Author Topic: Taurus II and availability of the NK33  (Read 89741 times)

Offline aero313

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #60 on: 01/30/2008 03:11 pm »
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Lampyridae - 29/1/2008  8:46 PM

Virgin Galactic has already collected something like $40 million in ticket sales. SS2 is fully reusable and has a (projected) flight rate of something like 100 per year, with what seems like a rock solid business case....

Right, just like the Space Shuttle business case of 50 flights a year for $4.5 MILLION (with an "M") per flight.  How did that work out?

Offline Antares

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #61 on: 01/30/2008 03:25 pm »
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kevin-rf - 30/1/2008  8:46 AM
Another would be a set of LEO birds that provide decent resolution IR coverage every half hour or so for detecting, tracking, and fighting wild fires. If we could only make the birds and place them in orbit cheap enough to actually do it.
That's kind of funny.  That is precisely an exercise scenario in one of the NASA Project Management and Systems Engineering courses.

BTW, this thread is kinda OT from the title.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #62 on: 01/30/2008 03:31 pm »
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aero313 - 30/1/2008  8:11 AM

Quote
Lampyridae - 29/1/2008  8:46 PM

Virgin Galactic has already collected something like $40 million in ticket sales. SS2 is fully reusable and has a (projected) flight rate of something like 100 per year, with what seems like a rock solid business case....

Right, just like the Space Shuttle business case of 50 flights a year for $4.5 MILLION (with an "M") per flight.  How did that work out?

Well, to be fair to Scaled, this is actually their *second* spaceship.  They've already gotten some data on what it takes to turn one of these things around, so their guesses are a lot better than anything coming out of NASA before 1981 would've been.  Additionally, they have an abundance of payloads (ie people), especially if at some point they can start ratcheting down the price.  Plus they have a much simpler system that was designed from the start for operations.  All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if within 1-2 years of operations they could eventually work their way up to their predicted turn-time.  Whether or not they hit flight rate goals depends on the demand at their pricepoint.

Not that I'm saying that SS2 is the best that can be done for turntime, etc.  Far from it.  But it's a lot better than the Space Cow.

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #63 on: 01/30/2008 03:32 pm »
Antares,
Quote
BTW, this thread is kinda OT from the title.

Sorry...I have a habit of doing that....

~Jon

Offline antonioe

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #64 on: 01/30/2008 04:28 pm »

Quote
jongoff - 30/1/2008 10:31 AM Well, to be fair to Scaled, this is actually their *second* spaceship. They've already gotten some data on what it takes to turn one of these things around ... Plus they have a much simpler system that was designed from the start for operations.

Also, Burt has this nasty habit of not trying to acheive (or, even more importantly, promise!) more than he knows can chew, even if the bites are pretty big.  Bad, bad Burt, if you keep acheiving what you promise, you will give us all a bad rep...

ARS LONGA, VITA BREVIS...

Offline TrueGrit

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #65 on: 01/30/2008 06:51 pm »
Quote
I don't think that's what edkyle99 meant - he was not comparing a 79XX with a Delta K on top versus a T-II with a Delta K on top.  He was comparing a T-II with a Delta K on top with a T-II with a Castor-30 on top!

Your right...  it was a leap of logic.  I thought T-II with C30 was sized to match the 79XX DII...  I guess not.  What is the T-II payload capability?  79XX DII LEO is ~5000kg w/ 9ft fairing and ~4800 kg with 10 ft fairing.  Assume T-II will start with single 3.9m fairing... right?

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #66 on: 02/20/2008 11:36 am »
I think I have checked all the Taurus II threads but I haven't seen anything about which pad will be used.  The image shows it at Wallops, is that the COTS launch site or will there be one at the Cape as well?
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline hop

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #67 on: 02/20/2008 08:44 pm »
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tnphysics - 20/2/2008  1:42 PM

It will be drop-launched from an aircraft.
This is completely wrong.
edit: As should be obvious from the GLOW alone.

Offline dmc6960

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #68 on: 02/20/2008 08:50 pm »
I dont get why you keep saying such outlandish things as if they are fact.  Why is that?


Quote
tnphysics - 20/2/2008  3:42 PM

It will be drop-launched from an aircraft.
-Jim

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #69 on: 02/20/2008 09:48 pm »
Looking at Cynus' payload it appears to be a small vehicle that will fly very often vs a big vehicle that flies twice a year.
Though if the NK33 can't be mass produced before the supply runs out could another engine replace it though this is a very very tough order.
The NK33 is not a simple engine like the RS27 or J2 just anyone can produce easily but a very high performance lox kerosene combined cycle engine with operating pressures are close to those of the SSME.
Finding something of the same thrust is easy but matching the ISP thats going to be difficult maybe a detuned RS-84 could replace the twin nk-33s.
Yes I know the RS-84 program was frozen by some idiots in Washington but it can be restarted we'll likely have a completely new administration soon and the first thing they will do is clear away all the stupidity of the last one.

 Killing SLI was one of the stupidest decisions they made and was undefendable.
 it's a decision that may cause the US to loose the space race .

Restarting SLI and funding it with money saved after killing ares and throwing down the deepest trench in the ocean and replacing it with direct sounds like something Obama or Clinton will do.

