What will be the next nation In space?

[stanmarsh]

Good article on recent and impending moon missions. Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3627746.cms

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India launched its first unmanned lunar mission on Wednesday joining China, Japan and the United States in a renewed race to explore the moon.


Europe's first lunar orbiter, SMART-1, completed its mission in 2006. Here are some planned future lunar missions:

* India's Chandrayaan-1 (moon vehicle) spacecraft which blasted off from a southern spaceport will map a three-dimensional atlas of the moon, and the surface's chemical and mineral composition. India plans to send an astronaut into space by 2014, and a manned mission to the moon by 2020.

* China launched its first moon orbiter in October last year to scan the lunar surface in preparation for an unmanned moon vehicle planned for 2012. Chang'e 1, named after a legendary Chinese goddess who flew to moon, has since sent back images from the lunar surface. Last month China launched its third manned space mission capping with the country's first space walk.

* Japan launched a lunar probe on September 14 last year nearly four years behind schedule. The mission, nicknamed Kaguya after a moon princess in a Japanese folktale, consisted of a main orbiter and two baby satellites equipped with 14 observation instruments designed to examine surface terrain, gravity and other lunar features for clues on the origin and evolution of the moon. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) hopes to send astronauts to the moon by 2025, although Japan has not yet attempted manned space flights

*The US space agency, NASA, plans to build a permanently occupied base on the moon, most likely at the lunar south pole, which will serve as a science outpost as well as a testbed for technology needed for future travel to Mars. The construction will follow a series of flights to the moon scheduled to begin by 2020. It also plans to provide a communications system linking Earth and the moon.

* Britain could send its first unmanned mission to the moon by 2010 to study the lunar surface and find the best site for humans to inhabit, the BBC reported last year, citing a report by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd, a top British space company The idea would be to launch two forays to the moon. The first, named "Moonlight", would fire four darts the size of suitcases onto the moon's surface from orbit to test for quakes, tremors and other data. If the mission is successful, a second probe, "Moonraker", would be launched with the aim of landing on the moon

* The Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) of Russia is also planning human space missions that will include flights to the moon, Russia's Interfax agency has reported. Russia has a long-range programme to develop space industry including manned moon flights by 2025, and a permanent station on the moon's surface in 2028-2032, Anatoly Perminov, head of the space agency, said.

PRIVATE SECTOR:

Web search firm Google Inc. is sponsoring a $30m competition for an unmanned, privately funded lunar landing. First prize is $20m for a group that can land a lunar rover -- an unmanned robotic probe -- on the moon, take it on a 500 metre (1,640 ft) trek and broadcast video back to Earth by December 31, 2012. The prize falls to $15m if the landing takes place by December 31, 2014. A second-place winner will receive $5m, and there are other prizes for milestones such as finding relics from previous landings and detecting water ice.

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[faustod]

I think India is in pole position.

[brihath]

I believe it is a toss up between Europe and India.

Europe was the fourth nation to independently orbit a human rated vehicle with the ATV, alshough it is not reentry capable.  India has launch vehicle capability but has not yet flown a human rated vehicle.

It depends on who has the financial wherewithal and will to build a human rated spacecraft that can orbit and return.  I think Europe has a head start with Ariane V/ATV.  They just have to go the next step by developing a reentry vehicle.  The lengthy flight experience of Ariane V bodes well for man-rating it, and it was always intended to be man-rated for Hermes.

I think India has farther to go, but the Indians are quick studies on anything they apply themselves to.  Still, I think the edge goes to Europe at the moment. 

Any other nations have more developmental work to do and aren't in the running right now.

[stockman]

I believe it is a toss up between Europe and India.

Europe was the fourth nation to independently orbit a human rated vehicle with the ATV, alshough it is not reentry capable.  India has launch vehicle capability but has not yet flown a human rated vehicle.

It depends on who has the financial wherewithal and will to build a human rated spacecraft that can orbit and return.  I think Europe has a head start with Ariane V/ATV.  They just have to go the next step by developing a reentry vehicle.  The lengthy flight experience of Ariane V bodes well for man-rating it, and it was always intended to be man-rated for Hermes.

I think India has farther to go, but the Indians are quick studies on anything they apply themselves to.  Still, I think the edge goes to Europe at the moment. 

Any other nations have more developmental work to do and aren't in the running right now.

Fundamentally I agree with you here however - just one small nit - Europe is not a nation - its a continent - I don't see any individual european Nation ever doing this on their own...

[hesidu]

People are talking about space race between China and USA. I think it's baseless. But if India put a man on the space, that will definitely trigger a space race in Asia. As a space fan, i would like to see a space race.

[hop]

People are talking about space race between China and USA. I think it's baseless. But if India put a man on the space, that will definitely trigger a space race in Asia. As a space fan, i would like to see a space race.

A space race to me implies dumping buckets of money into unsustainable propaganda efforts. This strikes me as counterproductive to the goal of becoming a truly spacefaring species.

I do revise my earlier prediction however. With the success of the ATV and fairly serious talk of an crewed variant, they could easily be next. India and private industry are still the other leading contenders.

[ChrisGebhardt]

DOUBLE NIT:  It's "WHO will be the next nation in space?" not "What will be the next nation in space?"

And when are options going to be added to this poll for us to vote on?

[mr.columbus]

I think India is in pole position.

I concur. Europe is not going for an own human-rated vehicle any time soon. Nor is Japan. The only other nation with the capabilities and actual plans is India. It may take until 2016, 2018 or even 2020+, but the next country orbiting an astronaut in a spacecraft developed in that particular country will be India.

[johnxx9]

India has completed the primary designing of its  space vehicle called the "Orbital Vehicle"! Here is the official design.

It will be 4-ton cone shaped vehicle with a capability to launch 3 people into 400 km LEO ! The design is finalized and waiting approval and will gt it by the begining  of next year! India will launch 2 more SREs before the mission in 2014-15!

[isro-watch]

i would like to add that the necessary infrastructure here at sriharikota is also being upgraded for a manned space flight...

systems like emergency exit at the last minute for the crew...etc...were being talked off...with funds released for this...the structures may sprang up soon...


but i still give private US companies a better chance at launching as they can dedicate themselves to such launches unlike ISRO...furthermore ISRO may launch it atleast a few years late than claimed in press just like its other launches.

60/40....US companies/ISRO

[quickshot89]

Fundamentally I agree with you here however - just one small nit - Europe is not a nation - its a continent - I don't see any individual european Nation ever doing this on their own...

the USA gets away with it why cant europe

id say europe getting an ATV man rated within the next 5-10 years or so, they have the booster, and the service module, just need the re-entry system worked out

[bad_astra]

Europe has a lot of reentry work already done, via ARD. I still think India will beat them to it, if Europe ever tries at all.

[aquarius]

The way things look right now, India should be the next one. Although, I think, their 2015 date is unrealistic.

As for Europe, they´ll probably be conducting feasibility studies in the next few decades.

[Vahe231991]

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

It may be tempting for me not to post on this thread because it over ten years old, but given the scope of this question, I should emphasize that Iran and the two Koreas are now the most recent countries to use indigenous SLVs to put satellites into orbit. Judging indications in news stories pertaining to Indian space exploration are that India will be the next nation to send a man into space with the Gaganyaan spacecraft.