Orion as a CRV

[imcub]

Given plenty of money, taking all the time they need to work out the bugs in between failed flights ... after nearly 4 years of trying (Nov 05-Sept 08) they have yet to reach orbit with a small and relatively simple launcher (minimal engines, values, etc).  Expecting them to be able to safely launch and recover a large manned spacecraft in just over three years (end of 2011), a huge step in capability ... is simply not deemed to be very realistic.  Elon is not Kelly Johnson and SpaceX is not the Skunkworks.  If manned spaceflight were easy, there would be more than three nations on this planet with the capacity to launch and recover manned spacecraft. 

8-5 = 3. I wouldn't say "plenty of money" either, esepcially in the context of how much money Ares I seems to be costing. But the point is valid. They haven't done it until they've done it. On the other hand, Kelly Johnson is dead, and so are Von Braun and Korolev. Two of the three nations able to conduct manned spacecraft are doing so with assets developed back when those men were still alive, and the third nation is doing so with a leg up from one of the others. I won't even grant that the US and Russia can develop a new manned spacecraft anymore. Not until I see Orion fly. And Russia isn't even really trying. NASA doesn't get cut any more slack than Musk until we're back on the Moon. Griffin isn't Kelly Johnson either, come to think of it.

Crikey ... OK, make that nearly 3 years ... good thing I normally have computers to check my math ...

By plenty of money... I am referring to making Falcon I a success ...  and I have not heard that Elon has stated that money has become an issue.

Personally, I have complete confidence the US can develop a new manned spacecraft ... I haven't read anything about Team Orion not being up to the task.  A new launcher ... that's a different subject ...

But hopefully William, NASA will prove us all wrong and take care of that frustration a lot of us have been feeling for quite some time.

[JayP]

Elon is not Kelly Johnson and SpaceX is not the Skunkworks

Thats not true. Kelly and his team had their fair share of failures as well, They just were not live on the internet when they happened. I'm not saying that they can develope a Dragon CRV in the time frame given even if they get ahold of most of the venture capital in the world, but they are at least out there building and trying something and not just whining about how the system is screwed up. That is something that verry few other people, and almost no one on these fourums, can claim.

[Herb Schaltegger]

Elon is not Kelly Johnson and SpaceX is not the Skunkworks

Thats not true. Kelly and his team had their fair share of failures as well, They just were not live on the internet when they happened. I'm not saying that they can develope a Dragon CRV in the time frame given even if they get ahold of most of the venture capital in the world, but they are at least out there building and trying something and not just whining about how the system is screwed up. That is something that verry few other people, and almost no one on these fourums, can claim.

Attempting to do a difficult task by tossing out almost five decades of experience with procedures and methods (e.g., all that difficult, complicated systems engineering stuff that costs so much money) is not something that everyone thinks is all that smart.

None of which has much to do with Orion as a CRV, by the way.