Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 445787 times)

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1100 on: 06/01/2023 04:33 pm »
Shame they don't have an extra West Coast barge. It would let SLC-4E achieve a launch tempo on par with SLC-40. With the lower commercial demand,  SLC-4E would also be mostly Starlink missions.

I love VSFB flights but I think they would run out of high inclination Starlink flights pretty quickly at that flight cadence. 

I think they currently are only licensed for 30 west coast lights per year.  Which has always seemed unattainable until recently.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1101 on: 06/01/2023 04:56 pm »
I love VSFB flights but I think they would run out of high inclination Starlink flights pretty quickly at that flight cadence.

They appear to be planning mid-inclination Starlink deployments from Vandy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1102 on: 06/09/2023 12:07 am »
Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.
« Last Edit: 06/09/2023 12:15 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1103 on: 06/09/2023 07:36 am »
Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

If EchoStar XXIV / Jupiter-3 wants to launch in August, it has to do so between USSF-52 and Crew-7 (=Early-August). Otherwise the turnaround will be too long and it will have to be delayed to NET September. That leaves no room for a regular Falcon 9 launch.

Edit:
NextSpaceflight (Updated ~June 9th)
Launch NET September 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6944

With Jupiter-3 now NET September, SpaceX could possibly fit a single Falcon 9 launch between USSF-52 and Crew-7. Jupiter-3's delay will likely also impact Polaris Dawn (currently September), and delay it to NET Late-October due to Psyche taking priority in Early-October.
« Last Edit: 06/09/2023 11:06 am by GewoonLukas_ »
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1104 on: 06/10/2023 07:04 pm »
Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

Similarly with
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 8:
Quote
A Falcon 9 will launch the Satria communications satellite for Indonesia from pad 40 on June 19, in the evening EDT

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 9:
June 19 5:54 pm EDT = 21:54 UTC

there is a seven day gap between Transporter 8 and Satria.
SpaceX's recent average gap is now half this, 3.6 days.
There are also over 17 days after Satria from LC-40 before USDD-52 from LC-39A.
Is this enough time to convert LC-39A from Heavy to single stick and back, to fit in another Starlink launch?
(Could they just move the two outermost, side hold-downs and leave the four outer front and back holddowns in place?)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline SpeakertoAnimals

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1105 on: 06/10/2023 07:10 pm »
Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

Similarly with
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 8:
Quote
A Falcon 9 will launch the Satria communications satellite for Indonesia from pad 40 on June 19, in the evening EDT

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 9:
June 19 5:54 pm EDT = 21:54 UTC

there is a seven day gap between Transporter 8 and Satria.
SpaceX's recent average gap is now half this, 3.6 days.
There are also over 17 days after Satria from LC-40 before USDD-52 from LC-39A.
Is this enough time to convert LC-39A from Heavy to single stick and back, to fit in another Starlink launch?
(Could they just move the two outermost, side hold-downs and leave the four outer front and back holddowns in place?)
Do they actually move the hold-downs on the dual purpose TE?

Online GewoonLukas_

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1106 on: 06/11/2023 07:00 am »
Will there be "room" for a launch from LC-39A that does not require that launch complex, between USSF-52 and Crew-7?

However, Jupiter 3 could launch in August.  IM-1 launch is NET Q3.

Similarly with
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 8:
Quote
A Falcon 9 will launch the Satria communications satellite for Indonesia from pad 40 on June 19, in the evening EDT

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 9:
June 19 5:54 pm EDT = 21:54 UTC

there is a seven day gap between Transporter 8 and Satria.
SpaceX's recent average gap is now half this, 3.6 days.
There are also over 17 days after Satria from LC-40 before USDD-52 from LC-39A.
Is this enough time to convert LC-39A from Heavy to single stick and back, to fit in another Starlink launch?
(Could they just move the two outermost, side hold-downs and leave the four outer front and back holddowns in place?)
Do they actually move the hold-downs on the dual purpose TE?

Somewhere between CRS-22 and CRS-23, they installed the outer front and back holddowns, the outer side holddowns were already installed by that time, and they've kept it that way since. That means that they only need to remove the inner side ones that they use for Falcon 9 in order to get it into Falcon Heavy configuration.
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Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1107 on: 06/20/2023 09:39 pm »
Starlink 5-15 is the last scheduled launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰
1245-EX-ST-2023   Starlink 5-15, Mission
NET July from Florida [July 8]
ASDS North  28  29  11   West  80  32  51



NextSpaceflight (Updated June 20th)
Launch NET 6 July 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7168
Also from NextSpaceflight:
Quote
This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.
« Last Edit: 06/20/2023 09:52 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1108 on: 06/20/2023 09:43 pm »
Starlink 5-15 is the last launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰
1245-EX-ST-2023   Starlink 5-15, Mission
NET July from Florida [July 8]
ASDS North  28  29  11   West  80  32  51



NextSpaceflight (Updated June 20th)
Launch NET 6 July 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7168
Also from NextSpaceflight:
Quote
This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.

