Author Topic: Predictions for 2022 (Five years from 2017)  (Read 22670 times)

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #40 on: 11/08/2017 11:16 pm »
* SpaceX is at 40 launches/year, about 15 of them for starlink.
* No more expendables, everything above 5tons to GTO bumped to Heavy.
* F9 first stage production halted.
* BFS prototype flies suborbital but fails. Elon announces design changes.
* BFR gets shrunk further.
* First BFR flight is scheduled to contain only starlink sats.

* Boeing/LM decide Vulcan can't compete with Falcon at historical profit margins and sell ULA to Blue Origin.
* Vulcan becomes Blue Origin's "medium" launcher.
* New Glenn flies a few times with methane upper stage, mostly LEO sats from Starlink competitors.
* Blue Origin announces investment into reusable/refuelable hydrolox upper stage for New Glenn.
* New stage can land with wings on a profile oddly similar to BFS. Separate "deep-space" version lacks wings but can loiter for months.
* RL10 is replaced by BE3 and Aerojet goes bankrupt. Northrop-Grumman buys remaining assets.

* SLS EM-1 slips into 2020 and fails, president Warren kills it.
* Europa Clipper is planned to fly on the very last Delta IV Heavy.
* DSG is replaced by a lunar base collaboration using existing heavy launchers.
* DSG PPE morphs into a LEO-to-LLO tug.

* Bigelow starts a successful space tourism business.
* Plans to deploy extra module once every year.
* Lockheed Martin/NASA agreement to privatize Orion.
* Boeing and LM both fly capsule to the Bigelow station on Blue Origin launchers.

* Ariane 6 flies alongside the last few Ariane 5.
* Ariane 7 in heavy development. Looks like a methane Falcon with a stretched hydrolox upper stage.

* Worsening relations after 2020 results in the ISS Russian section being sealed off and detached.
* China announces Tiangong-4 will attach to OPSEK.
* Russia and China announce a different lunar base.
* Outer space treaty in question among calls to draw borders on Shackleton crater.
« Last Edit: 11/08/2017 11:41 pm by DreamyPickle »

Offline testguy

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #41 on: 11/09/2017 12:58 am »
Aerojet goes bankrupt?  Even if AR-1, RL-10, RS-68 and RS-25 all were closed out, I don’t see bankrupcy in the cards.  Aerojet is so much more than large liquid engines.  The defense sector is very large including many of the tactical rockets used by the military, there are billions of dollars in real estate assets, air breathing propulsion systems and stratigic solid motors to mention a few other areas of the corporation.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #42 on: 11/09/2017 01:01 am »
The Nuclear Exchange of 2018 will end space launches for the remainder of the century, at least.  Since the Nuclear Winter has yet to show any signs of relenting, it's difficult to say whether or not there will be a human race to be launching rockets by then, either...
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline saliva_sweet

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #43 on: 11/09/2017 08:12 am »
That is an interesting claim.  I can certainly see the logic of a BO + ULA marriage.   

Do you have an hard information on this, or is this speculation / reading between the lines?

Just the crystal ball and tealeaves as appropriate for this thread. I just don't think BO pursuing DOD cert for New Glenn was a backstab to ULA. I suspect they're all in on this and the deal is basically done between Bezos, Boeing and LM.

Offline testguy

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #44 on: 11/09/2017 01:32 pm »
The Nuclear Exchange of 2018 will end space launches for the remainder of the century, at least.  Since the Nuclear Winter has yet to show any signs of relenting, it's difficult to say whether or not there will be a human race to be launching rockets by then, either...

Really dark humor.  Really not funny at all.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #45 on: 11/09/2017 02:02 pm »

* National Space Propulsion Test Facility at Westcott complete and in full operation. Neighbours complain about the noise.
(emphasis mine) ... wow, you REALLY went out on a limb there.... no one EVER complains about noise. LOL

Also, while a prediction of a nuclear exchange doesn't quite fit the rest of the format, it's legit (note that no discussion of WHO or WHY would be in bounds)... if quite morbid.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline floss

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #46 on: 11/09/2017 08:30 pm »
Massive increase in the price of falcon rocket following the failure of four falcons because build quality slipped owning to exhausted workers making errors.Manned flights underway.

Falcon heavy succeeds on its third launch after two failures.

Antaries rocket flying .
Atlas rocket transferring people to the ISS.

Vulcan rocket first launch.

SLS nearing launch .

Cots 2 announced to supply the deep space station .

