Author Topic: Vega Discussion (includes Vega-C, Vega-E) Thread  (Read 120405 times)

Offline friendly3

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #200 on: 09/01/2023 02:46 am »
The return to flight of Vega-C won't happen before the end of 2024, coming from a reliable French source in Kourou.


That late? One year from now?

Yes, at best.
I don't know more but my uneducated guess is that they found a design flaw in the Zefiro 40 second stage.
« Last Edit: 09/01/2023 02:49 am by friendly3 »

Offline ZachS09

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #201 on: 09/01/2023 04:48 am »
The return to flight of Vega-C won't happen before the end of 2024, coming from a reliable French source in Kourou.


That late? One year from now?

Yes, at best.
I don't know more but my uneducated guess is that they found a design flaw in the Zefiro 40 second stage.

Darn it. This may mean that most of the payloads on Vega-C's manifest are moving to other launch vehicles (i.e. Falcon 9).
SECO confirmed. Nominal orbit insertion.

Offline Mamut

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #202 on: 09/02/2023 10:28 pm »
This actually makes Vega C irrelevant. What is the purpose of working for the next year on returning it to service in 2025 if Vega E flies in 2026.

Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #203 on: 09/02/2023 10:37 pm »
This actually makes Vega C irrelevant. What is the purpose of working for the next year on returning it to service in 2025 if Vega E flies in 2026.

Well unfortunately, from what I can tell, Vega E would still use the same second stage that has failed both in launch and testing on Vega C. Only the 3rd and 4th stages get replaced with a methalox stage. And if the only delays to Vega C are from second stage work, it still makes sense to get it up and going, even in 2025. And who's to say the M10 stage will actually be ready on time anyways . . .

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #204 on: 09/02/2023 11:01 pm »
The M10 engine and VUS stage for Vega E have a development timeline with a maiden launch NET 2026.
New engine; new stage; thus delays are likely.
Vega E is a further development of Vega C; it keeps the P120C(+) and Z40 stages.
The problem lies with the Z40stage.

A proposal could be:
To halt Vega C and E development. Thus halt M10 development (after the second engine).
Shelve the demo rocket. Halt a lot of side developments for the Vega Launchers.
And end casting orbital solid stages in Italy.
Focus on; and fast track the HTE/M60 engine development (start in 2024 in stead of 2026), as a second stage engine. With the HTE/M60 a two stage to orbit can be developed. Let's call it Vega F:
With P120C(+) and a HTE/M60 powered second stage. Let Avio aim to get this operational before 2030.
I think 200mln funded via the EU recovery fund should suffice.
The next step would be replacement of P120C(+) with stage with multiple sea level HTE/M60 engines. That stage might become reusable. But is Avio capable of developing this, looking at their track record?

This results in no Vega launches between 2024 and 2030 when the Vega F gets operational.
European small launchers (ISAR Aerospace Spectrum, or RFA One) can launch some payloads. Others can be launched by Ariane 6 rideshare or other launch service providers.

Offline hoku

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #205 on: 09/03/2023 10:22 am »
<snip>
This results in no Vega launches between 2024 and 2030 when the Vega F gets operational.
European small launchers (ISAR Aerospace Spectrum, or RFA One) can launch some payloads. Others can be launched by Ariane 6 rideshare or other launch service providers.
Ariane 6 economics are (for better or worse) linked to Vega C's (P120C) flight rate. It is in ArianeSpace's best interest to implement the recommendations of the inquiry board into the VV22 failure regarding improvements in configuration and quality control for Vega C's manufacturing and testing processes. The hot fire test, which revealed the new issue with Zefiro 40, was along the board's recommendations.

Still, I agree that Europe/EU/ESA should become much more supportive towards other potential European launch providers (PLD Space/DAWN/Skyrora/ISAR Aerospace/RFA etc.). ArianeSpace's monopoly, which led to a complete loss of guaranteed access to orbit for Europe, needs to be challenged.

Offline GWR64

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #206 on: 09/03/2023 01:15 pm »
The M10 engine and VUS stage for Vega E have a development timeline with a maiden launch NET 2026.
New engine; new stage; thus delays are likely.
Vega E is a further development of Vega C; it keeps the P120C(+) and Z40 stages.
The problem lies with the Z40stage.

