Author Topic: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime  (Read 75142 times)

Online Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 40961
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 26921
  • Likes Given: 12713
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #80 on: 12/25/2019 11:30 am »
The rate of improvement over the last millennium has been insane. We paused development in space because we needed to transition from expendable to reusable. And yet we could be sending interstellar robotic probes out to the nearest other star system by the end of this century. The evidence suggest vast progress within the next 1000 years.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline lamontagne

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4679
  • Otterburn Park, Quebec,Canada
  • Liked: 4012
  • Likes Given: 772
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #81 on: 12/25/2019 06:51 pm »
When you add self assembling orbital factories, asteroid mining, space solar, AI and the need for Interplanetary craft to be able to self repair, there is a nice synergy towards Interstellar travel that seems more or less inevitable.  It's more a question of when and if than of how.
The role of SpaceX in this is to make the 'if' part more likely and therefore shortening the when.

The same way a dedicated individual has made Interplanetary travel likely in the next decade, within the context of technological and financial advances, the next few centuries should create the context that makes Interstellar travel within the reach of  similar individual in the future.
In other words,
if Elon Musk + energy of US = Interplanetary  (or Jeff Besos)
Future Elon Musk like individual +energy of even tiny part of solar system= Interstellar


Offline redskyforge

  • Member
  • Posts: 57
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #82 on: 12/27/2019 06:47 pm »
This Medusa paper is great reading: https://fas.org/sgp/othergov/doe/lanl/docs1/00189777.pdf

Some criticism I've read about it is that the crewed part of the spacecraft needs to travel 'through' the wake of the nuclear explosions in the canopy, a bit like driving a car with an exhaust pipe in front. But I wonder how much of an issue it really is -- I've also read that the stowed bombs could actually double as a radiation shield for the crew. You can also imagine different configurations whereby the crewed components are to either side of the fore part of the whole vehicle (a sort of 'A' frame), though I think the crossbar separating two components would need to be pretty rigid.

Offline redskyforge

  • Member
  • Posts: 57
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #83 on: 12/27/2019 07:01 pm »
Great documentary on Project Orion, including interviews with Freeman Dyson:



1950's technology.

Offline Valerij

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 130
  • Russia, SPb
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #84 on: 01/29/2021 06:03 pm »
Gwynn Shotwell spoke again about the prospects for interstellar travel:
 
Quote from: Gwynn Shotwell
Shotwell noted SpaceX’s ambitious hopes for the future. “In 10 years we’ll see people start settling on other planets,” adding that, “people tell us we’re crazy every day, but we need to ignore that and push forward. We are trying to find a breakthrough in propulsion technology that allows us to go beyond the Moon, beyond Mars, beyond the entire Solar System. Certainly, within 50 years we’ll have a path that will allow us to fly to other worlds.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3889710,00.html

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #85 on: 01/29/2021 06:19 pm »
Interstellar travel has been possible - granted, only with an extremely massive effort - since the 60s or 70s, like with Project Orion or Project Daedalus. Both projects had unsolved engineering problems that need further study, but the technical capability has been with us since then. We don't actually need any significantly new technologies to go to the stars, just a very large amount of funding and long-term willpower.

Of course, we happily spend hundreds of billions on the military and trillions of dollars on wars, so the funding could exist, it just needs to be better applied.

We could wait for better propulsion technology, but that is both risky and results would be uncertain, and could take decades.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline endlesslimitation

  • Member
  • Posts: 50
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #86 on: 01/29/2021 06:52 pm »
Conceptually, I'm a fan of the "sailbeam" concept, (basically shooting low mass light sails at a space craft to transfer momentum) and it seems like the breakthrough starshot project is close to feasible and would be an excellent stepping stone towards sailbeam.

Offline Valerij

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 130
  • Russia, SPb
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #87 on: 01/29/2021 09:25 pm »
A comparative overview of some rocket engine technologies and a description of a new spacecraft concept for fast interplanetary flights is available at the link:
https://isulibrary.isunet.edu/doc_num.php?explnum_id=1658
In his fusion engine, the reaction is triggered by positrons, the production and storage of which is fundamentally much easier than antiprotons. And here there is a mathematical model and simulation of the process of mastering the Solar System using such a ship:
http://fast-transit.space
   
I have no evidence that this has anything to do with Gwynne Shotwell or SpaceX, but this information is very useful for understanding the situation.
   
For example, several trajectories of fast interplanetary flights.

Offline su27k

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6414
  • Liked: 9110
  • Likes Given: 885
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #88 on: 01/30/2021 01:02 am »
Gwynn Shotwell spoke again about the prospects for interstellar travel:
 
Quote from: Gwynn Shotwell
Shotwell noted SpaceX’s ambitious hopes for the future. “In 10 years we’ll see people start settling on other planets,” adding that, “people tell us we’re crazy every day, but we need to ignore that and push forward. We are trying to find a breakthrough in propulsion technology that allows us to go beyond the Moon, beyond Mars, beyond the entire Solar System. Certainly, within 50 years we’ll have a path that will allow us to fly to other worlds.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3889710,00.html

Interesting, I wonder who is the "we" in the highlighted sentence, is it humanity as a whole, or is it SpaceX? If it's the latter, that's super gigantic news.

