Quote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 12:20 amMy prediction is that the MCT transportation system will be used to support a small first crew in a very traditional way (saturate them with supplies) and have them set up the rest of this first technology set while dependent on the supplies.So you won't have "ISRU working and tanks are full" before the first crew launches. This probably shortens the timeline by several synods.Looking forward to next month...That was my expectation too. Elon Musk stated clearly the opposite, there would be fuel ready when people land but he has changed his mind before.But about his announcement. If this becomes a generic statement about a colony without detailed announcement of the BFR/BFS architecture it is not what was announced. It would be a let down and a retreat from his announcement. I cannot believe that yet, just from this eMail by the organizer.
My prediction is that the MCT transportation system will be used to support a small first crew in a very traditional way (saturate them with supplies) and have them set up the rest of this first technology set while dependent on the supplies.So you won't have "ISRU working and tanks are full" before the first crew launches. This probably shortens the timeline by several synods.Looking forward to next month...
>I'm prepared for it to actually be quite underwhelming (like the original iPhone was in some respects), but it should have some new thinking that will similarly induce a paradigm change.
Quote from: guckyfan on 08/22/2016 02:14 amQuote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 12:20 amMy prediction is that the MCT transportation system will be used to support a small first crew in a very traditional way (saturate them with supplies) and have them set up the rest of this first technology set while dependent on the supplies.So you won't have "ISRU working and tanks are full" before the first crew launches. This probably shortens the timeline by several synods.Looking forward to next month...That was my expectation too. Elon Musk stated clearly the opposite, there would be fuel ready when people land but he has changed his mind before.But about his announcement. If this becomes a generic statement about a colony without detailed announcement of the BFR/BFS architecture it is not what was announced. It would be a let down and a retreat from his announcement. I cannot believe that yet, just from this eMail by the organizer.If we're talking about just enough propellant for an evac-to-earth of a minimal crew, then you can send the fuel from earth, since you're using MCTs. Clearly not a sustainable practice, but still easier than trying to set up a working power and ISRU plant using robotics - I think.But who knows. Maybe they can pack a nuclear reaction in an MCT, a bunch of autonomous miner-rovers, and the only reason we're finding it difficult to imagine is that we're not thinking big enough.
Quote from: mikelepage on 08/22/2016 03:51 am>I'm prepared for it to actually be quite underwhelming (like the original iPhone was in some respects), but it should have some new thinking that will similarly induce a paradigm change.If the reported details are anything near correct it'll be anything but underwhelming. To toss 100, or even 50, tonnes to the Martian surface would need a system of unprecedented scale.
Quote from: mfck on 08/21/2016 10:11 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 08/21/2016 09:34 pmI think there's virtually zero chance that the first crew to land on Mars won't include at least one NASA astronaut (if not several). How that gets worked out, I have no idea, but I'm sure it will.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 08/21/2016 09:34 pm
Quote from: Robotbeat on 08/22/2016 01:03 amQuote from: mfck on 08/21/2016 10:11 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 08/21/2016 09:34 pmI think there's virtually zero chance that the first crew to land on Mars won't include at least one NASA astronaut (if not several). How that gets worked out, I have no idea, but I'm sure it will.Think the presence of a token NASA PERSON depends on how the folks at Hawthorne and at the Hill are getting along plus some substantial NASA incentives. And no civil servant will be the first person stepping onto Mars from a BFS.
I find it curious that you think the inclusion of a NASA person would be "token". It's not like they spend a decade training for these things or anything I would expect the first crew will be 100% NASA people, or at least, 100% US citizens trained at NASA astronaut training centres, what with ITAR and all. Training up astronauts is expensive and SpaceX has no need to duplicate that process in house. At least, not for the foreseeable future.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 08/22/2016 06:03 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 08/22/2016 01:03 amQuote from: mfck on 08/21/2016 10:11 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 08/21/2016 09:34 pmI think there's virtually zero chance that the first crew to land on Mars won't include at least one NASA astronaut (if not several). How that gets worked out, I have no idea, but I'm sure it will.Think the presence of a token NASA PERSON depends on how the folks at Hawthorne and at the Hill are getting along plus some substantial NASA incentives. And no civil servant will be the first person stepping onto Mars from a BFS.I find it curious that you think the inclusion of a NASA person would be "token". It's not like they spend a decade training for these things or anything I would expect the first crew will be 100% NASA people, or at least, 100% US citizens trained at NASA astronaut training centres, what with ITAR and all. Training up astronauts is expensive and SpaceX has no need to duplicate that process in house. At least, not for the foreseeable future.
