Author Topic: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)  (Read 23875 times)

Offline joek

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4867
  • Liked: 2782
  • Likes Given: 1096
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #20 on: 02/27/2018 04:33 am »
So I was wondering if the falcon heavy will still be human rated as of 2018?We all know that Elon wanted to send tourist around the moon on the FH but I haven't heard much on it in awhile.Will they just focus on human rating the falcon 9 and skip the FH going straight to the BFR for human transport?

Hard to answer that question unless you specify who is flying on it or who it is flying for.  If NASA/USG missions/personnel, would need to meet NASA HR standards (same as F9 CC).  If not flying NASA/USG missions/personnel, it would need a nod from the FAA.  While the FAA would likely look to NASA for guidance, it is not a given that they would impose the same requirements as NASA--which is a matter of significant debate in the industry.  (The FAA does not certify commercial spacecraft and launch vehicles for carrying people as it does for commercial aircraft

Offline Norm38

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1696
  • Liked: 1272
  • Likes Given: 2317
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #21 on: 02/27/2018 06:47 am »

SpaceX will get that  experience with Commercial Crew. it's not like they will bail on that contract. Don't need FH for that. They could launch an unmanned D2 on FH to make sure everything fits.

Make sure what fits?  It's the same pad, same strongback. The boosters are well below D2. What's different?

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12093
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18193
  • Likes Given: 12149
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #22 on: 02/27/2018 07:19 am »
Just hearing FUD from certain quarters (mostly DC) that doesn't make much sense, but infers things about CC.

So if one is concerned about FH HR, this might be ahead of that risk.



I'm hearing similar crap. It all boils down to the usual suspects being upset about government-led (S)HLV development having taken a punch in the face recently from some whacky company in Hawthorne. Their concern is that Elon et al. could do something similar to government-led HSF spacecraft development, courtesy of Crew Dragon.
Boeing is not seen as such a threat for all the obvious reasons.

And it is not just the usual suspects in the USA. A lot of industry and government folks over here, at this side of the big pond, have been highly skeptical ever since FH was announced in 2011. The successful maiden trip of FH has come as a rude awakening to some of them.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2018 11:16 am by woods170 »

Offline docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6334
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 4207
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #23 on: 02/27/2018 08:53 am »
Worse than the stiff jab to the nose  represented by Falcon Heavy, and the worldwide reaction, is the possibility StarLink becomes a potential $billions  funding source for BFR/BFS.  I think that flew under their radar until BAM, a roundhouse right from the PAZ launch made it real.
DM

Offline A_M_Swallow

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8906
  • South coast of England
  • Liked: 500
  • Likes Given: 223
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #24 on: 02/27/2018 10:48 am »
The Falcon Heavy has insufficient payload to get a Dragon 2 to low lunar orbit (LLO) and back. However a 1.5 architecture may work.
Dragon 2 with people on Falcon 9 to LEO. (Optional docking to spacestation.)
Falcon Heavy to bring the Earth departure propellant and if possible some cargo.
Transfer cargo to inside the Dragon and attach unpressurized/self_pressurized cargo to the docking port.
Refuel the Falcon 9's upper stage, making it an Earth departure stage.
Fly to lunar orbiting spacestation.
Transfer cargo to spacestation and lander.
Moon trip using lander returning to LLO spacestation.
Fly back to Earth using Dragon 2 and reenter.
Some where along the line discard Earth departure stage.

Offline speedevil

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4406
  • Fife
  • Liked: 2762
  • Likes Given: 3369
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #25 on: 02/27/2018 11:09 am »
The Falcon Heavy has insufficient payload to get a Dragon 2 to low lunar orbit (LLO) and back. However a 1.5 architecture may work.

Assuming this was desired, it would need to wait till after commercial crew flies humans - this is what they're concentrating on.
This happens in December.
In December, they'll have a better handle on if early BFS design and production efforts are hitting huge roadblocks, or if it seems smooth sailing.
If it seems smooth sailing, BFS may at that point be only 4 years away, which has the rather simpler mission architecture of 'refuel in LEO,  land on moon with 20 ton payload, deliver payload back to earth.

For 'no' SpaceX investment, other than a vacuum rated ladder.

Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #26 on: 02/27/2018 11:22 am »
Just hearing FUD from certain quarters (mostly DC) that doesn't make much sense, but infers things about CC.

So if one is concerned about FH HR, this might be ahead of that risk.



I'm hearing similar crap. It all boils down to the usual suspects being upset about government-led (S)HLV development having taken a punch in the face recently from some whacky company in Hawthorne. Their concern is that Elon et al. could do something similar to government-led HSF spacecraft development, courtesy of Crew Dragon.
Boeing is not seen as such a threat for all the obvious reasons.

