This may have huge implications for SpaceX's DoD business: Trump just issued an executive order to revive SDI/Star Wars. ...This is brilliant pebbles, which as have been pointed out many times on X, is now entirely doable as proven by Starlink.
Quote from: thespacecow on 01/28/2025 04:50 amThis may have huge implications for SpaceX's DoD business: Trump just issued an executive order to revive SDI/Star Wars. A bit confusingly he called it The Iron Dome For America, but if you read the order it's basically an anti-ICBM shield, aimed at not just to defeat missiles from "rogue nations", but from "peer, near-peer" adversaries as well. It's going to have strong space components such as:QuoteSec. 3. Implementation. Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Defense shall: (a) Submit to the President a reference architecture, capabilities-based requirements, and an implementation plan for the next-generation missile defense shield. The architecture shall include, at a minimum, plans for: ...(iii) Development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors capable of boost-phase intercept; ...This is brilliant pebbles, which as have been pointed out many times on X, is now entirely doable as proven by Starlink.Ugh.I've always maintained that the Kessler syndrome can be avoided, but that's assuming nobody is intentionally going to cause it.If I were a peer nation that's incapable of competing with it but is volnerable to it, it'd be a red line for me, and it's super easy to defeat in advance with "dumbass pebbles".Except dumbass pebbles, they're not a targeted weapon. They basically take out spherical shells (less some polar donut holes)
This may have huge implications for SpaceX's DoD business: Trump just issued an executive order to revive SDI/Star Wars. A bit confusingly he called it The Iron Dome For America, but if you read the order it's basically an anti-ICBM shield, aimed at not just to defeat missiles from "rogue nations", but from "peer, near-peer" adversaries as well. It's going to have strong space components such as:QuoteSec. 3. Implementation. Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Defense shall: (a) Submit to the President a reference architecture, capabilities-based requirements, and an implementation plan for the next-generation missile defense shield. The architecture shall include, at a minimum, plans for: ...(iii) Development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors capable of boost-phase intercept; ...This is brilliant pebbles, which as have been pointed out many times on X, is now entirely doable as proven by Starlink.
Sec. 3. Implementation. Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Defense shall: (a) Submit to the President a reference architecture, capabilities-based requirements, and an implementation plan for the next-generation missile defense shield. The architecture shall include, at a minimum, plans for: ...(iii) Development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors capable of boost-phase intercept; ...
It's not at all clear that area denial in orbit is any easier than "proliferated interceptors". The effectiveness of the denial is proportional to the density of the impactors: mass throughout the available volume. As the available volume is huge this requires enormous amounts of mass, thousands of tons at minimum and probably more like tens of thousands of tons to be effective on a useful time scale. That means it requires highly advanced launch systems, or a enormous effort to scale out existing launch technology. And at Starlink altitudes the launch requirements are compounded by the fact that drag clears the impactors out of orbit in a few years, so the continuous launching of huge amounts of mass is required. I did a BOTE a while back on what it would take to deny LEO to large targets (e.g. Keyhole), and it showed a requirement of roughly 7500 tonnes in LEO just to reduce the mean operational lifetime to 2 years. And that was without considering any shielding on the target satellites, which can quickly increase the impactor mass requirement by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude.
This morning, the Washington Post has an overview article of the military implications of SpaceX's lead. Starlink/Starshield, Starship, and rocket cargo all discussed. The lead over China is guessed to be ~10 years. The article plays it straight.QuoteElon Musk’s Martian dreams are a boon to the U.S. militaryDefense experts say SpaceX has leapfrogged global rivals and could help the United States deter -- or win -- a war against China.Amused observers have long dismissed Elon Musk’s dream to colonize Mars as unserious science fiction. But in his pursuit of the Red Planet, Musk has managed to build a deadly serious business with vast military consequences.Security experts say SpaceX has leapfrogged so far ahead in several critical technologies that it could deter major rivals like China from engaging in a war with the United States — or tip the balance if one breaks out. Others worry that it could provoke an untimely response.Access through an archive site if you don't have a subscription to WaPo.https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/12/07/musk-mars-technology-us-national-security/
Elon Musk’s Martian dreams are a boon to the U.S. militaryDefense experts say SpaceX has leapfrogged global rivals and could help the United States deter -- or win -- a war against China.Amused observers have long dismissed Elon Musk’s dream to colonize Mars as unserious science fiction. But in his pursuit of the Red Planet, Musk has managed to build a deadly serious business with vast military consequences.Security experts say SpaceX has leapfrogged so far ahead in several critical technologies that it could deter major rivals like China from engaging in a war with the United States — or tip the balance if one breaks out. Others worry that it could provoke an untimely response.
