Author Topic: What will be the next nation In space? (Read 54564 times)

Celeritas · « **on:** 05/03/2007 03:30 pm »

Which nation will be next to join Russia, USA, and China in the independently-launched man-in-space club?

Joffan · « **Reply #1 on:** 05/03/2007 03:51 pm »

I think the EU could launch a man easily, but they have not shown any interest. Japan could probably also do so quickly but are unlikely to get the funding; they operate on tight budgets. India will take maybe another 4-5 years, but I think they will be next. I don't see Malaysia getting there ahead of India unless they take a lot of risks.

William Barton · « **Reply #2 on:** 05/03/2007 04:18 pm »

Assuming at least a Gemini-class spacecraft, and not getting a leg up from somebody already there, I think the path from program start to flight is about five years. At the moment, I think SpaceX is closest. That could change, though, if the Falcon 9 fails, and one of the other competing entities such as RpK succeeds, or one of the national space agencies suddenly gets a crash-program budget.

NotGncDude · « **Reply #3 on:** 05/03/2007 04:28 pm »

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William Barton - 3/5/2007 12:18 PM

Assuming at least a Gemini-class spacecraft, and not getting a leg up from somebody already there, I think the path from program start to flight is about five years. At the moment, I think SpaceX is closest. That could change, though, if the Falcon 9 fails, and one of the other competing entities such as RpK succeeds, or one of the national space agencies suddenly gets a crash-program budget.

I wouldn't count on RpK. Suppose that they get the money they need and build the K1 to resupply the ISS. The mods required to make it manned are massive. It's simply not designed for it. They are going for the unmanned resupply mainly.

William Barton · « **Reply #4 on:** 05/03/2007 04:42 pm »

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GncDude - 3/5/2007 12:28 PM

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William Barton - 3/5/2007 12:18 PM

Assuming at least a Gemini-class spacecraft, and not getting a leg up from somebody already there, I think the path from program start to flight is about five years. At the moment, I think SpaceX is closest. That could change, though, if the Falcon 9 fails, and one of the other competing entities such as RpK succeeds, or one of the national space agencies suddenly gets a crash-program budget.

I wouldn't count on RpK. Suppose that they get the money they need and build the K1 to resupply the ISS. The mods required to make it manned are massive. It's simply not designed for it. They are going for the unmanned resupply mainly.

Just a frinstance, because they're the #2 COTS contender, and they do have nice viewgraphs of a manned K-1. I also don't think they can absorb as many failures as SpaceX (SpaceX spin issues notwithstanding). I think if t\Space could round up a major backer, they'd stand a chance. For that matter, if ULA proceeds with the Dream Chaser plan, and manages to get the vehicle aloft in 2012, I guess that would count. There's also the possibility some entity or another will decide to go with something equivalent to a Mercury capsule, which could be done pretty quickly, and then launched on a commercial LV for a 3-orbit tour...

Joffan · « **Reply #5 on:** 05/03/2007 06:03 pm »

Duh. Hijacked poll, a private US company is not a nation, however much GE would like to think otherwise.

mr.columbus · « **Reply #6 on:** 05/04/2007 07:35 am »

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Joffan - 3/5/2007 2:03 PM

Duh. Hijacked poll, a private US company is not a nation, however much GE would like to think otherwise.

Yep, the poll is also flawed because a. the EU is not a nation rather a supernational entity b. the EU has not much to do with ESA, which is engaged in space flight c. "space" also means suborbital flights and d. does that question exclude any cooperation between two space agencies (ESA/Roskosmos) because it speaks of "independent" space flight?

I think the more precise question would be:

Which governmental space agency or private corporation will make the next orbital spaceflight with a vehicle developed by it / or jointly developed by it and another entity?
a. ESA b. JAXA c. ISRO d. SpaceX e. RpK f. Boeing/*Partner* g. Other private entity or governmental space agency

Celeritas · « **Reply #7 on:** 05/04/2007 12:38 pm »

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mr.columbus - 4/5/2007 2:35 AM

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Joffan - 3/5/2007 2:03 PM

Duh. Hijacked poll, a private US company is not a nation, however much GE would like to think otherwise.

