Is A Human Space Flight Compromise Emerging? (STS Extension/SD HLV etc)

[padrat]

I think we are going to see, if this comes up to a vote, exactly how strong NASA's support in Congress really is and the degree to which local interests, such as lobbying from certain potential contractors, influence NASA policy.

I'm thinking that if this whole thing hasn't been settled by then, we'll see who our true friends are come post-Nov.

[Jim]

The problem with an HLV has always been finding payloads for it.  What are the payloads for this new HLV supposed to be, and where is the money for them supposed to come from?

I respectfully disagree with your first statement.   I guess the money will come customers and from the tax payer - same as who will pay for the future SpaceX flights. 

What customers?  It is too big for commercial payloads and it does not compete in Spacex's range.   Also what NASA payloads?  there are none on the books.

[kirghizstan]

Given that context, Nelson strongly hints his "HLV" is human-rated.

The only thing Nelson hints at, is keeping some of the jobs. No more, no less. I doubt if he honestly cares if his HLV is human, monkey or fish-rated.

What about whale rated? 

must be pork rated.

[cro-magnon gramps]

The problem with an HLV has always been finding payloads for it.  What are the payloads for this new HLV supposed to be, and where is the money for them supposed to come from?

I respectfully disagree with your first statement.   I guess the money will come customers and from the tax payer - same as who will pay for the future SpaceX flights. 

What customers?  It is too big for commercial payloads and it does not compete in Spacex's range.   Also what NASA payloads?  there are none on the books.

RANT/

"If ALL possible arguements must be over come before something is begun, nothing will ever be started"

to me the thinking is 20th century, the kids today (30-35 ;-) are quicker on their feet; computer vs slide rules; globalization vs nationalization; 5 years ago this forum was a gleam in Chris' eye, and I suspect he had no way of knowing how it would turn out; that it has become what it is, is because the NEED and the solution arrived at the same crossroads together, along with a hefty amount of work and networking;
  you want payloads for a HLV ready on the pad today, for a vehicle that won't be launching for 3-6 years minimum; just doesn't happen that way; and it has nothing to do with whatever capability SpaceX has or will or may have now or in the future; STRAWMAN JIM!!
  People do have ideas for payloads (not just on this thread or forum) but without a commitment to a launcher, why would anyone start to do engineering or research; someone, ANYONE, make a commitment to build a HLV launcher and there will be payloads; first to LEO and later to BEO; North American History has proven this with the advent of the steam train; first there were Wagons, (EELVs of their day) and as track was laid, they were supplanted with trains, which took cargo and people to END OF TRACK, not waiting until it had crossed the Mountains; I won't disagree that this is different than Gov't going BEO, but we have to begin somewhere;
   as for the theme of this thread, with consensus and compromise so obviously struggling to become a reality HERE and on the other threads, I dispair that Congress can do any better; Commonsense and Analyst may have left or be lurking, but plenty of other's have taken up their batons and run with them; Is Nelson signaling a compormise or consensus position, a change of position on SDLV or HLV, (crew / cargo), PERHAPS!! only time will tell, but to make blanket statements without backing them up is non-beneficial; my first reaction, was to do as others like yourself has done, one line, one word response;

M'Larky!!!

but the more I thought about it, the angrier I got; this is not a discussion, this is devolving into "religious" arguements; "my catechism vs yours"

/RANT

now I will go back to lurking and the Beautiful Game in South Africa
   

[Bill White]

The problem with an HLV has always been finding payloads for it.  What are the payloads for this new HLV supposed to be, and where is the money for them supposed to come from?

I respectfully disagree with your first statement.   I guess the money will come customers and from the tax payer - same as who will pay for the future SpaceX flights. 

What customers?  It is too big for commercial payloads and it does not compete in Spacex's range.   Also what NASA payloads?  there are none on the books.

One unresolved issue is whether there should be NASA BEO payloads before 2025.

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

[DigitalMan]

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

1) The documents released during that conference at KSC indicate a number of BEO precursor missions starting in 2020

2) Regardless of what value anyone places on those documents, Bolden has testified in congress that missions start in 2020.

It is documented that NASA intends to start BEO missions in 2020/1, anything else is nothing more than odds-making.  Probabilities are valid but they should be made in light of stated intentions.

[MP99]

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

1) The documents released during that conference at KSC indicate a number of BEO precursor missions starting in 2020

2) Regardless of what value anyone places on those documents, Bolden has testified in congress that missions start in 2020.

