Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : Starlink v1.0 L12 : KSC LC-39A : October 6, 2020 (11:29 UTC)  (Read 164696 times)

Offline zubenelgenubi

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NROL-44 launch apparently delayed 1 more day to September 28.

And:
According to the updated weather forecast, the launch is now planned for September 28.
Weather is 70% GO.
Noting that there is no back-up launch day with a weather forecast.  As of that posting, September 29 is not a back-up day.

OK, now what?
Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2020
September 26 27 28 - NROL-44: Orion 10 (RIO 10, Mission 8306, Mentor 8 ) (TBD) - Delta IV-H [D-385] - Canaveral SLC-37B  - 04:14 10 06?
September 30 - GPS III SV04 - Falcon 9 (B1062.1 S) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 01:55
September 30 - Cygnus NG-14 (CRS-14) - Antares-230+ - MARS LP-0A - 02:27
(??) September 27 28 October 1  - Starlink flight 13 (x60) [v1.0 L12] - Falcon 9-094 (B1058.3 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 14:43 22 13:17

Changes on September 25th
zubenelgenubi September 25th
zubenelgenubi September 26th

Would be launching 10 hours before Starlink, don’t see why they couldn’t do both as long as NROL gets off first.
I thought 16 hours was minimum turnaround time for the range?
34 hours between Delta IV-H and Falcon 9 launches.
10 hours between Delta IV-H and Falcon 9 launches?

Or, could the Starlink launch be delayed to immediately after the GPS launch?  Example: October 1.
The NRO and GPS launches are both for national security.  I believe that gives them priority?

EDITed September 26; see below.
« Last Edit: 09/26/2020 10:24 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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L-2 weather forecast still showing Sep 28th launch but seems doubtful (unless NROL-44 slips much further). FWIW 28th is 70% GO

Offline zubenelgenubi

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L-2 weather forecast still showing Sep 28th launch but seems doubtful (unless NROL-44 slips much further). FWIW 28th is 70% GO
Back-up launch day is a 72 hour delay, putting the launch on October 1.

Delta 4-Heavy launch delayed by ground system issue, dated September 24, updated on the 25th and 26th:
Quote
Sources later said the Falcon 9 launch from pad 39A was delayed to Thursday [October 1] at 9:17 a.m. EDT (1317 GMT).
« Last Edit: 09/26/2020 10:25 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/SpaceXFleet/status/1309996727571800069

Quote
It's getting very busy offshore! Dual droneship deployment!

OCISLY, GO Quest and Ms. Chief are in position to support the Starlink mission. Tug Hawk is towing JRTI towards the GPS LZ.

Ms. Tree is still docked in Morehead City - unclear if she will take part in either mission.

Online gongora

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Sometimes it feels like ULA is doing this on purpose…

ULA didn't stop the launch from happening a week and a half ago

Online gongora

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At this point I'm just waiting to see if Ken the Bin finds an updated NOTMAR for the launch or not.  With NROL-44 moving around so much, wonder if this could end up staying on the 28th.

Offline Ken the Bin

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At this point I'm just waiting to see if Ken the Bin finds an updated NOTMAR for the launch or not.  With NROL-44 moving around so much, wonder if this could end up staying on the 28th.

So far I haven't received anything even with the October 1st backup day indicated in the weather forecast.

The last thing I received for this launch is this notice yesterday with just September 28:
Quote from: NGA
252255Z SEP 20
NAVAREA IV 918/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   281407Z TO 281525Z SEP
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-39-11N 080-37-49W, 28-52-00N 080-25-00W,
      29-02-00N 080-12-00W, 29-00-00N 080-10-00W,
      28-50-00N 080-18-00W, 28-38-00N 080-29-00W,
      28-34-53N 080-34-27W, 28-38-28N 080-37-18W.
   B. 31-39-00N 077-20-00W, 33-15-00N 075-57-00W,
      33-40-00N 074-59-00W, 33-21-00N 074-25-00W,
      32-45-00N 074-32-00W, 31-25-00N 077-06-00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 901/20.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 281625Z SEP 20.