Yep, the poll is also flawed because a. the EU is not a nation rather a supernational entity b. the EU has not much to do with ESA, which is engaged in space flight c. "space" also means suborbital flights and d. does that question exclude any cooperation between two space agencies (ESA/Roskosmos) because it speaks of "independent" space flight?

I think the more precise question would be:

Which governmental space agency or private corporation will make the next orbital spaceflight with a vehicle developed by it / or jointly developed by it and another entity?
a. ESA b. JAXA c. ISRO d. SpaceX e. RpK f. Boeing/*Partner* g. Other private entity or governmental space agency

Yes, it is a quick and dirty poll--I was literally being pulled out of my seat when I posted and did not catch the fundamental flaws inherent within.

A. and B. If just to simplify things, I'll consider anything that comes out of Europe or--from a launch standpoint, French Guyana--to fall under the category European Union, multinational state status aside. I apologize if anyone is offended by this obviously overbroad classification.

C. Orbital space flight is what I had in mind--I should have clarified this.

D. The voters can use whatever reasonable criteria they want when it comes to launches resulting from cooperation between agencies.

With that being said, I am intrigued by the results of the poll and I thank everyone who has participated. :cool:

02hurnella · « **Reply #8 on:** 05/04/2007 03:33 pm »

The EU and the ESA are very different. The EU bring a number of trade benefits but they are very widely disliked for interfering in National issues and incompetence. Please dont tar the ESA with the same brush. They spend thier lives struggling against that. The countries in the EU are different to those in the ESA too.

Of course the ESA could do manned operations. The ATV is a million miles more sophisticated than Shenzhou, but is the political will there? Well it is part of the ESA's Aurora program to do manned operations. Thing is they have to sneak it up on the politicians so they don't back out and panic. They are planning a space recovery experiment for this year a bit like SRE. I think they are trying to reach the stage where they can say to the politicians
"look its no risk and will be cheap, and it will boost your popularity".

The ESA might just attempt manned spaceflight, but only after lots of flawless ATV flights so the politicians aren't at risk. I doubt the possibility of collaborations with Russia now they look so sinister!

I would love to see the indians or Japanese do it! Those programs are all about science and helping people, whereas the chinese one is propaganda for a brutal dictatorship.

William Graham · « **Reply #9 on:** 05/04/2007 09:56 pm »

I think it will be close between a private American company, and the Indian government.

Celeritas · « **Reply #10 on:** 05/05/2007 03:34 am »

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GW_Simulations - 4/5/2007 4:56 PM

I think it will be close between a private American company, and the Indian government.

My thoughts exactly. The poll seems to show that as well, with an edge going to private enterprise.

mianbentley · « **Reply #11 on:** 05/05/2007 03:47 am »

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

Christine · « **Reply #12 on:** 05/05/2007 10:12 am »

For Iran, I doubt getting the cargo back alive would be seen as a massive priority. If they can use a captured british soldier this simplifies the problem immensely.

simonbp · « **Reply #13 on:** 05/06/2007 01:23 am »

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mianbentley - 4/5/2007 10:47 PM

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

There's a bit of a difference between a Scud and manned spacecraft; like the difference between a rowboat and an aircraft carrier...

Simon

kevin-rf · « **Reply #14 on:** 05/07/2007 03:45 pm »

Both a rowboat and an aircraft carrier float in water. Both a scud and a manned spacecraft reach space. Just most manned spacecraft (except the X-15, mercury-redstone, and SS-1) go into orbit

I don't see the irianians sending anyone up on a "scud on steriods".

MKremer · « **Reply #15 on:** 05/08/2007 04:27 am »

Just because someone can shoot whatever mass into earth orbit (and a stable, controllable orbit, mind you) doesn't automatically mean they also have the ability/technology/hardware to safely recover that mass or at least its cargo at the Earth's surface (ground or water) and that their reentry technology/process is safe for living organisms (especially human ones), and that they can do that when and where they want to.

