Chinese crewed lunar program

[JohnFornaro]

Interesting article in the WaPo yesterday about China's space plans:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/22/AR2011012203747.html

As China eyes the stars, U.S. watches warily

By Keith B. Richburg
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 23, 2011

IN BEIJING China's grand ambitions extend literally to the moon, with the country now embarked on a multi-pronged program to establish its own global navigational system, launch a space laboratory and put a Chinese astronaut on the moon within the next decade.

[Liss]

So Washington Post is yellow press now. Because Chinese do not eye Moon in ten years. What they did approve is a Mir-like space station by 2020, and this would take all the manned spaceflight resources.

[aquanaut99]

For the love of God, let's stop this "Red Chinese Moon!" scare some ill-informed journalists seem intent on launching.

China will not land a man on the moon by 2020. China's manned space program is very slow, deliberate and measured. Let's not forget they only launched 3 manned spacecraft during the last decade. And the next big step is planned for this and next year: Tiangong-1/SZ-8/9/10, which is nothing more than a recreation of 1970s Salyut. And China's objective this decade is a spacestation by 2020.

Even if China's manned space program is likely to pick up speed once the Hainan launch center and CZ-5 become operational (2015), there is really no chance (and no intention either) of putting a man on the moon by 2020. There were some rumours about a tentative date (2025), but nothing official, and even that would be extremely ambitious.

[Jason1701]

Even if they were committed to going to the Moon this decade, they'd be liable to the same schedule slips and cost increases that Constellation saw.

[Downix]

Their capsules are lunar capable, they have a lander under development and their HLV, we don't know. Frankly, they may be slow, but it is more than possible.

[nickyp]

Got numbers and sources to back those up?

China will not be on the moon for 2020, as has been said before, a 20 ton space station is on the cards with Tiangong sized modules.

[Namechange User]

I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  I see this in a lot of places on the internet and it is easy to say all "we're all friends", "what's the threat", "where is the proof", etc. 

I really do not understand this mentality and I hope this is not an indication of the mass public's perception because that usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.  It's not like they are not actively, although they will officially tell you otherwise, preparing to go head-to-head with the United States.  Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials.  Hell, it was even timed for when the SecDef was there.  Shouldn't that say something?

In the end, maybe they are not doing any of this.  Yet, given the above, the "proof" that so many demand has a certain irony because no one can "prove" they are not doing anything in secret and they don’t have these interests and desires.  After all, their development will be much shorter.  The head wind with respect to that development that the USA and others fought against is no longer there and through "alternate procurement means" and say, Russia, they can have it much quicker than many like to give credit or choose to ignore. 

Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared.  The current POTUS and others need to stop sucking-up to China and realize this. 

[Downix]

Quite correct OV.

This is what we do know:

They will have a vehicle superior to our Delta IV within 2 years.  Don't buy the claim it's just slightly weaker, I've done the math.  They've presented 4 booster assisted configurations, of which the boosters used as off of smaller rockets.  They have not presented any of the LM5 configurations utilizing the LM5 first stage w/ high-thrust engine configuration.  The LM5 development photographs show that the LM5 is fully capable of this clustered approach, similar to out 5 CBC DeltaIV.  By my math, this makes the LM5 capable of lifting 33mT into orbit.  Their 2nd/3rd stage unit weighs, fully loaded, 25mT.  Their capsule fully loaded is 8mT.  25 + 8 == 33.  So, in short, the LM5, in it's maximum configuration, is capable of lifting a fully loaded capsule with a fully loaded upper stage into orbit.  The US has already demonstrated in-orbit capability and maneuvering.  The Space Station is a great place to test in-orbit rendezvous. 

Let's add all of this up: 
Ability to rendezvous - check
Ability to bring a fully manned capsule to the Lunar area - check

All we are missing now is the landing and return part.  Landing will be tested next year with their robotic exploration team.  Return will be tested in 2014/2015 with their lunar sample return team.  At that point, with those systems tested, frankly, what is to stop them?

[spacex]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

While the Chinese have come a long way in a short period of time, they have a long way to go in developing the technology and perhaps more crucially the requisite experience. Their manned space station is already a very ambitious project and consume much of their resources for the next decade.

[Namechange User]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

[spacex]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces by using acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

[Namechange User]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces from acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

I see.  Are these the same type of "experts" that also study the Chinese military, which of course controls their space program, who got caught with their britches down regarding the stealth fighter?

[spacex]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces from acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

I see.  Are these the same type of "experts" that also study the Chinese military, which of course controls their space program, who got caught with their britches down regarding the stealth fighter?

The stealth fighter was well known to be in development for at least 1-2 decades. It did not appear out of thin air, which is what you seem to be suggesting.
We are deviating from the main topic of discussion. That is China's manned moon plans, or more accurately the lack of such program.

[Namechange User]

Most Western reporting has about potential manned moon plans are clearly not based on fact. One often is left wondering whether these journalists do basic research or ask Chinese space experts. If they would do this they would realize that no such program exists and will not likely appear for many years.

Really?  Because "western reporters" have total access to high ranking Chinese officials?  Because these Chinese officials are absolutely certain to tell the truth?  Because the history of these Chinese officials is so pure that there is no logical way to assume that they wouldn't be telling you the absolute truth in every aspect?

Again, the whole "open society" thing.....

No, my concern is that western reporters have not even attempted to substantiate their pieces from acknowledged experts in the US on the Chinese space program such as Joan Johnson-Freese. These experts certainly have studied Chinese space program closely and would easily be able to tell fact from fiction.

I see.  Are these the same type of "experts" that also study the Chinese military, which of course controls their space program, who got caught with their britches down regarding the stealth fighter?

The stealth fighter was well known to be in development for at least 1-2 decades. It did not appear out of thin air, which is what you seem to be suggesting.
We are deviating from the main topic of discussion. That is China's manned moon plans, or more accurately the lack of such program.

Um, ok. 

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awst/2011/01/03/AW_01_03_2011_p18-279564.xml&headline=null&next=10

"One question that may go unanswered for a long time concerns the degree to which cyberespionage has aided the development of the J-20. U.S. defense industry cybersecurity experts have cited 2006—close to the date when the J-20 program would have started—as the point at which they became aware of what was later named the advanced persistent threat (APT), a campaign of cyberintrusion aimed primarily at military and defense industries and characterized by sophisticated infiltration and exfiltration techniques.

Dale Meyerrose, information security vice president for the Harris Corp. and former chief information officer for the director of national intelligence, told an Aviation Week cybersecurity conference in April 2010 that the APT had been little discussed outside the classified realm, up to that point, because “the vast majority of APT attacks are believed to come from a single country.”

Between 2009 and early 2010, Lockheed Martin found that “six to eight companies” among its subcontractors “had been totally compromised—e-mails, their networks, everything,” according to Chief Information Security Officer Anne Mullins."

Sure, no threat there at all.

Given your post history here is nearly 100% related to China, can you provide the absolute proof that China is being totally open and does not have these plans?  I figure turn about is fair play.  Thanks!

[aquanaut99]

Given your post history here is nearly 100% related to China, can you provide the absolute proof that China is being totally open and does not have these plans?  I figure turn about is fair play.  Thanks!

Personally, I am willing to put my hand in the fire that China will not land a man on the moon by 2020. I'd even be extremely surprised if they did it before 2025, although I don't doubt that they will eventually succeed (if they don't lose interest first).