Keep in mind, while it's likely that the brilliant carriers will be shielded, the Starlinks won't be, and my concern is them, not them.
It's a dumbass escalation that will result in (surprise) counter escalation, and there are a million ways to escalate which the pebbles are useless against.
Quote from: meekGee on 01/28/2025 12:28 pmKeep in mind, while it's likely that the brilliant carriers will be shielded, the Starlinks won't be, and my concern is them, not them.Starlink satellites already have shields around critical areas. As satellites get bigger, the cost for losing one to MMOD increases, and the cost for adding shield decreases due to lower launch cost, so I think future satellites will get even better protection.Besides, Russia and China are already planning to attack Starlink before this announcement, so I don't think this put Starlink in more danger than it is already in.Quote from: meekGeeIt's a dumbass escalation that will result in (surprise) counter escalation, and there are a million ways to escalate which the pebbles are useless against.I'm pretty sure China is already thinking about this, this is one of the most obvious military use case for reusable launch, I mean it's literally what DC-X was originally designed for. If US doesn't do this it'll just be left behind, like in hypersonic where it naively think just because US doesn't weaponize it, nobody else will, that was a big mistake.
Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) introduced the “Iron Dome Act” on Feb. 6, proposing $19.5 billion in funding for fiscal year 2026 to implement Trump’s recent executive order dubbed “Iron Dome for America.” The legislation includes $960 million for space-based technologies.
SpaceNewsQuoteSens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) introduced the “Iron Dome Act” on Feb. 6, proposing $19.5 billion in funding for fiscal year 2026 to implement Trump’s recent executive order dubbed “Iron Dome for America.” The legislation includes $960 million for space-based technologies.
In one case, Pentagon officials are reviewing an outside proposal to build a defense system using technology from Anduril, Palantir and Elon Musk’s SpaceX, according to people familiar with the matter. The plan is a response to President Trump’s January executive order to develop a next-generation missile defense shield that the administration called the Iron Dome for America, an effort since renamed the “Golden Dome.”The defense-tech sector’s missile-defense pitch is one of a few options the Defense Department could pursue to meet the president’s requirements, which include a satellite network and space-based interceptors. The executive order requires the Pentagon to submit an implementation plan for the missile shield by late March.
...NRO Director Chris Scolese called this week “the world’s most capable, resilient, and technologically advanced satellite constellation.”<snip>The constellation is made up of what are believed to be Starshield satellites, a government variant of SpaceX’s Starlink. In a video statement shared on April 8, Scolese described the May 2024 launch of the NROL-146 mission as “setting a new standard for data collection, speed, and responsiveness.”“This enhanced constellation is already shortening revisit times and increasing observational persistence; delivering enhanced coordination; and empowering faster data processing, fusion, and transmission speeds. All with greater resilience and security,” Scolese said.“Most profoundly, we’re making it harder for our adversaries to hide, while reducing time to insights for our customers from minutes to seconds – strengthening national security with improved prospects for lethality, when it’s necessary.”Without going into firm specifics, Scolese said that across the past eight missions supporting this constellation, SpaceX launched more than 150 satellites on behalf of the NRO.
I note B1063, B1071, and B1088 were used for 8 of the nine previous NRO Future Proliferated Architecture launches. 📝
The Space Force in contracting with SpaceX for a new government-owned, contractor-operated satellite communication constellation in low Earth orbit (LEO), called MILNET, that eventually will be integrated into the service’s grand plan for a “hybrid mesh network” combining commercial and Defense Department satellites, a senior Space Force official revealed today.