Quote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 03:08 amQuote from: guckyfan on 08/22/2016 02:14 amQuote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 12:20 amMy prediction is that the MCT transportation system will be used to support a small first crew in a very traditional way (saturate them with supplies) and have them set up the rest of this first technology set while dependent on the supplies.So you won't have "ISRU working and tanks are full" before the first crew launches. This probably shortens the timeline by several synods.Looking forward to next month...That was my expectation too. Elon Musk stated clearly the opposite, there would be fuel ready when people land but he has changed his mind before.But about his announcement. If this becomes a generic statement about a colony without detailed announcement of the BFR/BFS architecture it is not what was announced. It would be a let down and a retreat from his announcement. I cannot believe that yet, just from this eMail by the organizer.If we're talking about just enough propellant for an evac-to-earth of a minimal crew, then you can send the fuel from earth, since you're using MCTs. Clearly not a sustainable practice, but still easier than trying to set up a working power and ISRU plant using robotics - I think.But who knows. Maybe they can pack a nuclear reaction in an MCT, a bunch of autonomous miner-rovers, and the only reason we're finding it difficult to imagine is that we're not thinking big enough.I like meekGee's reasoning here. The reason why robots work so well here on Earth is that they have a human nearby. I have many years programming CNC Machines. I am yet to see a machine that can look at a drawing/model and come up with an approach, treat each feature wth the respect it needs, choose the holding technique, cutting tools, fixtures, etc, etc. SciFi robots simply do not exist except in our imaginations. I support the idea of a minimal human advance construction team. I also think that their "escape vehicle" will utilise fuel transported from Earth.All bets off if Mr Musk has been developing AI on the side though! ;-)
If we're talking about just enough propellant for an evac-to-earth of a minimal crew, then you can send the fuel from earth, since you're using MCTs. Clearly not a sustainable practice, but still easier than trying to set up a working power and ISRU plant using robotics - I think.But who knows. Maybe they can pack a nuclear reaction in an MCT, a bunch of autonomous miner-rovers, and the only reason we're finding it difficult to imagine is that we're not thinking big enough.
Quote from: Aussie_Space_Nut on 08/22/2016 04:40 amQuote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 03:08 amQuote from: guckyfan on 08/22/2016 02:14 amQuote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 12:20 amMy prediction is that the MCT transportation system will be used to support a small first crew in a very traditional way (saturate them with supplies) and have them set up the rest of this first technology set while dependent on the supplies.So you won't have "ISRU working and tanks are full" before the first crew launches. This probably shortens the timeline by several synods.Looking forward to next month...That was my expectation too. Elon Musk stated clearly the opposite, there would be fuel ready when people land but he has changed his mind before.But about his announcement. If this becomes a generic statement about a colony without detailed announcement of the BFR/BFS architecture it is not what was announced. It would be a let down and a retreat from his announcement. I cannot believe that yet, just from this eMail by the organizer.If we're talking about just enough propellant for an evac-to-earth of a minimal crew, then you can send the fuel from earth, since you're using MCTs. Clearly not a sustainable practice, but still easier than trying to set up a working power and ISRU plant using robotics - I think.But who knows. Maybe they can pack a nuclear reaction in an MCT, a bunch of autonomous miner-rovers, and the only reason we're finding it difficult to imagine is that we're not thinking big enough.I like meekGee's reasoning here. The reason why robots work so well here on Earth is that they have a human nearby. I have many years programming CNC Machines. I am yet to see a machine that can look at a drawing/model and come up with an approach, treat each feature wth the respect it needs, choose the holding technique, cutting tools, fixtures, etc, etc. SciFi robots simply do not exist except in our imaginations. I support the idea of a minimal human advance construction team. I also think that their "escape vehicle" will utilise fuel transported from Earth.All bets off if Mr Musk has been developing AI on the side though! ;-)True for CNC machines, but with 3D printers with dissolvable supports, you can throw in a drawing file any which way and it'll work.Anyway, that's not the sort of robots SpaceX will be sending. For example: Imagine a big roomba that scoops up regolith randomly from a designated area and plops it into a processor that extracts the 1-4% absorbed water. Or a remotely commanded rover that pulls out a rolled up solar array, maybe plops some regolith on the end of it to keep it down or maybe drives stakes into the ground.Fairly simple stuff, and doesn't have to be purely autonomous.
Quote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 03:08 amIf we're talking about just enough propellant for an evac-to-earth of a minimal crew, then you can send the fuel from earth, since you're using MCTs. Clearly not a sustainable practice, but still easier than trying to set up a working power and ISRU plant using robotics - I think.But who knows. Maybe they can pack a nuclear reaction in an MCT, a bunch of autonomous miner-rovers, and the only reason we're finding it difficult to imagine is that we're not thinking big enough.If they're playing off of this part of Zubrin's script, no autonomous regolith mining is needed - they'll bring a tank of hydrogen and synthesize methane and oxidizer from the H2 they bring plus the CO2 in the martian atmosphere. Only robotics needed will be whatever it takes to set up the power system (either spreading out solar cells and dusting them off every so often, or hauling a fission reactor to a safe distance and turning it on).
Quote from: meekGee on 08/22/2016 03:08 amIf we're talking about just enough propellant for an evac-to-earth of a minimal crew, then you can send the fuel from earth, since you're using MCTs. Clearly not a sustainable practice, but still easier than trying to set up a working power and ISRU plant using robotics - I think.But who knows. Maybe they can pack a nuclear reaction in an MCT, a bunch of autonomous miner-rovers, and the only reason we're finding it difficult to imagine is that we're not thinking big enough.If they're playing off of this part of Zubrin's script,
no autonomous regolith mining is needed
they'll bring a tank of hydrogen and synthesize methane and oxidizer from the H2 they bring plus the CO2 in the martian atmosphere.
Only robotics needed will be whatever it takes to set up the power system (either spreading out solar cells and dusting them off every so often, or hauling a fission reactor to a safe distance and turning it on).