I wonder what keeps Jeff Bezos from announcing the big, orbital crewed spacecraft BO is undoubtedly developing now and has a real chance of flying crewed before Orion does.
Remember that as New Shepard = suborbital tourism, New Glenn = orbital tourism...
That spacecraft is almost certainly meant to be reusable, and this may or may not mean that it'll be equipped with TPS capable of sustaining BLEO reentry if needed. Same as Orion, same as Dragon 2, same as BFS.
Failure is not only an option, it's the only way to learn.
"Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the custody of fire" - Gustav Mahler

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12093
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18193
  • Likes Given: 12149
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #27 on: 02/27/2018 12:19 pm »
Just hearing FUD from certain quarters (mostly DC) that doesn't make much sense, but infers things about CC.

So if one is concerned about FH HR, this might be ahead of that risk.



I'm hearing similar crap. It all boils down to the usual suspects being upset about government-led (S)HLV development having taken a punch in the face recently from some whacky company in Hawthorne. Their concern is that Elon et al. could do something similar to government-led HSF spacecraft development, courtesy of Crew Dragon.
Boeing is not seen as such a threat for all the obvious reasons.

I wonder what keeps Jeff Bezos from announcing the big, orbital crewed spacecraft BO is undoubtedly developing now and has a real chance of flying crewed before Orion does.
Remember that as New Shepard = suborbital tourism, New Glenn = orbital tourism...
That spacecraft is almost certainly meant to be reusable, and this may or may not mean that it'll be equipped with TPS capable of sustaining BLEO reentry if needed. Same as Orion, same as Dragon 2, same as BFS.

Once Bezos announces that spacecraft people will start asking nasty questions, such as: "when will it fly?"

Remember: Gradatim Ferociter.

Bezos will not unveil the craft until he thinks it is time to unveil it.

Offline su27k

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6414
  • Liked: 9100
  • Likes Given: 885
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #28 on: 02/27/2018 03:10 pm »
If I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.

Offline Kansan52

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1488
  • Hutchinson, KS
  • Liked: 570
  • Likes Given: 539
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #29 on: 02/27/2018 03:31 pm »
I imagine the conversation as the engineering team leader telling the head honcho that if the honcho if the moon trip can be cancelled or delayed then BFR will be ready earlier.

Offline philw1776

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1836
  • Seacoast NH
  • Liked: 1842
  • Likes Given: 983
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #30 on: 02/27/2018 04:47 pm »
If I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.

I don't see that as tinfoil at all.  Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs.
It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly.  Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents.  Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline Negan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 739
  • Southwest
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 533
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #31 on: 02/27/2018 05:07 pm »
If I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.

I don't see that as tinfoil at all.  Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs.
It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly.  Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents.  Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.

I remember the original announcement as being very "in your face" so I really don't see this as a likely reason for Musk's change of direction on FH.

Edit: Removed Sarcasim
« Last Edit: 02/27/2018 05:18 pm by Negan »

Online oiorionsbelt

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1765
  • Liked: 1188
  • Likes Given: 2685
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #32 on: 02/27/2018 08:10 pm »


If it seems smooth sailing, BFS may at that point be only 4 years away, which has the rather simpler mission architecture of 'refuel in LEO,  land on moon with 20 ton payload, deliver payload back to earth.

For 'no' SpaceX investment, other than a vacuum rated ladder.

Bold mine.  Refuel in high ecliptic orbit.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2018 08:11 pm by oiorionsbelt »

Offline su27k

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6414
  • Liked: 9100
  • Likes Given: 885
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #33 on: 02/28/2018 01:32 am »
If I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.

I don't see that as tinfoil at all.  Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs.
It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly.  Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents.  Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.

I remember the original announcement as being very "in your face" so I really don't see this as a likely reason for Musk's change of direction on FH.

That's why I think he wants to de-escalate, things got escalated due to the original announcement. I suspect the flyby mission was part of a private deal with the administration, by giving the administration bragging rights they hope to get support for ITS. It got complicated when some idiot stole the idea and proposed manned EM-1, which probably frakked Musk off, thus the announcement. Fast forward to today, the deal didn't come through, so there's no need for the flyby mission anymore, since it would just give a freebie to the administration while pissing off a whole bunch of people unnecessarily.