Why? Like I said, because China's manned space program hasn't really accomplished that much during the last decade. They have reached the level of the Soviet Union ca 1969 (without the N1), but advanced no faster than what the Soviets did in the sixties (though with far fewer launches), even though they had all the knowledge available from the start and didn't have to research/figure it out first.

Also, as far as spying is concerned: How can it advance the cause of a manned moon-landing? All the info needed to replicate Apollo is freely available. And there is nothing that spying in the US could accomplish in this matter, since the USA is itself no longer capable / no longer has the know-how to land men on the moon...

[JMS]

It's obvious John Q. US public doesn't see MSF as a critical priority at this moment in time. So, I for one am cheering China on. Could be the best thing to happen to US manned spaceflight.

[Downix]

We are deviating from the main topic of discussion. That is China's manned moon plans, or more accurately the lack of such program.

The Chinese Government seems quite adamant that they have one, even have a nice website dedicated to it with pictures of the equipment to be used:

http://www.clep.org.cn/

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.

[Namechange User]

Also, as far as spying is concerned: How can it advance the cause of a manned moon-landing? All the info needed to replicate Apollo is freely available. And there is nothing that spying in the US could accomplish in this matter, since the USA is itself no longer capable / no longer has the know-how to land men on the moon...

Who said they were going to replicate Apollo?  The Chinese are now building domestic airliners.  They didn't start with the Wright Flyer first.  See the parallels. 

[Downix]

Also, as far as spying is concerned: How can it advance the cause of a manned moon-landing? All the info needed to replicate Apollo is freely available. And there is nothing that spying in the US could accomplish in this matter, since the USA is itself no longer capable / no longer has the know-how to land men on the moon...

Who said they were going to replicate Apollo?  The Chinese are now building domestic airliners.  They didn't start with the Wright Flyer first.  See the parallels. 

Why would they want to replicate Apollo?  There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals.  The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.

[aquanaut99]

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.

Sorry, but I just had to laugh out loud when I read that.

How many times have we seen plans for bases on the moon, studies where to place them and so forth from NASA over the past few decades? And what did we get for it?

IIRC, in 1969 NASA had plans for bases on the moon, Mars and even a manned mission to Titan by the turn of the millenium...

Why should China be any different?

[Namechange User]

Why should China be any different?

Based on the other information I have pointed to, what's wrong with assuming they are?  Especially given the huge differences in structure of our two societies?

[Downix]

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They have completed the rocket to launch their space station, and the announcement states that it will be launched later this year.

Sorry, but I just had to laugh out loud when I read that.

How many times have we seen plans for bases on the moon, studies where to place them and so forth from NASA over the past few decades? And what did we get for it?

IIRC, in 1969 NASA had plans for bases on the moon, Mars and even a manned mission to Titan by the turn of the millenium...

Why should China be any different?

You have never studied Chinese history.  They have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support.  They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach.  You don't invest in such a broad architecture if you don't intend to use it.  It's not a case of "this looks good on paper" by any stretch.  They have hardware already under construction for many pieces.  This is the process of the Chinese.  And they do not start such things if they do not intend to complete it.

[aquanaut99]

Why would they want to replicate Apollo?  There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals.  The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.

I never said the Chinese would re-create Apollo (I agree, they'd be pretty stupid if they did, and the Chinese are anything but stupid). I was merely addressing the point about Chinese spying giving them an advantage in this hypothetical "new moon race", pointing out that info on the only sucessful manned moon program is freely available and therefore there is no need for spying.

The Chinese will probably do things differently. Therefore they will have to figure it out for themselves, spying is no use. Unless they want to copy Constellation... not.

Incidentally, no need to spy for alternatives, either. They just have to read the posts on this forum...

Finally, I am not afraid if China does land on the moon. I wish them all the best and will gladly cheer them on. And if, by some miracle, they prove me wrong, I won't be unhappy either! For it would be a great day for humanity.

[aquanaut99]

You have never studied Chinese history.

Actually, I know quite a bit of Chinese history. Far more, I'll wager, than the average Westerner. I spent a good deal of my childhood in Asia, China included...

They have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support.  They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach. 

There, you've just proved my point. Moon by 2020 is recreating Apollo, no other way to do it. Sustainable, long term, is the clever way to do it, but it won't get you to the moon by 2020. QED.

Incidentally, the Chinese are right to try this path and I have every confidence that they will be sucessful (unless they follow the US example and lose interest).

Again, I will gladly cheer them on, and I will pop the champagne bottle for them when the first Chinese citizen sets his or her foot on lunar soil somewhere around or after 2025.

[Downix]

Why should China be any different?

Based on the other information I have pointed to, what's wrong with assuming they are?  Especially given the huge differences in structure of our two societies?

From my viewpoint, the Chinese have studied both the US and Russian moon programs, and are doing every step to avoid the mis-steps.  We succeeded, but the cost was so great it could not be sustained.  The Russians fractured approach could have been sustained, but the super-large rocket was too expensive to develop fully.  They looked at launchers from around the world, other architectures.  And they learned from all of them.

Their current approach looks to be a modest one, by US standards in comparison to Saturn, but unlike Saturn, when completed, it will be sustainable.  Like the US program, they are doing dedicated steps to prove each piece of capability, as part of a larger project.  Like the EELV and Angara, they are focusing on commonality to keep the costs down.  Like the Russians, their focus is on minimalist approaches, less frills to get the job done. 

They are in line for a far longer reaching space program than the US or Russia seem capable of at this point.

[Downix]

You have never studied Chinese history.

Actually, I know quite a bit of Chinese history. Far more, I'll wager, than the average Westerner. I spent a good deal of my childhood in Asia, China included...

They have not gone for some pie in the sky approach, needing 4 Sat V launches a year to support.  They've gone for a sustainable long-term approach. 

There, you've just proved my point. Moon by 2020 is recreating Apollo, no other way to do it. Sustainable, long term, is the clever way to do it, but it won't get you to the moon by 2020. QED.

Incidentally, the Chinese are right to try this path and I have every confidence that they will be sucessful (unless they follow the US example and lose interest).

Again, I will gladly cheer them on, and I will pop the champagne bottle for them when the first Chinese citizen sets his or her foot on lunar soil somewhere around or after 2025.

What is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace?  They'll have had a space station for over 9 years.  They'll have the lift capability.  They'll have both the landing and return capability.  By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.

[Namechange User]

Why would they want to replicate Apollo?  There are other, more cost-effective options for doing the same goals.  The Chinese seem to be aiming right at those options.

I never said the Chinese would re-create Apollo (I agree, they'd be pretty stupid if they did, and the Chinese are anything but stupid). I was merely addressing the point about Chinese spying giving them an advantage in this hypothetical "new moon race", pointing out that info on the only sucessful manned moon program is freely available and therefore there is no need for spying.

The Chinese will probably do things differently. Therefore they will have to figure it out for themselves, spying is no use. Unless they want to copy Constellation... not.

Incidentally, no need to spy for alternatives, either. They just have to read the posts on this forum...

Finally, I am not afraid if China does land on the moon. I wish them all the best and will gladly cheer them on. And if, by some miracle, they me wrong, I won't be unhappy either! For it would be a great day for humanity.

So to sum it up:

Supposedly all Apollo designs, specs, processes, etc are freely available but Apollo sucks and the Chinese are much better than that.

Because they are much better than that, they'll do it differently. 

