Isn't the delay in announcing launch contracts a bit weird? I recall SDA wanting to get some of the launches for their constellation to be launched by the end of 2022 - which seems very unlikely to happen that quickly after the launch award.
Per this week's "Rocket Report" from Ars Technica: "Col. Douglas Pentecost, Space Systems Command deputy director of launch enterprise, told the publication that ULA’s task orders for the five missions are worth $566 million, and SpaceX’s orders for three missions are worth $280 million."
Quote from: Mdmurphy12 on 06/03/2022 04:28 pmPer this week's "Rocket Report" from Ars Technica: "Col. Douglas Pentecost, Space Systems Command deputy director of launch enterprise, told the publication that ULA’s task orders for the five missions are worth $566 million, and SpaceX’s orders for three missions are worth $280 million." That works out to $113.M each for ULA and $93.3M each for SpaceX.
Space Force assigned 12 missions to SpaceX and United Launch Alliance, under the previously awarded NSSL Phase 2 contract:
Each company got 6 mission assignments:SpaceX— USSF-31— T1TL-B— T1TL-C— T1TL-D— T1TL-E— T1TR-CULA— NROL-64— NROL-83— GPS-III-08— T1TR-B— T1TR-D— USSF-114
SpaceX's assignments specify Falcon 9, except for USSF-31.All of ULA's are for Vulcan.
<snip>The fact that Vulcan Centaur is late, hasn't had its first launch, and is not yet certified for NSSL Phase 2 missions doesn't seem to have had an impact on the missions assigned to the Vulcan Centaur so far.
Quote from: mandrewa on 06/08/2023 09:33 pm<snip>The fact that Vulcan Centaur is late, hasn't had its first launch, and is not yet certified for NSSL Phase 2 missions doesn't seem to have had an impact on the missions assigned to the Vulcan Centaur so far.Missions probably can be reassigned to SpaceX if the Vulcan Centaur gets too far behind in the launch schedule. Kinda like what happen to Arianespace when the Ariane 6 was running late. The USSF knows that SpaceX have the launch capacity to pick the slack if necessary.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 06/09/2023 02:32 pmQuote from: mandrewa on 06/08/2023 09:33 pm<snip>The fact that Vulcan Centaur is late, hasn't had its first launch, and is not yet certified for NSSL Phase 2 missions doesn't seem to have had an impact on the missions assigned to the Vulcan Centaur so far.Missions probably can be reassigned to SpaceX if the Vulcan Centaur gets too far behind in the launch schedule. Kinda like what happen to Arianespace when the Ariane 6 was running late. The USSF knows that SpaceX have the launch capacity to pick the slack if necessary.I don't think the DOD or any other ULA customers are too worried about Vulcan working eventually. It's painfully late but it's nearly here and ULA will get it working.Its when not if.How long Vulcan's shelf life is before it can't win contracts due to other reuseable vehicles, who knows. Probably safe for at least 5 years.
ULA has too many friends. Too big to fail.
If SpaceX continues to increase its cadence at the current rate of about 30/yr, they will reach 120/yr in 2024 and effectively saturate the current capacity of the Eastern Range. At that point, launch slots become the constraint. I'm not sure how the range will allocate slots, but if it were pure economics, the slots would go to either the most capable LVs or to the cheapest LVs.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 06/09/2023 03:10 pmIf SpaceX continues to increase its cadence at the current rate of about 30/yr, they will reach 120/yr in 2024 and effectively saturate the current capacity of the Eastern Range. At that point, launch slots become the constraint. I'm not sure how the range will allocate slots, but if it were pure economics, the slots would go to either the most capable LVs or to the cheapest LVs.No, it is first come, first serve.
Quote from: Jim on 06/09/2023 06:28 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 06/09/2023 03:10 pmIf SpaceX continues to increase its cadence at the current rate of about 30/yr, they will reach 120/yr in 2024 and effectively saturate the current capacity of the Eastern Range. At that point, launch slots become the constraint. I'm not sure how the range will allocate slots, but if it were pure economics, the slots would go to either the most capable LVs or to the cheapest LVs.No, it is first come, first serve.I can see the (major) launch customer being a factor in allocating slots. For instance, a vehicle launching a DoD or NRO 'National Security' payload could conceivably bump a SpaceX Starlink launch originally scheduled for that slot. Other US government agencies might have the same priority for their payloads.