Golden Dome

[StraumliBlight]

[CATDLR: Moderation request Sep 4, 2025 for title change]


Reuters: Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX is frontrunner to build Trump's Golden Dome missile shield [Apr 17]

Musk's rocket and satellite company is partnering with software maker Palantir, and drone builder Anduril on a bid to build key parts of Golden Dome, the sources said, which has drawn significant interest from the technology sector's burgeoning base of defense startups.

[...]

The three companies met with top officials in the Trump administration and the Pentagon in recent weeks to pitch their plan, which would build and launch 400 to more than 1,000 satellites circling the globe to sense missiles and track their movement, sources said.

A separate fleet of 200 attack satellites armed with missiles or lasers would then bring enemy missiles down, three of the sources said. The SpaceX group is not expected to be involved in the weaponization of satellites, these sources said.

[...]

In an unusual twist, SpaceX has proposed setting up its role in Golden Dome as a "subscription service" in which the government would pay for access to the technology, rather than own the system outright.

The subscription model, which has not been previously reported, could skirt some Pentagon procurement protocols allowing the system to be rolled out faster, the two sources said. While the approach would not violate any rules, the government may then be locked into a subscription and lose control over its ongoing development and pricing, they added.

[...]

SpaceX is pitching for the part of the Golden Dome initiative called the "custody layer," a constellation of satellites that would detect missiles, track their trajectory, and determine if they are heading toward the U.S., according to two sources familiar with SpaceX's goals.

SpaceX has estimated the preliminary engineering and design work for the custody layer of satellites would cost between $6 billion and $10 billion, two of the sources said. In the last five years, SpaceX has launched hundreds of operational spy satellites and more recently several prototypes, which could be retrofitted to be used for the project, the sources said.

[DigitalMan]

That was determined to be fiction

[thespacecow]

Reuters: Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX is frontrunner to build Trump's Golden Dome missile shield [Apr 17]

Elon denied it: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1912922277148086445

SpaceX has not tried to bid for any contract in this regard.

Our strong preference would be to stay focused on taking humanity to Mars.

If the President asks us to help in this regard, we will do so, but I hope that other companies (not SpaceX) can do this.

[Apollo22]

That was determined to be fiction

Source ?

[Ronsmytheiii]

The $25 billion earmarked for Golden Dome includes about $15 billion for satellites, sensors, launch infrastructure and interceptors:

    $2 billion for military satellites with air moving target indicators
    $500 million for national security space launch infrastructure
    $400 million to expand the Multi-Service Advanced Capability Hypersonic Test Bed
    $5.6 billion to develop space-based and boost-phase missile interceptors
    $2.4 billion for military non-kinetic missile defense effects, such as electronic warfare tools
    $7.2 billion to develop, procure, and integrate military space-based sensors
    $183 million for Missile Defense Agency special programs
    $250 million for directed energy technology development and testing
    $300 million for classified military space superiority programs overseen by the Strategic Capabilities Office

https://spacenews.com/armed-services-committees-propose-150-billion-funding-boost-for-defense/

[catdlr]

No SpaceX, but Tory of ULA will be present.

https://twitter.com/WashTimesOpEd/status/1927099667097034799

Watch a panel on missile defense at the #ThreatStatus Golden Dome for America event moderated by
@BenWolfgang_TWT& featuring @torybruno of @ulalaunch, Erika Marshall of @LockheedMartin, @tomkarako
 of @CSIS @Missile_Defense & @MarkCMontgomery of @FDD

The discussion occurred during the “Golden Dome for America” event hosted by Threat Status on May 13, 2025, at the Ritz-Carlton, Pentagon City, in Arlington, Va.

Paywalled article

[catdlr]

Virtual CRT: Navy and the Golden Dome

Streamed live 13 hours ago
Please join us on Thursday, July 17, 2025, at 10:00 AM (ET) for our 80th congressional roundtable virtual, Navy and the Golden Dome

Speakers:
Mr. JD Gainey, Former Senior Analyst, USINDOPACOM and National Security Affairs and Advanced Technologies

Rear Admiral (Ret.) Tom Druggan, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense, MDA

Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Former Director of Operations, U.S. Pacific Command

Mr. Riki Ellison, MDAA Founder and Chairman

[DigitalMan]

So far SpaceX has said they aren’t interested in this project.

[Star One]

That sort of complexity is going to cost more than the price quoted in this article you can bet.

