WASHINGTON — As NASA pushes ahead with a crewed lunar landing on the Artemis 3 mission in September 2026, the agency’s own analysis estimates a nearly one-in-three chance the lander will be at least a year and a half late.That assessment came from a confirmation review for the Human Landing System (HLS) Initial Capability project, which is supporting the development of SpaceX’s Starship lunar lander that will be used on Artemis 3. The confirmation review, known in agency parlance as Key Decision Point (KDP) C, sets cost and schedule commitments for NASA projects.The confirmation review, which took place in December 2023, set a schedule baseline of February 2028 for that project at a 70% joint confidence level. That means there is a 70% chance that Starship will be ready for a lunar landing — a milestone formally known as lunar orbit checkout review — by February 2028.“The joint cost and schedule confidence level is an integrated analysis of a project’s cost, schedule, risk, and uncertainty, which indicates a project’s likelihood of meeting a given set of cost and schedule targets,” stated the Government Accountability Office in a June 20 report assessing major NASA programs.That date is nearly a year and a half after NASA’s current schedule of September 2026 for Artemis 3. The 70% joint confidence level also means that the agency believes there is a 30% chance that the Starship lander will not be ready until after February 2028.
Jonathan McDowell @planet4589LAUNCH of Firefly Alpha FLTA005 from Vandenberg at 0404 UTC Jul 4
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Turksat 6A communication satellite for Turkey from pad 40 on July 9 around 5:19-9 p.m. EDT. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40. A Falcon 9 will launch the Polaris Dawn spaceflight participant mission on July 31. A Falcon 9 will launch the Cygnus NG-21 resupply mission to the International Space Station on August 3 around 10 a.m. EDT. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch.
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Turksat 6A communication satellite for Turkey from pad 40 on July 8 around 5:20-9 p.m. EDT. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40. A Falcon 9 will launch the Polaris Dawn spaceflight participant mission on July 31. A Falcon 9 will launch the Cygnus NG-21 resupply mission to the International Space Station on August 3 around 10 a.m. EDT. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch.
The zones above haven't changed, but https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp is reporting another one day delay:SPACEX STARLINK 9-3, VANDENBURG SFB, CAPRIMARY: 07/09/24 0246Z-0717ZBACKUPS: 07/10/24 0223Z-0654Z 07/11/24 0200Z-0631Z 07/12/24 0137Z-0608Z 07/13/24 0113Z-0544Z
Quote from: PM3 on 07/04/2024 07:26 amQuote from: Salo on 07/04/2024 12:16 amNET October 15 - Elytra Mission 1: NRO-X: FANTM Ride, Undisclosed US Government primary payloads, commercial rideshare payloads - Firefly Alpha (FLTA006) - Vandenberg SLC-2WSkyrocket.de also lists Elytra M1 (FANTM-RiDE) as the next Firefly launch:https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau/firefly.htmMore on Elytra M1:NRO to conduct responsive space mission with Firefly and XtentiIs this NRO mission executed by Lockheed Martin? Or will it be on a later launch, not FLTA006?QuoteFirefly Alpha flights 6 and 7 are coming up soon. Flight 6 is a commercial mission for Lockheed Martin, and Flight 7 is the first Elytra flight for the NRO. Elytra is a kind of space tug.Source : https://twitter.com/Bubbinski/status/1808730256536461451
Quote from: Salo on 07/04/2024 12:16 amNET October 15 - Elytra Mission 1: NRO-X: FANTM Ride, Undisclosed US Government primary payloads, commercial rideshare payloads - Firefly Alpha (FLTA006) - Vandenberg SLC-2WSkyrocket.de also lists Elytra M1 (FANTM-RiDE) as the next Firefly launch:https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau/firefly.htmMore on Elytra M1:NRO to conduct responsive space mission with Firefly and XtentiIs this NRO mission executed by Lockheed Martin? Or will it be on a later launch, not FLTA006?
NET October 15 - Elytra Mission 1: NRO-X: FANTM Ride, Undisclosed US Government primary payloads, commercial rideshare payloads - Firefly Alpha (FLTA006) - Vandenberg SLC-2W
Firefly Alpha flights 6 and 7 are coming up soon. Flight 6 is a commercial mission for Lockheed Martin, and Flight 7 is the first Elytra flight for the NRO. Elytra is a kind of space tug.