MILNET, which has rarely been discussed publicly until now, comprises “480-plus” satellites, Weisler said, that will be operated by SpaceX
The network will use terminals created by SpaceX for its Starshield satellites being configured for military use, which also can link into SpaceX’s commercial Starlink constellation. The Starshield terminals have more encryption than those sold to consumers for Starlink access, he explained.
FORT MCCOY, Wis. - Many things can cripple a military. One is the inability to adapt and integrate new technology and remain competitive on the battlefield, and the other is the loss of communication between personnel, military systems, and allies. U.S. Army Reserve Soldiers assigned to the 324th Expeditionary Signal Battalion (ESB), Bravo Company, are working to ensure that the Army continues to move into the future by utilizing new and better technology with their use of SpaceX’s laser-operated Starshield communications system.“This is the UAT-222 dish,” said Cpt. Harvey Degree, a lead engineer with the 324th ESB. “This is Starlink’s high-speed dish. It’s a five-terabyte global plan that we use to activate our Starlinks and essentially make them Starshields.” The Starshield provides fast, high-bandwidth, low-latency information transfer to any unit, anywhere in the world, with upload speeds between 300-500 Mbps, and low 25 ms latencies.The ability to reliably communicate within a military has always been a top priority that has existed as long as there has been conflict. As technology advances, not only does communication become easier, but the transport of communication devices also becomes safer and quicker.One of the Army’s standard communication devices, such as the Satellite Transportable Terminal (STT), is around 12 feet long and 20 feet tall, and requires a large vehicle or trailer to move it, making transportation in a combat zone a danger to the equipment and to the soldiers tasked with using it. But the newer Starshield technology is a small square about two feet on each side. Along with its smaller size, the unit has fewer power requirements and components, allowing Soldiers to begin operations within minutes. In a field where efficiency and urgency can be the difference between mission success and mission failure, these improvements can be invaluable.Because the Starlink systems are designed to be civilian-friendly, the time it takes to train soldiers in the use of this technology is also drastically lowered. “We’ve been using this new system for about five days,” said Sgt. Chandon Otten, an engineer with the 324th ESB. “You just grab it out of the box, put it up, there you go.”All of this combines to make a better system that improves the Army’s capabilities in the field, with better data, speed, and decision-making. “That’s the bottom line, it saves lives,” said Degree.
Sascha Meinrath, a Penn State professor who has studied Starlink’s capabilities, recently published an analysis about the ability of the network to support internet traffic amid increasing use. In comments to FedScoop, he said the undisclosed “potential dependencies” between Starlink and Starshield have left “everyone from the U.S. military to U.S. states looking to bridge the digital divide with unknown downside risks.”“Starshield and Starlink may share components of a common network architecture — yet the limitations of any shared assets have not been publicly disclosed,” he added. “This introduces serious potential life-safety issues, both for military personnel and to the general public.”
“For many U.S. Government users, Starlink and Starshield are indistinguishable,” the Air Force argued. “Starshield contracts are so sensitive that the work under them is classified. … [T]he distinction between Starshield and Starlink does not exist for some U.S. Government users, and Starlink itself is the basis for exclusive and specialized U.S. Government services and capability.”
QuoteSascha Meinrath, a Penn State professor who has studied Starlink’s capabilities, recently published an analysis about the ability of the network to support internet traffic amid increasing use. In comments to FedScoop, he said the undisclosed “potential dependencies” between Starlink and Starshield have left “everyone from the U.S. military to U.S. states looking to bridge the digital divide with unknown downside risks.”“Starshield and Starlink may share components of a common network architecture — yet the limitations of any shared assets have not been publicly disclosed,” he added. “This introduces serious potential life-safety issues, both for military personnel and to the general public.”
SpaceX differentiates between Starlink and Starshield, but the services are intertwined [Aug 13]QuoteSascha Meinrath, a Penn State professor who has studied Starlink’s capabilities, recently published an analysis about the ability of the network to support internet traffic amid increasing use. In comments to FedScoop, he said the undisclosed “potential dependencies” between Starlink and Starshield have left “everyone from the U.S. military to U.S. states looking to bridge the digital divide with unknown downside risks.”“Starshield and Starlink may share components of a common network architecture — yet the limitations of any shared assets have not been publicly disclosed,” he added. “This introduces serious potential life-safety issues, both for military personnel and to the general public.”
