Author Topic: ULA General Discussion Thread  (Read 449418 times)

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #40 on: 09/28/2019 10:38 am »
{snip}
I'm still thinking about what to include so if any of you have any suggestions, I'm open to them.

Coming soon:
* Cargo to LOP-G.
* Lunar lander <x> stage.

Online TorenAltair

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #41 on: 09/28/2019 01:50 pm »
{snip}
I'm still thinking about what to include so if any of you have any suggestions, I'm open to them.

Delta III was Boeing, not ULA. The same is with Starliner. If you want to include them, then imo you should include the Titan rockets for example as well.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #42 on: 09/30/2019 10:12 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1178783460355383298

Quote
On an Air Force media call: Confirming there will be five more Delta IV Heavy missions, with the final one in 2024. In addition to manufacturing costs, United Launch Alliance will receive a $1.18 billion award to support those five launches. It's not an ELC, Air Force says.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1178785228250341376

Quote
Per Col. Robert Bongiovi there are two key differences between this award and former ELC. The funds for final five Delta IV Heavy missions are only for those five missions, and it is "firm fixed price" whereas ELC was cost-plus contracting.

Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1178793075482808320

Quote
SpaceNews did the math. Average *total* cost is $460 million per launch.
« Last Edit: 09/30/2019 10:15 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline gongora

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #43 on: 09/30/2019 10:48 pm »
This contract is to keep two launch complexes running for the next 4-5 years and launch 5 missions from them.  The launch vehicles had already been procured.  It's not at all unexpected.

Offline woods170

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #44 on: 10/01/2019 12:51 pm »
Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1178793075482808320

Quote
SpaceNews did the math. Average *total* cost is $460 million per launch.

Which fits nicely with industry concensus that a single NSS launch of Delta IV Heavy has a price tag of upwards of $400 million.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #45 on: 10/01/2019 07:52 pm »
This contract is to keep two launch complexes running for the next 4-5 years and launch 5 missions from them.  The launch vehicles had already been procured.  It's not at all unexpected.

Honest pricing would include that in the launch contract. That’s how everyone else does it.

The ELC lives on. Cost plus or fixed price, doesn’t matter.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #46 on: 10/01/2019 08:10 pm »
This contract is to keep two launch complexes running for the next 4-5 years and launch 5 missions from them.  The launch vehicles had already been procured.  It's not at all unexpected.

Honest pricing would include that in the launch contract. That’s how everyone else does it.

The ELC lives on. Cost plus or fixed price, doesn’t matter.
It is finishing out DIVH. The 2 SLC's (includes never used 37A) will be handed over to USAF at the end likely with a final contract to wind down and mothball the pads, control centers, and processing facilities. Will find out in a few years if ELC continues with Atlas-V and begins with Vulcan.

Offline gongora

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #47 on: 10/01/2019 09:34 pm »
And the similar contract for the three Atlas V flights...
Quote
United Launch Services, Centennial, Colorado, has been awarded a $98,549,235 firm-fixed-price contract for Atlas V Completion launch services.  This contract provides launch service completion for three National Security Space Launch Atlas V missions (two Air Force and one National Reconnaissance Office) previously ordered under contract FA8811-13-C-0003.  Work will be performed at Centennial, Colorado; Decatur, Alabama; and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, and is expected to be completed by Nov. 30, 2020.  This award is the result of a sole source acquisition.  Fiscal 2019 and 2020 procurement funds are being obligated at the time of award.  The Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California, is the contracting activity (FA8811-20-C-0001).

Offline Lars-J

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #48 on: 10/02/2019 01:03 am »
A “completion contract”? Lol. I can’t wait for this contracting shell game come to an end.

Offline woods170

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #49 on: 10/02/2019 07:24 am »
Honest pricing would include that in the launch contract. That’s how everyone else does it.


The ELC lives on. Cost plus or fixed price, doesn’t matter.

This contract is to keep two launch complexes running for the next 4-5 years and launch 5 missions from them.  The launch vehicles had already been procured.  It's not at all unexpected.

Honest pricing would include that in the launch contract. That’s how everyone else does it.