Plus this related "space debris" notice:
Quote from: NGA
252307Z SEP 20
HYDROPAC 2798/20(61,75,76).
INDIAN OCEAN.
WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 03, DNC 04, DNC 05.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   281618Z TO 281719Z SEP
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   29-43S 060-07E, 24-55S 064-27E,
   38-45S 084-30E, 45-12S 099-45E,
   49-46S 119-13E, 50-42S 138-19E,
   48-50S 156-44E, 51-46S 158-08E,
   54-42S 148-32E, 56-20S 131-03E,
   55-52S 107-50E, 49-11S 085-05E,
   34-32S 064-13E.
2. CANCEL HYDROPAC 2765/20.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 281819Z SEP 20.

Offline AndrewRG10

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Sometimes it feels like ULA is doing this on purpose…

ULA didn't stop the launch from happening a week and a half ago
But they did delay it, twice, I think…

Yeh but the spaceflight industry doesn't work like that. There's no conspiracy of any company trying to take down another by delaying a launch. Complete garbage and that's honestly on par with the flat earth conspiracy theorists.


Offline klod

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Is this date for this launch legit? Shouldn't SpaceX wait for Delta launch?
« Last Edit: 09/27/2020 02:01 pm by klod »

Offline Ken the Bin

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L-1 Weather forecast is 60% go.
https://www.patrick.af.mil/Portals/14/Weather/Falcon%209%20StarlinkV1_0-L12%20L-1%20Forecast%20-%2028%20SEP%20Launch.pdf?ver=pzeLCCXqEIYXFrCwNK0nBw%3d%3d
Note that this forecast does not have October 1 as a backup day, and in fact does not have a backup day at all, which matches the last notice from the NGA.


Offline klod

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Is this date for this launch legit? Shouldn't SpaceX wait for Delta launch?

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1310224828574478341
Aha, saw this tweet, again - unbelievable, SpX overruled the queue ULA with NROL launch.

Online gongora

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Is this date for this launch legit? Shouldn't SpaceX wait for Delta launch?

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1310224828574478341
Aha, saw this tweet, again - unbelievable, SpX overruled the queue ULA with NROL launch.

SpaceX didn't "overrule" anybody.  This is just how the schedule worked out when NROL-44 moved another day.

Offline klod

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Is this date for this launch legit? Shouldn't SpaceX wait for Delta launch?

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1310224828574478341
Aha, saw this tweet, again - unbelievable, SpX overruled the queue ULA with NROL launch.

SpaceX didn't "overrule" anybody.  This is just how the schedule worked out when NROL-44 moved another day.
So, why didn't they launch today?

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For your daily dose of rocketry:


Offline Lars-J

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SpaceX didn't "overrule" anybody.  This is just how the schedule worked out when NROL-44 moved another day.
So, why didn't they launch today?
Because at the time that could be decided the NROL-44 had not yet slipped (yet) again. SpaceX can’t launch immediately if given a chance, it takes time.

But I’m guessing this time they bet that there was a good chance NROL-44 might slip again, and told the range that they could be ready if that happened. And it did. So they now have one chance to launch before it. Should it scrub, however, it will have to jump back behind NROL-44.
« Last Edit: 09/27/2020 05:40 pm by Lars-J »

Offline klod

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https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1310218187439583232?s=20
Quote
Regardless we’ve come a long way since May, 2005, when SpaceX was told to wait indefinitely at Vandenberg for an NRO launch.
That was nice reminder.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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SpaceX didn't "overrule" anybody.  This is just how the schedule worked out when NROL-44 moved another day.
So, why didn't they launch today?
Because at the time that could be decided the NROL-44 had not yet slipped (yet) again. SpaceX can’t launch immediately if given a chance, it takes time.
Could be a labor issue.  What if many in the Falcon 9/Starlink launch campaign were given Sunday, today, the day off?  I assume they've been working a hectic schedule this month.  Is it worth the personnel wear and tear to suddenly call everyone back to stations one day early, for an internal payload?

To quote Gene Roddenberry, one always must factor in the "human equation."

Not looking for a big off-topic discussion.  Just putting that out here for collective consideration.

Also pointing this out for any future supervisors and managers.
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Offline soltasto

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Updated the "press kit"

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