Cross-post:Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/05/2024 01:29 pmhttps://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1798342399057355186QuoteBig news ahead for the Firefly team. We're proud to continue our partnership with @LockheedMartin, launching 25 missions on our Alpha rocket through 2029. Under the new agreement, the next Lockheed Martin mission will fly on Alpha FLTA006 later this year.https://fireflyspace.com/news/firefly-aerospace-announces-multi-launch-agreement-with-lockheed-martin-for-25-alpha-launches/QuoteJune 5, 2024Firefly Aerospace Announces Multi-Launch Agreement with Lockheed Martin for 25 Alpha LaunchesCedar Park, Texas, June 5, 2024 – Firefly Aerospace, Inc., an end-to-end space transportation company, today announced it signed a multi-launch agreement with Lockheed Martin for 25 launches on Firefly’s Alpha rocket through 2029. This agreement commits Lockheed Martin to 15 launch reservations and 10 optional launches.“Firefly is honored to continue this partnership with Lockheed Martin and appreciates their confidence in our rapid launch services to support their critical missions for years to come,” said Bill Weber, CEO of Firefly Aerospace. “The Firefly team has scaled up Alpha production and testing and significantly streamlined our launch operations to fly Alpha more frequently and responsively. This allows us to continue delivering the one metric ton rocket the industry is demanding.”Under the agreement, Alpha will launch Lockheed Martin spacecraft into low-Earth orbit from Firefly’s facilities on the west and east coast. The first mission will launch on Alpha flight 6 (FLTA006) from Firefly’s SLC-2 launch site at the Vandenberg Space Force Base later this year. The mission will be conducted as another responsive space operation that includes transporting the payload fairing to the launch pad, mating it to Firefly’s Alpha rocket, and completing final launch operations within hours of the scheduled liftoff.“Our customers have told us they need rapid advancement of new mission capabilities,” said Bob Behnken, Director, Ignite Technology Acceleration at Lockheed Martin Space. “This agreement with Firefly further diversifies our access to space, allowing us to continue quickly flight demonstrating the cutting-edge technology we are developing for them, as well as enabling our continued exploration of tactical and responsive space solutions.”Built with lightweight carbon composites and patented propulsion technologies, Firefly’s Alpha rocket provides low-cost launch services for satellites up to 1,030 kg and supports the growing demand for responsive space missions when and where customers need to fly.My comment: Might some payload or payloads previously mentioned for FLTA007 rideshare this launch?
https://twitter.com/firefly_space/status/1798342399057355186QuoteBig news ahead for the Firefly team. We're proud to continue our partnership with @LockheedMartin, launching 25 missions on our Alpha rocket through 2029. Under the new agreement, the next Lockheed Martin mission will fly on Alpha FLTA006 later this year.https://fireflyspace.com/news/firefly-aerospace-announces-multi-launch-agreement-with-lockheed-martin-for-25-alpha-launches/QuoteJune 5, 2024Firefly Aerospace Announces Multi-Launch Agreement with Lockheed Martin for 25 Alpha LaunchesCedar Park, Texas, June 5, 2024 – Firefly Aerospace, Inc., an end-to-end space transportation company, today announced it signed a multi-launch agreement with Lockheed Martin for 25 launches on Firefly’s Alpha rocket through 2029. This agreement commits Lockheed Martin to 15 launch reservations and 10 optional launches.“Firefly is honored to continue this partnership with Lockheed Martin and appreciates their confidence in our rapid launch services to support their critical missions for years to come,” said Bill Weber, CEO of Firefly Aerospace. “The Firefly team has scaled up Alpha production and testing and significantly streamlined our launch operations to fly Alpha more frequently and responsively. This allows us to continue delivering the one metric ton rocket the industry is demanding.”Under the agreement, Alpha will launch Lockheed Martin spacecraft into low-Earth orbit from Firefly’s facilities on the west and east coast. The first mission will launch on Alpha flight 6 (FLTA006) from Firefly’s SLC-2 launch site at the Vandenberg Space Force Base later this year. The mission will be conducted as another responsive space operation that includes transporting the payload fairing to the launch pad, mating it to Firefly’s Alpha rocket, and completing final launch operations within hours of the scheduled liftoff.“Our customers have told us they need rapid advancement of new mission capabilities,” said Bob Behnken, Director, Ignite Technology Acceleration at Lockheed Martin Space. “This agreement with Firefly further diversifies our access to space, allowing us to continue quickly flight demonstrating the cutting-edge technology we are developing for them, as well as enabling our continued exploration of tactical and responsive space solutions.”Built with lightweight carbon composites and patented propulsion technologies, Firefly’s Alpha rocket provides low-cost launch services for satellites up to 1,030 kg and supports the growing demand for responsive space missions when and where customers need to fly.
