Forums
L2 Sign Up
SLS/Orion
SpaceX
Commercial
ISS
International
Other
Shop
Home
Help
Tags
Calendar
Login
Register
Forums
»
SpaceX Vehicles and Missions
»
SpaceX Starship Program
»
Predictions for Starship Flight 5
1
Likes
Print
Pages: [
1
]
Go Down
Author
Topic: Predictions for Starship Flight 5 (Read 25414 times)
mordroberon
Member
Posts: 28
Liked: 11
Likes Given: 36
Predictions for Starship Flight 5
«
on:
06/10/2024 03:48 pm »
Now that Starship's 4th flight is behind us, let's look ahead to the next one, (and sorry JohnsterSpaceProgram for stepping on your toes, just wanted to start this up before too much information comes out about the next flight)
Previous Prediction thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60549.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My predictions, with prediction certainty, my "bins" are {50%, 75%, 90%, 99%}
Vehicles:
Booster 12, Ship 30 [99%]
Launch Date:
August 2024 (Narrow that down to first 2 weeks of Aug) [75%]
Mission Profile:
Insertion into same orbital trajectory as IFT 3/4 [75%], no payload [75%], will test "pez dispenser" doors [75%], will test ship engine relight [90%], will not attempt tower catch [50%]
Expected outcome:
- Booster: All booster engines light and remain powered through ascent [50%], all planned engines light for boost-back burn [75%], all planned engines light for booster landing burn [75%] , booster has successful soft landing in Gulf of Mexico [90%]
- Ship: ship engines all light [90%], ship reaches target trajectory [90%], successful test of opening and closing payload bay door, given it is planned [90%], successful engine relight [75%], starship survives re-entry [50%], starship lights engines for landing burn and soft-lands in ocean [50%]
«
Last Edit: 06/10/2024 04:08 pm by mordroberon
»
Logged
Slarty1080
Senior Member
Posts: 2796
UK
Liked: 1889
Likes Given: 828
Re: Predictions for Starship Flight 5
«
Reply #1 on:
06/13/2024 04:20 pm »
Vehicles: Booster 12, Ship 30 [90%]
Launch date w/c 27th July [50%] failing that August [75%]
Mission Profile: Insertion into same orbital trajectory as IFT 3/4 [99%], no payload [90%], will test "pez dispenser" doors [75%], will test ship engine relight [99%], will not attempt tower catch [50%]
Expected outcome:
- Booster: All booster engines light and remain powered through ascent [75%], all planned engines light for boost-back burn [75%], all planned engines light for booster landing burn [75%] , booster has successful soft landing in Gulf of Mexico [90%]
- Ship: ship engines all light [90%], ship reaches target trajectory [90%], successful test of opening and closing payload bay door, given it is planned [90%], successful engine relight [90%], starship survives re-entry [75%], starship lights engines for landing burn and soft-lands in ocean [75%]
Logged
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)
wannamoonbase
Elite Veteran
Senior Member
Posts: 5578
Denver, CO
Liked: 3298
Likes Given: 4066
Re: Predictions for Starship Flight 5
«
Reply #2 on:
06/13/2024 05:57 pm »
Booster 12
Ship 30
Mission profile nearly identical.
Preface: These predictions are based on 6-8 weeks until IFT-5, if longer than that, add booster catch.
Primary objectives:
1) Improve booster flyback and landing performance, trajectory and simulated landing (100%, move to first catch on IFT-6)
2) Continue to improve raptor relight performance (100%, they get all the engines each time on the booster for IFT-5)
3) On orbit maneuvering of Starship (100%, but can't wait for hot gas thrusters)
4) (Multiple) On orbit raptor relight (100%)
5) Expand the envelope on ship maneuvering and control during re-entry (100%)
5) Ship's new heatshield iteration test. (Better, not great, flap seals still under perform)
Would be interested to hear from others if they will do multiple single engine firings on orbit.
Edit: The hot staging on IFT-4 has some impressive tweaks. I'm sure they'll continue to make minute adjustments to the liftoff and staging.
«
Last Edit: 06/13/2024 06:20 pm by wannamoonbase
»
Logged
mordroberon
likes this
Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit. New Glenn, well we are waiting!
Print
Pages: [
1
]
Go Up
Tags:
Starship
SpaceX
Predictions
ift-5
flight 5
Forums
»
SpaceX Vehicles and Missions
»
SpaceX Starship Program
»
Predictions for Starship Flight 5
Advertisement
Tweets by NASASpaceflight
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
1