2025 SpaceX Starship Predictions & Theories

[JohnsterSpaceProgram]

Hello everyone! Since the Starship program has made a lot of progress in 2024 so far (such as the first successful ship re-entry, booster splashdown, booster catch, etc.), I've decided that this year, with less than 3 months to go before the start of the new year, that in the last few months of every year (at least for the next few years, it depends), I'm going to start doing these posts where I list all of my predictions and theories on what goals and milestones the Starship program might achieve in the following year (2025 in this case).

Without further ado, let's get started with the predictions and theories. Please note that because these are JUST predictions and theories, some of them could be (or likely will) end up being wrong to some extent, although there's also the potential some of these could end up being correct, although we'll just have to wait and see what happens during 2025.

2025 STARSHIP PREDICTIONS
DATE OF PREDICTIONS 1-8: 10/18/2024

#1 - Between 5-10 Starship flights throughout 2025 (Which, if Flight 6 flies before the end of 2024, would be Flights 7 to 11 at a minimum if there are 5 flights next year, or Flights 7 to 16 at a maximum if there are 10).

#2 - Starship upper stage ("Ship") and Super Heavy ("Booster") pairings for Flights 7 to 11: F7 - Booster 14 & Ship 33 (First Block 2 Ship) (B14-S33) / F8 - Booster 15 (Potentially The First Block 2 Booster) & Ship 34 (Second Block 2 Ship) (B15-S34) / F9 - Booster 16 & Ship 35 (B16-S35) / F10 - Booster 17 & Ship 36 (B17-S36) / F11 - Booster 18 & Ship 37 (B18-S37).

#3 - The NASA and SpaceX propellant transfer demo test between 2 Ship vehicles will likely occur with Ships in the S3X range (S36, 37, etc), potentially sometime around mid-2025.

#4 - The OLM for the second launch tower at the Starbase launch site might be fully operational and ready to support launches by early-mid 2025, probably closer to around the middle of that range.

#5 - The first full-scale HLS mockups (if Ship 26 is not going to be modified into one (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59511.msg2521833#msg2521833), which doesn't seem likely anymore) are likely to be constructed and tested at Starbase. And a covered object delivered in September of 2024 resembling the HLS airlock previously seen could be integrated into one of these mockups or HLS prototypes as part of testing the systems out for these vehicles.

#6 - The first fully orbital flight of the Starship program could possibly occur as early as Flight 7 with Ship 33 (as stated before, the first Block 2 Ship), if Flight 6 performs a successful in-space raptor relight, although that would only be if a test like that is planned as one of the objectives on that flight. If not with Ship 33 however, then Ship 34 on Flight 8 is a more likely candidate for the first fully orbital Ship to fly, since it already has some improvements (such as with it's weld lines and likely other parts of the vehicle) compared to the first Block 2 Ship, S33.

#7 - Given the recent successful Booster 12 catch, it's very likely that the first Ship catch attempt will occur sometime in 2025, probably in the second half of the year, although it could happen sooner than that, with a Block 2 Ship vehicle and either the catch tower at Pad A or B (see the first 2 theories in the theory section for more info regarding this possibility). It's also likely, given the recent success, that this Ship catch attempt will occur prior to or on Flight 10.

#8 - Before the end of 2025, the first Block 2 boosters (such as B15, which could potentially be one as stated earlier, although this is unconfirmed) will likely fly as well. These could potentially have 35 Raptor engines, and other upgrades compared to the Block 1 boosters that have flown and been either partially (B11) or fully (B12) recovered (or are planned to fly such as B13 & B14) as of October 2024.

2025 STARSHIP THEORIES
DATE OF THEORIES 1-4: 10/18/2024

#1 - The first tower catch attempts of the Ship might be done using the second launch tower (Pad B)'s Mechazilla chopstick arms at Starbase, since when they start attempting to do those, it's possible, if not likely, that the first tower (Pad A) will still not be at a point yet where it can catch a Ship soon after catching a Booster (such as within a few hours of a launch).

#2 - If they don't opt for trying to catch the Ship on the same flight that the Booster is caught on when they first try catching the Ship (which might be, as stated in the first theory, a Booster catch with Pad A's chopsticks, and a Ship catch with Pad B's chopsticks), they might just splashdown the Booster in the ocean instead for those early flights and only catch the Ship with Pad A's Mechazilla chopstick arms if Pad B's chopsticks aren't ready yet to support catching operations.

#3 - Given SpaceX has not scrapped it yet, Ship 26 could potentially end up being used to test fire Raptor 3 engines on a Starship vehicle ahead of Raptor 3 engines flying on Block 2 Ships such as S33 or S34, following work that would likely have to be performed on the flapless Ship's aft section to support Raptor 3 engine integration and testing. This could potentially also be part of the reason why it's Raptor 2 engines were removed a few months ago.

#4 - If the first Raptor 3 engines are not tested on Ship 26, then the first vehicles that are likely to receive them would be Ship 33 and/or 34, the first Block 2 Ships. This could also likely be because the prior Block 1 Ships (like S31, the last Block 1 Ship that is expected to fly on Flight 6) don't have the necessary upgrades or hardware Block 2 Ships have that would allow them to support Raptor 3 engine integration and usage.

That's all my predictions and theories that I have for now regarding Starship development in 2025, and if I come up with any more prior to the end of 2024, I'll probably add them to this post as well, although for now, I think this is a good amount.

If you have any predictions or theories of your own on what goals and milestones the Starship program might achieve next year, please feel free to share them in a reply to this post.