Because they'll do it differently, spying is no big deal.  The things they are trying to spy on have no direct potential use for military and/or space applications.

Because they are spying and clearly none of this has potential military and/or space applications, they only have our best interests at heart.

Because they only have our best interests at heart, you will cheer them on.

That is brilliant!

[aquanaut99]

What is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace?  They'll have had a space station for over 9 years.  They'll have the lift capability.  They'll have both the landing and return capability.  By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.

The answer is again given in the question. Their current pace being one manned launch every 2 or 3 years.

I highly suspect the launch rate will go up after the completion of the Hainan launch site (which will probably become the main launch site for manned programs). But that won't be until 2015. And the Chinese still have far too little experience. Compare the number of (US and Soviet) launches before the first landings were attempted.

Also, the Chinese are an inherently cautious people. While the Americans are more "gung-ho", if you pardon the cliche. They will not, IMO, attempt a manned lunar landing until they are absolutely sure they have the experience and know-how to get it done. And they are right, IMO. They are not in a race and have all the time in the world.

When you can look back on 5000 years of history and civilization, a few years more or less do not make a difference.

[Downix]

What is to prevent them by 2020, on their current pace?  They'll have had a space station for over 9 years.  They'll have the lift capability.  They'll have both the landing and return capability.  By 2017, they will have every single piece needed for a manned landing, already demonstrated.

The answer is again given in the question. Their current pace being one manned launch every 2 or 3 years.

I highly suspect the launch rate will go up after the completion of the Hainan launch site (which will probably become the main launch site for manned programs). But that won't be until 2015. And the Chinese still have far too little experience. Compare the number of (US and Soviet) launches before the first landings were attempted.

Also, the Chinese are an inherently cautious people. While the Americans are more "gung-ho", if you pardon the cliche. They will not, IMO, attempt a manned lunar landing until they are absolutely sure they have the experience and know-how to get it done. And they are right, IMO. They are not in a race and have all the time in the world.

When you can look back on 5000 years of history and civilization, a few years more or less do not make a difference.

They have two manned launches planned in the next 24 months.  If you ever noticed, their period between manned launches keeps getting shorter and shorter.  This is their Gemini program, although it began as their Mercury. 

You are right, they are not in a race.  But you are wrong in assuming that they will definitively not have the capability nor experience by 2020.

The Hainan Space Complex is almost complete, due to come online in either late 2012 or early 2013, just as they transition from the existing program to the next program. 

[aquanaut99]

They have two manned launches planned in the next 24 months.  If you ever noticed, their period between manned launches keeps getting shorter and shorter.  This is their Gemini program, although it began as their Mercury. 

I had the opposite impression: 2003 (SZ5), 2005 (SZ6), 2008 (SZ7), 2012 (SZ 9 and 10, SZ 8 is to be unmanned). But the sample is too small to make a meaningful statistic.

You are right, they are not in a race.  But you are wrong in assuming that they will definitively not have the capability nor experience by 2020.

The Hainan Space Complex is almost complete, due to come online in either late 2012 or early 2013, just as they transition from the existing program to the next program. 

CZ-5 won't launch before 2014 and will become operational even later. And delays will certainly strike elsewhere, also. The Chinese are not immune to them. Tiangong-1 and SZ 8 have already suffered several delays.

Again, if, by some miracle, the Chinese do manage to land on the moon before 2020, I will gladly admit I was wrong. I will be happy for them. And I can't understand why some people here see that as a threat.

The moon has no military value. If the Chinese want to militarize space, they don't need to go to the moon, nor develop a lunar program. In fact, they can do it (and probably are doing it) right now with the technology and know-how they have already. And they don't need taikonauts for that as MOL and Almaz proved 40+ years ago.

[hop]

http://www.clep.org.cn/

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

Sure you do. Look at how many paper studies NASA and RSA have done compared to what they have flown. Paper studies of what the space agency folks would like to do given unlimited budget should not be confused with funded programs. Statements from space agency officials of what they would like to do, or could do given the money should also not be confused with funded programs.

When it comes to China, Russia and India, much of the western press appears hell bent on conflating these things at every available opportunity. The article in the OP is a fine specimen of the type. Lots of big claims, very little sourced official material.

Could the Chinese land a man on the moon within the decade if they decided it was a national priority ? There is no reason to doubt that they could.

Has the government committed to funding such a venture ? There isn't any evidence they have, and some strong reasons to believe they have not.

As Liss said, what they have *actually* committed to doing is a Mir class space station. To date, their public statements about the direction of their manned program appear to have been accurate, give or take the inevitable schedule slips that affect space programs everywhere.

[Joris]

http://www.clep.org.cn/

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

Sure you do. Look at how many paper studies NASA and RSA have done compared to what they have flown. Paper studies of what the space agency folks would like to do given unlimited budget should not be confused with funded programs. Statements from space agency officials of what they would like to do, or could do given the money should also not be confused with funded programs.

When it comes to China, Russia and India, much of the western press appears hell bent on conflating these things at every available opportunity. The article in the OP is a fine specimen of the type. Lots of big claims, very little sourced official material.

Could the Chinese land a man on the moon within the decade if they decided it was a national priority ? There is no reason to doubt that they could.

Has the government committed to funding such a venture ? There isn't any evidence they have, and some strong reasons to believe they have not.

As Liss said, what they have *actually* committed to doing is a Mir class space station. To date, their public statements about the direction of their manned program appear to have been accurate, give or take the inevitable schedule slips that affect space programs everywhere.

Whilst in America a new president will most likely change direction and cancel big projects, in China they don't since their goverment doesn't change much over the years. Also China has a tendency to do things large-scale, I have no doubt that once they commit themself to a lunar landing in 2025-ish, they will create a permanent base shortly after.

[Patchouli]

It is possible if they use a very light weight architecture similar to ELA.
http://www.nss.org/settlement/moon/ELA.html

Technically Japan or France also could land someone on the moon by 2020 if they put forth a serious effort to do so.

In some ways despite not having flown a manned spacecraft these two countries are much farther ahead technically speaking.
Ariane 5 and the H-IIB are already powerful enough to launch all or most elements of ELA.
Pretty much all they need is a lander and a crew vehicle both countries have tested all the major systems for one.

Personally I think the first to return to the moon will likely be a private US company as Dragon is already capable of a Mars reentry let alone a lunar reentry.
Other vehicles such as the CST-100 and Dream Chaser hint at being upgradable to BEO flight.

[go4mars]

I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.   Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials. 

 Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. 

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.

Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, designing thorium nuclear reactors (partly to make Pu-238) etc., etc., etc.  it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 

[Patchouli]

I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.   Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials. 

 Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. 

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.

Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, lots more subs, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, etc., etc., etc.  it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 

I doubt it they have yet to launch an EELV class LV.

It would be Ares V all over again and their space program's budget is much smaller then NASA's.
Flying a smaller 25 to 100MT vehicle often would be much cheaper.
Plus the all Chinese moon plans I have seen make use of the 25T class Long March 5.

As for their little economic and political games I think it's going to bite them in the end.
Those manufacturing jobs can be easily moved the India or Mexico.
Plus their cheap labor is about to be rendered obsolete but advances in robotics and rapid prototyping.
The high energy costs already are making shipping so expensive the dirt cheap labor in China is no longer such a good deal.
You might save money paying $2 an hour having your product assembled in Mexico vs 50 cents in China and having to pay through the nose to get it shipped.
Shipping it from lets say Brazil or Mexico would take 1/8 to 1/4 the energy it takes to ship from China.
Domestic production would be the least of all.