It is documented that NASA intends to start BEO missions in 2020/1, anything else is nothing more than odds-making.  Probabilities are valid but they should be made in light of stated intentions.

Those missions are Beyond Low Earth Orbit, but are EML / ESL / Lunar Orbit considered to be BEO, also? Those are all still within Earth's orbit, even if the dominant body is the Moon for eg Lunar Orbit.

None of these precursors exceed C3=0.

Not disputing your statement, other than to query terminology.

cheers, Martin

[Bill White]

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

Offer me a credible link showing firm plans to leave LEO by 2020/2021 and I will retract that portion of my comment.

Anyway, what is your understanding of the destination to be aimed at in 2020/2021 and what vehicles do you believe shall be used?

[Namechange User]

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

Offer me a credible link showing firm plans to leave LEO by 2020/2021 and I will retract that portion of my comment.

Anyway, what is your understanding of the destination to be aimed at in 2020/2021 and what vehicles do you believe shall be used?

Ahh, the crux of the situation. 

[yg1968]

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

1) The documents released during that conference at KSC indicate a number of BEO precursor missions starting in 2020

2) Regardless of what value anyone places on those documents, Bolden has testified in congress that missions start in 2020.

It is documented that NASA intends to start BEO missions in 2020/1, anything else is nothing more than odds-making.  Probabilities are valid but they should be made in light of stated intentions.

That is probably assuming that the ISS is deorbited in 2020. If it is extended to 2028 (as many of the international partners are hoping), you would still need to fund the ISS along with commercial crew until that time. I suspect that the only missions that we will be doing in the early 2020s (i.e. until the ISS is deorbited) is preparations for BEO using the ISS.  In a nutshell, I doubt that we can afford BEO until the ISS is deorbited.

[A_M_Swallow]

The proposed design for the large SEP tug has 84 mT of solar arrays.  Something will have to lift that large mass.

[SpacexULA]

The proposed design for the large SEP tug has 84 mT of solar arrays.  Something will have to lift that large mass.

Now that is an awesome idea.  Bid out a reusable tug as the propulsion module to deorbit the ISS at it's end of life.  It's got some GREAT points to it.

How many of Loral/Space Systems http://constellationservices.com/SSL_COTS_Fact_Sheet_Dec_2007.pdf
tugs would it take to deorbit ISS?

Heck Maybe place Dextre and Robotnaut on it.  Now that would be a scary looking spacecraft asking for a toy at the JSC gift shop.

(BTW I never got over Loral/Space Systems not getting the contract to build that spacecraft)

[DigitalMan]

I'm at work, but its in the congressional record.  go look it up yourself.

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

Offer me a credible link showing firm plans to leave LEO by 2020/2021 and I will retract that portion of my comment.

Anyway, what is your understanding of the destination to be aimed at in 2020/2021 and what vehicles do you believe shall be used?

Ahh, the crux of the situation. 

[DigitalMan]

If I recall, Bolden indicated it required the HLV to be in service by 2020, but no mention of ISS status.

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

1) The documents released during that conference at KSC indicate a number of BEO precursor missions starting in 2020

2) Regardless of what value anyone places on those documents, Bolden has testified in congress that missions start in 2020.

It is documented that NASA intends to start BEO missions in 2020/1, anything else is nothing more than odds-making.  Probabilities are valid but they should be made in light of stated intentions.

That is probably assuming that the ISS is deorbited in 2020. If it is extended to 2028 (as many of the international partners are hoping), you would still need to fund the ISS along with commercial crew until that time. I suspect that the only missions that we will be doing in the early 2020s (i.e. until the ISS is deorbited) is preparations for BEO using the ISS.  In a nutshell, I doubt that we can afford BEO until the ISS is deorbited.

[Robotbeat]

The proposed design for the large SEP tug has 84 mT of solar arrays.  Something will have to lift that large mass.

That's too big. Make it smaller. No need for a tug bigger than can be launched dry into LEO in a single piece on an EELV Heavy. That will give us a tug of at LEAST 1MW, on the high end (though I certainly expect the first tug to be smaller).

[yinzer]

The problem with an HLV has always been finding payloads for it.  What are the payloads for this new HLV supposed to be, and where is the money for them supposed to come from?

I respectfully disagree with your first statement.   I guess the money will come customers and from the tax payer - same as who will pay for the future SpaceX flights. 