A proposal could be:
To halt Vega C and E development. Thus halt M10 development (after the second engine).
Shelve the demo rocket. Halt a lot of side developments for the Vega Launchers.
And end casting orbital solid stages in Italy.
Focus on; and fast track the HTE/M60 engine development (start in 2024 in stead of 2026), as a second stage engine. With the HTE/M60 a two stage to orbit can be developed. Let's call it Vega F:
With P120C(+) and a HTE/M60 powered second stage. Let Avio aim to get this operational before 2030.
I think 200mln funded via the EU recovery fund should suffice.
The next step would be replacement of P120C(+) with stage with multiple sea level HTE/M60 engines. That stage might become reusable. But is Avio capable of developing this, looking at their track record?

This results in no Vega launches between 2024 and 2030 when the Vega F gets operational.
European small launchers (ISAR Aerospace Spectrum, or RFA One) can launch some payloads. Others can be launched by Ariane 6 rideshare or other launch service providers.

I think about the delays at the Vega-C initial launch and don't give anything for these launch dates.
And, not the Vega-C is the problem, but Avio.
« Last Edit: 09/03/2023 07:20 pm by GWR64 »

Offline GWR64

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #207 on: 09/08/2023 10:48 pm »
Avio 2023 Half-Year Financial Report

Quote
...
Preliminary results of the Zefiro 40 engine test

On June 28, a static ignition test of the Zefiro 40 engine (second stage of the Vega C launcher) was performed on schedule. This was required for the return to flight of Vega C after the flight anomaly suffered during the last VV22 launch in December 2022.
Following the recommendations of the Independent Enquiry Commission on the VV22 mission anomaly, the test was carried out to qualify the performance of the engine with a new carbon-carbon material used for the nozzle throat insert. The test conditions were deliberately extremely severe in terms of maximum engine operating pressure, to demonstrate an extensive performance margin and ensure maximum flight reliability.
Preliminary analysis of the test results - which are still being studied before final conclusions are reached, expected in late September - yielded the following results:
The new carbon-carbon material exhibited nominal performance, which was very close to expectations. However, another anomaly was detected 40 seconds after the start of the test. This led to a reduction in the engine’s overall pressure performance before the scheduled completion of the test at 97 seconds. This requires further investigation and testing by Avio and the European Space Agency to ensure optimal performance conditions.
However, it remains reasonable to assume that the Zefiro 40 engine will need to be ground-tested again before returning to flight with the Vega C launcher. For H1 2023, the provision for risks for estimated costs to be borne by Avio to carry out an additional Zefiro 40 engine static ignition test was therefore included in non-recurring costs, as was the ESA support attributable to Avio as part of the wider principle of support for the return to flight of the Vega C launcher. This was confirmed by the ESA in March 2023.
The Vega launcher is not affected by the performance of Zefiro 40, which is specific to Vega C. The next Vega launch remains scheduled for early October. Planning for Vega C’s return to flight is currently being assessed, pending further analysis and investigation as indicated above.
...
« Last Edit: 09/08/2023 10:50 pm by GWR64 »

Offline GWR64

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #208 on: 10/07/2023 08:52 am »
A bit off topic:
Avio spa's share price has been falling for a long time, but in the last 3 weeks it has collapsed quite a bit.
Closing price yesterday €7.60. Total value of Avio Spa. is less than 200 M€.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVIO.MI/

https://investors.avio.com/en/Investors/Ownership-Structure/

There are also rumors that the largest shareholder Leonardo wants to reduce his share.
Avio spa would be an target for a takeover by a potential investor from anywhere.
But the small company is too important for the European space industry and also for military.
The control should therefore not fall into the wrong hands.
« Last Edit: 10/07/2023 12:05 pm by GWR64 »

Offline EuropeanSpaceNut

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ESA - Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #209 on: 12/03/2024 08:10 am »
I don't see a thread for Vega E so I thought I would create one. According to European Spaceflight, ESA expects to sign a new contract for Vega E before the end of the year.

https://europeanspaceflight.com/esa-to-award-avio-new-vega-e-contract-before-the-end-of-2024/
« Last Edit: 12/03/2024 05:55 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #210 on: 12/03/2024 01:13 pm »
There are two topics for the evolution of Vega.
topic 1071: ESA - Vega Updates (Vega, Vega-C, Vega-E, etc. 2005 and forward) and this topic.
Besides we have the topic that Avio will become the launch service provider for Vega-C and Vega-E from 2026.
And the Vega Methalox, IFD and Vega Next gen. with MR60 engines. 
Already from 2005 the plan was to develop Vega-E. But incrementally and slowly. The setbacks on Vega and Vega-C have caused delays in the development of Vega-E.
Avio got the 118.8mln M(R)-10 engine development and certification contract in Oktober 2021, when the SPTF was inaugurated. This involved an engine test campaign each year to develop and certify the MR10 engine for the VUS Vega-E third stage. They still have two engine campaigns to go after this year. I expect the an press release with the results of this years campaign are imminent.

