SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM2 : May 27, 2020 : DISCUSSION

[tonya]

July is of course also the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11 launching from the same pad.

[leovinus]

From Eric Berger:

Regarding July target for Demo-2 (crew mission) for Dragon, per multiple sources:

That is too aggressive. Frankly, everyone would be thrilled to get that mission off this fall. Chances of a flight this year are probably even-money, or less.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1101236602276376577

[PM3]

Bridenstine quoted by Jeff Foust:

Also, when asked how confident he was those commercial crew vehicles would be carrying crews by the end of the year, he said he was very confident. “In fact, you can write in your article I’m 100% confident.”

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1101603206893916162

[NX-0]

Eric Berger
‏@SciGuySpace
Geyer: "We're looking at summer-fall for SpaceX's Demo-2 flight."

5:31 AM - 11 Mar 2019

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1105303706298273792

This is pretty encouraging. I've heard that August is the new target for Crew Dragon DM-2, which means that NASA is seriously looking at August/September as the current 'window' for the mission. Still, a lot could change pending deep DM-1 and in-flight abort data reviews.

[Vettedrmr]

That is good news.  I infer from that kind of statement that nothing adverse has shown up in the data reviews completed so far.  I know when we were reviewing data we looked at the highest risk stuff first, then dug our way through the rest of the systems.  Still have to look at everything, but so far so good.

Thanks for sharing, and have a good one,
Mike

[Olaf]

https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25
Docking: July, 26
Undocking and splashdown: August, 5

[ZChris13]

https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25
Docking: July, 26
Undocking and splashdown: August, 5

What a wonderful birthday present

[PM3]

https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25

That's the same day as the last Delta IV M Launch (GPS III-2). But maybe Moscow time? Could the Eastern Range handle two launches on the same day?

[woods170]

https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25

That's the same day as the last Delta IV M Launch (GPS III-2). But maybe Moscow time? Could the Eastern Range handle two launches on the same day?

No need to ask that question. Here's a piece of rocket-wisdom for you: the best way to guarantee that two rockets will NOT lift-off on the same day, is to schedule them on the same day.

[Vettedrmr]

https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25

Has anyone found any other data to back this claim up?  If so it speaks well of how good DM-1 went, as the schedule has been pulled to the left significantly from the original "summer/fall", which I interpret as they have much less re-work + new work than they were scheduling for.

Have a good one,
Mik

[Alexphysics]

That date is a very tentative date on the ISS schedule, take it as a placeholder, not as hard fact. Same goes for the August 17th date they have been talking about for Boeing's OFT. This is not even a NET date, just a date to work on and have on the schedule. Real one most probably be around fall.

[Vettedrmr]

That date is a very tentative date on the ISS schedule, take it as a placeholder, not as hard fact.

Still trying to learn NSF's network of sources: are Russian reports of NASA space activities a solid placeholder, with a fair degree of confidence, or a wet noodle guesstimate?

Thanks for the info, and have a good one,
Mike

[CorvusCorax]

That date is a very tentative date on the ISS schedule, take it as a placeholder, not as hard fact.

Still trying to learn NSF's network of sources: are Russian reports of NASA space activities a solid placeholder, with a fair degree of confidence, or a wet noodle guesstimate?

Thanks for the info, and have a good one,
Mike

They can be, if ISS is concerned.

The ISS schedule is closely coordinated with the international ISS partners at relatively early stage. This means journalists with good sources with international partners (not just Russians but also ESA, CSA, JAXA, ...) sometimes get a hold of tentative planning dates before NASA has published that info. Not just for visiting vehicles but also stuff like space walks, when and on which flight a specific science payload gets to the station, etc...

Needless to say, early planning dates always need to be taken with a huge grain of salt regardless where they come from, since they hardly ever hold.

[Alexphysics]

That date is a very tentative date on the ISS schedule, take it as a placeholder, not as hard fact.

Still trying to learn NSF's network of sources: are Russian reports of NASA space activities a solid placeholder, with a fair degree of confidence, or a wet noodle guesstimate?

