Poll

When will SpaceX launch its Starship Flight 6 mission?

Before the end of Oct 2024
1 (1%)
Early November 2024 (11/1-11/15)
5 (4.8%)
Late November 2024 (11/16-11/30)
29 (27.6%)
Early December 2024 (12/1-12/15)
23 (21.9%)
Late December 2024 (12/16-12/31)
24 (22.9%)
Early January 2025 (1/1-1/15)
13 (12.4%)
Late January 2025 (1/16-1/31)
6 (5.7%)
Early February 2025 (2/1-2/14)
2 (1.9%)
Late February 2025 (2/15-2/28)
1 (1%)
March 2025
0 (0%)
Q2 2025 (Apr-Jun)
0 (0%)
After Q2 2025
0 (0%)
Never
1 (1%)

Total Members Voted: 105

Voting closed: 10/21/2024 09:58 pm


Author Topic: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?  (Read 19734 times)

Offline jongoff

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Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #20 on: 10/18/2024 09:12 pm »
It's interesting to see that the bimodal distribution we had before has mellowed out a bit. Will be fun to see both a) what the final distribution looks like, and b) what ends up being correct.

~Jon

Offline Lar

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Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #21 on: 11/01/2024 03:07 pm »
I missed voting on this but (since I think they will refly essentially the same mission) I feel mid-late Nov is not unreasonable, and if it doesn't happen this year, the program is in some kind of trouble that needs to be sorted.

Wondering if they can run outer ring engine chill through the entire descent as a way to mitigate reentry heat damage, but that's a topic for another thread.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #22 on: 11/03/2024 07:23 pm »
I missed voting on this but (since I think they will refly essentially the same mission) I feel mid-late Nov is not unreasonable, and if it doesn't happen this year, the program is in some kind of trouble that needs to be sorted.

Wondering if they can run outer ring engine chill through the entire descent as a way to mitigate reentry heat damage, but that's a topic for another thread.
I thought the outer engines had separate plumbing to their own QDs on the pad. Can they be chilled  or restarted after launch?

Offline AmigaClone

Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #23 on: 11/04/2024 01:08 pm »
I missed voting on this but (since I think they will refly essentially the same mission) I feel mid-late Nov is not unreasonable, and if it doesn't happen this year, the program is in some kind of trouble that needs to be sorted.

Wondering if they can run outer ring engine chill through the entire descent as a way to mitigate reentry heat damage, but that's a topic for another thread.
I thought the outer engines had separate plumbing to their own QDs on the pad. Can they be chilled  or restarted after launch?

I believe with SH's current design of the outer ring of 20 engines can only be lit once. They might be able to be chilled, but the pumps can't be restarted after liftoff.

Offline sdsds

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Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #24 on: 11/05/2024 05:43 am »
Flight 6 prediction: Dec 7, 2024
Inter-quartile range: Nov 5, 2024 - Jan 23, 2025

I'm already 25% wrong.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #25 on: 11/19/2024 11:21 pm »
29 of 105 respondents got it right.

And yes, I'm ready to make my flight 7 prediction as soon as Jon starts the poll. Merry Christmas everyone! ;)
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Offline jongoff

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Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #26 on: 11/20/2024 12:09 am »
I was thinking about the next poll. But yeah, it's impressive that the launch happened during the most popular prediction window.

Any suggestions for this next poll? Should I do it by month? Or first and second half of the month like I did in this one?

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: When Will SpaceX Launch Starship Flight 6?
« Reply #27 on: 11/20/2024 12:38 am »
29 of 105 respondents got it right.

And yes, I'm ready to make my flight 7 prediction as soon as Jon starts the poll. Merry Christmas everyone! ;)


Flight 7 poll is live now. :-)           Merry Christmas!

I went with month intervals instead of half-month intervals this time.

~Jon

Tags: Starship SpaceX poll 
 

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