Vega-E will very likely launch from a modified ELA3 (Ariane 5) launch pad. All the modifications and equipment for this still needs to be manufactured. I also thought that Avio plans to use composite tank structures for the VUS stage, and I'm not aware of a technology demonstrator from Avio for this. 
So Vega-E is still in the pipeline, but progress is very slow.

To my knowledge MR60 engine development testing will start after the MR10 has been certified. I expect this will also take several years to develop and certify the MR60 engine. So I expect a launch with MR60 engine NET 2030. 

An incremental step has been introduced in the Vega evolution planning; the Vega-C+ or block2. Where the P120C will be replaced by the P160C. The qualification test of P160C (from BEAP) most likely has slipped to 2025. Vega E will use the P160C as first stage, Zefiro40 as second stage and VUS with MR10 engine as third stage. And optionally an in orbit stage can be added.

There is a rumor going around that Avio will get another contract for Vega-E development. Possibly this is for the VUS stage qualification and or the modifications of ELA3 to make it usable for Vega-E (and most likely Next Gen EU in the future). I wouldn't be surprised if Avio plans to do the VUS integrated stage testing at ELA3, and certifying the modifications at the same time. Don't expect anything significant before 2026.
« Last Edit: 12/03/2024 05:53 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #211 on: 12/03/2024 05:59 pm »
Welcome aboard, EuropeanSpaceNut!
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline Asteroza

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #212 on: 12/03/2024 09:42 pm »
There's noises again Italy wants to reactivate their Luigi Broglio Space Center near Malindi, Kenya, possibly for Vega?

https://europeanspaceflight.com/italy-to-reopen-kenya-based-offshore-launch-facility/

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Vega Evolution Discussion Thread
« Reply #213 on: 12/04/2024 10:18 am »
There's noises again Italy wants to reactivate their Luigi Broglio Space Center near Malindi, Kenya, possibly for Vega?

https://europeanspaceflight.com/italy-to-reopen-kenya-based-offshore-launch-facility/
This news was from mid October. https://spaceinafrica.com/2024/10/14/kenya-italy-space-centre-to-be-reused-for-satellite-launches/
And Vega, Vega-C and Vega-E are bound to CSG because the P88, P120C and P160C can only be produced and handled there.
I think the IFD and EU next Gen could launch from an offshore platform. Or the Vega light.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline StraumliBlight

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Re: Vega Discussion (includes Vega-C, Vega-E) Thread
« Reply #215 on: 03/13/2025 05:47 pm »

Offline GWR64

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Re: Vega Discussion (includes Vega-C, Vega-E) Thread
« Reply #216 on: 03/15/2025 10:26 am »
The last image shows that the 4th Vega-C launch in 2025 VV29 is uncertain and may not take place this year.
Josef Aschbacher had already announced in the 2025 Annual Press Briefing that SMILE would likely be ready for launch by the end of the year, but that the launch on Vega-C might not take place until next year.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2025 10:27 am by GWR64 »

Offline Mamut

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« Last Edit: 03/17/2025 01:32 pm by Mamut »

Offline AndrewM

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Re: Vega Discussion (includes Vega-C, Vega-E) Thread
« Reply #218 on: 06/14/2025 11:51 pm »
P160C qualification motor was fired on April 24th and there are 2 more Vega C launches planned for 2025.

Quote
The P160C qualification motor was successfully tested on 24 April at the European Spaceport in French Guiana, on the solid-propellant booster test stand (BEAP) operated by the French Space Agency (CNES). The successful test firing of the first P160C motor is a major milestone in the development of the future upgrades of Europe’s Ariane 6 and Vega launchers.
https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Europe_s_Spaceport/P160C_fires_up_successfully_a_new_chapter_for_Ariane_6_and_Vega_launchers [Apr 25]

Quote
Arianespace has conducted two launches this year, one each of the Ariane 6 and Vega C. He said there are four more Ariane 6 and two more Vega C launches planned for this year, with the next being another Vega C launch in July.
https://spacenews.com/vega-launches-biomass-satellite/ [Apr 30]

Offline AndrewM

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Re: Vega Discussion (includes Vega-C, Vega-E) Thread
« Reply #219 on: 09/20/2025 10:49 pm »
France Grants Avio 10-Year Licence to Launch from Guiana Space Centre [Aug. 21]

Quote
Looking ahead, the company will shift operations to ELA-3 for its upgraded Vega E rocket. The complex previously hosted Ariane 5 launches before that vehicle’s retirement in July 2023. The inaugural flight of Vega E is currently expected to take place between late 2027 and early 2028.

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