The ELC lives on. Cost plus or fixed price, doesn’t matter.
It is finishing out DIVH. The 2 SLC's (includes never used 37A) will be handed over to USAF at the end likely with a final contract to wind down and mothball the pads, control centers, and processing facilities. Will find out in a few years if ELC continues with Atlas-V and begins with Vulcan.

Emphasis mine.
ELC is gone, per the law. From the Spacenews article:

Quote from: Sandra Erwin
The award to ULA also marks the end of the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Launch Capability (ELC) arrangement. The ELC started in 2013 and supported both Delta 4 and Atlas 5 launches. ELC was sized to support up to eight national security space launches per year and maintain four launch pads at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. The Phase 1 ELC was a cost-reimbursable contract. The Air Force said 44 missions were launched using the Phase 1 ELC.

The 2016 National Defense Authorization Act directed the Air Force to end the ELC contract in 2019 and phase out use of the Russian RD-180 engine that powers Atlas 5.
« Last Edit: 10/02/2019 07:33 am by woods170 »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #50 on: 10/04/2019 02:25 am »
The ELC lives on. Cost plus or fixed price, doesn’t matter.

Emphasis mine.
ELC is gone, per the law. From the Spacenews article:

I certainly hope so. But as long as ULA receives multiple contracts for the same missions (and contracts for “maintaining readiness”), the ELC will live on in spirit even if they call it something else.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #51 on: 10/27/2019 07:22 pm »
twitter.com/spacesfuture/status/1188476148994306055

Quote
Expecting a Dozen or More launches from ULA next year, Ofcourse the Mighty Atlas shall lift Starliners CFT and CTS-1 to the ISS,  guide Mars 2020 to land on Jezero Crater and bring SolO to the Heliosphere at 0.28AU Perihelion! Go Atlas! Go Centaur!

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1188497396759695366

Quote
Yup.  Big year.  We have 30 cores in the factory right now.  A record for us.  Decatur is hopping!
« Last Edit: 10/27/2019 07:22 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #52 on: 11/21/2019 12:47 pm »
CNBC interview with Tory.


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/13/the-western-worlds-biggest-rocket-factory.html

Nothing really new here but does discuss, common  supplier/competior relationships in industry. If ULA wins DOD launch contract then so do Blue and NGIS as they will still profit by selling ULA engines, even if they miss out on launch contracts.

Very confident that ULA will be one of two DOD launch providers.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #53 on: 11/22/2019 04:09 am »
Hmm, ACES timeline appears to be moving to the right ...

Quote
ULA gets vague on Vulcan upgrade timeline
by Caleb Henry — November 20, 2019

BREMEN, Germany — As United Launch Alliance prepares for the maiden flight of its Vulcan Centaur rocket, the company no longer has a clear timeline for a major second-stage upgrade.

https://spacenews.com/ula-gets-vague-on-vulcan-upgrade-timeline/

Offline darkmelmet

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #54 on: 11/26/2019 07:52 am »
CNBC interview with Tory.


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/13/the-western-worlds-biggest-rocket-factory.html

Nothing really new here but does discuss, common  supplier/competior relationships in industry. If ULA wins DOD launch contract then so do Blue and NGIS as they will still profit by selling ULA engines, even if they miss out on launch contracts.

Very confident that ULA will be one of two DOD launch providers.

More importantly he said again, that he sees flat or declining market for the next 5 to 8 years, maybe 10. That mean to me, that he don't believe that LEO mega constellation will be economically successful. Did he in some past interviews explain why.   
« Last Edit: 11/26/2019 07:53 am by darkmelmet »

Offline Newton_V

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #55 on: 11/26/2019 03:44 pm »
CNBC interview with Tory.


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/13/the-western-worlds-biggest-rocket-factory.html

Nothing really new here but does discuss, common  supplier/competior relationships in industry. If ULA wins DOD launch contract then so do Blue and NGIS as they will still profit by selling ULA engines, even if they miss out on launch contracts.

Very confident that ULA will be one of two DOD launch providers.

More importantly he said again, that he sees flat or declining market for the next 5 to 8 years, maybe 10. That mean to me, that he don't believe that LEO mega constellation will be economically successful. Did he in some past interviews explain why.   
Are you asking if he explained why you came to your conclusion?  Why don't you ask him on twitter, or if you don't have an account, have somebody ask him for you.

