Unfortunately refined PGM materials are not available on Mars. Initially it will be hard enough to find and process sufficient water let alone start a Platinum mine and crush and process millions of tons of rock.
Quote from: sanman on 12/02/2018 07:50 pmAnd yet it's been pointed out that the market for any precious item including platinum group metals would crash if a large supply were suddenly introduced. Suppose you hauled a big asteroid filled with platinum back to Earth - then it suddenly wouldn't be such a rare and precious material anymore, and thus its value would plunge. How do you create a sustainable business model out of that?Do the same as De Beers. Fill warehouses with the stuff and sell it at a trickle.
And yet it's been pointed out that the market for any precious item including platinum group metals would crash if a large supply were suddenly introduced. Suppose you hauled a big asteroid filled with platinum back to Earth - then it suddenly wouldn't be such a rare and precious material anymore, and thus its value would plunge. How do you create a sustainable business model out of that?
Quote from: Yaotzin on 12/03/2018 08:00 pm Obviously a Mars research base would become a colony because EM/USA/whoever decided to build a colony, Who is "whoever" and why would they invest in a colony if, as you admit, there is no economic case? If you are relying on government machinations (via the tax dollars of its citizens) to subsidize a colony, you don't have a great plan, gang. It is (and should) only going to happen with a free market.
Obviously a Mars research base would become a colony because EM/USA/whoever decided to build a colony,
My point at the moment is fairly narrow - there is no inevitable or even likely connection between a scientific outpost and a colony. The Antarctic outposts are just one line of relevant evidence. If the colony proponents want to deny this, they need to show a detailed plan on how this transition takes place through realistic mechanisms. All I'm getting is hand-waving.
Unoxidized nickel-iron meteorites exist just laying on the surface of Mars. And there are likely more just below the surface that could be located by a big metal detector. Some of them probably contain high concentrations of PGMs (where, and how much, is certainly a good question). You wouldn't mine ore like on Earth because you shouldn't need to, and because it would be rather difficult.
PGMs aren't just pretty. They have many, many industrial uses and those uses would skyrocket if the materials were cheaper.
Quote from: envy887 on 12/03/2018 09:38 pmUnoxidized nickel-iron meteorites exist just laying on the surface of Mars. And there are likely more just below the surface that could be located by a big metal detector. Some of them probably contain high concentrations of PGMs (where, and how much, is certainly a good question). You wouldn't mine ore like on Earth because you shouldn't need to, and because it would be rather difficult.How many of those exist? Could you build a colony with them, and how far out would you have to venture to find them?Unlike a vein of ore that can be quantified, relying on randomly finding meteorites with the right compositions does not sound like a predictable way to provide resources for a growing colony.
QuotePGMs aren't just pretty. They have many, many industrial uses and those uses would skyrocket if the materials were cheaper.What materials will need to be transported from Earth, and in what quantities, in order to refine 1mT of platinum group metals?Or would it be cheaper to just ship refined platinum group metals to Mars?
I rather doubt that "colony as a profitable mining camp" is likely to happen near term. A colony is likely to be a money sink for a long time, but that doesn't mean they can't send things back to offset part of the costs.
...But if a colony is going to keep growing, its going to need metal extraction and refining equipment eventually anyway.
For instance, McMurdo Station in Antarctica is not going to magically become a colony if we just give it a few more decades. Scientists and support staff spend up to 18 months, including one winter season, then leave. Today it is fairly rare for anyone to spend even two winters there. There are zero permanent residents.
1) Build a research base.2) Expand it to a colony.
This has been discussed before. Permanent residents are limited (if not outright banned) in Antarctica by international treaty.
We aren't really talking about the logistics of expanding the buildings or facilities of a small base to accommodate a colony (although that has its own problems). The point is that there are no market forces that would cause a research base to expand in to a colony. It is going to take more than amazing people-power, wishful thinking, and rich uncle Elon to make a colony happen. There needs to be good reasons...real good reasons...for people to be interested in living in an underground tin can under a cold desert. Things that can only be done on Mars and not on earth, and these have to be things that machines can't do (sorry, exo-miners). Until you can come up with concrete reasons, you don't have a case for a colony.
Even Elon and Zubrin seem to at least realize that this is a real problem. They have suggested that intellectual property licensing might be a way to make a Mars colony profitable. But this, of course, is a chicken or egg problem. Even if we buy the highly dubious idea that intellectual property could be *that* profitable somewhere down the line, we still have to have a reason for people to want to go to Mars to live in the first place.
Quote from: DaveJes1979 on 12/05/2018 05:52 pmWe aren't really talking about the logistics of expanding the buildings or facilities of a small base to accommodate a colony (although that has its own problems). The point is that there are no market forces that would cause a research base to expand in to a colony. It is going to take more than amazing people-power, wishful thinking, and rich uncle Elon to make a colony happen. There needs to be good reasons...real good reasons...for people to be interested in living in an underground tin can under a cold desert. Things that can only be done on Mars and not on earth, and these have to be things that machines can't do (sorry, exo-miners). Until you can come up with concrete reasons, you don't have a case for a colony.You seem to insist that a colony can only look like a market driven investment funded enterprise. I don't understand why; no one has ever said this will happen unless we discover unobtanium there. The idea is more like a library or university; built by a rich benefactor, along with a fund to help with ongoing costs. And for the same reason: there's no economic case for them (please don't get me started on the abomination that is for-profit universities).As reasons to go; at first it would be temporary and a pretty fascinating job, so there'd be plenty of interest. Longer term would depend on QoL that's been built up which is difficult to predict. Worst case, pay people to go. We don't live in a post scarcity society; you can find lots of people who will do anything for a little money.So yes, seriously, a rich enough uncle Elon is the only requirement. We can discuss how rich he'd have to be for x size colony, but money is really all it takes.QuoteEven Elon and Zubrin seem to at least realize that this is a real problem. They have suggested that intellectual property licensing might be a way to make a Mars colony profitable. But this, of course, is a chicken or egg problem. Even if we buy the highly dubious idea that intellectual property could be *that* profitable somewhere down the line, we still have to have a reason for people to want to go to Mars to live in the first place.IP or any other export would be a way of partially funding the colony. It is not required; a colony could be built with zero exports*. Exports make it more financially viable, they increase the size of the colony you can afford etc. It's 'just' money, which can come from any source.*in the colloquial sense, in the accounting sense they're there of course.
A very good point, I do wonder how rich Elon Musk might become if Tesla and SpaceX continue to grow at their current rate for another decade or two (obviously not a given by any stretch but who knows). If a large enough amount of money could be gathered to start the ball rolling, perhaps a Mars colony is possible. IP /rocks / tourists would provide some income and if the flight costs could be driven down enough it might just work.
Love all this back and forth about Mars Colonies, mir=grating technology and manufacturing.I'm interested in what type of cam indexing and CNC are used in the aeronautical space.Thanks for sharing any other reads. {snip}
Love all this back and forth about Mars Colonies, mir=grating technology and manufacturing.I'm interested in what type of cam indexing and CNC are used in the aeronautical space.