Big news ahead for the Firefly team. We're proud to continue our partnership with @LockheedMartin, launching 25 missions on our Alpha rocket through 2029. Under the new agreement, the next Lockheed Martin mission will fly on Alpha FLTA006 later this year.
June 5, 2024Firefly Aerospace Announces Multi-Launch Agreement with Lockheed Martin for 25 Alpha LaunchesCedar Park, Texas, June 5, 2024 – Firefly Aerospace, Inc., an end-to-end space transportation company, today announced it signed a multi-launch agreement with Lockheed Martin for 25 launches on Firefly’s Alpha rocket through 2029. This agreement commits Lockheed Martin to 15 launch reservations and 10 optional launches.“Firefly is honored to continue this partnership with Lockheed Martin and appreciates their confidence in our rapid launch services to support their critical missions for years to come,” said Bill Weber, CEO of Firefly Aerospace. “The Firefly team has scaled up Alpha production and testing and significantly streamlined our launch operations to fly Alpha more frequently and responsively. This allows us to continue delivering the one metric ton rocket the industry is demanding.”Under the agreement, Alpha will launch Lockheed Martin spacecraft into low-Earth orbit from Firefly’s facilities on the west and east coast. The first mission will launch on Alpha flight 6 (FLTA006) from Firefly’s SLC-2 launch site at the Vandenberg Space Force Base later this year. The mission will be conducted as another responsive space operation that includes transporting the payload fairing to the launch pad, mating it to Firefly’s Alpha rocket, and completing final launch operations within hours of the scheduled liftoff.“Our customers have told us they need rapid advancement of new mission capabilities,” said Bob Behnken, Director, Ignite Technology Acceleration at Lockheed Martin Space. “This agreement with Firefly further diversifies our access to space, allowing us to continue quickly flight demonstrating the cutting-edge technology we are developing for them, as well as enabling our continued exploration of tactical and responsive space solutions.”Built with lightweight carbon composites and patented propulsion technologies, Firefly’s Alpha rocket provides low-cost launch services for satellites up to 1,030 kg and supports the growing demand for responsive space missions when and where customers need to fly.
Lockheed Martin and Firefly Aerospace, Inc., announced on June 5, 2024 that they have signed a multi-launch agreement for up to 25 launches on Firefly’s Alpha rocket through 2029. This agreement commits Lockheed Martin to 15 launch reservations and 10 optional launches.Under the agreement, Alpha will launch a variety of future Lockheed Martin spacecraft, including new payload technologies, into low-Earth orbit from Firefly’s facilities on the west and east coast....The first mission will launch on Alpha flight 6 (FLTA006) from Firefly’s SLC-2 launch site at the Vandenberg Space Force Base later this year.
Lockheed Martin Demo 1Launch TimeNET 3rd Quarter, 2024
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Turksat 6A communication satellite for Turkey from pad 40 on July 8 at 5:21-9:13 p.m. EDT. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40. A Falcon 9 will launch the Polaris Dawn spaceflight participant mission on July 31. A Falcon 9 will launch the Cygnus NG-21 resupply mission to the International Space Station on August 3 around 10 a.m. EDT. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch.
UPDATED JULY 7, 2024...FALCON 9The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Turksat 6A communication satellite for Turkey from pad 40 on July 8 at 5:21-9:13 p.m. EDT. A Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on July 12 at 4:20-8:20 a.m. EDT. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40. A Falcon 9 will launch the Polaris Dawn spaceflight participant mission on July 31. A Falcon 9 will launch the Cygnus NG-21 resupply mission to the International Space Station on August 3 around 10 a.m. EDT. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch.
NGA Rocket Launching notice.Primary launch window is expected to be 08:20-12:20 UTC.Quote from: NGA070535Z JUL 24NAVAREA IV 788/24(11,26).WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.FLORIDA.1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 120820Z TO 121250Z JUL, ALTERNATE 130758Z TO 131228Z, 140735Z TO 141205Z, 150713Z TO 151143Z, 160651Z TO 161121Z, 170628Z TO 171058Z AND 180606Z TO 181036Z JUL IN AREAS BOUND BY: A. 28-39.06N 080-37.73W, 28-53.00N 080-21.00W, 28-48.00N 080-15.00W, 28-35.00N 080-26.00W, 28-31.63N 080-33.58W. B. 32-00.00N 076-41.00W, 32-39.00N 076-21.00W, 33-08.00N 075-40.00W, 33-26.00N 075-00.00W, 33-21.00N 074-52.00W, 32-36.00N 075-02.00W, 32-09.00N 075-45.00W, 31-54.00N 076-32.00W.2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181136Z JUL 24.