[nickyp]

I find it rather funny that people are worried about China militarising space, when the USA had the X-37 above China's heads for three quarters of a year...

[Downix]

I'm not sure why people are so quick to downplay the Chinese and their potential goals and accomplishments in the coming decade.  ...usually leads to the "gotcha moment".  It's not like China is an open society.   Their military is building up, they are actively engaging in cyber warfare against US systems, they are keeping their currency deliberately de-valued in order to hurt our economy, they are "stealing" US products, etc.   

The recent unveiling of their "stealth" fighter should tell you something about this possibility.  It was not expected by US officials. 

 Instead, there is nothing wrong in this case with assumption and being prepared. 

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.

Since they are building the largest ice-breakers on earth, stocking up on submarines, already have more high-speed rail than any other country, they are building an aircraft carrier, lots more subs, have demonstrated satellite capabilities that they deny having, likely fired a missile from a sub off the california coast a few months ago, have been stockpiling all kinds of metals, uranium, and oil, have cut-off supply of Rare Earth Elements to the rest of the world, etc., etc., etc.  it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 

I doubt it they have yet to launch an EELV class LV.

It would be Ares V all over again and their space program's budget is much smaller then NASA's.
Flying a smaller 25 to 100MT vehicle often would be much cheaper.
Plus the all Chinese moon plans I have seen make use of the 25T class Long March 5.

As for their little economic and political games I think it's going to bite them in the end.
Those manufacturing jobs can be easily moved the India or Mexico.
Plus their cheap labor is about to be rendered obsolete but advances in robotics and rapid prototyping.
The high energy costs already are making shipping so expensive the dirt cheap labor in China is no longer such a good deal.
You might save money paying $2 an hour having your product assembled in Mexico vs 50 cents in China and having to pay through the nose to get it shipped.
Shipping it from lets say Brazil or Mexico would take 1/8 to 1/4 the energy it takes to ship from China.
Domestic production would be the least of all.

Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html

[hop]

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/ur700m.htm

Zhang Guitian (Apparently a Chinese "acamedician") was talking at a conference in 2006 referring to Chinese PLANS to build something on the scale the UR-700M.

Source ? Actual quote ? What kind of "plan" ? A sketch on the back of a napkin of what they would like to do, or something the politburo had committed billions of dollars to ?

it stands to reason that leaked information from 5 years ago about a Chinese 750 metric ton to orbit launcher is truly a possible scenario. 

Leaked ? There's no evidence Chinese are hiding any major LV projects. They appear to fairly open about actual LV developments and their manned plans, certainly more so than the Soviets ever were. See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=18605.0 and http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8447.0 for things they are actually working on.

The idea that they are building a > Saturn V class rocket in a secret parallel program is absurd.

[go4mars]

Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html

So maybe they plan to strap a bunch of long-march 5's together or some related idea. 

[Downix]

Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html

So maybe they plan to strap a bunch of long-march 5's together or some related idea. 

As I mentioned above, studying the Long March 5's first stage, it is more than capable of being clustered in the right manner.  In addition, they have already revealed two main engine configurations for it, a medium-high-thrust / moderate isp and a moderate thrust/high isp.  The discussions coming out mention a more powerful engine under development as well, with no mention of a rocket for it to go on.  I suspect the reason why is that there is no new rocket for it to go on.

[Patchouli]

Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html

It also was never built instead the very different Energia rocket flew.

The CZ-5-504 lifts about 25T into LEO it uses four CZ-5-300 boosters.
The 25T LM-5 already uses five CZ cores not sure there is a direct route to 100+ T like Delta IV.
The CZ-500 core looks too heavy to fly on it's own the boosters appear to be necessary.
40 or 50T might be doable with out too many changes to tooling.
Now the interesting part is they claim they might be able to produce up to 30 CZ-5 units a year.
Not sure if this is complete vehicles or first stage/booster units.
But it seems they're going for flight rates vs a large payload.
They only spend 2 maybe at most 3 billion a year on spaceflight a government HLV is just going to be wishful thinking on that budget.

Also brings to light how efficient private operations are.
F9 is functionally equivalent to LM-5 and Dragon exceeds Shenzhou across the board.

[Downix]

Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html

It also was never built instead the very different Energia rocket flew.

The CZ-5-504 lifts about 25T into LEO it uses four CZ-5-300 boosters.
The 25T LM-5 already uses five CZ cores not sure there is a direct route to 100+ T like Delta IV.
The CZ-500 core looks too heavy to fly on it's own the boosters appear to be necessary.
40 or 50T might be doable with out too many changes to tooling.
Now the interesting part is they claim they might be able to produce up to 30 CZ-5 units a year.
Not sure if this is complete vehicles or first stage/booster units.
But it seems they're going for flight rates vs a large payload.
They only spend 2 maybe 3 billion a year on spaceflight a government HLV is just going to be wishful thinking on that budget.

I think it depends on if they can deliver the 600 ton engine that was mentioned awhile back. 

[JohnFornaro]

It's not like China is an open society.  It's not like they are not actively, although they will officially tell you otherwise, preparing to go head-to-head with the United States.

I'd be scared poop-less to visit China the way I talk; the government of a billion people is scared of a man who got the Nobel Peace Prize.  Over here, if you say something that offends the powers that be, you get your post deleted.  Over there, you get deleted.

My feeling is that China will do what it determines that it wants to do, regarding HSF, and anything else.  And clearly, if they can get to the Moon in a decade, then they will have bragging rights.  It is no longer about getting there first, an idea which is lost on our President; it is about getting there and staying.

Pragmatically speaking, they have got to be more technically advanced than the US was in 1959.  There should be no technical reason that they cannot accomplish this goal within a decade, but that is not a prediction nor a guarantee.  We did it then, why couldn't they do it now?

As to the WaPo becoming more of a yellow press than it ever used to be; I am not surprised.  Of course their circulation is dropping; there is little useful information in too many news articles.  One Advanced Persistant Threat that the Chinese could use to great advantage is the intellectual paucity displayed by so many American journalists.  But I digress.

And OV:  I found your quote from Dale Meyerrose to be a little vague: "...the vast majority of APT attacks are believed to come from a single country."  Uhhhh...  Which country?  Luxembourg?  Andorra?

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They could also be practising their PowerPoint skills.  Just sayin'.

[hop]

Pragmatically speaking, they have got to be more technically advanced than the US was in 1959.  There should be no technical reason that they cannot accomplish this goal within a decade, but that is not a prediction nor a guarantee.

Agreed. There is absolutely no reason to believe they couldn't. There are fairly good reasons to believe their leadership has not yet committed the resources required to do so.

Their current program is operated in a very careful, incremental manner, and the pace seems to be limited in part by a desire to keep costs down. To date, they have not exhibited any tendency toward crash programs or high risk, one-off propaganda spectaculars. Getting to the moon in 10 years at the current pace would be difficult, and IMO impossible if they do the other things they have explicitly committed doing. They are clearly building a space station, and that will keep them busy through at least 2016. Probably more, given inevitable slips and setbacks. Presumably they will operate it for a while after it is completed. Even if they turn seriously toward the moon in 2016, a 2020 crewed landing would be a stretch. Mid to late 2020s would seem more likely.