Offline aceshigh

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 792
  • Liked: 269
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #89 on: 01/30/2021 01:53 am »
Even if it's SpaceX which is pursuing that, we don´t know how much of a pursuit it is.

At this stage, probably the only thing they do is visit Nasa SpaceFlight to check latest news on Advanced Concepts... they are probably building a "library" of studies... so after they solve the Earth-to-Orbit CHEAP and RELIABLE problem, then they will start thinking in a REAL way of all these proposals, and start contacting the people who made such proposals, maybe hire the best of them as team leaders to develop that stuff for SpaceX.

Most advanced propulsion can´t take-off from Earth or other deep gravity wells.

Offline Valerij

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 130
  • Russia, SPb
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #90 on: 01/30/2021 02:07 am »
Gwynn Shotwell spoke again about the prospects for interstellar travel:
 
Quote from: Gwynn Shotwell
Shotwell noted SpaceX’s ambitious hopes for the future. “In 10 years we’ll see people start settling on other planets,” adding that, “people tell us we’re crazy every day, but we need to ignore that and push forward. We are trying to find a breakthrough in propulsion technology that allows us to go beyond the Moon, beyond Mars, beyond the entire Solar System. Certainly, within 50 years we’ll have a path that will allow us to fly to other worlds.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3889710,00.html

Interesting, I wonder who is the "we" in the highlighted sentence, is it humanity as a whole, or is it SpaceX? If it's the latter, that's super gigantic news.
A closer look at NASA's website reveals information on several research groups exploring various fusion rocket concepts. However, these engines, in principle, can only operate in a space vacuum. Since getting a person or a payload into orbit is very expensive, this research is moving very slowly. But with the start of the Starship's flights, the cost of delivering a person and cargo will drop by orders of magnitude. It seems to me that Gwynne Shotwell is closely following these studies, and, on the one hand, is well-versed in their course, and on the other hand, she prepares people who will then build fusion engines for starships based on these concepts. It is likely that either Gwynne Shotwell herself or SpaceX are sponsoring these studies. It is likely that while these research groups are not part of SpaceX, but later their technologies will be used.
   

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #91 on: 01/30/2021 03:33 am »
A comparative overview of some rocket engine technologies and a description of a new spacecraft concept for fast interplanetary flights is available at the link:
https://isulibrary.isunet.edu/doc_num.php?explnum_id=1658
In his fusion engine, the reaction is triggered by positrons, the production and storage of which is fundamentally much easier than antiprotons. And here there is a mathematical model and simulation of the process of mastering the Solar System using such a ship:
http://fast-transit.space
   
I have no evidence that this has anything to do with Gwynne Shotwell or SpaceX, but this information is very useful for understanding the situation.
   
For example, several trajectories of fast interplanetary flights.

0.2g would be a wonderful velocity. It would easily open up travel to Mars and the asteroid belt.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13506
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11906
  • Likes Given: 11217
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #92 on: 01/30/2021 03:51 am »
Once cheap transit to LEO is available, the whole thing bootstraps up to an industrial economy capable of large projects. There are many cycles of expansion before asteroid mining, Mars, etc are ready though. At that point generation ships or sleeper ships of some kind become feasible. I think it better to plan for that then to plan on a breakthrough.

I'm a massive booster and amazing people, everyone knows that. but to get to there in her lifetime is optimistic. But if so, what a ride!
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Valerij

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 130
  • Russia, SPb
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #93 on: 01/30/2021 07:25 am »
Once cheap transit to LEO is available, the whole thing bootstraps up to an industrial economy capable of large projects. There are many cycles of expansion before asteroid mining, Mars, etc are ready though. At that point generation ships or sleeper ships of some kind become feasible. I think it better to plan for that then to plan on a breakthrough.

I'm a massive booster and amazing people, everyone knows that. but to get to there in her lifetime is optimistic. But if so, what a ride!
I do not think that the title of the topic should be taken so literally. I ask you to see a visualization of the development of the Solar System. The possibility of fast interplanetary travel is fundamentally changing all future prospects.
http://fast-transit.space/simulation/
« Last Edit: 01/30/2021 07:27 am by Valerij »

Offline DigitalMan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1791
  • Liked: 1258
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #94 on: 01/31/2021 02:22 am »
A comparative overview of some rocket engine technologies and a description of a new spacecraft concept for fast interplanetary flights is available at the link:
https://isulibrary.isunet.edu/doc_num.php?explnum_id=1658
In his fusion engine, the reaction is triggered by positrons, the production and storage of which is fundamentally much easier than antiprotons. And here there is a mathematical model and simulation of the process of mastering the Solar System using such a ship:
http://fast-transit.space
   
I have no evidence that this has anything to do with Gwynne Shotwell or SpaceX, but this information is very useful for understanding the situation.
   
For example, several trajectories of fast interplanetary flights.

0.2g would be a wonderful velocity. It would easily open up travel to Mars and the asteroid belt.

