SpaceX's new product/department: Starshield

[meekGee]

This may have huge implications for SpaceX's DoD business: Trump just issued an executive order to revive SDI/Star Wars.
...
This is brilliant pebbles, which as have been pointed out many times on X, is now entirely doable as proven by Starlink.

Ugh.

I've always maintained that the Kessler syndrome can be avoided, but that's assuming nobody is intentionally going to cause it.

If I were a peer nation that's incapable of competing with it but is volnerable to it, it'd be a red line for me, and it's super easy to defeat in advance with "dumbass pebbles".

Except dumbass pebbles, they're not a targeted weapon. They basically take out spherical shells (less some polar donut holes)

[envy887]

This may have huge implications for SpaceX's DoD business: Trump just issued an executive order to revive SDI/Star Wars. A bit confusingly he called it The Iron Dome For America, but if you read the order it's basically an anti-ICBM shield, aimed at not just to defeat missiles from "rogue nations", but from "peer, near-peer" adversaries as well. It's going to have strong space components such as:

Sec. 3.  Implementation.  Within 60 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of Defense shall:
     (a)  Submit to the President a reference architecture, capabilities-based requirements, and an implementation plan for the next-generation missile defense shield.  The architecture shall include, at a minimum, plans for:
...
(iii)   Development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors capable of boost-phase intercept; 
...

This is brilliant pebbles, which as have been pointed out many times on X, is now entirely doable as proven by Starlink.

Ugh.

I've always maintained that the Kessler syndrome can be avoided, but that's assuming nobody is intentionally going to cause it.

If I were a peer nation that's incapable of competing with it but is volnerable to it, it'd be a red line for me, and it's super easy to defeat in advance with "dumbass pebbles".

Except dumbass pebbles, they're not a targeted weapon. They basically take out spherical shells (less some polar donut holes)

It's not at all clear that area denial in orbit is any easier than "proliferated interceptors". The effectiveness of the denial is proportional to the density of the impactors: mass throughout the available volume. As the available volume is huge this requires enormous amounts of mass, thousands of tons at minimum and probably more like tens of thousands of tons to be effective on a useful time scale. That means it requires highly advanced launch systems, or a enormous effort to scale out existing launch technology. And at Starlink altitudes the launch requirements are compounded by the fact that drag clears the impactors out of orbit in a few years, so the continuous launching of huge amounts of mass is required.

I did a BOTE a while back on what it would take to deny LEO to large targets (e.g. Keyhole), and it showed a requirement of roughly 7500 tonnes in LEO just to reduce the mean operational lifetime to 2 years. And that was without considering any shielding on the target satellites, which can quickly increase the impactor mass requirement by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude.

[meekGee]

It's not at all clear that area denial in orbit is any easier than "proliferated interceptors". The effectiveness of the denial is proportional to the density of the impactors: mass throughout the available volume. As the available volume is huge this requires enormous amounts of mass, thousands of tons at minimum and probably more like tens of thousands of tons to be effective on a useful time scale. That means it requires highly advanced launch systems, or a enormous effort to scale out existing launch technology. And at Starlink altitudes the launch requirements are compounded by the fact that drag clears the impactors out of orbit in a few years, so the continuous launching of huge amounts of mass is required.

I did a BOTE a while back on what it would take to deny LEO to large targets (e.g. Keyhole), and it showed a requirement of roughly 7500 tonnes in LEO just to reduce the mean operational lifetime to 2 years. And that was without considering any shielding on the target satellites, which can quickly increase the impactor mass requirement by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude.

How heavy were your pebbles?

Keep in mind, while it's likely that the brilliant carriers will be shielded, the Starlinks won't be, and my concern is them, not them.

--

It's a dumbass escalation that will result in (surprise) counter escalation, and there are a million ways to escalate which the pebbles are useless against.

I truly hope he's just headlining.

[ZachF]

This morning, the Washington Post has an overview article of the military implications of SpaceX's lead.  Starlink/Starshield, Starship, and rocket cargo all discussed.  The lead over China is guessed to be ~10 years.  The article plays it straight.