ISS gets funding for six new modules two habitat ,one docking module ,a centrifuge research module , a power module with 300 kilwatts of power docked to Zvezda and a drive research module docked to the power module .

Ban on all far east rocket launches following a north Korean rocket falling on Japan.

Angara rocket a failure after cost overruns .
Moonbase treaty just signed 8 landings per year 4 crew .

Japan working on the lunar personnel ferry.
China working on the heavy lunar cargo lander .

Shenzou spacecraft launched from Kourou  on Soyuz.

Ariane 5 winding down.
Ariane 6 flying .

Vega further upgrades funded. p140 stage under testing.

« Last Edit: 11/09/2017 08:31 pm by floss »

Offline tdperk

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #47 on: 11/10/2017 01:51 pm »
SLS is mothballed.  ULA gets a 1bn$/year contract to maintain the vehicle and production facilities in readiness.

Offline Elvis in Space

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #48 on: 11/10/2017 11:53 pm »
Looking back five years and trying to draw some lessons from that - Who knows?  ::) I guess all you can do is look at the trends -

China continues to expand their efforts.

Russian efforts continue to diminish having lost all commercial payload business to global competition.

Spacex is launching something at several times their current rate. BFR is a happening thing that doesn't take as long to reach fruition as FH but still not as soon as Elon wants. Spacex has flown passengers around the moon and landed robots on Mars.

Blue Origin is launching things both orbital and sub-orbital.

ISS is still doing it's thing with most crew transport being commercial.

NASA/SLS has flown once and been dropped.

ESA is still having a difficult time making decisions.

Most everybody else is still prognosticating unfunded wonders just a few years away.

« Last Edit: 11/10/2017 11:57 pm by Elvis in Space »
Cheeseburgers on Mars!

Online ZachS09

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #49 on: 11/11/2017 03:52 am »
Here are my ten predictions for what will happen by 2022:

1: SpaceX and Blue Origin are launching their reusable rockets (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, New Glenn) to somewhat dominate the commercial market, leaving United Launch Alliance and Arianespace with barely a chance.

2: Russia eventually launches the Nauka MLM module to the ISS by December 2018.

3: NASA's Space Launch System & Orion spacecraft will be flying; albeit only missions to the Moon and beyond. There will be a one flight per year cadence.

4: China's Long March 2, 3, and 4 launch vehicles will be completely retired; Long March 5, 6, 7, and eventually 8 will take over for the eventual construction of the Chinese Modular Space Station and future lunar orbiters & sample return probes. That goes for manned spaceflights and satellite launches, too.

5: Arianespace's Vega rocket, along with the C and E variants, will keep up its 100% success rate. The Ariane 6 could suffer a failure or partial failure on one of its early flights.

6: The European Space Agency commits to their lunar village project and starts developing the proper equipment and fuel depots.

7: United Launch Alliance's Atlas V will suffer an early ascent failure, resulting in the loss of vehicle and payload, and causing a setback of one to two years. Delta IV Heavy, however, is unaffected due to its success rate.

8: The International Space Station team plans to decommission the station by 2024 by using a Progress spacecraft to deorbit the entire thing while it is unmanned. Its Earth-orbiting replacement will be Bigelow Aerospace's B330 module.

9: ISRO retires the PSLV and GSLV and keeps the GSLV Mk.3 in service, which will launch all interplanetary probes and Earth-orbiting satellites. The eventual replacement, Unified Launch Vehicle, begins simultaneous development.

10: One of the ISS crew ferries atop a Soyuz-2.1a goes through an early abort due to a problem in either the first or second stage engines. Luckily, all three members are alive upon touchdown.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2017 03:56 am by ZachS09 »
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #50 on: 11/11/2017 07:26 am »
I don’t know if I’d call myself one of the “cool kids” but here’s my take:

- by 2022 I think civilization will have had a “near-death experience” caused by a major war. This will affect spaceflight in a number of ways (certain orbits unusable due to debris from destroyed satellites, economies needing to rebuild causing lower space budgets, new technologies being developed and used, irradiated areas and changed climates needing more intensive study from satellites, etc.).