I think continuous acceleration would solve the issue of human zero-g health degradation and eliminate the need for rotating spacecraft.

Offline Valerij

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 130
  • Russia, SPb
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #95 on: 01/31/2021 08:22 am »

I think continuous acceleration would solve the issue of human zero-g health degradation and eliminate the need for rotating spacecraft.
   
Fast interplanetary flights within the Solar System completely remove this problem, because the duration of such a flight is usually short, only a few days. Another thing is that the destination where people will stay for a long time may be a space station, and it is desirable to provide an imitation of gravity at such a station.
 
I think that the discussion of the influence of gravity (or its imitation) is not for this topic.
« Last Edit: 01/31/2021 08:23 am by Valerij »

Offline Valerij

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 130
  • Russia, SPb
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #96 on: 01/31/2021 09:07 am »
Gwynn Shotwell spoke again about the prospects for interstellar travel:
 
Quote from: Gwynn Shotwell
Shotwell noted SpaceX’s ambitious hopes for the future. “In 10 years we’ll see people start settling on other planets,” adding that, “people tell us we’re crazy every day, but we need to ignore that and push forward. We are trying to find a breakthrough in propulsion technology that allows us to go beyond the Moon, beyond Mars, beyond the entire Solar System. Certainly, within 50 years we’ll have a path that will allow us to fly to other worlds.
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3889710,00.html

Interesting, I wonder who is the "we" in the highlighted sentence, is it humanity as a whole, or is it SpaceX? If it's the latter, that's super gigantic news.
   
SpaceX's influence is not limited to direct participation in development or financing projects. SpaceX has become a recognized "forge of personnel" ("talent pool") and "leadership school". Many people who are shaping the modern space industry, have experience in SpaceX.
   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=449&v=Yz7MkoKmpPI
Joy Dunn of SpaceX and Commonwealth Fusion Systems Talks Building Fusion Reactors and Rockets
   
Quote from: The Engine, Built by [email protected]
Joy Dunn, the head of manufacturing for Commonwealth Fusion Systems, shares the stories behind her rise from managing a team that built components the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft to her current position, helping to build an innovative new fusion power plant.

See more at https://www.toughtechsummit.com
Visit Commonwealth Fusion Systems at https://cfs.energy/
   
Here I found a discussion of this topic on reddit.com:https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/egoev6/is_this_the_technology_necessary_for_interstellar/
   

Offline DigitalMan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1791
  • Liked: 1258
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #97 on: 01/31/2021 03:42 pm »

I think continuous acceleration would solve the issue of human zero-g health degradation and eliminate the need for rotating spacecraft.
   
Fast interplanetary flights within the Solar System completely remove this problem, because the duration of such a flight is usually short, only a few days. Another thing is that the destination where people will stay for a long time may be a space station, and it is desirable to provide an imitation of gravity at such a station.
 
I think that the discussion of the influence of gravity (or its imitation) is not for this topic.

I was simply pointing out a benefit of continuous acceleration in regards to a requirement.

You comment stating that my observation was off topic and unnecessary due to short travel times within the solar system is in fact the thing that is off topic and irrelevant.

Travel within the solar system isn't relevant to this thread.

My view on this is that this is an ideal example of an area SpaceX would seek to collaborate with NASA in regards to developing this type of capability.

Offline Oberonian

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 162
  • Europe
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #98 on: 04/08/2021 07:58 am »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1187745445361180672

Quote
Shotwell: "I think we will have a propulsion breakthrough in my lifetime that we can then say we will build a ship and start the journey" to the next potentially habitable solar system.

What kind of technologies could Ms Shotwell be referring to? People who have done the hard math on the rocket equation, energy densities, and efficiencies have shown that a fission based nuclear engine can achieve up to 0.05c, fusion engines can achieve up to 0.1c, and antimatter engines could hit up to 0.9c. Unprecedented developments in reliability engineering are required for any of these propulsion schemes, and fission based rocketry doesn't strike me as providing interstellar voyages on a useful time scale. What could Gwynne have in mind?

How do we know Shotwell has said anything on those lines..as it is not her account ?

Offline rakaydos

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2843
  • Liked: 1875
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Interstellar Travel in Gwynne Shotwell's Lifetime
« Reply #99 on: 04/08/2021 08:50 am »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1187745445361180672

Quote
Shotwell: "I think we will have a propulsion breakthrough in my lifetime that we can then say we will build a ship and start the journey" to the next potentially habitable solar system.

What kind of technologies could Ms Shotwell be referring to? People who have done the hard math on the rocket equation, energy densities, and efficiencies have shown that a fission based nuclear engine can achieve up to 0.05c, fusion engines can achieve up to 0.1c, and antimatter engines could hit up to 0.9c. Unprecedented developments in reliability engineering are required for any of these propulsion schemes, and fission based rocketry doesn't strike me as providing interstellar voyages on a useful time scale. What could Gwynne have in mind?

How do we know Shotwell has said anything on those lines..as it is not her account ?

Because if she didnt, she could sue Michael Sheetz for false reporting.

 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0