070535Z JUL 24NAVAREA IV 788/24(11,26).WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.FLORIDA.1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 120820Z TO 121250Z JUL, ALTERNATE 130758Z TO 131228Z, 140735Z TO 141205Z, 150713Z TO 151143Z, 160651Z TO 161121Z, 170628Z TO 171058Z AND 180606Z TO 181036Z JUL IN AREAS BOUND BY: A. 28-39.06N 080-37.73W, 28-53.00N 080-21.00W, 28-48.00N 080-15.00W, 28-35.00N 080-26.00W, 28-31.63N 080-33.58W. B. 32-00.00N 076-41.00W, 32-39.00N 076-21.00W, 33-08.00N 075-40.00W, 33-26.00N 075-00.00W, 33-21.00N 074-52.00W, 32-36.00N 075-02.00W, 32-09.00N 075-45.00W, 31-54.00N 076-32.00W.2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181136Z JUL 24.
July 8 Falcon 9 • Türksat 6ALaunch time: 5:21 EDT (2121 UTC)Launch site: SLC-40, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida
Starlink G9-3 Pre-LaunchDerived from a pre-launch Starlink-G9-3 state vector, provided by SpaceX. SupGP data is provided for the entire stack, as well as one for a single satellite.Launch: 2024-07-09 02:46:00 UTC.Deploy: 2024-07-09 03:45:23.120 UTC.
S4S_SDA @S4S_SDALaunched objects cataloged in the last 7 days*:June 29, 20242024-121: US payloads USA 375-395 (60158-60178) were launched from the Air Force Western Test Range (AFWTR)
SpaceX is targeting Monday, July 8 for a Falcon 9 launch of the Turksat 6A mission to geosynchronous transfer orbit from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. The four-hour launch window opens at 5:21 p.m. ET. If needed, a backup opportunity is available Tuesday, July 9, with the four-hour launch window opening at 5:20 p.m. ET.A live webcast of this mission will begin about 15 minutes prior to liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX.This is the 15th flight of the first stage booster supporting this mission, which previously launched CRS-26, OneWeb Launch 16, Intelsat IS-40e, O3b mPOWER, Ovzon 3, Eutelsat 36D, and eight Starlink missions. Following stage separation, the first stage will land on the Just Read the Instructions droneship, which will be stationed in the Atlantic Ocean.
OK finally one of the 2nd stage re-entry NOTAMs got slipped to July 11 UTC so this launch is indeed delayed:R0161/24 NOTAMN Q) SCIZ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2348S09811W700A) SCIZ B) 2407110339 C) 2407170547D) JUL 11 BTN 0339-0807 JUL 12 BTN 0316-0744 JUL 13 BTN 0252-0720JUL 14 BTN 0229-0657 JUL 15 BTN 0206-0634 JUL 16 BTN 0142-0610JUL 17 BTN 0119-0547E) ZONE ...D... SECT WEST PACIFIC DUE TO RE-ENTRY SPACEX STARLINK 9-3STAGE 2 REENTRY ACTIVITY. THE AREA IS BOUNDED BY GEO COORD:1500S 10724W1500S 10441W3122S 09024W3420S 09024W1500S 10724WINSTRUCTIONS: SANTIAGO OCEANIC CONTROL 10024KHZFANS 1A EQUIPPED ACFT LOG ON SCEZINFO PROVIDED BY SPACE X OPS, USAF) SFC G) UNL
July 10/11 Falcon 9 • Starlink 9-3Launch time: Window opens at 7:00 p.m. PDT (10:00 p.m. EDT, 0200 UTC)Launch site: SLC-4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base, California
William Harwood @cbs_spacenewsF9/Türksat 6A: LIFTOFF! At 7:30pm EDT (2330 UTC)
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on July 14 at 3:35-7:35 a.m. EDT. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches. A Falcon 9 will launch the Polaris Dawn spaceflight participant mission from pad 39A on July 31. A Falcon 9 will launch the Cygnus NG-21 resupply mission to the International Space Station from pad 40 on August 3 around 10 a.m. EDT. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch.