- Every major surviving launch provider worldwide (private or government) will have some form of reusability (partial or total) in their current or planned launchers to reduce costs. SpaceX won’t have the entire field to itself as Blue Origin, ULA, others foreign and domestic step up their games. BFR will have flown at least one test flight, Falcon 9/Heavy and New Glenn will compete, Vulcan will be flying with US engines and some reuse of engines, Orbital NGLV will be flying (and will feature some degree of reuse in a later version), SLS will have flown but the number of future SLS missions will be capped due to budget constraints and BFR will eventually be the heavy lifter of choice for NASA missions down the line. Surviving non-US space agencies and providers will put reusability features in Ariane 6, H-II/III, Long March, Soyuz, etc.

- Europa Clipper will be in an advanced state of launch prep for flight on the 2nd SLS mission, JWST will have made stunning breakthrough discoveries related to exoplanets and cosmology, all textbooks will need to be rewritten. Microbial life (past life at any rate, maybe current life) will have been discovered elsewhere in the solar system and we will know Earth was not alone in harboring life. (Mars rovers Curiosity, Opportunity, ExoMars, Mars 2020 will feature prominently). We will be VERY hot on the trail of Earth’s twin with promising leads. Hubble will still be going, though in need of a repair mission which will eventually come. These space missions and discoveries will keep humanity hoping and dreaming during a very dark time worldwide.

- Human spaceflight will continue though not fare as well in the rebuilding world. US commercial crew will be a going concern but will need a new destination as ISS suffers damage and has its lifespan shortened. New commercial mini stations will have started flying by late 2022 and the commercial crew craft, besides supplying these stations and perhaps standalone crewed flights, are modified to fly deep space missions, borrowing some tech from Orion. Orion flies EM-1 but is cancelled and parts of it are repurposed for the Deep Space Hab which hasn’t flown yet but metal is being cut for its components. SpaceX has to delay its Mars plans for a few years but will still be working on them. A few suborbital tourism trips will have flown, though widespread regular flights will have to wait until economic and societal recovery is more advanced. At least one Moon flyby with crew will be in advanced preparation though not yet ready to go.

- Another Chelyabinsk incident (with fatalities) will revive all kinds of asteroid detection and deflection plans and a new asteroid deflection and mining demonstration mission will be funded by a billionaire and near the launch pad. New telescope technology will start to come on line and help discover more and more small solar system objects. Planet 9 will also have been confirmed. Asteroid and comet resource extraction will be on the verge of becoming important but not ready for prime time at the end of 2022.

- finally, I will have survived though not without loss, and I will still be enjoying NSF and thinking about what spaceflight would look like in 2027. I will still have more spacecraft and rocket kits than I can ever display, and I will still be planning launch trips, though maybe not by myself if the right one comes along.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2017 07:30 am by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline tdperk

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #51 on: 11/12/2017 02:16 pm »
8: The International Space Station team plans to decommission the station by 2024 by using a Progress spacecraft to deorbit the entire thing while it is unmanned. Its Earth-orbiting replacement will be Bigelow Aerospace's B330 module.

I think it is more likely it will be boosted to a caretaking orbit as a museum in waiting.

Offline Andrew9141

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #52 on: 11/14/2017 02:38 pm »
In 2022:
NASA's SLS has been modified slightly from its original plan and has completed its very first test flight this year.
SpaceX will be the largest commercial space company with ever growing cooperation with NASA
SpaceX's ITS/BFR or whatever it will be named is nearing completion but still hasn't completed a test flight.
The Mars mission is being pushed back another 5 years but excitement for going is stronger than ever.
The Falcon heavy is has already been decommissioned.
Any rocket company that wants to be competitive must be able to reuse their rockets. (This means you too NASA)
Internet coming from satellites will either be a huge success or a topic not even discussed any more.
Great strides will be made in Artificial Intelligence and Automation. (Self driving cars are finally a norm for the most part, increased automation in manufacturing processes and improved automation in rocket launches/trajectories etc..)

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #53 on: 11/14/2017 11:01 pm »
Welcome Andrew9141

Why would SpaceX decommission the FH before BFR is launching payloads? it means giving up on a certain segment of the market.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline speedevil

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #54 on: 11/27/2017 11:53 am »
With my unusually optimistic hat on.
BFS manages cargo launches to Mars in Sep 2022, landing Dec 31 2022.

This follows an aggressive testing schedule for BFS:
2020 BFS outer moldline vehicle without TPS, to verify landing at increasing weights up to full nominal landing weight.
2021 BFS-1 constructed
2021-2 many hops of BFS flight article, at increasing delta-v, ending up at SSTO with small cargo.
2022 BFR flies.

In 2020-1, BFHopper, then BFS are aggressively working on reuse. Second flight of BFS after a month, then once a week for a couple of months, then once a day for a month.

