Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM2 : May 27, 2020 : DISCUSSION (Read 407343 times)

Vettedrmr · « **Reply #40 on:** 03/23/2019 01:56 am »

I guess I'm not willing to go with the late 4th Qtr. date as a guess. From my experience in flight test (F-16, F-22, F-35), your 2nd flight is totally based on how your 1st flight went (in this case, apparently excellently), and what your 2nd flight test objectives are. In this case, the increase in objectives is pretty significant, with a decent amount of hardware change.

But, the big difference is IFA. I haven't read anything about when that's going to happen, but I expect that, since SpaceX put it on the table, they (both NASA and SpaceX) will run that test through the wringer almost as if it was a manned flight. Any test anomalies out of that flight will have to be dealt with.

And, by "dealt with", I don't necessarily mean "solved." In my world anomalies/deficiencies had to be understood to see if the flight could go on with procedural limitations, alternate means of verification (usually a different test scenario, not a simulation or analysis), etc. Then, if it was deemed to be a low enough risk to fly, then what impact did any imposed limitations have on the test objectives? If that was a big enough hit you didn't fly because there wasn't any reason to.

I imagine NASA and Spacex will run through a similar exercise. From all external acounts DM-1 was an outstanding success, with no new surprises beyond what was known prior to flight. So, if IFA goes as planned, then I expect the August-September timeframe that was posted up-thread. July would be amazing, but with no current date for IFA released (that I know of) that would seem optimistic.

Have a good one,
Mike

spacevogel · « **Reply #41 on:** 03/23/2019 10:04 am »

November, you say?.. That's what TASS is reporting now for DM-2 via "industry sources".

spacebleachers · « **Reply #42 on:** 03/23/2019 12:23 pm »

While I don't believe November isn't a possibility, I find it a little hard to believe that we have one person with knowledge of the current review results indicating his sources tell him August/September while the Russians are saying November.

gongora · « **Reply #43 on:** 03/23/2019 12:32 pm »

There isn't a real date for DM2 yet. They're all just planning dates that will be changing over the next few months. A lot of things still need to happen before DM2 is approved for launch.

Rondaz · « **Reply #44 on:** 03/23/2019 11:27 pm »

Almost Ready: SpaceX has work to do before Dragon is ready to carry crew

by Jeff Foust — March 21, 2019

https://spacenews.com/crew-dragon-finally-makes-it-to-space-but-theres-work-to-do-before-its-ready-to-carry-crew/

punder · « **Reply #45 on:** 03/23/2019 11:46 pm »

Quote from: rob2507 on 03/22/2019 06:51 pm

Same! Wait, how many of us have their birthday on 7/25?

Regardless, I'll be happy to see this mission launch safely, whenever it's ready.

Well actually the 26th for me--Apollo 15 was an awesome gift for my 10th birthday.

Hey, someone remind me never to read the comments to a space article on a general news site.

Llian Rhydderch · « **Reply #46 on:** 03/24/2019 10:05 am »

Quote from: woods170 on 03/22/2019 09:36 am

Quote from: PM3 on 03/22/2019 08:29 am
Quote from: Olaf on 03/22/2019 07:10 am
https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25

That's the same day as the last Delta IV M Launch (GPS III-2). But maybe Moscow time? Could the Eastern Range handle two launches on the same day?

No need to ask that question. Here's a piece of rocket-wisdom for you: the best way to guarantee that two rockets will NOT lift-off on the same day, is to schedule them on the same day.

I entirely agree with you woods170 for the DM-2 mission, but would add that for completeness, it needs an important qualification.

Given the legacy world systems that the various government space agencies have developed over decades, the best way to guarantee that two rockets will NOT lift-off on the same day, is to schedule them on the same day. This will still be true when DM-2 launches in 2H2019.

It need not be true for new methods and processes of launch, flight safety (AFTS), etc. as the economic incentives of NewSpace actors grow in priority and legacy launch operation ways gradually decline in the primacy they have today.

theonlyspace · « **Reply #47 on:** 03/24/2019 12:21 pm »

Does Space X have the next crew dragon Dragon Demo 2 even built yet? That is a question.

smoliarm · « **Reply #48 on:** 03/24/2019 12:31 pm »

Quote from: theonlyspace on 03/24/2019 12:21 pm

Does Space X have the next crew dragon Dragon Demo 2 even built yet? That is a question.

AFAIK, yes.
It is already built, and it's in testing now.

gongora · « **Reply #49 on:** 03/24/2019 01:12 pm »

At the NAC meeting in early December they showed a schedule for DM-2 with the capsule being ready for shipment to the launch site in early March. I very much doubt they held to that schedule, but the capsule should be getting close to completion.