National space programs (U.S./Russia/China) do it/have done it, but so far no other national program has successfully launched or recovered an air breathing living, intellegent (or even semi-intellegent) biological entity, regardless of what their space program PR is trumpeting or 'promising'.

hop · « **Reply #16 on:** 05/08/2007 10:12 am »

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mianbentley - 4/5/2007 8:47 PM

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

Countries with advanced missile programs like Iran, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea are all possible longshot contenders, but they are far behind the frontrunners, and have few plausible motives for investing the required resources. Only Israel has launched satellites at all, and none have rockets with anywhere near the required payload. All have other very pressing concerns and severe limits on their resources.

IMO, India is the most likely candidate for a government program. They already have capable launch vehicles, multiple successful satellites on orbit, and one successful re-entry. They also have political motivation to demonstrate that they are a technically advanced nation, and a desire to show parity with China. Europe and Japan obviously have the technical capabilities and resources, but it's hard to see either suddenly deciding that manned flight is a national priority.

I'd give a private US venture 50/50 odds with India. Which one comes first depends on how the funding works out and how many stumbling blocks each one hits. While private ventures in other countries could theoretically have the same capabilities, I don't know of any credible ones actually working on manned orbital flight, so it would be surprising to see them get there first.

whitewatcher · « **Reply #17 on:** 05/08/2007 11:31 am »

Sojus is going to lift off from Kourou. I've heard the launch complex is designed to support manned spaceflights with minor modifications/additions.
CSTS (former ACTS) is a current ESA project; first concept is expected for June 2007. I guess they will build the updated Sojus Capsule together. Seems that the door ist kept open, but no step taken yet.

Indian launchers are quite advanced but not yet safe enough (GSLV with 50% failure rate). Keep in mind that chinese shenzhou developement took 11 years (1992-2003). But maybe they'll use different safety standards ...... they won't run out of people to blow up. ;-)

Israel? Their Shavit-2 can put only 550kg into a LEO. No candidate.

Malaysia first needs a launcher before thinking about a MSP. Reentry technology?

Private Company approach: Either SpaceX or Spacedev.

hop · « **Reply #18 on:** 05/08/2007 10:16 pm »

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whitewatcher - 8/5/2007 4:31 AM
Indian launchers are quite advanced but not yet safe enough (GSLV with 50% failure rate). Keep in mind that chinese shenzhou developement took 11 years (1992-2003). But maybe they'll use different safety standards ...... they won't run out of people to blow up. ;-)

Their record isn't significantly worse than the US and Soviet boosters which supported their first manned flights. Whether this is acceptable to India is of course an open question. Shenzhou development was quite slow, likely both to save budget and because the resulting spacecraft was much more capable than other nations first efforts. That said, I'd expect India to go slow as well, for much the same reasons.

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Israel? Their Shavit-2 can put only 550kg into a LEO. No candidate.

I wasn't suggesting launching a manned Shavit-2 (or roughly equivalent boosters from Iran etc.), just noting that nations which have developed spacecraft and/or IRBMs are significantly further down the road than those who have not. Malaysia comes to mind.

stanmarsh · « **Reply #19 on:** 10/22/2008 10:00 am »

I think with the success of SRE and planned SRE2 in the near future, india is closest (compared to private/malasia, etc.) to putting man in space. ESA has no/low motivation to send a man in space for now, so my bet is on India.

stanmarsh · « **Reply #20 on:** 10/22/2008 10:24 am »

Good article on recent and impending moon missions. Link: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3627746.cms

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India launched its first unmanned lunar mission on Wednesday joining China, Japan and the United States in a renewed race to explore the moon.

Europe's first lunar orbiter, SMART-1, completed its mission in 2006. Here are some planned future lunar missions:

* India's Chandrayaan-1 (moon vehicle) spacecraft which blasted off from a southern spaceport will map a three-dimensional atlas of the moon, and the surface's chemical and mineral composition. India plans to send an astronaut into space by 2014, and a manned mission to the moon by 2020.