End of the v1.5's, wow, onward we go.

we've gotten use to the flight cadence, but the deployment rate is incredible.  Amazing how they build, launch and operate so many birds.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Offline Josh_from_Canada

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1109 on: 06/20/2023 10:03 pm »
Starlink 5-15 is the last scheduled launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰
1245-EX-ST-2023   Starlink 5-15, Mission
NET July from Florida [July 8]
ASDS North  28  29  11   West  80  32  51



NextSpaceflight (Updated June 20th)
Launch NET 6 July 2023
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7168
Also from NextSpaceflight:
Quote
This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.

If that's the case then the missions with v1.5 satellites that won't be launched are 2-2, 2-3, 4-24, 4-28, 4-30, 4-32, 4-33, 5-8, and 5-14
Launches Seen: Atlas V OA-7, Falcon 9 Starlink 6-4, Falcon 9 CRS-28,

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1110 on: 06/20/2023 10:15 pm »
Starlink 5-15 is the last scheduled launch of v1.5 Starlink satellites: 🛰
<snip>
Also from NextSpaceflight:
Quote
This is the last planned launch of Starlink v1.5 satellites.

If that's the case then the missions with v1.5 satellites that won't be launched are 2-2, 2-3, 4-24, 4-28, 4-30, 4-32, 4-33, 5-8, and 5-14

SpaceX could launch those missions with ver 1.6  :)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1111 on: 06/23/2023 05:06 pm »
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 23:
Quote
<snip>
Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40 on July.

Same source, June 24:
Quote
<snip>
Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40 on July TBD.
« Last Edit: 06/24/2023 02:53 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1112 on: 06/26/2023 08:31 pm »
With the FH launches sliding right, I wonder if LC39A will be reworked to handle some single stick F9's (Starlink) while we wait?

Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Offline Elthiryel

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1113 on: 06/27/2023 10:09 am »
With the FH launches sliding right, I wonder if LC39A will be reworked to handle some single stick F9's (Starlink) while we wait?
They could probably do it, but with SLC-40 achieving very short turnaround periods, I think that droneship availability due to the transfer time is a bigger constraint for ASDS flights right now. And it looks like there are no RTLS flights planned from Florida until mid-August (Crew-7).
« Last Edit: 06/27/2023 10:10 am by Elthiryel »
GO for launch, GO for age of reflight

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1114 on: 06/27/2023 05:08 pm »
With the FH launches sliding right, I wonder if LC39A will be reworked to handle some single stick F9's (Starlink) while we wait?
They could probably do it, but with SLC-40 achieving very short turnaround periods, I think that droneship availability due to the transfer time is a bigger constraint for ASDS flights right now. And it looks like there are no RTLS flights planned from Florida until mid-August (Crew-7).

100% agree, SLC40 has been operating in Beast Mode, but moving to LC39A for awhile could allow them to start stacking the crew tower without interruption.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1115 on: 06/28/2023 07:14 pm »
Some Vulcan NSSL missions to move to SpaceX?

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1674133237160091648

Quote
ULA confirms Vulcan debut will launch NET 4Q 2023. It seems almost certain now that some NSSL Phase 2 missions will move from Vulcan to Falcon.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/06/ula-shipping-vulcan-upper-stage-back-to-factory-for-more-work/

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1116 on: 06/29/2023 05:46 pm »
Quote
At press bfg right now, ESA DG Josef Aschbacher says they've decided to launch EarthCARE on a Falcon 9 instead of Vega-C both bc Vega-C return to flight will be delayed due to test failure and spacecraft requires cutouts to fairing and don't want to make changes at this point.

Sounds like four Galileo satellites could also be moved over to Falcon 9:

Quote
They don't have to like it: @esa launching science mission w/ @SpaceX this weekend, then Earth obs mission in 2024, followed by 4 @defis_eu #Galileo sats pending security review. https://bit.ly/3CUm5ZE

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1674472603820478464
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1117 on: 06/29/2023 06:46 pm »
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1674472603820478464
Quote
They don't have to like it: @esa launching science mission w/ @SpaceX this weekend, then Earth obs mission in 2024, followed by 4 @defis_eu #Galileo sats pending security review. https://bit.ly/3CUm5ZE

ESA and SpaceX: Euclid science satellite is next, then Earth observation and navigation satellites in 2024
written by Peter B. De Selding June 29, 2023
LA PLATA, Maryland — The European Space Agency (ESA), as expected, is moving more of its launches to SpaceX given delays in European government-financed rockets and the fact that in today’s medium- and heavy-lift launcher market, just about all roads lead to the SpaceX Falcon 9 — for ESA along with commercial customers.

The most recent transfer is of the ESA-Japan EarthCare solar-radiation satellite. Likely to come is the launch of four Galileo positioning, navigation and timing satellites, ESA officials said June . . .

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1118 on: 06/30/2023 01:52 pm »
Tory doesn’t agree more NSSL flights moving to SpaceX:

Quote
ULA confirms Vulcan debut will launch NET 4Q 2023. It seems almost certain now that some NSSL Phase 2 missions will move from Vulcan to Falcon.

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1674711512496078848

Quote
Very unlikely

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1119 on: 06/30/2023 06:11 pm »
I am very excited to see the Euclid flight tomorrow. 

An escape trajectory will be different and interesting to see the performance of the F9 US.

IT's time to pull some G's.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

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