The pace may changes, but based on past experience, it will probably be obvious if it happens. To date, the Chinese have been fairly open about the direction of their manned program. They've consistently said what they are going to do and done it. There doesn't appear to be any compelling reason to hide this, so it's reasonable to expect the same behavior to continue.

There seems to be a theme in some of these posts (in this thread and other similar threads, not JohnFornaro's quoted above) that China would somehow benefit by springing a surprise moon mission on the world. What's missing is any rational explanation of how this benefits them over announcing it in advance (as they have done with their program to date) and following through.

[JohnFornaro]

Their current program is operated in a very careful, incremental manner, and the pace seems to be limited in part by a desire to keep costs down.

The only thing I would add is that they also appear to be proceeding "slowly" to avoid spectacular failures, which would not reflect well on the regime.

[tigerade]

I think a Chinese moon mission would be pretty dang cool.  It'd be the first manned mission to the moon that I've seen in my lifetime.  It'd be cool to see the taikonauts bounce around while being filmed by modern cameras.  I enjoyed seeing the spacewalk video from a couple years ago.

[butters]

China won't go do any manned missions to the moon until they're comfortable with their space station program. They'll move forward in a logical progression. Unlike the United States, which aimed for the moon before laying any groundwork for an ongoing exploration program.

Werner von Braun laid out the roadmap to manned space exploration: first you built a space station, they you build a moon base, and then you go to the mars. This has been widely established as the most sensible way to proceed.

This is also the kind of long view that doesn't play well in the U.S. but suits the Communist Party of China just fine. They'll be around to take credit for the future successes that build on the steps they're taking today.

[JohnFornaro]

Just bumping this thread to point out that China did not build a lunar base in the last decade.

[Vahe231991]

China won't go do any manned missions to the moon until they're comfortable with their space station program. They'll move forward in a logical progression. Unlike the United States, which aimed for the moon before laying any groundwork for an ongoing exploration program.

Werner von Braun laid out the roadmap to manned space exploration: first you built a space station, they you build a moon base, and then you go to the mars. This has been widely established as the most sensible way to proceed.

This is also the kind of long view that doesn't play well in the U.S. but suits the Communist Party of China just fine. They'll be around to take credit for the future successes that build on the steps they're taking today.

China is lucky that it is not in a lunar space race with America because any unmanned lunar missions it has conducted (and continues to launch) have been tailored for peaceful purposes. The Long March 9 moon rocket is scheduled to launch in the 2030s, and since the US is in the lead in preparing to send humans back to the moon with the Starship and SLS, the China National Space Administration will have good reason to take a slow steady pace in planning to send humans to moon and possibly build a lunar base rather than hastily catch up with NASA in manned lunar exploration plans.

[Timothytyy]

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1650329077298118657

WU Weiren, chief designer of China's lunar exploration program: "Chinese will set foot on the Moon before 2030. There's no doubt about it."

What a great promise. Let's wait and see.

[JohnFornaro]

Chief designer of China's lunar exploration program: "Chinese will set foot on the Moon before 2030. There's no doubt about it."

Well, good for them.  Accentuate the positive.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1663023215143444481

One major announcement by CMSA in the Shenzhou-16 press briefing is the crewed lunar landing in full swing, including Long March 10, lunar lander, new generation crewed spacecraft, lunar space suits, heavy rocket launch facility, etc.
And, they say BEFORE 2030

[native chicken]

The earliest planned lunar landing time in China is around 2025.
The Chinese lunar landing plan is a two-step process, with the first stage being to use mature rocket technology (2-3 rockets) to create an Apollo level lunar landing plan in 2025, with a minimum total LEO mass of 70-150 tons. The second stage is to use heavy carrier rockets as cargo rockets, with a timeline of 2030. In an interview article with an academician in 2019, it was stated that the development of heavy carrier rockets was initially planned to take 20 years (2011-2030).
The initial planned lunar landing plan used the CZ5DY rocket, which is a fully liquid oxygen kerosene version of the CZ5 rocket with takeoff stage power. The transportation capacity is approximately LEO50t and LTO 15-20t. This matter was mentioned in the article by Academician Long Lehao in 2009 and 2010.
In 2013, a local publication in Shanghai called Xinmin Weekly revealed in an interview with relevant personnel that the country had suspended research on lunar rockets and demanded full completion of space station construction. There was a problem with the static pressure test of the storage tank of the CZ5 rocket back then.
The re development of the lunar rocket was from 2017 to 2018. This time, the need for reuse has been added. The takeoff scale is larger.

[Steven Pietrobon]

It was announced at the Shenzhou 16 press conference that China aims to walk on the Moon by 2030. The CZ-5DY is now called the CZ-10. Two launches will be used for the Lunar landing. The first will send the lander and the second the crewed orbiter. Models of all three vehicles were recently shown.

[shijiav]

It was announced at the Shenzhou 16 press conference that China aims to walk on the Moon by 2030. The CZ-5DY is now called the CZ-10. Two launches will be used for the Lunar landing. The first will send the lander and the second the crewed orbiter. Models of all three vehicles were recently shown.

I read the SZ16 press conference they said "2030年前" which should means before 2030, Isn`t 'by 2030' meaning 2030 is included?

[Phil Stooke]

Before the beginning of 2030 or the end of 2030?

[Vahe231991]

It was announced at the Shenzhou 16 press conference that China aims to walk on the Moon by 2030. The CZ-5DY is now called the CZ-10. Two launches will be used for the Lunar landing. The first will send the lander and the second the crewed orbiter. Models of all three vehicles were recently shown.

I read the SZ16 press conference they said "2030年前" which should means before 2030, Isn`t 'by 2030' meaning 2030 is included?

They may be referring to before 2030, given that the maiden launch of the Long March 10 is currently targeted for 2027.

[shijiav]

Before the beginning of 2030 or the end of 2030?

“2030年前” usually means before the beginning of 2030 in Chinese which is '<2030'

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Article from late April:

https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1664394641192677377

“The Moon will have access to TV, games and WiFi.”

“We are building an [internet] satellite constellation around the moon, that can provide communication, navigation, and remote sensing services,” Wu Weiren, chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program revealed this week.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-04-25/China-to-perform-crewed-lunar-landing-before-2030-Chief-designer-1jhGzYsnRg4/index.html

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Here’s a helpful infographic summarising China’s crewed lunar architecture:

https://twitter.com/tommosoba1/status/1665011631028305923

#NASA aims to get back on the moon by 2025 as #CHINA space programme aim for its first test in 2027 in race that could herald new terrestrial prospects

Original graphic available from:

https://www.graphicnews.com/en/pages/44348/space-china-moon-race

[Vahe231991]

I found this old thread about China's manned lunar exploration ambitions for the sake of relevance to the topic of this thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=2919.0

Back in 2006, anonymous CNSA officials were were quoted by a Hong Kong newspaper as saying that China was hoping to conduct the first manned mission on the Moon's surface by 2024. Of course, even though development of the Long March 9 began in the mid-2010s, we know that the CNSA's target window of 2024 for a manned lunar moonwalk was tentative and quite too ambitious given that China at the time didn't develop the know-how to try to make a rocket engine for a lunar SLV work.

