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International Space Station (ISS) => ISS Section => Topic started by: russianhalo117 on 10/22/2013 04:26 pm

Title: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: russianhalo117 on 10/22/2013 04:26 pm
Per Space Pete's Request:
Quote
I think this thread needs to be re-named to:

"The Great MLM Debacle Thread"

September 2015? :o

This would honestly be comical if it weren't so sad. I have no idea how an experienced company can take 15 years to build something and still get it catastrophically wrong.

ESA would get ERA on-orbit sooner if they just gave it to the Chinese.

Bah, abysmul. >:(
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Danderman on 10/22/2013 05:02 pm
I am speculating that the long delay from initial construction of FGB-2 to today has caused a deterioration of the propellant lines in MLM.  Why this would be unexpected is a mystery to me.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: woods170 on 10/22/2013 05:56 pm
Don't think so. The ones on Zarya are even older and working just fine. And those are in a much harsher environment than the ones on MLM.

From what I understand of my DutchSpace source the propellant transfer lines on MLM were almost completely replaced with a new version when the FGB backup was converted to MLM. It is with this new version that all kinds of things seem to be wrong.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: woods170 on 10/22/2013 06:06 pm
Per Space Pete's Request:
Quote
I think this thread needs to be re-named to:

"The Great MLM Debacle Thread"

September 2015? :o

This would honestly be comical if it weren't so sad. I have no idea how an experienced company can take 15 years to build something and still get it catastrophically wrong.

ESA would get ERA on-orbit sooner if they just gave it to the Chinese.

Bah, abysmul. >:(

Khrunichev has gone catastrophically wrong over the years. And with it the project to convert the FGB backup into MLM. At least; so it seems.
From what I hear, from the walking-corridor rumours at ESA, that is exactly the reason why RSC Energia got the contract to build the NEM modules, and not Khrunichev. Despite Khrunichev having constructed the majority of Soviet / Russian space station modules over the past 40 years.
If those rumours are correct, than that says a lot.

How could a company with so much experience in constructing space station modules get it so incredibly wrong with this one? That has got to be the result of just more than the use of some inexperienced engineers. IMO the sometimes mentioned "organizational issues" at Khrunichev are very much to blame for this.

Another indicator for Khrunichev having gone wrong is (obviously) the recent Proton failure, more particularly the (almost ridiculous) cause of that incident.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: baldusi on 10/22/2013 06:41 pm
And yet they've got the (future almost) exclusivity of Angara for military launches, got control of KBKhA and the future crewed launch vehicle. I don't think they are getting punished too much for their failures. Heads roll but no process changes. What's the point of punishing if you only punish scapegoats?
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Prober on 10/22/2013 06:52 pm
And yet they've got the (future almost) exclusivity of Angara for military launches, got control of KBKhA and the future crewed launch vehicle. I don't think they are getting punished too much for their failures. Heads roll but no process changes. What's the point of punishing if you only punish scapegoats?

Maybe the plan is to take the company apart?     Just hasn't happened yet.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Lars_J on 11/29/2013 05:03 pm
Since the whole space industry in Russia is headed towards nationalization (unless I am mistaken) - does it really matter if Krunichev or Energia get the contracts? After the re-org, they will be run by the same people anyway.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Danderman on 11/29/2013 05:09 pm
And yet they've got the (future almost) exclusivity of Angara for military launches, got control of KBKhA and the future crewed launch vehicle. I don't think they are getting punished too much for their failures. Heads roll but no process changes. What's the point of punishing if you only punish scapegoats?

Don't forget Polyot in Omsk, where much production takes place.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Prober on 11/30/2013 11:38 pm
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Chris Bergin on 12/01/2013 12:12 am
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 

Per the new long range to 2020/21 FPIP ISS manifest, the slip into 2015 is the official status.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Prober on 12/01/2013 01:14 am
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 

Per the new long range to 2020/21 FPIP ISS manifest, the slip into 2015 is the official status.
Chris I was going by this update:
Launches of ISS RS Modules to ISS Taken from Anik's Russian Launch schedule (as always subject to change):
2015
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
November (TBD) – Nauka – Proton-M – Baikonur

2016
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
May (TBD) – Progress M-UM (No. 303) – Soyuz-2-1B – Baikonur

2017
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
end of year – NEM-1 – Proton-M – Baikonur

2018
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
TBD – NEM-2 – Proton-M (TBD) – Baikonur (TBD)
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: woods170 on 12/01/2013 02:46 pm
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 

The way things are going I would not be surprised if NEM-2 ends up launching in 2020, if ever.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Prober on 12/01/2013 02:48 pm
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 

The way things are going I would not be surprised if NEM-2 ends up launching in 2020, if ever.