Sometime in 2021, SpaceX offers the ability for any relatively small sat to be launched to LEO, nearly any day you want, with the ability to check it out in orbit for a short period before release, and if not, land. (this would be before deployment).

They begin launching starlink sats.

In 2022, this accelerates as BFR comes online, in time to launch several BFS to mars.

A rapid ramp of BFR cadence finishes the full starlink constellation rather sooner than expected.
The first crewed launches occur.

At this point, BFS has some hundreds of flights, and BFR rather less than this.

There are several BFS in flight to mars, and BFR/BFS is reliable enough in everybodies eyes for 'space tourism' class launches with massive waivers.

BFS-P2P jurisdiction/launch-site shopping has begun, and perhaps even some construction of pads awaiting this.

2027: SpaceX and some other vendor, possibly Boeing or Airbus (the aircraft side) have got P2P capable vehicles with an incidental lowering of space launch cost to $10/kg on the back of it, and the capability to launch nearly free (by todays standards) cargo towards mars, for pickup by local BFS.
I like this hat.

Back to 2022.
Out from Musk, SLS flew once, successfully, and Europa Clipper mission failed to materialise.
EM-2 hasn't flown yet, but is not cancelled.

Some of the stuff being launched by BFR/S looks very, very, very odd compared to old-space, with unexpected partners.
« Last Edit: 11/27/2017 02:31 pm by speedevil »

Offline Proponent

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #55 on: 11/27/2017 01:19 pm »
NASA's budget has decreased slightly in real terms compared to 2018.

ISS's life has been extended to 2028.

Both Starliner and Dragon 2 are flying with people, though the earliest of them only since 2020.

Dream Chaser has carried cargo to ISS but other roles for it remain speculative.

EM-1 has flown.

2nd SLS launch is to be Europa Clipper, NET 2024.

Projected EM-2 has slipped to 2025.

NASA and contractors continue to produce pretty viewgraphs of DSG.  A bit of funding, but cumulatively about a gigabuck at most (i.e., a there's long way to go).  ESA is now talking more about DSG than the international lunar village -- but not putting much money into either.

Neither NASA nor ESA has any serious plans for a crewed lunar lander.

SpaceX has not yet flown people around the moon.

BE-4-powered Vulcan is flying, almost exclusively with military payloads.

Ariane 6 is flying, mostly with European-government-sponsored payloads.

Falcon Heavy is flying, though there has been a major failure.

New Glenn has begun flying.

All four of the aforementioned launch vehicles fly at rates expressed more appropriately in flights per year than in flights per month.

Falcon 9 is easily the world's most popular launch vehicle, though Version 5 has turned out not to be so extensively reusable as SpaceX had claimed.  F9 first stages remain in production.

Skylon is still discussed but little closer to realization.

A small number of nanosat launch vehicles have flown, but the sector's long-range economic viability remains unestablished.

Sub-orbital tourist flights have occurred, but business is faltering.

Reasonable people still put BFR's first flight three or more years in the future, though SpaceX may say otherwise.

A NASA robitic mission to a lunar pole has been approved but has not yet flown.

NASA is spending real money for the return of the Mars 2020 sample cache, with international partners.

Jim Brindenstine still awaits Senate confirmation as NASA administrator. [joke]

OSIRIS-REx and JWST notwithstanding, the intensity with which NASA's robotic spacecraft astound the world has been somewhat reduced lately, because of a dearth of arrivals at photogenic destinations (InSight will be on Mars but won't provide the photographic bonanza of a rover; Lucy and Psyche will still be en route; no new New Horizons arrivals will occur by 2022).  It will be up to OSIRIS-REx and JWST.  [More of an observation than a prediction.]
« Last Edit: 11/29/2017 01:55 pm by Proponent »

Offline Wayne Hale

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #56 on: 12/01/2017 07:53 pm »
Powerpoint chart production at an all time high

Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #57 on: 08/09/2022 03:52 pm »
Revivifying this thread of predictions from 2017.   My predictions were a bit optimistic, but not too far off.

Reading through other predictions was interesting.   


* Since starting in 2018, Starlink began, slowly at first, providing ubiquitous internet connectivity.  E. Musk is worth an estimated 50 billion dollars as the communication mogul of the 21 century.  Telsa has been sold to Toyota.   SpaceX remains a private company.   Starlink is publically traded

* SpaceX has been flying Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets at a slowly increasing cadence needed to service its comsat constellation and its other nascent businesses.   In 2022, there are 4 to 5 flights a week. 