The Trump administration's flagship Golden Dome missile defense system will include four layers -- one satellite-based and three on land -- with 11 short-range batteries located across the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii, according to a U.S. government slide presentation on the project first reported by Reuters.
The slides, tagged “Go Fast, Think Big!” were presented to 3,000 defense contractors in Huntsville, Alabama, last week and reveal the unprecedented complexity of the system, which faces an ambitious 2028 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pentagon-golden-dome-have-4-layer-defense-system-slides-show-2025-08-12/

[laszlo]

That sort of complexity is going to cost more than the price quoted in this article you can bet.

The Trump administration's flagship Golden Dome missile defense system will include four layers -- one satellite-based and three on land -- with 11 short-range batteries located across the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii, according to a U.S. government slide presentation on the project first reported by Reuters.
The slides, tagged “Go Fast, Think Big!” were presented to 3,000 defense contractors in Huntsville, Alabama, last week and reveal the unprecedented complexity of the system, which faces an ambitious 2028 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pentagon-golden-dome-have-4-layer-defense-system-slides-show-2025-08-12/

The article quotes $175B, of which $70B have been earmarked. No word on the other $100B.

Even more concerning, the project leader has until February 17th to "to present a full implementation plan, including satellite and ground station details".

By the time that the system is supposed to go online (2028), Russia, China and North Korea would have something like 1,700 - 2,200  ICBM-mounted warheads. That means that between the presentation of the implementation plan and the 2028 deadline, the US would have to gear up and:

    1. Manufacture an average of 3 interceptors per day (no spares, just one per incoming warhead)
    2. Manufacture the launchers for these interceptors
    3. Site and deploy the launchers and interceptors
    4. Site and deploy the radars
    5. Site and deploy the command and control systems
    6. Train and deploy the operators
    7. Set up the maintenance and logistics systems
    8. Etc., etc.

This all assumes that there will be manufacturers and such under contract to do all this, even though detailed contracts can't begin to be written up until next year. The project would be a Moonshot-scale effort. There's no chance of it happening in either the timescale or cost range that the Administration is talking about.

Nor is there a mention of how much cheaper it would be for the adversary states to defeat the system than for the US to keep out any leaker warheads. Because, when you're playing with nukes, this kind of system has to be perfect. With all the warheads that the adversary states have (or will have), even a 1% leakage rate would destroy the US as a nation. From a political point of view, it would take even fewer to fracture the country.

Then there's the question of who's going to do all this? With the Trump Administration's sustained and systematic attack on STEM, as well as the gutting of the H1B visa system and suppression of DEI initiatives, both the current and future workforce for this effort is significantly diminished.

In short, the chances of this project happening and actually working within the imagined time frame and budget are slim to none. The fact that Elon, one of the biggest tech dreamers that we've ever seen, is passing on it should be a strong indication of its actual feasibility. If it seems unrealistic even in Elon time, it's time to look at something else.

[Star One]

Out of interest would such a Golden Dome be able to stop an attack by a FOBS system, being as there is some belief that such a system is being developed not by the US?

[laszlo]

Out of interest would such a Golden Dome be able to stop an attack by a FOBS system, being as there is some belief that such a system is being developed not by the US?

Maybe that's the reason for the new missile fields mentioned in the article.

[Star One]

Out of interest would such a Golden Dome be able to stop an attack by a FOBS system, being as there is some belief that such a system is being developed not by the US?

Maybe that's the reason for the new missile fields mentioned in the article.

Still not convinced it could stop a surprise attack launched using SLBM.

[Blackstar]

I think this thread should just be renamed "Golden Dome."

https://spacenews.com/golden-dome-missile-defense-program-reshapes-military-space-spending/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=August%20s%20Most%20Read%3A%20Getting%20to%20Mars%20requires%20a%20new%20course&utm_campaign=Top%20Stories%20-%20August%202025%20-%2009042025

Golden Dome missile defense program reshapes military space spending
President Trump’s signature missile defense program is reshaping Pentagon spending priorities and expanding the role of the Space Force, says a new report by the Aerospace Corp.
by Sandra Erwin August 6, 2025   

Reentry of an unarmed U.S. Air Force Minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missile following a test launch. Credit: U.S. Army photo by Amy Hansen

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — The Trump administration’s fiscal year 2026 defense budget request marks a turning point for U.S. space policy, with the newly unveiled Golden Dome missile defense program reshaping Pentagon spending priorities and expanding the role of the Space Force, says a new report by the Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Space Policy and Strategy.

The administration is proposing about $40.2 billion in fiscal year 2026 funding for the Space Force, driven largely by the space-heavy Golden Dome initiative. The funding comes from two sources: a $26.3 billion appropriations request and an additional $13.8 billion from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a reconciliation law passed in July.