[native chicken]

I found this old thread about China's manned lunar exploration ambitions for the sake of relevance to the topic of this thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=2919.0

Back in 2006, anonymous CNSA officials were were quoted by a Hong Kong newspaper as saying that China was hoping to conduct the first manned mission on the Moon's surface by 2024. Of course, even though development of the Long March 9 began in the mid-2010s, we know that the CNSA's target window of 2024 for a manned lunar moonwalk was tentative and quite too ambitious given that China at the time didn't develop the know-how to try to make a rocket engine for a lunar SLV work.

There is indeed a plan of manned lunar landing in 2024. Academician Long Lehao openly proposed in the literature in 2009 and 2010 that China's space lunar landing should not be implemented later than Japan's and India's lunar landing plans, so it is planned to carry out manned lunar landing around 2024.
However, after the global financial crisis in 2008, the progress of countries exploring the moon slowed down. On approximately December 5, 2013, Xinmin Weekly reported that China had suspended the implementation of its lunar landing plan (2024) (P1). Afterwards, China readjusted its manned lunar landing plan. The scheme of International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) is proposed.

Figure 2 shows the Chinese translation of the impact of European influence on the ILRS program advocated by China before the launch of the Artemis program in 2017. The person who wrote this article is actually putting pressure on the US government to make it understand that if he does not initiate the lunar landing program again. The United States will lose leadership over the Earth Moon space mission. I can't find the original text. It should have been published in the Daily Mail of the UK, or in foreign policy or other publications of the United States.

[otter]

China unveils preliminary plan on manned lunar landing

https://english.news.cn/20230712/6539c747af6b434ea27f991d0bcdbc33/c.html

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/cnsawatcher/status/1679373607946862594

CNSA/CMS’s latest CG concept pictures of its lunar rover, lunar lander and lunar research station. Source: buff.ly/3pIOkYv

[Steven Pietrobon]

The third image seems to show a transportable Lunar base docked to a pressurised rover and possibly a nuclear electric generator in the background, with a circular radiator on top.

[Alter Sachse]

[Steven Pietrobon]

The LK lander lives!

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[Dalhousie]

Thought it appropriate to have a separate thread for this, given this week's announcement of the names for the lunar ferry and lunar lander

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202402/24/WS65d9506aa31082fc043b8df2.html

China unveiled on Saturday the names of its manned lunar lander and new crew spaceship.

According to a news release from the China Manned Space Agency, the lunar lander that will carry Chinese astronauts to the moon's surface is named Lanyue, or Embracing the Moon, which first appeared in a poem written by the late Chairman Mao Zedong in 1965.

The word "Lanyue" symbolizes the Chinese people's aspiration and confidence in their exploration of the universe and expedition to the moon, it said.

The name of the new crew spaceship is Mengzhou, or Dream Vessel, which represents its responsibility of fulfilling the Chinese nation's dream of landing on the moon to start a new journey of space adventure, according to the agency.

It noted that there will be two models of the Mengzhou - one will be used to transport astronauts to the moon while another will replace the current spaceship Shenzhou to ferry crew members between Earth and the Tiangong space station, which has been orbiting around the Earth for nearly three years.

The names were picked by a group of experts from nearly 2,000 proposals solicited from the public.

The Chinese Manned Space Agency media release is here (in Chinese, but Chrome will automatically translate)

https://en.cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202402/t20240224_55093.html

(of course if there is already such a thread, apologies for duplication)

[TheKutKu]

The article says that the vehicle has a diameter of 4.5m, but it was my understanding that it is the return capsule that is 4.5m wide*, with the vehicle, service module included, being somewhat wider (~5m, being somewhat inline with the 5m wide launcher), I'm a bit confused. There were also more recent conflicting reports of diameter. Does anyone have more accurate information?

*Based on this article, http://m.news.cctv.com/2020/05/08/ARTIw6g3GIoDktnFnWUhvEzG200508.shtml, the Capsule flown in 2020 was 4.5m wide.

Attachment is from "Architecture research on reusable technologies of china's next-generation manned spacecraft", September 2023, I annoted the right

[Blackstar]

https://www.leonarddavid.com/chinas-moon-agenda-in-accelerated-pace/

[Steven Pietrobon]

Thought it appropriate to have a separate thread for this, given this week's announcement of the names for the lunar ferry and lunar lander

Thanks for the information, but this thread could have been used. That thread started in 2011 with its last post in 2023, which just goes to show how long the Chinese have been planning a Moon landing! Perhaps the moderators could merge these threads.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23919.0

Edit by moderator: Done.

[Steven Pietrobon]

Bing translation of the Chinese article.

The name of the new vehicle for China's manned lunar exploration mission has been officially determined
Release date: 2024-02-24
Source: China Manned Space Engineering Network

Recently, the name of the new vehicle for China's manned lunar exploration mission has been determined, the new generation of manned spacecraft has been named "Mengzhou", and the lunar lander has been named "Lanyue".
After the construction of China's space station is completed, landing on the moon has become the next goal for Chinese to explore space. With the full launch of the lunar landing phase of the manned lunar exploration project, the naming of new vehicles for manned lunar exploration has also been put on the agenda.
In August 2023, the China Manned Space Engineering Office launched a solicitation of names for new manned lunar exploration missions for the public, which attracted widespread attention and enthusiastic participation from the whole society, and received nearly 2,000 submissions from organizations and people from all walks of life in the fields of aerospace, science and technology, and cultural communication. After expert selection and review, the new generation of manned spacecraft was named "Mengzhou" and the lunar lander was named "Lanyue".
The name of the new aircraft has distinctive Chinese characteristics, characteristics of the times and cultural characteristics. "Mengzhou" means that manned lunar exploration carries the Chinese's space dream, starts a new journey of space exploration, and also reflects the system inheritance with the Shenzhou and Tianzhou spacecraft families; the new generation of manned spacecraft includes two models: the lunar version and the near-earth version of the subsequent space station mission, of which the lunar version adopts "Mengzhou" (spacecraft name + capital initial of the syllable of the word "moon"). "Catching the Moon" is taken from Chairman Mao's poem "You can go up to the moon in nine days", highlighting the heroism and confidence of Chinese in exploring the universe and landing on the moon. Previously, the new generation of manned launch vehicles had been named "Long March 10".
At present, the Mengzhou spacecraft, the Lanyue lander, and the Long March-10 carrier rocket have fully entered the stage of initial sample development, and all work is progressing smoothly.

(Editor in charge: Hao Yizhan)

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Official statements made during the Shenzhou 18 pre-launch press conference today:

* The upcoming to-be-chosen-soon 4th Chinese astronaut class will include members that will perform lunar landings
* Testing of the Long March 10 rocket are in full swing & engines testing are in progress
* Construction has now begin for its launch facilities at Wenchang SLS
* The design for Chinese lunar excursion suits has been completed
* Thermal testing for the new crew spacecraft Mengzhou & lunar lander Lanyue are "basically completed" and initial design completed for start of prototype construction

[eeergo]

A couple of days ago, a target date for a crewed lunar landing by China was set as 2028, although in today's presentation they kept it at a more temperate "before 2030".

Some slides from the lunar crewed program presentation today:

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[Spiceman]

Damn, imagine if the chinese nail a) MSR and b) manned lunar return;  either in 2028 or 2030.
And, the way things goes with Artemis II and MSR - before the USA. I know it is not a race, Apollo style, but it would be impressive nonetheless.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/cnsawatcher/status/1850073995258810416

CNSA plans moon exploration: Chang'e 7 (2026) to study resources, Chang'e 8 (2028) for testing, and manned landing (2029-2030) with "Dreamboat" spacecraft and "Embrace Moon" lander. Source:m.weibo.cn/status/ODjmf57…

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1851085006963425451

CMSA has selected two proposals, designed by SAST and CAST, of lunar roving vehicles into the round of prototyping before the final decision of which to carry out the human lunar landing mission. https://www.cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202410/t20241028_55835.html

[Satori]

China's new astronauts to receive training for lunar landing missions.

