Author Topic: Butch and Suni return (Read 5188 times)

Lee Jay · « **on:** 08/14/2024 09:29 pm »

Pick one.

deltaV · « **Reply #1 on:** 08/15/2024 01:08 am »

I voted Dragon. I'm guessing that the reason why NASA keeps pushing back the decision date is there is still disagreement within NASA about whether Starliner is safe. Overruling the dissent would look uncomfortably similar to the Challenger and Columbia accidents.

BTW I'd guess that Starliner has a ~98% chance of returning successfully if crewed (i.e. 1 in 50 loss, slightly worse than the shuttle's 1 in 68), ~97% if uncrewed. So it's too dangerous for crew, but safer than the shuttle's first flight was, and we probably won't lose the vehicle.

effi · « **Reply #2 on:** 08/15/2024 10:14 am »

I voted for Starliner.
I still think they will really found the issue and can make sure a return is safe.
But I wouldn't be surprised, If they come home on board of a Dragon.
Let's just hope, that they can come safe back to earth.

freddo411 · « **Reply #3 on:** 08/15/2024 02:29 pm »

I voted Dragon

I believe the narrative around the helium leaks, thruster problems, software design failures and possibly other unpublicized issues have created an impression that starliner is not a predictable vehicle/service. Given that there is an alternative that is highly predictable, it become nearly impossible to decide to continue the testing with humans onboard. Ironically, there is a very high likelihood that when starliner finally undocks and attempts to land that it will be successful. Even so, CFT has been a failure.