Comga · « **Reply #50 on:** 03/24/2019 01:41 pm »

If SpaceX is no more than 2 weeks behind that schedule the DM-2 Dragon should be mated to its Trunk.
It’s sad that the process results in fewer updates on what should be very photogenic progress.
I don’t think the lack of photos is a reliable indication of lack of progress.

cppetrie · « **Reply #51 on:** 03/24/2019 02:00 pm »

Quote from: Comga on 03/24/2019 01:41 pm

If SpaceX is no more than 2 weeks behind that schedule the DM-2 Dragon should be mated to its Trunk.
It’s sad that the process results in fewer updates on what should be very photogenic progress.
I don’t think the lack of photos is a reliable indication of lack of progress.

They may have delayed putting on the backshell in case of the need for fixes or reworks based on the DM1 mission. When these slides were made DM1 was planned for January.

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #52 on:** 03/25/2019 11:21 am »

Be careful with "Russian sources". RIA source going with July. TASS source (almost the same day) going with November claiming chute redesign.

Some "educated flapping" over the chute that covered the capsule at splashdown, I'd bet.

All I've heard are good things per IFA (In Flight Anomaly) reviews.

Both dates are probably wrong. I'd go with somewhere in the middle, which will be a great result if we end the gap since STS-135 in 2011 (!!!) this Summer.

Bubbinski · « **Reply #53 on:** 03/25/2019 12:24 pm »

So if the truth is in the middle about DM-2’s launch date then the song “See You In September” would be appropriate. Knocking on wood for a good in flight abort test in the meantime.

abaddon · « **Reply #54 on:** 03/25/2019 02:09 pm »

Of course, any date we talk about right now depends on a clean in-flight abort test (I see I missed Bubbinski making that point in the previous post, oops). Let's keep our fingers crossed that goes well.

Thorny · « **Reply #55 on:** 03/25/2019 08:57 pm »

Quote from: Bubbinski on 03/25/2019 12:24 pm

So if the truth is in the middle about DM-2’s launch date then the song “See You In September” would be appropriate. Knocking on wood for a good in flight abort test in the meantime.

Or "September Morn", apt for the dawn of a new era in human spaceflight.

Tomness · « **Reply #56 on:** 03/29/2019 09:54 pm »

Quote from: Salo on 03/29/2019 08:20 pm

Current schedule of ISS flight events
UTC time is used in table

2019

NET July 8 - Dragon (SpX-18) launch [IDA-3 in trunk]
NET July 10 - Dragon (SpX-18) capture and berthing (to Harmony nadir) by SSRMS
July 25 - Dragon v2 (SpX-DM2) crewed launch [Hurley, Behnken]
July 26 - Dragon v2 USCV-1 (SpX-DM2) crewed docking (to Harmony PMA-2 / IDA 2) [Hurley, Behnken]
NET July - spacewalk (ISS U.S. EVA) from Quest airlock (IDA-3 Install & Outfitting)

NET Early August - Dragon (SpX-18) unberthing (from Harmony nadir) and releasing by SSRMS
NET Early August - Dragon (SpX-18) splashdown
August 5 - Dragon v2 (SpX-DM2) crewed undocking (from Harmony PMA-2 / IDA 2) and splashdown [Hurley, Behnken]

Acronyms:
USCV - US Crew Vehicle

Changes on March 29th

That would be cool if the schedules held. They could do it the EVA for IDA- 3 while they are there.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #57 on:** 04/03/2019 01:44 pm »

NASA has posted a commercial crew update (mainly on Starliner) that includes this DM-2 snippet:

Quote

SpaceX Demo-2 Update

NASA also is working with SpaceX to return human spaceflight launches to American soil. The company completed an uncrewed flight test, known as Demo-1, to the space station in March. SpaceX now is processing the same Crew Dragon spacececraft for an in-flight abort test. The company then will fly a test flight with a crew, known as Demo-2, to the station.

NASA's Commercial Crew Program and SpaceX are expected to reevaluate its target test dates in the next couple weeks.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-and-boeing-extend-starliner-crew-flight-test-duration-to-space-station-target-new

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #58 on:** 04/03/2019 02:29 pm »

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1113440866243371008

Quote

Statement from a SpaceX spokesperson: “SpaceX is on track for a test of Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort capabilities in June and hardware readiness for Crew Dragon’s second demonstration mission to the Space Station in July.”

Of course 'hardware readiness' doesn't allow for ISS schedule and I assume not all NASA approvals? So I expect NET Q3 remains correct for now.

Vettedrmr · « **Reply #59 on:** 04/03/2019 02:57 pm »

My guess is that a "hardware readiness" type review would be prior to the Launch Readiness Review (which happens after static fire?).

And, 3Q starts in July, so yeah, 3rd Qtr. sounds logical.

Have a good one,
Mike

Poll

Given the weather, do you think the launch will happen today?

Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM2 : May 27, 2020 : DISCUSSION (Read 407343 times)