Golden Dome, likened by President Trump to the Reagan administration’s Strategic Defense Initiative, includes plans for space-based sensors and missile interceptors to protect the U.S. from peer and regional adversaries. The program accounts for $15.7 billion of the FY26 space-related reconciliation funding and has been placed under the management of Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein, underscoring its space-centric approach.

“The introduction of Golden Dome is arguably the most important development affecting the defense space budget since the inception of the Space Force,” the Aerospace report states.

[jongoff]

I think this thread should just be renamed "Golden Dome."

Seconded.

~Jon

[catdlr]

I think this thread should just be renamed "Golden Dome."

Seconded.

~Jon

Please submit a moderation request by pressing the MODERATION BUTTON OVER THERE >>>> in the right corner.

I'll make the changes, or ChrisC will, once it comes into our queues.

[jongoff]

Out of interest would such a Golden Dome be able to stop an attack by a FOBS system, being as there is some belief that such a system is being developed not by the US?

Maybe that's the reason for the new missile fields mentioned in the article.

Still not convinced it could stop a surprise attack launched using SLBM.

Ok, some quick thoughts, just going off of open sources.

I think it would depend a lot on where in the world the sub is when it launches. If it's right off the US coast, and targeting some place near the coast, then that could be challenging. Doing some reading, it sounds like for depressed trajectories, you still end up wanting to pop up to over 90-100km altitude before pitching over to avoid excessive drag and heating on the booster, and since it's a solid, it'll probably still have a similar boost phase duration since most solids aren't throttleable or capable of easily terminating thrust. So your boost phase ends up looking pretty similar to most solid fueled ICBM boost phase, at least until you're over about 90km, so detecting and intercepting a depressed-trajectory SLBM sounds like it might not be dramatically harder than doing so for a normal ICBM. You still have about a 2.5-3min boost phase, you're still likely to detect it once it punches through the cloud layers if you have space-based missile detection spacecraft, and you'll still have on the order of 120s to effect the intercept. The big differences seem to be that a) you likely would have to do the intercept "endo-atmospheric" (ie <120km altitude), and b) there wouldn't really be much in the way of a mid-course phase for intercept. You'd basically move straight from boost phase into terminal phase.

So, at least in theory, if you have a system that's actually capable of detecting, tracking, and space-based intercepting ground-launched ICBMs in boost phase, there's a decent chance they could also intercept SLBMs flying depressed trajectories. At least if their kill vehicles are capable of mildly endoatmospheric intercept (most of the depressed trajectory stuff I saw said 90-120km was the likely apogee for a depressed trajectory). Endo-atmospheric intercept is definitely a harder nut to crack than exo-atmospheric, since your kill vehicle and its sensors are basically starting reentry during the final moments of the intercept. But it's something the DOD is actively funding as part of this effort.

My marginally-semi-informed $0.02,

~Jon

[jongoff]

Please submit a moderation request by pressing the MODERATION BUTTON OVER THERE >>>> in the right corner.

I'll make the changes, or ChrisC will, once it comes into our queues.

Apologies, I use the moderation button so rarely I forgot about its existence...

~Jon

[catdlr]

Please submit a moderation request by pressing the MODERATION BUTTON OVER THERE >>>> in the right corner.

I'll make the changes, or ChrisC will, once it comes into our queues.

Apologies, I use the moderation button so rarely I forgot about its existence...

~Jon

Completed.  Check the title of this and the ongoing post.

[Blackstar]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/technology/space-capsules-ai-lasers-tech-golden-dome.html

Tech Companies Show Off for Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’
Tech companies are displaying A.I., lasers and more as they compete for a piece of President Trump’s ambitious plan for a missile defense shield.
By Sheera Frenkel

Reporting from El Segundo, Calif.
    Sept. 8, 2025

In May, more than 100 employees of Varda Space Industries gathered at the aerospace start-up’s Southern California headquarters to watch a real-time feed of a capsule hurtling toward Earth at more than 18,000 miles per hour.

Every few minutes, a voice crackled through the speakers with coordinates from Varda’s partners in Australia, where the capsule was projected to fall. The updates were met with cheers, as Varda’s calculations of the journey proved right. The capsule landed “on target,” or where the company had predicted.

The exercise was intended to show that Varda and its partners could successfully track a hypersonic missile, rocket or drone and calculate its trajectory from space within minutes, so that the object could theoretically be intercepted. The technologies to pinpoint such fast-moving objects are highly coveted, and no military currently has them, defense officials said.