Offline Roy_H

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1209
    • Political Solutions
  • Liked: 450
  • Likes Given: 3163
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #34 on: 02/28/2018 01:42 am »
That's why I think he wants to de-escalate, things got escalated due to the original announcement. I suspect the flyby ...
-1
I wish there was a dis-like option.
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk
Spacestation proposal: https://politicalsolutions.ca/forum/index.php?topic=3.0

Offline Negan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 739
  • Southwest
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 533
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #35 on: 02/28/2018 02:49 pm »
Commercial Crew is at risk for non technical reasons? Or just SpaceX and it will be Boeing only? Or something else?

The only actual risk I can see is the propellant loading procedure for SpaceX. NASA hasn't yet approved it, and I haven't seen anything as far as a plan B if they don't.

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39270
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25239
  • Likes Given: 12115
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #36 on: 03/07/2018 11:41 pm »
If I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.

I don't see that as tinfoil at all.  Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs.
It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly.  Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents.  Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.

I remember the original announcement as being very "in your face" so I really don't see this as a likely reason for Musk's change of direction on FH.

That's why I think he wants to de-escalate, things got escalated due to the original announcement. I suspect the flyby mission was part of a private deal with the administration, by giving the administration bragging rights they hope to get support for ITS. It got complicated when some idiot stole the idea and proposed manned EM-1, which probably frakked Musk off, thus the announcement. Fast forward to today, the deal didn't come through, so there's no need for the flyby mission anymore, since it would just give a freebie to the administration while pissing off a whole bunch of people unnecessarily.

The original announcement wasn't "in your face" at all. It was matter of fact. Don't judge reality by clickbait headlines.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Negan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 739
  • Southwest
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 533
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #37 on: 03/09/2018 02:24 am »
If I put my tinfoil hat on, I wonder if the cancellation of FH man rating and Dragon Lunar flyby is Musk's way of de-escalating the conflict, a way to signal truce since he doesn't want a full on confrontation with SLS until BFR is ready. But FH demo may be too successful, the Red Tesla and Starman seems to strike a cord with the general public for some weird reason, and this got some people worried.

I don't see that as tinfoil at all.  Musk has always avoided NASA criticism and has never gone "in your face" to NASA programs.
It's counterproductive for him to draw unnecessary premature incoming fire over a vehicle (FH) that is not his focus for the Mars campaign, especially several years before his real heavy lift vehicle is ready to fly.  Very little of substance towards your real goal to be gained by spiking the FH football in the end zone dancing in front of your opponents.  Let your enemies sleep soundly for your massive attack pre-dawn.

I remember the original announcement as being very "in your face" so I really don't see this as a likely reason for Musk's change of direction on FH.

That's why I think he wants to de-escalate, things got escalated due to the original announcement. I suspect the flyby mission was part of a private deal with the administration, by giving the administration bragging rights they hope to get support for ITS. It got complicated when some idiot stole the idea and proposed manned EM-1, which probably frakked Musk off, thus the announcement. Fast forward to today, the deal didn't come through, so there's no need for the flyby mission anymore, since it would just give a freebie to the administration while pissing off a whole bunch of people unnecessarily.

The original announcement wasn't "in your face" at all. It was matter of fact. Don't judge reality by clickbait headlines.

What's with the insult? Excellent to each other my butt.

Here's a quote from an article wrote by Eric Berger. He seems to be pretty respected on this site:

"By putting forth the idea that its Dragon spacecraft could essentially fly the same mission as Orion for much, much less than the government, SpaceX is boldly telling the Trump administration that the private sector could get the job done if Orion were axed from the space agency's budget to cut costs."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/02/spacex-says-it-will-send-two-people-around-the-moon-in-late-2018/

Was Eric Berger judging his reality by clickbait headlines?
« Last Edit: 03/09/2018 03:10 am by Negan »

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39270
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25239
  • Likes Given: 12115
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #38 on: 03/09/2018 03:17 am »
Yes, even him. You exaggerated what he said, and he exaggerated what Elon said. It wasn't "in your face." Also, I didn't insult you.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2018 03:22 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline su27k

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6414
  • Liked: 9100
  • Likes Given: 885
Re: Will the falcon heavy be human rated? (As of 2018)
« Reply #39 on: 03/09/2018 03:52 am »
It's all relative though, someone's matter of fact can be interpreted as "in your face" by others (and we have an example right here  ;) )

I think a more revealing Eric Berger article is this one: https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/02/if-you-think-nasa-is-frustrated-with-spacex-youre-probably-right

Especially his comment below the article:

Quote
There are things said publicly by NASA, and there are things said privately. I am fortunate to have some pretty good contacts high in NASA's administration who speak to me privately. They are not amused or enthused by this.

I will agree with you that a lot of younger engineers at NASA are very rah-rah when it comes to SpaceX. They see what the company is doing, and they love it. But, for the most part, they don't make the decisions.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0