Thanks for the info, and have a good one,
Mike

It's not that they are solid or not, it's that there's still a hell lot of to be done for DM-2 and this is just for planning purposes, not a firm date you should have to believe with all your heart and soul. The launch date for DM-2 will keep changing and it will change until the Flight Readiness Review is done and the launch is approved, the same that happened for DM-1. When will we see a firm launch date after that said FRR? My bet is on the November-December timeframe. SpaceX most probably will have the hardware ready by the end of the summer but we all know that when it comes to these missions it's not only the hardware that has to be ready, there are a ton of things to consider and if you saw the post-FRR briefing you'll know it's not only just paperwork, they sometimes discover things on the way to launch that need changes, issues arise and they need to make sure that doesn't compromise the mission and the safety of the astronauts (because on DM-2 there will be humans on it, it is a big deal).

And as a footnote: I don't know why but for Starliner updates russians have been late to the party a lot of times. I remember a few weeks ago they were saying OFT was April 20-something and that was the date Boeing was working on months ago. They have been more or less right with SpaceX's dates but, as I already said, these are just for planning purposes. You'll see this date will keep slipping to the right, the less it slips to the right, the closer you are to the final date (ie when it stops slipping, that's the good one).

[punder]

https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25
Docking: July, 26
Undocking and splashdown: August, 5

What a wonderful birthday present

Me too!!

[John Santos]

https://ria.ru/20190322/1552012520.html
Launch SpX-DM2 planned: July, 25
Docking: July, 26
Undocking and splashdown: August, 5

What a wonderful birthday present

Yup!  (7/25)

[rob2507]

Same! Wait, how many of us have their birthday on 7/25?

Regardless, I'll be happy to see this mission launch safely, whenever it's ready.

[Vettedrmr]

It's not that they are solid or not, it's that there's still a hell lot of to be done for DM-2 and this is just for planning purposes, ...

They can be, if ISS is concerned.

The ISS schedule is closely coordinated with the international ISS partners at relatively early stage. This means journalists with good sources with international partners (not just Russians but also ESA, CSA, JAXA, ...) sometimes get a hold of tentative planning dates before NASA has published that info.

Thanks, folks!  I've been lurking for quite a while now, just joined a few weeks ago.  Still getting up to speed.

Have a good one,
Mike

[Star One]

That date is a very tentative date on the ISS schedule, take it as a placeholder, not as hard fact.

Still trying to learn NSF's network of sources: are Russian reports of NASA space activities a solid placeholder, with a fair degree of confidence, or a wet noodle guesstimate?

Thanks for the info, and have a good one,
Mike

It's not that they are solid or not, it's that there's still a hell lot of to be done for DM-2 and this is just for planning purposes, not a firm date you should have to believe with all your heart and soul. The launch date for DM-2 will keep changing and it will change until the Flight Readiness Review is done and the launch is approved, the same that happened for DM-1. When will we see a firm launch date after that said FRR? My bet is on the November-December timeframe. SpaceX most probably will have the hardware ready by the end of the summer but we all know that when it comes to these missions it's not only the hardware that has to be ready, there are a ton of things to consider and if you saw the post-FRR briefing you'll know it's not only just paperwork, they sometimes discover things on the way to launch that need changes, issues arise and they need to make sure that doesn't compromise the mission and the safety of the astronauts (because on DM-2 there will be humans on it, it is a big deal).

And as a footnote: I don't know why but for Starliner updates russians have been late to the party a lot of times. I remember a few weeks ago they were saying OFT was April 20-something and that was the date Boeing was working on months ago. They have been more or less right with SpaceX's dates but, as I already said, these are just for planning purposes. You'll see this date will keep slipping to the right, the less it slips to the right, the closer you are to the final date (ie when it stops slipping, that's the good one).

That’s a highly depressing prognosis as the way these things go it sounds like it is more likely to be 2020. No wonder they purchased the additional Soyuz seats.

I wonder how many people watching the last Shuttle launch would have realised the US would be out of the human spaceflight business from US soil for almost a decade.