On two occasions (1983-86 and 1990-96) R-7 based launchers recorded 133 consecutive mission successes.
Eric counting IFA really doesn't change much because the previous record was at 100 so 111 or 112 doesn't matter.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 02/04/2022 03:47 pmQuote from: Chinakpradhan on 02/04/2022 02:14 pmDon't know why Elon is supporting Eric Berger's tweet when it is proved wrong here.It all depends on one's criteria. Main problem with Berger's number is that it includes a suborbital launch. If we're going to include suborbital success strings we're going to have to compare against Minuteman, Polaris, etc., and those ran far beyond this number. AMOS 6 was obviously a failed launch campaign, but it was not a launch. Etc. - Ed KyleIt says"The Falcon 9 rocket has now flown more consecutive successful missions, 111, than any orbital rocket in history."If it said 111 consecutive successful orbital flights that would be wrong, but the case of a deliberate suborbital flight by a rocket that has reached orbit many times being successful is clearly 'a successful mission by an orbital class rocket'. It also seems right to regard the AMOS 6 *mission* as a failure - the payload was destroyed. While there wasn't a flight, there was an unsuccessful mission.So it seems to me to be entirely accurate and also devoid of any hint of deceitful slight of hand that would be present in a claim of 121 consecutive successful flights. It is the right thing to do to reduce 121 to 112 and the wording is clear and accurate.
Quote from: Chinakpradhan on 02/04/2022 02:14 pmDon't know why Elon is supporting Eric Berger's tweet when it is proved wrong here.It all depends on one's criteria. Main problem with Berger's number is that it includes a suborbital launch. If we're going to include suborbital success strings we're going to have to compare against Minuteman, Polaris, etc., and those ran far beyond this number. AMOS 6 was obviously a failed launch campaign, but it was not a launch. Etc. - Ed Kyle
Don't know why Elon is supporting Eric Berger's tweet when it is proved wrong here.
Quote from: crandles57 on 02/04/2022 05:13 pmQuote from: edkyle99 on 02/04/2022 03:47 pmQuote from: Chinakpradhan on 02/04/2022 02:14 pmDon't know why Elon is supporting Eric Berger's tweet when it is proved wrong here.It all depends on one's criteria. Main problem with Berger's number is that it includes a suborbital launch. If we're going to include suborbital success strings we're going to have to compare against Minuteman, Polaris, etc., and those ran far beyond this number. AMOS 6 was obviously a failed launch campaign, but it was not a launch. Etc. - Ed KyleIt says"The Falcon 9 rocket has now flown more consecutive successful missions, 111, than any orbital rocket in history."If it said 111 consecutive successful orbital flights that would be wrong, but the case of a deliberate suborbital flight by a rocket that has reached orbit many times being successful is clearly 'a successful mission by an orbital class rocket'. It also seems right to regard the AMOS 6 *mission* as a failure - the payload was destroyed. While there wasn't a flight, there was an unsuccessful mission.So it seems to me to be entirely accurate and also devoid of any hint of deceitful slight of hand that would be present in a claim of 121 consecutive successful flights. It is the right thing to do to reduce 121 to 112 and the wording is clear and accurate. Amos 6 was not lost during a launch attempt. Amos 6 was lost because they were experimenting with a very rapid LOX load. And they wouldn't have used that very rapid LOX load in the launch procedure they had already established for the Falcon 9 FT.But who knows, maybe if that very rapid LOX load had worked during that static fire, and they obviously had every expectation it was going to work, they would have eventually used it on an actual launch attempt.Now whether or not a person thinks Amos 6 should have counted as a launch failure depends on what they are trying to do. Ed Kyle has been keeping statistics on rockets launches for many years. And he already had a definition long predating Amos 6 for what constituted a success and failure. And by that definition Amos 6 was not an attempted launch and therefore shouldn't count.I don't think it should be counted as a launch failure. But then my perspective is that I'm trying to figure out the inherent reliability of the rocket and I'm not sure how relevant this failed experimental expansion of the envelope for the Falcon is to that. But if I were looking at it from the perspective of a company looking to hire SpaceX to launch my payload into orbit, I would definitely count it as a failure!But now if I were SpaceX I wouldn't try to argue this. It's just not worth it. There are too many people around like you, crandles57, who would think it would be deceptive to not count Amos 6 or Alexphysics who seems to be saying that it's a math error if someone doesn't count Amos 6 as a failed launch attempt.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 02/03/2022 07:18 pmOn two occasions (1983-86 and 1990-96) R-7 based launchers recorded 133 consecutive mission successes.Quote from: Alexphysics on 02/04/2022 04:53 pmEric counting IFA really doesn't change much because the previous record was at 100 so 111 or 112 doesn't matter.This is the part that's causing some confusion, AIUI.Eric Berger's article counts individual Soyuz versions, and the longest streak on any individual version is 100 with Soyuz-U (unless you consider Cosmos 2243 as a success, in which case the streak is 112). However, if you count the R-7 family as a whole, the streak is 133, including Soyuz-U, Soyuz-U2, Molniya-M, and Vostok-2M rockets.This is where the "family" definitions become problematic. Falcon 9 also has "variants": v1.0, v1.1, v1.2 ("Full Thrust" or FT), Block 4, Block 5 (and of course Falcon Heavy of various versions), and the 112 success streak cited in the article includes FT, Block 4, and Block 5 (and Falcon Heavy versions thereof) since AMOS-6.I don't think it's too contentious to say that if Falcon Heavy is included, the R-7 family as a whole should be included, since FH and F9 are significantly different stage layouts. What makes this more difficult is if you don't include Falcon Heavy - then F9's streak becomes 109, and the question then becomes whether the different F9 variants are as significant as the R-7 variants.The difference between an F9 FT and an F9 B5 is clearly less than the difference between an R-7 ICBM and a Soyuz-2 (and let's not even start with Soyuz-2.1v). But it's probably more significant than the difference between a Soyuz-U and Soyuz-FG. Soyuz-U and Soyuz-U2 differed almost only by propellant - but propellant choice is one of the core features of a rocket design, so are they very similar or very different? The Molniya series had improved thrust off the pad, but also a different final stage - but is that stage difference on the same level as having two extra cores?"The R-7 Family" has existed for so long, and covered so many vehicles (some with 17% success rates and some with 97% success rates), that it is no longer a useful delineation for the purposes of such discussion. However, since "variants" or "versions" are designated by the launch provider, they're also not useful for comparisons, since the manner in which they're assigned differs from provider to provider. All variants are different, but not all by the same amount - and even rockets within the same variant can have significant differences.In a class I took on computer modeling, the professor retold a story about a king who wanted an accurate map of his lands. The cartographers made many maps, but each time they ended up missing some of the details the king found most important. In the end, he was finally satisfied with a map the size of the kingdom itself - though for some reason it never got used. In the end, all launchers have only a 0% or 100% success rate - but that's not exactly a useful point of comparison, is it.I just can't wait until the end of the year, when - all going well - this whole debate will be moot.
What thread can we place the launch record discussion? This is kinda deviating from the Starlink mission topic.
Quote from: ZachS09 on 02/04/2022 06:34 pmWhat thread can we place the launch record discussion? This is kinda deviating from the Starlink mission topic.I don't see a suitable thread in this section or in the general section, how about a new thread in the SpaceX General Section?
Any news on ASOG return?
Quote from: edkyle99 on 02/05/2022 03:07 pmAny news on ASOG return?Nothing encouraging! B1061 already sliding around minutes after touchdown was not a great omen 😬 https://twitter.com/CowboyDanPaasch/status/1490234049478238208