Yes, FSP is the reactor. They're building it now based on what I mentioned above.
Quote from: BN on 05/20/2025 02:48 pmYes, FSP is the reactor. They're building it now based on what I mentioned above.Back in 2022, NASA awarded three small contracts ($5M each) for making initial designs. These are almost "back of napkin" level. No building of anything involved (except stacks of paper).Then in January this year, they awarded one contract to Westinghouse to continue their design. According to the Westinghouse press release, this will continue the design, and "begin testing of critical technology elements". Doesn't sound like building actual reactors is part of this contract. (Oddly enough, this is not listed on NASA's FSP page.)And this Westinghouse reactor is as far as I can tell not based on either Kilopower or any of the ANPP reactors.
1.0 IntroductionThis statement of work (SOW) establishes the tasks to authorize Battelle EnergyAlliance (BEA) to issue a Request for Proposal (RFP) for a Phase 1 design of a FissionSurface Power (FSP) system with industry partners. The FSP project goals areconsistent with Space Policy Directive 6 (SPD-6), which states:“By the mid- to late-2020s, demonstrate a fission power system on the surface ofthe Moon that is scalable to a power range of 40 kWe and higher to supportsustained lunar presence and exploration of Mars.”The Phase 1 design effort shall culminate with each successful industry team submittingan FSP design package having engineering content sufficient to establish a high degreeof confidence in the technical maturity, schedule, and cost as detailed in Sections 3.0and 4.0. The design package shall include estimates for the technical, schedule, andcost requirements to design, build, and test a qualification unit (FSP-QU) andsubsequent flight system (FSP-FS). The FSP-QU shall replicate the flight unit withsufficient fidelity to establish confidence in the key design features and demonstrate allcritical aspects of the engineering design and functionality intended for the operationallunar unit. The FSP-QU will be nuclear fueled and should resemble a final FSP-FS inform, fit, and function to the maximum extent possible to establish confidence that thedesign will function in the expected lunar environment. Finally, the design package shallinclude a hardware development plan that identifies specific nuclear facilities andmaterial needs for accomplishing the FSP-FS.
Water ice sublimates in all conditions on Mars except for within craters above ~70 degrees latitude, at the lowest altitudes. Water ice concentrations in regolith range from 25% at ~70 degrees latitude to near ~100% at the north pole. Collection will likely involve autonomous machines cutting and placing blocks of ice in pressurized containers for transport south to the Mars base. Water ice will be needed for drinking, breathing and fuel production. Significant quantities may also be needed to remove perchlorates from agricultural regolith.
On the other hand, the tank size of Starship seems to have increased from 1200t to 1500t, which, at a 3.6:1 ratio, would be about 1175 tonne oxygen and 325 tonne methane.
Quote from: BN on 04/16/2024 10:36 amWater ice sublimates in all conditions on Mars except for within craters above ~70 degrees latitude, at the lowest altitudes. Water ice concentrations in regolith range from 25% at ~70 degrees latitude to near ~100% at the north pole. Collection will likely involve autonomous machines cutting and placing blocks of ice in pressurized containers for transport south to the Mars base. Water ice will be needed for drinking, breathing and fuel production. Significant quantities may also be needed to remove perchlorates from agricultural regolith. I'd expect them to start by using Rodriguez wells. These have lots of tech heritage in Earth polar areas. Drill a hole, drop a heating element down the hole with a hose, seal the hole to avoid sublimation/evaporation, and pump the water out as it liquifies. No need for strip-mining ice.Rodwells have well-known limitations as the cavity they're heating gets bigger, but it's almost certainly the fastest way to get going, even if it's not a long-term solution.
the drilling itself will cause heating and sublimation, which is why I think we need partial vacuum on the drill itself. I don't think it will be liquid water, it will be vapor.