Sadly, I agree with you.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: owais.usmani on 12/01/2013 04:52 pm
Looks like I've missed this, but when was NEM-2 contracted? and to whom?
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Nicolas PILLET on 12/01/2013 05:43 pm
Looks like I've missed this, but when was NEM-2 contracted? and to whom?

For now, only NEM-1 is contracted (to RKK Energiya).
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: owais.usmani on 12/02/2013 04:32 am
Looks like I've missed this, but when was NEM-2 contracted? and to whom?

For now, only NEM-1 is contracted (to RKK Energiya).

Yeah, that's what I thought.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: woods170 on 12/02/2013 09:34 am
Looks like I've missed this, but when was NEM-2 contracted? and to whom?

For now, only NEM-1 is contracted (to RKK Energiya).

Yeah, that's what I thought.

What do you think my "if ever" comment was present for? ;)
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: owais.usmani on 12/02/2013 10:43 am
Looks like I've missed this, but when was NEM-2 contracted? and to whom?

For now, only NEM-1 is contracted (to RKK Energiya).

Yeah, that's what I thought.

What do you think my "if ever" comment was present for? ;)

Well I got confused by you people talking about it being launched in 2018 / 2020. I thought it has been contracted & I missed the news.  :P
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: JazzFan on 12/02/2013 10:51 am
Even a bad issue can create positives.  What long term improvements will come to RKK Energiya and khrunichev from the MLM debacle?
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Zannanza on 12/02/2013 11:08 am
Will it ever be launched? I doubt it.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: PeterAlt on 12/02/2013 03:05 pm
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 

Per the new long range to 2020/21 FPIP ISS manifest, the slip into 2015 is the official status.
Chris I was going by this update:
Launches of ISS RS Modules to ISS Taken from Anik's Russian Launch schedule (as always subject to change):
2015
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
November (TBD) – Nauka – Proton-M – Baikonur

2016
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
May (TBD) – Progress M-UM (No. 303) – Soyuz-2-1B – Baikonur

2017
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
end of year – NEM-1 – Proton-M – Baikonur

2018
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
TBD – NEM-2 – Proton-M (TBD) – Baikonur (TBD)


If they carry through with that schedule, one module a year for the next few years, isn't bad. It keeps a consistent and fast pace. I'm more worried about the number of years we will be able to use them.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: russianhalo117 on 12/02/2013 08:10 pm
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 

Per the new long range to 2020/21 FPIP ISS manifest, the slip into 2015 is the official status.
Chris I was going by this update:
Launches of ISS RS Modules to ISS Taken from Anik's Russian Launch schedule (as always subject to change):
2015
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
November (TBD) – Nauka – Proton-M – Baikonur

2016
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
May (TBD) – Progress M-UM (No. 303) – Soyuz-2-1B – Baikonur

2017
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
end of year – NEM-1 – Proton-M – Baikonur

2018
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
TBD – NEM-2 – Proton-M (TBD) – Baikonur (TBD)

If they carry through with that schedule, one module a year for the next few years, isn't bad. It keeps a consistent and fast pace. I'm more worried about the number of years we will be able to use them.
Before the last extension to ISS, a few years ago the following was and still is the current plan; According to the applicable Russian Directives to be performed, by Russia and other ISS partner countries that wish to participate in new station project, upon the end of ISS, but before Deorbiting preparations Modules MRM-1, MRM-2, MLM, UM, NEM-1 and NEM-2 are to be disconnected from ISS and reused as official beginning point for New station. Then some flights between ISS and new station will be done to transfer several equipments no longer needed on ISS to the New Russian led station.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: PeterAlt on 12/07/2013 05:34 pm
Must we wait until 2018 for the MLM and all the modules to be installed?
 

Per the new long range to 2020/21 FPIP ISS manifest, the slip into 2015 is the official status.
Chris I was going by this update:
Launches of ISS RS Modules to ISS Taken from Anik's Russian Launch schedule (as always subject to change):
2015
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
November (TBD) – Nauka – Proton-M – Baikonur

2016
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
May (TBD) – Progress M-UM (No. 303) – Soyuz-2-1B – Baikonur

2017
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
end of year – NEM-1 – Proton-M – Baikonur

2018
Date – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome – Time
TBD – NEM-2 – Proton-M (TBD) – Baikonur (TBD)

If they carry through with that schedule, one module a year for the next few years, isn't bad. It keeps a consistent and fast pace. I'm more worried about the number of years we will be able to use them.
Before the last extension to ISS, a few years ago the following was and still is the current plan; According to the applicable Russian Directives to be performed, by Russia and other ISS partner countries that wish to participate in new station project, upon the end of ISS, but before Deorbiting preparations Modules MRM-1, MRM-2, MLM, UM, NEM-1 and NEM-2 are to be disconnected from ISS and reused as official beginning point for New station. Then some flights between ISS and new station will be done to transfer several equipments no longer needed on ISS to the New Russian led station.


