... to the question, ....  of life, the universe, and everything is....
42
Divided by two

A bit lower than our consensus guess of 26.
And the pace has been pretty constant. I will post a graph of that soon.

Some day, it will be just 42. Divided by 1.  But not now
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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