* China launched its first moon orbiter in October last year to scan the lunar surface in preparation for an unmanned moon vehicle planned for 2012. Chang'e 1, named after a legendary Chinese goddess who flew to moon, has since sent back images from the lunar surface. Last month China launched its third manned space mission capping with the country's first space walk.

* Japan launched a lunar probe on September 14 last year nearly four years behind schedule. The mission, nicknamed Kaguya after a moon princess in a Japanese folktale, consisted of a main orbiter and two baby satellites equipped with 14 observation instruments designed to examine surface terrain, gravity and other lunar features for clues on the origin and evolution of the moon. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) hopes to send astronauts to the moon by 2025, although Japan has not yet attempted manned space flights

*The US space agency, NASA, plans to build a permanently occupied base on the moon, most likely at the lunar south pole, which will serve as a science outpost as well as a testbed for technology needed for future travel to Mars. The construction will follow a series of flights to the moon scheduled to begin by 2020. It also plans to provide a communications system linking Earth and the moon.

* Britain could send its first unmanned mission to the moon by 2010 to study the lunar surface and find the best site for humans to inhabit, the BBC reported last year, citing a report by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd, a top British space company The idea would be to launch two forays to the moon. The first, named "Moonlight", would fire four darts the size of suitcases onto the moon's surface from orbit to test for quakes, tremors and other data. If the mission is successful, a second probe, "Moonraker", would be launched with the aim of landing on the moon

* The Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) of Russia is also planning human space missions that will include flights to the moon, Russia's Interfax agency has reported. Russia has a long-range programme to develop space industry including manned moon flights by 2025, and a permanent station on the moon's surface in 2028-2032, Anatoly Perminov, head of the space agency, said.

PRIVATE SECTOR:

Web search firm Google Inc. is sponsoring a $30m competition for an unmanned, privately funded lunar landing. First prize is $20m for a group that can land a lunar rover -- an unmanned robotic probe -- on the moon, take it on a 500 metre (1,640 ft) trek and broadcast video back to Earth by December 31, 2012. The prize falls to $15m if the landing takes place by December 31, 2014. A second-place winner will receive $5m, and there are other prizes for milestones such as finding relics from previous landings and detecting water ice.

**************

faustod · « **Reply #21 on:** 10/22/2008 04:56 pm »

I think India is in pole position.

brihath · « **Reply #22 on:** 10/22/2008 05:18 pm »

I believe it is a toss up between Europe and India.

Europe was the fourth nation to independently orbit a human rated vehicle with the ATV, alshough it is not reentry capable. India has launch vehicle capability but has not yet flown a human rated vehicle.

It depends on who has the financial wherewithal and will to build a human rated spacecraft that can orbit and return. I think Europe has a head start with Ariane V/ATV. They just have to go the next step by developing a reentry vehicle. The lengthy flight experience of Ariane V bodes well for man-rating it, and it was always intended to be man-rated for Hermes.

I think India has farther to go, but the Indians are quick studies on anything they apply themselves to. Still, I think the edge goes to Europe at the moment.

Any other nations have more developmental work to do and aren't in the running right now.

stockman · « **Reply #23 on:** 10/22/2008 05:35 pm »

Quote from: brihath on 10/22/2008 05:18 pm

I believe it is a toss up between Europe and India.

Europe was the fourth nation to independently orbit a human rated vehicle with the ATV, alshough it is not reentry capable. India has launch vehicle capability but has not yet flown a human rated vehicle.

It depends on who has the financial wherewithal and will to build a human rated spacecraft that can orbit and return. I think Europe has a head start with Ariane V/ATV. They just have to go the next step by developing a reentry vehicle. The lengthy flight experience of Ariane V bodes well for man-rating it, and it was always intended to be man-rated for Hermes.

I think India has farther to go, but the Indians are quick studies on anything they apply themselves to. Still, I think the edge goes to Europe at the moment.

Any other nations have more developmental work to do and aren't in the running right now.