What about a small nuclear reactor, produced both heat and electricity 24/7? Would it not be easier than a huge amount of solar panels? Heck, the reactor could be left on board the first Starship without offloading, and the first Starship used as a fuel depot. Then only water would have to be mined or extracted via robotics. At this point NASA would have to get involved with SpaceX for nuclear. It could be a molton salt type reactor using thorium.
found an update on this herehttps://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/glenn/nasas-fission-surface-power-project-energizes-lunar-exploration/“We’re getting a lot of information from the three partners,” Kaldon said. “We’ll have to take some time to process it all and see what makes sense going into Phase 2 and levy the best out of Phase 1 to set requirements to design a lower-risk system moving forward.”Open solicitation for Phase 2 is planned for 2025.After Phase 2, the target date for delivering a reactor to the launch pad is in the early 2030s. On the Moon, the reactor will complete a one-year demonstration followed by nine operational years. If all goes well, the reactor design may be updated for potential use on Mars.Beyond gearing up for Phase 2, NASA recently awarded Rolls Royce North American Technologies, Brayton Energy, and General Electric contracts to develop Brayton power converters."
the power situation is fairly worked out. a ~50kw fission reactor will likely be used. we have already developed these as part of the Kilopower project, as well as Camp Century. this is one of the best resources on this topic for crewed mars: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20170002010/downloads/20170002010.pdf
Quote from: Twark_Main on 05/19/2025 08:34 pmDon't drag the ice to the sublimation oven. Build the sublimation oven around the ice.This is my general concept. 1. Cover the surface with a thin membrane, burying the perimeter. 2. Pull a vacuum (these two steps are already proven with vacuum surcharging on Earth). 3. The ice underneath sublimates at the lower pressure. 4. Re-deposit the (now clean) ice in a collection vessel. 5. Recycle the heat of deposition back under the membrane, so it's used to sublimate more ice. Lots of heat in that phase change! 6. Optionally you might expose ice by "gardening" with heavy equipment or blasting, make the membrane a solar collector (80% vs 25% efficient), or selectively insulate to reduce heat loss.Fortunately this is very short range movement of water vapor (as mentioned above), so it does work...don't need the membrane imo. why do you think that is necessary?
Don't drag the ice to the sublimation oven. Build the sublimation oven around the ice.This is my general concept. 1. Cover the surface with a thin membrane, burying the perimeter. 2. Pull a vacuum (these two steps are already proven with vacuum surcharging on Earth). 3. The ice underneath sublimates at the lower pressure. 4. Re-deposit the (now clean) ice in a collection vessel. 5. Recycle the heat of deposition back under the membrane, so it's used to sublimate more ice. Lots of heat in that phase change! 6. Optionally you might expose ice by "gardening" with heavy equipment or blasting, make the membrane a solar collector (80% vs 25% efficient), or selectively insulate to reduce heat loss.Fortunately this is very short range movement of water vapor (as mentioned above), so it does work...
Quote from: BN on 05/20/2025 12:02 pmthe power situation is fairly worked out. a ~50kw fission reactor will likely be used. we have already developed these as part of the Kilopower project, as well as Camp Century. this is one of the best resources on this topic for crewed mars: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20170002010/downloads/20170002010.pdfToo expensive compared to solar and batteries.When it was $10 million per kilogram (or whatever) to transport to the Mars surface then maybe kilopower made some economic sense (and maybe not even then because panels and batteries could actually be lighter), but Starship has killed that justification off.
