So I was wondering if the falcon heavy will still be human rated as of 2018?We all know that Elon wanted to send tourist around the moon on the FH but I haven't heard much on it in awhile.Will they just focus on human rating the falcon 9 and skip the FH going straight to the BFR for human transport?
SpaceX will get that experience with Commercial Crew. it's not like they will bail on that contract. Don't need FH for that. They could launch an unmanned D2 on FH to make sure everything fits.
Just hearing FUD from certain quarters (mostly DC) that doesn't make much sense, but infers things about CC.So if one is concerned about FH HR, this might be ahead of that risk.
The Falcon Heavy has insufficient payload to get a Dragon 2 to low lunar orbit (LLO) and back. However a 1.5 architecture may work.
Quote from: Space Ghost 1962 on 02/27/2018 04:29 amJust hearing FUD from certain quarters (mostly DC) that doesn't make much sense, but infers things about CC.So if one is concerned about FH HR, this might be ahead of that risk.I'm hearing similar crap. It all boils down to the usual suspects being upset about government-led (S)HLV development having taken a punch in the face recently from some whacky company in Hawthorne. Their concern is that Elon et al. could do something similar to government-led HSF spacecraft development, courtesy of Crew Dragon.Boeing is not seen as such a threat for all the obvious reasons.
Quote from: woods170 on 02/27/2018 07:19 amQuote from: Space Ghost 1962 on 02/27/2018 04:29 amJust hearing FUD from certain quarters (mostly DC) that doesn't make much sense, but infers things about CC.So if one is concerned about FH HR, this might be ahead of that risk.I'm hearing similar crap. It all boils down to the usual suspects being upset about government-led (S)HLV development having taken a punch in the face recently from some whacky company in Hawthorne. Their concern is that Elon et al. could do something similar to government-led HSF spacecraft development, courtesy of Crew Dragon.Boeing is not seen as such a threat for all the obvious reasons.I wonder what keeps Jeff Bezos from announcing the big, orbital crewed spacecraft BO is undoubtedly developing now and has a real chance of flying crewed before Orion does.Remember that as New Shepard = suborbital tourism, New Glenn = orbital tourism...That spacecraft is almost certainly meant to be reusable, and this may or may not mean that it'll be equipped with TPS capable of sustaining BLEO reentry if needed. Same as Orion, same as Dragon 2, same as BFS.
If I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.
Quote from: su27k on 02/27/2018 03:10 pmIf I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.I don't see that as tinfoil at all. Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs. It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly. Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents. Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.
If it seems smooth sailing, BFS may at that point be only 4 years away, which has the rather simpler mission architecture of 'refuel in LEO, land on moon with 20 ton payload, deliver payload back to earth.For 'no' SpaceX investment, other than a vacuum rated ladder.
Quote from: philw1776 on 02/27/2018 04:47 pmQuote from: su27k on 02/27/2018 03:10 pmIf I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.I don't see that as tinfoil at all. Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs. It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly. Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents. Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.I remember the original announcement as being very "in your face" so I really don't see this as a likely reason for Musk's change of direction on FH.
That's why I think he wants to de-escalate, things got escalated due to the original announcement. I suspect the flyby ...
Commercial Crew is at risk for non technical reasons? Or just SpaceX and it will be Boeing only? Or something else?
Quote from: Negan on 02/27/2018 05:07 pmQuote from: philw1776 on 02/27/2018 04:47 pmQuote from: su27k on 02/27/2018 03:10 pmIf I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.I don't see that as tinfoil at all. Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs. It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly. Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents. Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.I remember the original announcement as being very "in your face" so I really don't see this as a likely reason for Musk's change of direction on FH. That's why I think he wants to de-escalate, things got escalated due to the original announcement. I suspect the flyby mission was part of a private deal with the administration, by giving the administration bragging rights they hope to get support for ITS. It got complicated when some idiot stole the idea and proposed manned EM-1, which probably frakked Musk off, thus the announcement. Fast forward to today, the deal didn't come through, so there's no need for the flyby mission anymore, since it would just give a freebie to the administration while pissing off a whole bunch of people unnecessarily.
Quote from: su27k on 02/28/2018 01:32 amQuote from: Negan on 02/27/2018 05:07 pmQuote from: philw1776 on 02/27/2018 04:47 pmQuote from: su27k on 02/27/2018 03:10 pmIf I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.I don't see that as tinfoil at all. Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs. It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly. Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents. Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.I remember the original announcement as being very "in your face" so I really don't see this as a likely reason for Musk's change of direction on FH. That's why I think he wants to de-escalate, things got escalated due to the original announcement. I suspect the flyby mission was part of a private deal with the administration, by giving the administration bragging rights they hope to get support for ITS. It got complicated when some idiot stole the idea and proposed manned EM-1, which probably frakked Musk off, thus the announcement. Fast forward to today, the deal didn't come through, so there's no need for the flyby mission anymore, since it would just give a freebie to the administration while pissing off a whole bunch of people unnecessarily.The original announcement wasn't "in your face" at all. It was matter of fact. Don't judge reality by clickbait headlines.
There are things said publicly by NASA, and there are things said privately. I am fortunate to have some pretty good contacts high in NASA's administration who speak to me privately. They are not amused or enthused by this.I will agree with you that a lot of younger engineers at NASA are very rah-rah when it comes to SpaceX. They see what the company is doing, and they love it. But, for the most part, they don't make the decisions.