Why do you disagree?  Saturn V went away with the end of Apollo, Energia went away with the end of Buran, NLS-heavy went away with the end of SEI and SDI, Shuttle-C went away because there was no need for it.

It's very likely that three years from now the new HLV will be running into schedule and cost problems, and there will be people trying to cancel it in favor of starting work on a new launch vehicle that will be cheaper and better, or at the very least to stretch out the development work.

If work on the first few payloads is not well underway at that point, the odds of the HLV effort surviving seem low.  Look at what happened to Ares.

[clongton]

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

Offer me a credible link showing firm plans to leave LEO by 2020/2021 and I will retract that portion of my comment.

Anyway, what is your understanding of the destination to be aimed at in 2020/2021 and what vehicles do you believe shall be used?

Ahh, the crux of the situation. 

That really is the crux of the situation because when Obama proposed to cancel Constellation, that essentially wiped out the VSE at the same time. And *that* is unfortunate because it is the VSE that defined where we were going and what we were going to do when we got there. It was *the* roadmap for American HSF for the next half century. So here we are now with an extended ISS and no way to effectively resupply it, and nowhere to actually go from there. All I see is a space agency imploding. And all I hear from those "knowledgeable sources" (snicker) is a lot of hot air and bellicose about Mars and NEO's but I have yet to see even ONE single concrete expression of a plan or ANY sign of actual commitment to do anything beyond selling out the American HSF program to Russia. CCDev? That's many, many years away.

Yes, the crux of the situation.

[A_M_Swallow]

The proposed design for the large SEP tug has 84 mT of solar arrays.  Something will have to lift that large mass.

That's too big. Make it smaller. No need for a tug bigger than can be launched dry into LEO in a single piece on an EELV Heavy. That will give us a tug of at LEAST 1MW, on the high end (though I certainly expect the first tug to be smaller).

The 1.2MW SEP tug is basically the Earth Departure Stage for the HLV.

I agree that the first tug is likely to have two VASIMR thrusters (200kW) rather than six thrusters.  However transporting a heavy cargo such as a lunar base will need both a heavy launch vehicle and a heavy tug.

[Robotbeat]

The proposed design for the large SEP tug has 84 mT of solar arrays.  Something will have to lift that large mass.

That's too big. Make it smaller. No need for a tug bigger than can be launched dry into LEO in a single piece on an EELV Heavy. That will give us a tug of at LEAST 1MW, on the high end (though I certainly expect the first tug to be smaller).

The 1.2MW SEP tug is basically the Earth Departure Stage for the HLV.

I agree that the first tug is likely to have two VASIMR thrusters (200kW) rather than six thrusters.  However transporting a heavy cargo such as a lunar base will need both a heavy launch vehicle and a heavy tug.

No heavy launch vehicle required.

[Namechange User]

The President has proposed that we delay any BEO mission until 2025 (with that mission being a flags and footprints NEO mission at that) however Congress has yet to dispose of that proposal.

This is completely FALSE.  The 2025 BEO mission is to an asteroid.  It did not rule out precursor missions. 

Offer me a credible link showing firm plans to leave LEO by 2020/2021 and I will retract that portion of my comment.

Anyway, what is your understanding of the destination to be aimed at in 2020/2021 and what vehicles do you believe shall be used?

Ahh, the crux of the situation. 

That really is the crux of the situation because when Obama proposed to cancel Constellation, that essentially wiped out the VSE at the same time. And *that* is unfortunate because it is the VSE that defined where we were going and what we were going to do when we got there. It was *the* roadmap for American HSF for the next half century. So here we are now with an extended ISS and no way to effectively resupply it, and nowhere to actually go from there. All I see is a space agency imploding. And all I hear from those "knowledgeable sources" (snicker) is a lot of hot air and bellicose about Mars and NEO's but I have yet to see even ONE single concrete expression of a plan or ANY sign of actual commitment to do anything beyond selling out the American HSF program to Russia. CCDev? That's many, many years away.

Yes, the crux of the situation.

All true. 

Of course there are some on here that refuse to acknowledge any of that, regardless of who says that and why. 

Hope, assumption, vague notions and a lack of a plan are sufficient for some because "change you can believe in" is everything and anything you want it to be. 

Ironically, it is the absence of anything else that allows this belief to continue to perpetuate, which you would think at this point in time would cause reason to be concerned.