Though I feel there is a US contractor who can produce this engine if we can't even copy a Russian engine then how can we even think we're ready to return to the moon or travel to mars?

Offline Jim

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #70 on: 02/20/2008 10:12 pm »
Quote
Patchouli - 20/2/2008  5:48 PM

1.  Looking at Cynus' payload it appears to be a small vehicle that will fly very often vs a big vehicle that flies twice a year.

2.  Though if the NK33 can't be mass produced before the supply runs out could another engine replace it though this is a very very tough order.

3.  Killing SLI was one of the stupidest decisions they made and was undefendable.
 it's a decision that may cause the US to loose the space race .



1.   4-5 times a year is about right.  2 is too little

2.  The supply is big enough so this is not an issue

3.  What race?

Offline Frediiiie

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #71 on: 02/21/2008 04:02 am »
Ed,
Elon Musk in an interview Feb 15
http://www.news.com/Elon-Musk-on-rockets%2C-sports-cars%2C-and-solar-power---page-2/2008-11389_3-6230661-2.html?tag=st.num
said Launch cost for Falcon 1 is about $8M
thats after experience of two launch attempts, so I guess he's got a bit of data now.
You're right the price is up, but not a great deal.
Yet.

Offline Jim

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #72 on: 02/21/2008 11:38 am »
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Frediiiie - 20/2/2008  12:02 AM

Ed,
Elon Musk in an interview Feb 15
http://www.news.com/Elon-Musk-on-rockets%2C-sports-cars%2C-and-solar-power---page-2/2008-11389_3-6230661-2.html?tag=st.num
said Launch cost for Falcon 1 is about $8M
thats after experience of two launch attempts, so I guess he's got a bit of data now.
You're right the price is up, but not a great deal.
Yet.

Depends on the customer

Offline josh_simonson

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #73 on: 02/21/2008 08:41 pm »
Should keep in mind we've seen about 12.5% inflation in the last 3 years, and cost of living inflation in the LA area has probably been higher than that considering there was a housing boom during that period.  To fairly compare today's price with projected prices in previous years we really need to scale the previous quote up with inflation.

A quote of $6.7M in 2004 is 7.5M today - very close to his ~8M quote.  The rocket has also been upgraded a couple times, increasing cost (and performance).

Offline Jose

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #74 on: 08/20/2008 05:49 pm »
I've read variously on this topic and elsewhere that Aerojet has anywhere from 30 to 60 NK-33s (AJ26-58s?)  Does anyone know a more accurate number?  Also, how does that translate into Taurus II flights?  I'm assuming a 100% utilization rate is not realistic.

The Taurus II PDF lists the first stage engines as "AJ26-62", but the Aerojet site only mentions "AJ26-58/59/61", is this just a typo?

Edit: typo.
« Last Edit: 08/20/2008 05:54 pm by Jose »

Offline TrueGrit

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #75 on: 08/20/2008 07:21 pm »
Sounds like Orbital is having Aerojet add some Taurus II specific design changes...  I'm certain the changes are small in nature, or a matter of which kits get installed.  For example the RS68B which NASA is proposing for the Ares V is slightly different to the one used by Delta IV.  The RS68B on Ares V lacks roll control nozzle actuators, has a different thickness ablative nozle, and adds an electronic box to monitor redlines in-flight.  But fundamentally the RS68 on Ares V is the same used on Delta IV.

Perhaps someone would know the Taurus II AJ26 situation, but I don't believe it's been fully certified.  But it's been thru development testing that's for sure...  Due to it's maturity I'd expect a 2 or 3 engine certification.  These engines will be tested extensively, beyond their rated life to show margin, and then torn down for a detailed inspection.  These engines will never be flown, but the rest would be available for flight...  Assuming they pass the acceptance testing and various pre-delivery inspections.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #76 on: 08/22/2008 02:40 am »
Folks,

I can tell you first hand that there is zero issue with a lack of NK-33 engines. None.

Offline Antares

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #77 on: 08/22/2008 06:59 am »
How long have those things been sitting around?  Stress corrosion cracking is a laika.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline Jose

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #78 on: 08/22/2008 05:48 pm »

I can tell you first hand that there is zero issue with a lack of NK-33 engines. None.

Fair enough, but let's assume the supply is not infinite, just for the sake of argument.

So what do we got?  Enough for 2-3 launches for 10 years?  Five years of 4-6 launches?  Inquiring minds want to know.

Antonioe said in another thread that they'll go back to Aerojet and talk when they have orders for 50% of the available engines.  I'm just curious as to how many orders that is, but I expect that I will not get a hard answer.  I suspect there are probably good reasons why I won't get that answer.


Offline HMXHMX

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Re: Taurus II and availability of the NK33
« Reply #79 on: 08/22/2008 06:11 pm »
I recall 46 engines (most NK33 but 7 NK43) at Aerojet. There are more in Samara, Russia but getting at those may now be more of an issue.

This means, using US stock, about 20 or so T-II flights.  Aerojet can put the engine back into production for a reasonable price but I also recall the issue was lead time (something like 5 years).  If my memory is correct, they need to start pretty much now or within the next two years, assuming T-II is a success.

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