China's fourth batch of astronauts is currently undergoing training for the country's space missions, including the future moon landing, a spokesperson with the China Manned Space Agency said on Tuesday.

[Satori]

China fully advances manned lunar landing program.

China is pressing ahead with its mission to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030, moving quickly with development and construction to turn this goal into reality, the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) announced at a press conference on Tuesday.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Video:

https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1859476667133288845

Preview of China's crewed lunar landing mission, targeted for before 2030.

[Steven Pietrobon]

Video shows deployment and operation of the Chinese Lunar rover.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Video:

https://twitter.com/aj_fi/status/1859481830778347667

China's crewed lunar lander separation test here, plus crewed spacecraft, EVA suit, lunar rover and rocket test in this clip from a new video from China's human spaceflight agency mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6upoIt3eEEFu…

https://twitter.com/aj_fi/status/1859485958531387582

Another look at the Lanyue lander prototype from the separation test

[TheKutKu]

Mengzhou under assembly, and during a drop test.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[Steven Pietrobon]

Rover model going out for a spin!

Spaceport. Looks like three pads, but only one with lightning protection. There are five large buildings. A dual bay medium, two single bay medium and two single bay high. The two high buildings seem to server the right pad with the lightning towers while the medium buildings serve the two pads at left, which seem to have a shorter gantry tower. Perhaps the two left pads are for CZ-10, while the right pad could be for CZ-9.

Three engine test of CZ-10?

[tangdou8]

Rover model going out for a spin!

Spaceport. Looks like three pads, but only one with lightning protection. There are five large buildings. A dual bay medium, two single bay medium and two single bay high. The two high buildings seem to server the right pad with the lightning towers while the medium buildings serve the two pads at left, which seem to have a shorter gantry tower. Perhaps the two left pads are for CZ-10, while the right pad could be for CZ-9.

Three engine test of CZ-10?

The 2nd image is the rendering of the Wenchang Launch Center in 2026.

[Steven Pietrobon]

Thanks tangdou8! We can see that work has started on the CZ-10 pad and groundwork for the assembly buildings along with the new dual bay CZ-5/CZ-7 assembly building.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[Steven Pietrobon]

Seems they have quite a bit of hardware that might be tested in LEO in the next few years.

[TheKutKu]

https://www.cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202502/t20250214_56299.html

The CMSA is organising a call for bids for the development (or co-development, it seems the CMS-Engineering Office will still be involved) of a "lunar remote sensing satellite" to "mainly obtains high-precision topography and landforms, distribution of major mineral resources and signature minerals in the low-latitude area of ​​the moon"  to "support the implementation of China's first manned lunar landing and subsequent missions."

Do note that this is a CMSA project and therefore not directly related to the Chang'e missions.

[JSz]

The source of this photo (or rather presentation) is unknown, but according to it, the Chinese are still planning a crewed landing on the Moon in 2029.

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1913094757506826293

So some kind of presentation shows the 2029-targeting Chinese boots on the Moon mission as using 4th & 5th launches of the LM-10. Apparently the 3 before it will launch (w/o people) Mengzhou & Lanyue test flights towards lunar orbit/surface, + a crew test flight in lunar orbit.

[TheKutKu]

https://news.cctv.com/2025/06/13/ARTIUl89Ayirn03zkOZ1x5Gz250613.shtml

Why is an escape system needed in crewed spaceflight missions?

When a rocket ignites and lifts off, any malfunction could pose a significant threat to the astronauts' lives. So, how can we ensure their safety in an emergency? The answer lies in the crewed launch escape system, often referred to as the astronauts’ “Life Tower.”

Why is an escape system necessary?

In crewed spaceflight, human life is paramount. China’s manned space program has always adhered to the principles of quality first and safety foremost, prioritizing astronaut safety above all else. The launch escape system is a vital safety mechanism used during manned spaceflights to carry astronauts in the return capsule to safety in the event of a rocket explosion or malfunction, either on the launchpad or during ascent.

Why conduct flight tests of the escape system?

To verify the overall feasibility and design performance of the escape system, dedicated flight tests are typically necessary.

Escape system flight tests generally fall into two categories:

 The first is the zero-altitude escape test. The initial altitude from the ground is low, the flight time is short, and the flight sequence is extremely compact. In order to meet the requirements for safe and reliable parachute opening during return landing, the escape tower should meet certain performance conditions and be verified;

The second is the maximum dynamic pressure escape test. The ascending stage of the carrier rocket needs to ensure that the spacecraft escape capability and the escape landing area meet the conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to verify the escape trajectory and control feasibility, and comprehensively consider the harsh escape environment conditions and the adequacy of the test verification.


Zero-altitude escape test

"Zero altitude" refers to the initial altitude and speed are both zero. In 1998, my country successfully carried out the first and only zero-altitude escape flight test. This test simulated the zero-altitude escape and rescue flight of the Shenzhou spacecraft when the carrier rocket failed on the launch pad.

In the zero-altitude escape flight test, the return capsule of the test ship separated normally from the escape vehicle, and the actions of the return capsule parachute hatch, the opening of the guide parachute, the opening of the deceleration parachute, and the opening of the main parachute were all normal, verifying the correctness of the overall design of the launch vehicle system and the working ability of the spacecraft emergency life-saving system.

Maximum dynamic pressure escape test

In order to simulate the failure of the Long March 2F launch vehicle near the maximum dynamic pressure, my country successfully implemented the maximum dynamic pressure slide rail test in 1996, using the rocket pry to conduct three grid wing release and deployment tests under maximum dynamic pressure conditions, simulating the resistance of the grid wing and evaluating the influence of aerodynamic force on the structure of the escape vehicle.

How is the escape system of the “Mengzhou” spacecraft designed?

As a critical system for astronaut safety, China’s next-generation crewed spacecraft Mengzhou has a fully optimized escape system designed using MBSE (Model-Based Systems Engineering) methods. The Mengzhou spacecraft is designed for both crewed lunar exploration and near-Earth space station missions—two mission types that differ significantly in launch process, sequence, trajectory, and ground track, posing new challenges for the escape system’s compatibility.

Compared to near-Earth missions, lunar missions using the Long March 10 rocket involve larger scale and higher explosive potential, with different failure modes and escape conditions than the conventional Long March 2F. Additionally, unlike the inland launches of the Shenzhou spacecraft, Mengzhou will launch from a coastal site with more complex weather and dense nearby infrastructure, and its ascent trajectory passes mainly over the ocean. Therefore, Mengzhou’s escape system must have stronger acceleration capacity, better adaptability, and active control over landing zones.

Designed to ensure safe escape throughout the entire launch phase, Mengzhou uses a combined system of in-atmosphere escape tower and out-of-atmosphere full spacecraft escape. The escape tower handles escape from launchpad through tower jettison, after which the service module provides propulsion for escape up to spacecraft-orbital separation. The return capsule then takes over for continued control and rescue, maximizing integration and resource reuse.