Offline GWH

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #56 on: 11/26/2019 03:48 pm »
More importantly he said again, that he sees flat or declining market for the next 5 to 8 years, maybe 10. That mean to me, that he don't believe that LEO mega constellation will be economically successful. Did he in some past interviews explain why.   

Bias from past experiences partly. The EELV program got burned badly when the 1st generation of internet constellations never materialized and thus their market predictions collapsed. He has stated this quite a few times in interviews.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #57 on: 11/26/2019 05:16 pm »
CNBC interview with Tory.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/13/the-western-worlds-biggest-rocket-factory.html

Nothing really new here but does discuss, common  supplier/competior relationships in industry. If ULA wins DOD launch contract then so do Blue and NGIS as they will still profit by selling ULA engines, even if they miss out on launch contracts.

Very confident that ULA will be one of two DOD launch providers.

More importantly he said again, that he sees flat or declining market for the next 5 to 8 years, maybe 10. That mean to me, that he don't believe that LEO mega constellation will be economically successful. Did he in some past interviews explain why.   

An important distinction between expendable rocket companies and reusable rocket companies is that reusable rocket companies think that by lowering the cost to put payloads into space that they can EXPAND the launch market. But it's clear here that Tory Bruno is resigned to the fact that expendable rocket companies may have to live with a declining market.

One other point is that Bruno said they have 30 cores "in flow right now, 30 rockets". Having been a factory scheduling manager I'm hoping that this is just PR, because none of the ULA rockets takes 2 years to build, and he stated that they plan to fly about one per month over the next two years, which means 2.5 years worth of rockets in production.

Professionally I know that inventory is a financial liability, not an asset. But I also know they have had contracts with the USAF that have allowed them to build cores in advance. But the bottom line is that anything you are building that you can't immediate turn into revenue is a waste of company resources - or waste of taxpayer money.

Just wanted to point that out. Especially because SpaceX just finished flying the SAME 1st stage for the 4th time. Talk about fiscal efficiency!
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline spacenut

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #58 on: 11/26/2019 05:20 pm »
ULA can save themselves, if they develop a 5m or 5.5m ACES upper stage, that can be refueled in space for a robust distributed launch scheme.  This is especially true if the moon centric work gets stared by NASA.  If they don't, they may be left behind by SpaceX and Blue Origin. 

ACES can be used for a lunar lander, fuel depot, and space tug.  Even if they don't develop a reusable booster. 

Offline Newton_V

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Re: ULA General Discussion Thread
« Reply #59 on: 11/26/2019 05:30 pm »
CNBC interview with Tory.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/13/the-western-worlds-biggest-rocket-factory.html

Nothing really new here but does discuss, common  supplier/competior relationships in industry. If ULA wins DOD launch contract then so do Blue and NGIS as they will still profit by selling ULA engines, even if they miss out on launch contracts.

Very confident that ULA will be one of two DOD launch providers.

More importantly he said again, that he sees flat or declining market for the next 5 to 8 years, maybe 10. That mean to me, that he don't believe that LEO mega constellation will be economically successful. Did he in some past interviews explain why.   

An important distinction between expendable rocket companies and reusable rocket companies is that reusable rocket companies think that by lowering the cost to put payloads into space that they can EXPAND the launch market. But it's clear here that Tory Bruno is resigned to the fact that expendable rocket companies may have to live with a declining market.

One other point is that Bruno said they have 30 cores "in flow right now, 30 rockets". Having been a factory scheduling manager I'm hoping that this is just PR, because none of the ULA rockets takes 2 years to build, and he stated that they plan to fly about one per month over the next two years, which means 2.5 years worth of rockets in production.

Professionally I know that inventory is a financial liability, not an asset. But I also know they have had contracts with the USAF that have allowed them to build cores in advance. But the bottom line is that anything you are building that you can't immediate turn into revenue is a waste of company resources - or waste of taxpayer money.

Just wanted to point that out. Especially because SpaceX just finished flying the SAME 1st stage for the 4th time. Talk about fiscal efficiency!
These aren't whitetail vehicles, so your logic is not applicable/wrong.   It's about minimizing the production overlap between 3 launch vehicles. 

 

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