Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 993104 times)

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #120 on: 10/18/2017 04:36 pm »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #121 on: 10/19/2017 12:17 pm »
So Iridium NEXT-4 now NET Dec 22 on a flight proven booster (possibly 1036.2 but not confirmed):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/10/iridium-4-flight-proven-falcon-9-rtls-vandenberg-delayed/

Offline Rebel44

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #122 on: 10/19/2017 08:15 pm »
SpaceX has won a contract to launch the Jason-CS ocean science mission (aka Sentinel-6A) on an Falcon 9 in Nov 2020

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/921106460964196352
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-sentinel-6a-mission

Offline dror

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #123 on: 10/19/2017 08:33 pm »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.

Yes, that's what it says.
Google translate, like Jim, is usually right.
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #124 on: 10/20/2017 08:48 pm »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #125 on: 10/20/2017 09:03 pm »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #126 on: 10/20/2017 10:38 pm »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.

Ah, I see the problem, my RSS feed registered them being granted today. I remember that now, CRS-13 was originally Nov 28 so it's the only logical answer.

Offline jfallen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #127 on: 10/24/2017 12:22 pm »
Looking at the schedule, there is a window at the end of December where SpaceX could have a rocket vertical on all three pads at the same time.    Iridium on SLC-4E, Hispasat on SLC-40, and FH on LC-39A.

That would be quite a Christmas card for Elon to send out.

Offline Salo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #128 on: 10/25/2017 04:56 pm »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #129 on: 10/25/2017 11:03 pm »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 11:05 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #130 on: 10/25/2017 11:14 pm »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.

Watched the full livestream, it's available here now. Also wrote a brief summary of the SpaceX bits.

Per the manifest thread-relevant question, Ms. Cooper was gently pushed for a timeline and said that limited service would start once 800 or so satellites were launched, and that the timeframe for that was 2020-2021. So between 24-36 months to launch ~800, 2024 to launch all ~4000.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 11:15 pm by vaporcobra »

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #131 on: 10/26/2017 05:10 am »
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.

Offline yokem55

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #132 on: 10/26/2017 06:14 am »
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.
It will help having 2 East coast pads. If they can launch from each twice a month, that's 4 flights of capacity per month. The bigger issues will be upper stages, payload dispensers, payload processing, completed satellites, fairings, and after deployment checkout and commissioning. Getting that process and it routine down will take a while to ramp up as well.

Offline Kenp51d

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #133 on: 10/26/2017 02:44 pm »
Does Halthrone have or will have the ability to produce that number of upper stages + pluss the number required for paying rides?
If BFR hits schedule my question maybe a bit mute.

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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #134 on: 10/26/2017 03:00 pm »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #135 on: 10/26/2017 04:18 pm »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
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Offline cppetrie

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #136 on: 10/26/2017 04:23 pm »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
I think current speculation is that they are co-manifested with PAZ at the end of January.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.40
Edit: added link to PAZ discussion thread
« Last Edit: 10/26/2017 04:26 pm by cppetrie »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #137 on: 10/27/2017 03:48 am »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.
No, but this does answer questions about whether SpaceX's manifest in 2019 will be full (30 flights or more) or not.

I think it means that they're planning to launch a whole bunch of satellites, so they at least think they'll be full.
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Offline SmallKing

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #138 on: 10/28/2017 04:56 am »
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #139 on: 10/28/2017 12:11 pm »
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/

Yes, that happened quite a while ago.

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