Elon Musk’s Martian dreams are a boon to the U.S. military
Defense experts say SpaceX has leapfrogged global rivals and could help the United States deter -- or win -- a war against China.

Amused observers have long dismissed Elon Musk’s dream to colonize Mars as unserious science fiction. But in his pursuit of the Red Planet, Musk has managed to build a deadly serious business with vast military consequences.
Security experts say SpaceX has leapfrogged so far ahead in several critical technologies that it could deter major rivals like China from engaging in a war with the United States — or tip the balance if one breaks out. Others worry that it could provoke an untimely response.

Access through an archive site if you don't have a subscription to WaPo.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/12/07/musk-mars-technology-us-national-security/

I've been saying this for a while.

Starship at $50/kg to LEO gives DoD a *million tonne* yearly budget to space with 5% of their budget. You're way beyond brilliant pebbles here...

[thespacecow]

Keep in mind, while it's likely that the brilliant carriers will be shielded, the Starlinks won't be, and my concern is them, not them.

Starlink satellites already have shields around critical areas. As satellites get bigger, the cost for losing one to MMOD increases, and the cost for adding shield decreases due to lower launch cost, so I think future satellites will get even better protection.

Besides, Russia and China are already planning to attack Starlink before this announcement, so I don't think this put Starlink in more danger than it is already in.

It's a dumbass escalation that will result in (surprise) counter escalation, and there are a million ways to escalate which the pebbles are useless against.

I'm pretty sure China is already thinking about this, this is one of the most obvious military use case for reusable launch, I mean it's literally what DC-X was originally designed for. If US doesn't do this it'll just be left behind, like in hypersonic where it naively think just because US doesn't weaponize it, nobody else will, that was a big mistake.

[meekGee]

Keep in mind, while it's likely that the brilliant carriers will be shielded, the Starlinks won't be, and my concern is them, not them.

Starlink satellites already have shields around critical areas. As satellites get bigger, the cost for losing one to MMOD increases, and the cost for adding shield decreases due to lower launch cost, so I think future satellites will get even better protection.

Besides, Russia and China are already planning to attack Starlink before this announcement, so I don't think this put Starlink in more danger than it is already in.

It's a dumbass escalation that will result in (surprise) counter escalation, and there are a million ways to escalate which the pebbles are useless against.

I'm pretty sure China is already thinking about this, this is one of the most obvious military use case for reusable launch, I mean it's literally what DC-X was originally designed for. If US doesn't do this it'll just be left behind, like in hypersonic where it naively think just because US doesn't weaponize it, nobody else will, that was a big mistake.

Thinking about it, of course they should, they'd be fools not to.

And we should think about and even develop capabilities as well.  We shouldn't be fools either.  But smart arms development is done in secret.

OTOH, deploying and cornering them into a situation where preemption is the only way to stop what will become an existential threat is dumb.

Nobody can take down something like BP in real-time.  Dumb pebbles take months to work. They're a statistical undiscriminating weapon.

Shielding is prohibitive when you're only concerned about MMODs. The impact velocities are immense, and shields just become more fragments, and help impart even more spin on the target. It's a very unshieldable situation.

[StraumliBlight]

SpaceNews

Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) introduced the “Iron Dome Act” on Feb. 6, proposing $19.5 billion in funding for fiscal year 2026 to implement Trump’s recent executive order dubbed “Iron Dome for America.” The legislation includes $960 million for space-based technologies.

[novo2044]

SpaceNews

Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) introduced the “Iron Dome Act” on Feb. 6, proposing $19.5 billion in funding for fiscal year 2026 to implement Trump’s recent executive order dubbed “Iron Dome for America.” The legislation includes $960 million for space-based technologies.

I get why they called it Iron Dome.  I really do.