Fundamentally I agree with you here however - just one small nit - Europe is not a nation - its a continent - I don't see any individual european Nation ever doing this on their own...

hesidu · « **Reply #24 on:** 10/23/2008 06:33 am »

People are talking about space race between China and USA. I think it's baseless. But if India put a man on the space, that will definitely trigger a space race in Asia. As a space fan, i would like to see a space race.

hop · « **Reply #25 on:** 10/23/2008 10:42 pm »

Quote from: hesidu on 10/23/2008 06:33 am

People are talking about space race between China and USA. I think it's baseless. But if India put a man on the space, that will definitely trigger a space race in Asia. As a space fan, i would like to see a space race.

A space race to me implies dumping buckets of money into unsustainable propaganda efforts. This strikes me as counterproductive to the goal of becoming a truly spacefaring species.

I do revise my earlier prediction however. With the success of the ATV and fairly serious talk of an crewed variant, they could easily be next. India and private industry are still the other leading contenders.

ChrisGebhardt · « **Reply #26 on:** 10/24/2008 02:06 am »

DOUBLE NIT: It's "WHO will be the next nation in space?" not "What will be the next nation in space?"

And when are options going to be added to this poll for us to vote on?

mr.columbus · « **Reply #27 on:** 10/24/2008 08:16 am »

Quote from: faustod on 10/22/2008 04:56 pm

I think India is in pole position.

I concur. Europe is not going for an own human-rated vehicle any time soon. Nor is Japan. The only other nation with the capabilities and actual plans is India. It may take until 2016, 2018 or even 2020+, but the next country orbiting an astronaut in a spacecraft developed in that particular country will be India.

johnxx9 · « **Reply #28 on:** 12/05/2008 03:51 pm »

India has completed the primary designing of its space vehicle called the "Orbital Vehicle"! Here is the official design.

It will be 4-ton cone shaped vehicle with a capability to launch 3 people into 400 km LEO ! The design is finalized and waiting approval and will gt it by the begining of next year! India will launch 2 more SREs before the mission in 2014-15!

isro-watch · « **Reply #29 on:** 12/17/2008 10:23 am »

i would like to add that the necessary infrastructure here at sriharikota is also being upgraded for a manned space flight...

systems like emergency exit at the last minute for the crew...etc...were being talked off...with funds released for this...the structures may sprang up soon...

but i still give private US companies a better chance at launching as they can dedicate themselves to such launches unlike ISRO...furthermore ISRO may launch it atleast a few years late than claimed in press just like its other launches.

60/40....US companies/ISRO

quickshot89 · « **Reply #30 on:** 12/17/2008 03:52 pm »

Quote from: stockman on 10/22/2008 05:35 pm

Fundamentally I agree with you here however - just one small nit - Europe is not a nation - its a continent - I don't see any individual european Nation ever doing this on their own...

the USA gets away with it

why cant europe

id say europe getting an ATV man rated within the next 5-10 years or so, they have the booster, and the service module, just need the re-entry system worked out

bad_astra · « **Reply #31 on:** 12/17/2008 05:26 pm »

Europe has a lot of reentry work already done, via ARD. I still think India will beat them to it, if Europe ever tries at all.

aquarius · « **Reply #32 on:** 12/24/2008 12:42 pm »

The way things look right now, India should be the next one. Although, I think, their 2015 date is unrealistic.

As for Europe, they´ll probably be conducting feasibility studies in the next few decades.

Vahe231991 · « **Reply #33 on:** 06/24/2022 03:14 am »

Quote from: mianbentley on 05/05/2007 03:47 am

May I be so bold as to suggest the country of Iran next, because they already have missiles that can travel 5000km, the Shehab-5 I believe its called. Clearly the intention to put satellites into orbit is there, but human cargo? Worth a thought.

It may be tempting for me not to post on this thread because it over ten years old, but given the scope of this question, I should emphasize that Iran and the two Koreas are now the most recent countries to use indigenous SLVs to put satellites into orbit. Judging indications in news stories pertaining to Indian space exploration are that India will be the next nation to send a man into space with the Gaganyaan spacecraft.