If we assume that ISRU development will be iterative, the first couple of BFRs will have to be one-way. I doubt that the entire ISRU process will work flawlessly on the first attempt.
So they need a steady supply of BFS but the boosters? Not so much. This is why I think they will be built in Hawthorn for the medium term.So leading on from the handful of boosters needed, how many spaceships per booster?
This just a silly thread. Nobody knows the answer. Not even SpaceX.
Quote from: Jim on 10/04/2017 02:27 pmThis just a silly thread. Nobody knows the answer. Not even SpaceX.Saying SpaceX doesn't know is silly. Did NASA roll dice to determine how many Shuttles to build? Of course not. They had a plan and so does SpaceX.
They want the booster to last hundreds or even thousands of times, there is a big possible range this could eventually fall in.
A more interesting question:How many BFRs can SpaceX afford to build? How many flights does that translate to?[...]
Quote from: RonM on 10/04/2017 06:04 pmQuote from: Jim on 10/04/2017 02:27 pmThis just a silly thread. Nobody knows the answer. Not even SpaceX.Saying SpaceX doesn't know is silly. Did NASA roll dice to determine how many Shuttles to build? Of course not. They had a plan and so does SpaceX.They don't really though... No one doesThey want the booster to last hundreds or even thousands of times, there is a big possible range this could eventually fall in.The low cost of BFR could lead to gigantic increases in the number of space launches, or more modest increases. Demand is therefore ultimately unknown, and falls within a large (many orders of magnitude) possible range.The amount of BFBs you'll need is a unknown number with a huge variance (demand) divided by an unknown number with a smaller, but still large variance (life of BFB). The signal/noise ratio is unfavorable, getting it within even an order of magnitude would be tough.