Yeah, I knew that was always the intent. I didn't know MRM-1 and MRM-2 were part of plan. Where will they go?
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Jim on 12/07/2013 06:19 pm

Before the last extension to ISS, a few years ago the following was and still is the current plan; According to the applicable Russian Directives to be performed, by Russia and other ISS partner countries that wish to participate in new station project, upon the end of ISS, but before Deorbiting preparations Modules MRM-1, MRM-2, MLM, UM, NEM-1 and NEM-2 are to be disconnected from ISS and reused as official beginning point for New station. Then some flights between ISS and new station will be done to transfer several equipments no longer needed on ISS to the New Russian led station.


Yeah, I knew that was always the intent. I didn't know MRM-1 and MRM-2 were part of plan. Where will the go?

That is not an intent but a wish
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Danderman on 12/07/2013 07:31 pm
OPSEK is a quasi-formal Roskosmos plan for maintaining the Russian segment if the USOS is discarded.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: savuporo on 12/08/2013 01:20 am
What i would really like to know if there has been any discussipn of OPSEK with chinese participation
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: 360-180 on 12/08/2013 11:38 am
While Roskosmos comes from the fact that the ISS will operate until 2028. Therefore, the delay for two years the MLM will not affect 20s.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: PeterAlt on 12/08/2013 03:41 pm
What i would really like to know if there has been any discussipn of OPSEK with chinese participation
Don't go there. Not here, yet. Believe me, I tried. So, until there's real news to justify bringing it up...
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Danderman on 12/08/2013 03:46 pm
While Roskosmos comes from the fact that the ISS will operate until 2028. Therefore, the delay for two years the MLM will not affect 20s.

The reality is that by 2028, the Russian segment will be obsolete, and not worth operating any more.

The designs will be very old, the hardware will be well used, and newer systems will be more cost effective.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: EgorBotts on 03/22/2017 03:37 pm
Well, it seems appropriate to reactivate this thread, since apparently the MLM suffers,  this early 2017, the same disease it suffered back in 2013.
Another "10 month delay" ahead?

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/satellites/a25773/mlm-delayed-russia/
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Lars-J on 03/24/2017 05:33 pm
This thing will never launch. Mark my words.

(And no, I have no industry contacts, I'm just stating the obvious)
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: woods170 on 03/24/2017 07:58 pm
This thing will never launch. Mark my words.

(And no, I have no industry contacts, I'm just stating the obvious)
Maybe. Maybe not. But they are looking at yet another estimated 2-year delay to get the latest mess fixed. It involves yet another very intrusive operation on, and modification of, the module's tankage and plumbing.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Space Pete on 03/24/2017 09:35 pm
Might as well melt it down and start over. This has gone beyond ridiculous now. There comes a point in engineering where you just throw more and more resources at ever diminishing returns. Time to cut and run. >:(
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Space Ghost 1962 on 03/24/2017 11:43 pm
Nah. It'll just be kicked down the line to the next station wherever. They'll just keep rebuilding it again and again for subsequent requirements/capabilities.

Then they'll screw up on those, delay and remediate til cancellation. Will go into storage, then be proposed for yet another role elsewhere. Higher latitude station, lunar, perhaps even Mars/Phobos.

Waste not, want not. There's a lot of Russian space stuff in storage, wash, rinse, reuse.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: robertross on 03/25/2017 01:40 pm
Nah. It'll just be kicked down the line to the next station wherever. They'll just keep rebuilding it again and again for subsequent requirements/capabilities.

Then they'll screw up on those, delay and remediate til cancellation. Will go into storage, then be proposed for yet another role elsewhere. Higher latitude station, lunar, perhaps even Mars/Phobos.

Waste not, want not. There's a lot of Russian space stuff in storage, wash, rinse, reuse.

While I would agree, from the PM article it seems to indicate that they can't wash & rinse the contaminants off of the interior surfaces of the propellant tank(s).