But this has basically nothing in common with Iron Dome other than being vaguely missile defense.  This has its roots in Star Wars and honestly, is not totally insane.  Real time tracking of every missile launch on earth, as well as having some sort of interceptors in orbit, seems within current or near future technology for a reasonable (heh) cost

[RedLineTrain]

Iron Dome is a better name than Star Wars if only because of the baggage of the Star Wars name.

I'm more interested in the 19:1 split between land and space.  Would imagine a much higher space share in a successful product.

[phantomdj]

In the nearly two years since Starshield was first announced, it has become the No. 2 revenue contributor within Starlink.

"Nearly a quarter of the entire business -- $2 billion in estimated revenue -- now comes from Starshield and related services. And at the rate Starshield is growing, Starlink's military sideline business could well become the biggest part of Starlink."

https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/02/10/its-official-starlink-is-spacexs-biggest-money-mak/

https://payloadspace.com/estimating-spacexs-2024-revenue/

[thespacecow]

Military-Tech Startups Vie for Billions as Hegseth Shakes Up Pentagon Spending

In one case, Pentagon officials are reviewing an outside proposal to build a defense system using technology from Anduril, Palantir and Elon Musk’s SpaceX, according to people familiar with the matter. The plan is a response to President Trump’s January executive order to develop a next-generation missile defense shield that the administration called the Iron Dome for America, an effort since renamed the “Golden Dome.”

The defense-tech sector’s missile-defense pitch is one of a few options the Defense Department could pursue to meet the president’s requirements, which include a satellite network and space-based interceptors. The executive order requires the Pentagon to submit an implementation plan for the missile shield by late March.

[Kiwi53]

All the Starshield launches to date appear to have been to a 70° inclination orbit. This gives good ground, sea and air coverage to almost all the places where combat operations seem likely to occur, the only gap would be in the north polar region.
Are there known plans to launch Starshield into polar (say 87° to 93° inclination) orbits? Even one Falcon load of 20+ satellites would give intermittent coverage, and two launches should give pretty continuous coverage

[zubenelgenubi]

Article published for the launch of NROL-192.
SFN SpaceX launches Starshield satellites for the NRO on Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg
April 12, Will Robinson-Smith

...NRO Director Chris Scolese called this week “the world’s most capable, resilient, and technologically advanced satellite constellation.”
<snip>
The constellation is made up of what are believed to be Starshield satellites, a government variant of SpaceX’s Starlink. In a video statement shared on April 8, Scolese described the May 2024 launch of the NROL-146 mission as “setting a new standard for data collection, speed, and responsiveness.”

“This enhanced constellation is already shortening revisit times and increasing observational persistence; delivering enhanced coordination; and empowering faster data processing, fusion, and transmission speeds. All with greater resilience and security,” Scolese said.

“Most profoundly, we’re making it harder for our adversaries to hide, while reducing time to insights for our customers from minutes to seconds – strengthening national security with improved prospects for lethality, when it’s necessary.”

Without going into firm specifics, Scolese said that across the past eight missions supporting this constellation, SpaceX launched more than 150 satellites on behalf of the NRO.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

I note B1063, B1071, and B1088 were used for 8 of the nine previous NRO Future Proliferated Architecture launches. 📝

[zubenelgenubi]

Splinter discussion split/moved here:
SpaceX and Golden Dome in Space Policy

[AndrewM]

Looks like another Starshield application/division. It's a good article and I pulled a few quotes from it.

https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/space-force-is-contracting-with-spacex-for-new-secretive-milnet-satcom-network/ [June 18]

The Space Force in contracting with SpaceX for a new government-owned, contractor-operated satellite communication constellation in low Earth orbit (LEO), called MILNET, that eventually will be integrated into the service’s grand plan for a “hybrid mesh network” combining commercial and Defense Department satellites, a senior Space Force official revealed today.

MILNET, which has rarely been discussed publicly until now, comprises “480-plus” satellites, Weisler said, that will be operated by SpaceX

The network will use terminals created by SpaceX for its Starshield satellites being configured for military use, which also can link into SpaceX’s commercial Starlink constellation. The Starshield terminals have more encryption than those sold to consumers for Starlink access, he explained.