Based on the escape modes and system design, the research team identified and addressed key technical challenges including escape trajectory and control, structural separation, aerodynamics, propulsion, power supply, and data systems—each through dedicated studies, simulations, and testing.

For instance, the main escape engine and separation motors have both undergone full-scale hot-fire testing to verify their internal ballistics, ignition performance, and thermal structure. Simultaneously, the main escape engine underwent measurements of force, heat, noise, and exhaust plume characteristics.

According to the project schedule, Mengzhou will carry out two escape flight tests this year: one at zero altitude and one at maximum dynamic pressure.

As key technologies for escape are gradually verified through testing, China’s crewed launch escape systems will be better suited to meet mission demands, offering astronauts enhanced safety and reliability—and supporting China’s continued advance into deeper space.

Pictures Hot-fire test of solid escape and orbital control engines
Patch of the Zero-altitude (pad abort) escape test. This suggests it may happen in Jiuquan

The schedule of the Max Q In flight abort test this year suggests it may happen with a custom,dedicated "Little Joe" type rocket, since the infrastructures needed to launch CZ-10A are not expected to be completed this year

[limen4]

Patch of the Zero-altitude (pad abort) escape test. This suggests it may happen in Jiuquan

Yes, very likely. I remember, similar test for Shenzhou have been carried out from LC3 at JSLC.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

And the pad abort test has been successfully completed at JSLC, at 04:30 UTC today with maximum altitude reached about 20 seconds later, and a flight time of about 2 minutes.

https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/1934859450726404273

https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/1934863007601053946

[TheKutKu]

https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202506/content_7028387.htm

The zero-altitude escape flight test of the Mengzhou manned spacecraft was a complete success. my country's manned lunar exploration project has made a new and important breakthrough in its development

Xinhua News Agency, Jiuquan, June 17 (Li Guoli, Deng Meng) my country successfully organized and implemented the zero-altitude escape flight test of the Mengzhou manned spacecraft at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on the 17th, marking a new and important breakthrough in the development of my country's manned lunar exploration project.

This is the first time that my country has organized and implemented this test again after the zero-altitude escape flight test of the Shenzhou manned spacecraft in 1998.

At 12:30, the ignition command was issued, and the escape engine of the Mengzhou manned spacecraft was successfully ignited. The ship-tower assembly took off under the propulsion of the solid engine. After about 20 seconds, it reached the predetermined height. The return capsule and the escape tower were safely separated, and the parachute was successfully deployed. At 12:32, the return capsule landed safely in the predetermined area of ​​the test landing area using airbag cushioning. The test was a complete success.

According to the China Manned Space Engineering Office, compared with the Shenzhou spacecraft, the previous mode of "rocket responsible for escape and spacecraft responsible for life-saving" has been changed. The Mengzhou manned spacecraft system assumes the overall function of escape and is fully responsible for both escape and life-saving tasks. Through the test, the escape and life-saving subsystem and related large systems of the Mengzhou manned spacecraft were comprehensively evaluated. At the same time, the correctness and matching of the designs such as escape timing, escape separation, and escape trajectory closed-loop control were verified, and the escape flight parameters were obtained.

It is reported that escape and life-saving is an important safety guarantee for manned flight missions. In the event of an emergency failure, the spacecraft return capsule carrying astronauts can be taken away from the dangerous area and ensure the safe return of astronauts to the ground. The Mengzhou manned spacecraft is a new generation of manned earth-to-space round-trip transport aircraft that my country has independently developed for subsequent manned space missions. The spacecraft itself adopts a modular design and can carry up to 7 astronauts. The performance of the entire ship has reached the international advanced level.

The Mengzhou manned spacecraft will become the core manned aircraft supporting the application and development of space stations, manned lunar exploration and other missions in the future. The success of this test has laid an important technical foundation for the subsequent manned lunar exploration mission. In addition, the development of spacecraft such as the Long March 10 carrier rocket and the lunar lander for the manned lunar exploration mission is progressing steadily and steadily, and relevant tests will be organized and implemented as planned in the future.

Pictures Evans伊文斯 (1-6)
Pictures 航空物语 (7-8)
Pictures JSLC (https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_C65XmkeEqLtwrwmaAeTWQ) (9-16)
Pictures CCTV (video.weibo.com/show?fid=1034:5178645057044537)

Footage attached.

It may be worth recalling that the nominal case for abort is a splashdown, since it will launch from Wenchang.

[catdlr]

Here is the YT version for that

[sdsds]

Summarizing here what I see hoping for corrections or clarifications. The abort system is in a tower above the capsule. It is connected to the capsule by a skirt that doesn't completely enclose / enshroud the capsule. There are four primary abort motors near the base of the tower angled out so their exhaust plumes don't contact the capsule with no Orion-style reverse flow configuration. Near the top of the tower there are four reaction control motors (or possibly a single motor with some clever valve control scheme like Orion) for attitude control. There appears to be a separate tower jettison motor. The capsule lands under three chutes, cushioned by airbags. Landing looked hard but survivable. It was unclear whether landing jets further cushion the impact. It seemed not though as there is commentary above about the nominal capsule returns being splash-downs. They plan to conduct a max-q test at altitude later this year.

Is that all correct?

[starbase]

Looks like it was launched from LC-43/95A. Anyone can confirm?

[limen4]

Based on available images I geolocate launch and landing spot in a Google Earth map. Launch occured from LC95BLC95A.  The landing spot is only estimated as good as possible.
Correction made. Thanks to Starbase, Liss and Kutku.

[Liss]

I believe LC-95A was the site of the launch. The western one, being used for regular solid LV launches as well.

[TheKutKu]

It's 95A

[TheKutKu]

Someone who's better at photogrammetry may give their opinion: There generally was an opinion that Mengzhou's *capsule* (not the whole spacecraft, the capsule protected with a heatshield) would be 4.5m wide at its base, similar to the Next Generation Spacecraft that was launched in 2020 (Here's a source on it being 4.5m wide).

However the recent footage from this test as well as the few pictures shared last november gives the impression that it's a bit smaller, maybe 4.2m wide or so. And perhaps it is indeed the whole vehicle, with service module, that is 4.5m wide as announced a year ago.

What's your opinion on this?

[limen4]

Someone who's better at photogrammetry may give their opinion: There generally was an opinion that Mengzhou's *capsule* (not the whole spacecraft, the capsule protected with a heatshield) would be 4.5m wide at its base, similar to the Next Generation Spacecraft that was launched in 2020 (Here's a source on it being 4.5m wide).

However the recent footage from this test as well as the few pictures shared last november gives the impression that it's a bit smaller, maybe 4.2m wide or so. And perhaps it is indeed the whole vehicle, with service module, that is 4.5m wide as announced a year ago.

What's your opinion on this?

Do you mean the red distance?
The problem is to find a reference distance near the object to be measured. I use the height of the people near the capsule (yellow distances) and calculate a mean value. In Google you find the information that the avarage height of adult Chinese people is 1.72m. Based on this relation it is easy to calculate the red distance. Based on this approach I got a value of 4.95m which is remarkable higher then your estimation of 4.2m. I guess the calculation error is about +/- 0.1m

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1935011289308540946

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/WLR_2678/status/1934983835923452170

More pics of the #Mengzhou capsule in the pad abort test from today's news

[JSz]

A close-up view of Mengzhou:

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1935223756466831847

This close-up shot of Mengzhou abort system test looks so cool