Manned flight to Mars

[colbourne]

Who do we reckon will be the first country to land a man on Mars.

Probably will not happen for many years but by then China or India might be willing to take the risk to show the rest of the world their progress.

I expect the USA government if it sticks with its current plans will land on the Moon again by 2018 , set up a base there, and then plan a future assault on Mars , landing a man there by 2025.

It is possible that it will not be a government backed mission atall , but a privately financed mission by some brave explorers, possibly using Russian technology.

It may not be a return trip even. It could be designed from the start as a colony.

 :cool:

[kevin-rf]

I would suspect it would be the US (most dolars flowing into a manned program and the required heavy lift in development), but would not count out china (and economy that could most afford it and a very strong national drive behind it).

I would count out Russia, they can barely afford what they are currently flying.
I do not think there is the will inside of ESA.
(Maybe if they teamed with russia, but I would put them as the long shot.)
I think the Indian and Japanese programs are to small.

Hell, I would volunteer for a one way colonization trip. Sadly my 5Km run with the dog each night does not put me in the 'good enough shape' to actually fly the mission.

Can't wait to see how this thread develops.

[02hurnella]

Multinational probably. Due to massive cost and large variety of skills needed. I doubt you would set up a colony, few would go and we don't yet have the experience. Frankly we probably won't get there B4 2030 and the global economy might be totally different. The fact is spaceflight is dependent on money most of all and any number of things could cut any space agencies funds (such as war). I can't predict economics or geopolitics for the next five years and 25 is way beyond my imagination.   Imagine how this thread might have looked 25 years ago (well this train of thought there were few PC's),
hmmm
>
Soviet union, oooh yeah maybe (economy)
China- cultural revoloution still going on pretty unliekly really
ESA won't be founded for 3 years
India- won't launch till 1979
Japan didn't have a real independent capability till 1994.

So my point is this, you can't base predictions on25 years away on whats happening now. Its just not possible. 25 years ago there was only a credible  American and Soviet plan. Now countries like malaysia and Iran are developing LV's.

[hesidu]

As a chinese, I would say Chinese are not quite interested in these kind of exploration. I think the main reason for China to start the manned-space project is to make sure that China is not left bebind. You know that China was rejected in the ISS project.

[02hurnella]

Propaganda and the military, are the only reasons for the chinese space program. Nothing else. They were rejected from the ISS because they're a brutal "communist" dictatorship. Which doesn't quite fit in with democratic nations on the ISS (well in theory, russia was when the ISS was concieved).
>
China is going to the moon and cannot lose from it. If they get there first they will be "superior" to America, if they are a year or two behind then they have closed a gap. I imagine the same will motivate a race to mars really.

[MKremer]

02hurnella - 19/5/2007  1:40 PM

Propaganda and the military, are the only reasons for the chinese space program. Nothing else. They were rejected from the ISS because they're a brutal "communist" dictatorship. Which doesn't quite fit in with democratic nations on the ISS (well in theory, russia was when the ISS was concieved).

Have any background press or official documents to prove that opinion?

My understanding is that China wasn't in for ISS agreements because 1) their space program couldn't afford any hardware or even the research agreements costs with the budgets their program was allowed during that time (early/mid-90's); 2) all the Western nations involved with ISS didn't trust the Chinese gov't at the time the ISS agreements were negotiated and signed; 3) Russia would have balked at including the Chinese as major partners during the ISS agreements (and ISS needed Russia's contributions big time regardless of China).

China is going to the moon and cannot lose from it. If they get there first they will be "superior" to America, if they are a year or two behind then they have closed a gap. I imagine the same will motivate a race to mars really.

Sure they can lose from it - for them a lunar mission, even one like Apollo-8, would be a major project... if it goes wrong (aborts, serious delays), or fails completely with LOC, that would be a huge setback for their program, but more from the negative press that not only concentrates on the space disaster but on their space agency and the gov't behind it.
(China does *not* want to do something to cause major worldwide negative press, or a major gov't sponsored failure seen by the world, that makes the world press start to dig into and report on everything about their gov't because of a major space agency failure).

[Celeritas]

poll located here:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=7609&posts=17&start=1

[02hurnella]

From what I heard China wasn't allowed into the ISS because The US was uneasy with a dictatorship. Yes they can lose it with a disaster true. But my point is that if China is 5 years behind constellation that would be a victory for them. If they even get near the US it will look bad for NASA.

[oriolesfan61]

I could see ESA accomplishing this before the US. finally does If the Russians became involved in the mission then I think the chances of them getting there before USA are even more likely.