I would have thought something like carbon tetra-chloride could wash just about anything out  ;)
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: brickmack on 03/25/2017 03:15 pm
Anyone got any pictures of these irreplaceable weird-shaped tanks? Article shows a serial number, but Google finds nothing. How much smaller would its fuel load be if they switched to the smaller tanks?
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: okan170 on 03/25/2017 06:04 pm
Might as well melt it down and start over. This has gone beyond ridiculous now. There comes a point in engineering where you just throw more and more resources at ever diminishing returns. Time to cut and run. >:(

About a year ago, I looked at adding the MLM to the ISS model I use for renders since it seemed that maybe it might be going better.  After that I decided that I'll add it only once the module is actually on the launchpad.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: A_M_Swallow on 03/26/2017 02:15 am
IMHO To finish MLM fix the end of development as 3 years time. Annual budget to be the same as it is at the moment. With those two limitations what can MLM do?
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/27/2017 01:01 pm
Quote
Anatoly Zak‏ @RussianSpaceWeb

Russian engineers choose scenario to salvage #ISS' #Nauka module. EXCLUSIVE DETAILS: http://russianspaceweb.com/iss-fgb2-mlm-2017.html #Roscosmos #MLM

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/846344855987126274 (https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/846344855987126274)
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Archibald on 03/27/2017 02:23 pm
The MLM will launch when man land on Mars...
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Lars-J on 03/27/2017 04:21 pm
Might as well melt it down and start over. This has gone beyond ridiculous now. There comes a point in engineering where you just throw more and more resources at ever diminishing returns. Time to cut and run. >:(

Agreed, this is beyond ridiculous. What is so special about these cylindrical tanks that they cannot be built again from scratch? Is there no manufacturing capability of any kind left in Russia, and they are forced to build this thing from old parts inventory?
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: eeergo on 03/27/2017 04:40 pm
It isn't that amazingly difficult to conceive that restarting and recertifying production of a critical low-volume item whose last units were manufactured 20 years ago, possibly based on much older designs and tooling, would take longer and be more expensive than replacing them with something they have sitting on a shelf and comes from the actual same spacecraft?

I agree the MLM situation is quite a debacle, but I find the level of bashing-to-information ratio in this thread to be quite annoying, maybe to the point it wouldn't be allowed in other sections of the forum. What's worse, I feel this might be driving insiders (or at least Russian natives) away from discussing interesting insights here.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: whitelancer64 on 03/27/2017 04:40 pm
As I understand it, the main problem is twofold. One, the tanks in question were made decades ago (so just making new ones is not as simple as it sounds), and two, the tanks have already been installed and integrated with the module. Further hardware, including radiators and structural assemblies for the launch fairing, have been installed around and on top of them. Also, using more recently built tanks (such as from Progress) won't work due to their size and shape:

"Because of their unique design, they fit neatly onto the module, leaving enough room to place radiator panels over them. But it also means that no modern tanks can get in their place without cutting through the radiators!"

http://russianspaceweb.com/iss-fgb2-mlm-2017.html

The article helpfully lists all the possible solutions that have been considered.

Any fix is going to mean the near-complete disassembly and reassembly of the exterior of the module.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Graham on 09/21/2017 09:04 pm
Looks like more issues relating to the tanks following their attempted repair being reported by Anatoly Zak. At this rate the NET will end up around 2100.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/iss-fgb2-mlm-tanks.html#2017_09
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: savuporo on 09/22/2017 05:06 am
It's basically rusting away and developing leaks faster than they can repair it
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: woods170 on 09/22/2017 06:01 am
It's basically rusting away and developing leaks faster than they can repair it
No, that's not it. Poor workmanship, worsened by a poor quality control system, as a result of the collapse of the Russian space industry, are the prime reasons why MLM will never be launched to the ISS, or at best many years late.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: Tomness on 09/22/2017 07:08 am
Time for Bob Bigelow to put up or shut up... BA-330 be nice replacement for this lab
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: eeergo on 05/21/2021 09:16 am
Still need to cross fingers and toes while touching some sturdy wood, but it seems negativity did not have the upper hand against resiliency in this occasion, in spite of "clear/obvious" alternatives being far faster-cheaper-better. Also regarding ERA.
Title: Re: The Great MLM Debacle Thread (Discussion Only)
Post by: russianhalo117 on 05/21/2021 05:28 pm
Still need to cross fingers and toes while touching some sturdy wood, but it seems negativity did not have the upper hand against resiliency in this occasion, in spite of "clear/obvious" alternatives being far faster-cheaper-better. Also regarding ERA.
ERA flight install complete reference the other thread.