* Blue Origin is flying once a week.   In additional to commercial competing with SpaceX, then have a large contract with the US gov't to be the alternative provider for launch services.

* Commercial space travel is a 1 billion dollar a year business.   Approx 500 million dollars  a year total is spent by countries like Australia, the UK, Sweden, Malaysia, Korea, Brazil and UAE to host their astronauts on World Trade Station in LEO for two or four week stints.   Several business are shuttling raw materials and employees up, and manufactured goods down from the WTS.   Several big budget films have been shot in LEO, but the biggest surprize is the greater than 500 million dollars spent by people to visit the station for tourism.

* ISS is in it's final years.   No one can be found (or the gov't can't agree on) a way to keep it going.   

* There is no Moon base.  There is a lot of talk about  a moon base; perhaps the next administration will fund a return to the moon.

* The replacement JWST is scheduled to be launched in two years to replace the first telescope lost when it did not deploy correctly.

* The US air force funds a large constellation of small sats to provide persistent surveillance data.   This represents something like 50% of revenue for BO, and 20% of the revenue for SpaceX

* BFR has made a number of sub orbital and orbital flights.   Turn around time has been hampered by a number of operational issues.   Work continues to optimize the BFR.   Boca Chica hosts an off shore launch platform.   EM. has announced that he has completed work on BFR, and is scaling up to the BMFR and putting the entire company into the new design.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #58 on: 08/09/2022 05:39 pm »
A few observations first:

A. the total space market is growing in real terms, but at a slower rate than in the recent past.

B. the price for launch has fallen recently and is likely to fall further. This is only just starting to feed through into payloads and applications, except perhaps LEO internet constellations (StarLink is probably predicated on cheap launch, not sure about the others). This means that launch as a proportion of the total space market is falling.

C. there is a trend for satellites to both get bigger and smaller, bigger for GEO payloads (excluding propulsion), smaller for LEO constellations.

D. it takes a long time to develop space hardware, few things that are not in development now will be deployed in 5 years time.

E. several areas including mil/intel, human space flight and launch are on the cusp of major changes, because of the long development time changes in these areas will not be complete.

F. there has been a general shift from government to commercial, which has occurred over decades, this is likely to continue, but this shift does not mean reduction in total government spend.

G. there is a trend to more players, with the advent of smallsat launchers launch is not longer the preserve of big countries and there large contractors. Similarly medium and small organisations can launch and operate satellites.

H. there is a shortage of profit, the combination of only a modest increase in total market, lower prices, large development costs and an increase in the number of players means that profits will be hard to come by. This is only likely to get worse.

I. a shortage of profit should make access to venture capital (and other forms of capital) hard to come by, this does not seem to currently be the case, but could change rapidly.

J. there are large market distortions caused by national interests, this is not likely to change over the next few years. Nations do not like spending money outside their borders, leading to barter and workshare agreements.

K. aerospace projects often suffer delays, this can happen to any organisation, recent experience with similar projects can help but is not a guarantee of being on-time and on-budget.

L. some projects can blow their budget and timescale by massive amounts (e.g. JWST, Angara). Generally slowing a project causes its total budget to increase, as does changing the specification. A trend to faster development and more churn in applications should lead to more projects being cancelled if they are late or are overtaken by other developments, but this does not seem to be the case.

M. because cubesats are relatively cheap to design and operate they are in the reach of universities, small and medium companies and developing nations.

Some more specific predictions, based on these general observations, later.

I never did get round to making detailed predictions, but I think that these observations above have held up pretty well and are still mostly true. A shortage of venture capital is the major miss.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2022
« Reply #59 on: 08/10/2022 11:18 pm »
So what will be happening in human spaceflight in 2022, five years from now?

I will go first.

SpaceX will be preparing to launch people to Mars, having landed and set up equipment and a base there already.

Wow was this ever wrong.

ESA will have a base on the moon, operated like the ISS.

Wow was this ever wrong.
ISS will still be up there, still doing zero gravity research.

Yes, this was right.

NASA will be using an orbital spaceplane, which replaced SLS and Orion years ago.

Haha. I make me laugh. Why I laugh? (Quote from the Simpsons)

NASA will have sent robots to Europa, which are now drilling into the surface.

This is still st least 20 years away.

Well, I got 1/5 for trying to predict 5 years in advance.
e^(pi*i) = -1


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