Quote from: BN on 05/20/2025 12:02 pmQuote from: Twark_Main on 05/19/2025 08:34 pmDon't drag the ice to the sublimation oven. Build the sublimation oven around the ice.This is my general concept. 1. Cover the surface with a thin membrane, burying the perimeter. 2. Pull a vacuum (these two steps are already proven with vacuum surcharging on Earth). 3. The ice underneath sublimates at the lower pressure. 4. Re-deposit the (now clean) ice in a collection vessel. 5. Recycle the heat of deposition back under the membrane, so it's used to sublimate more ice. Lots of heat in that phase change! 6. Optionally you might expose ice by "gardening" with heavy equipment or blasting, make the membrane a solar collector (80% vs 25% efficient), or selectively insulate to reduce heat loss.Fortunately this is very short range movement of water vapor (as mentioned above), so it does work...don't need the membrane imo. why do you think that is necessary?Because it sublimates a lot more ice per kilogram of equipment than an auger or tank+separation hopper. Also the auger requires 100% of the sublimation energy to come from electricity, vs the membrane which inexpensively harvests ambient solar energy.The membrane is necessary because it's the minimal implementation of the walls of your "tank" and "separation hopper." Nothing left to take away! Open pit mining doesn't work because as soon as you expose the ice it begins sublimating away. We saw this with the Phoenix lander.https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/bright-chunks-at-phoenix-landers-mars-site-must-have-been-ice/Essentially my proposal exploits this mechanism rather than trying to work against it.
Quote from: BN on 05/20/2025 07:42 pmfound an update on this herehttps://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/glenn/nasas-fission-surface-power-project-energizes-lunar-exploration/“We’re getting a lot of information from the three partners,” Kaldon said. “We’ll have to take some time to process it all and see what makes sense going into Phase 2 and levy the best out of Phase 1 to set requirements to design a lower-risk system moving forward.”Open solicitation for Phase 2 is planned for 2025.After Phase 2, the target date for delivering a reactor to the launch pad is in the early 2030s. On the Moon, the reactor will complete a one-year demonstration followed by nine operational years. If all goes well, the reactor design may be updated for potential use on Mars.Beyond gearing up for Phase 2, NASA recently awarded Rolls Royce North American Technologies, Brayton Energy, and General Electric contracts to develop Brayton power converters."Doing math on this, we’re talking early 2040s availability for Mars at best, ie if all goes well.
Quote from: Twark_Main on 05/13/2025 10:26 pmThis is my general concept. 1. Cover the surface with a thin membrane, burying the perimeter.How far away is the perimeter?
This is my general concept. 1. Cover the surface with a thin membrane, burying the perimeter.
How far down do you have to go to get under the water deposit?
Quote from: Twark_Main on 05/13/2025 10:26 pm 2. Pull a vacuum (these two steps are already proven with vacuum surcharging on Earth). 3. The ice underneath sublimates at the lower pressure.If you pull a vacuum, then the thin membrane coats the surface of the ice. I don't know enough about the thermodynamics of a solid covered by a membrane, but ISTM that the effective pressure will be atmospheric pressure--which is usually a couple of pascals above the triple point pressure. So I think you're not subliming a lot of ice without lots of heat.
2. Pull a vacuum (these two steps are already proven with vacuum surcharging on Earth). 3. The ice underneath sublimates at the lower pressure.
Quote from: Twark_Main on 05/13/2025 10:26 pm 4. Re-deposit the (now clean) ice in a collection vessel. 5. Recycle the heat of deposition back under the membrane, so it's used to sublimate more ice. Lots of heat in that phase change!You still need a heat pump to do this. Nothing wrong with recycling process heat, but it might be better to have less of it, not more.
4. Re-deposit the (now clean) ice in a collection vessel. 5. Recycle the heat of deposition back under the membrane, so it's used to sublimate more ice. Lots of heat in that phase change!
Quote from: Twark_Main on 05/13/2025 10:26 pm 6. Optionally you might expose ice by "gardening" with heavy equipment or blasting, make the membrane a solar collector (80% vs 25% efficient), or selectively insulate to reduce heat loss.We obviously don't know very much about the quality of the ice under the surface. Is it mixed with soils, or is it relatively pure?
6. Optionally you might expose ice by "gardening" with heavy equipment or blasting, make the membrane a solar collector (80% vs 25% efficient), or selectively insulate to reduce heat loss.
Is it a vast expanse, with tens of thousands of m³, or is it patchier?
How deep is the deposit? Tens or hundreds of meters? There are a lot of variables
Quote from: Twark_Main on 05/13/2025 10:26 pmFortunately this is very short range movement of water vapor (as mentioned above), so it does work, but I don't know if it makes sense as a method of bulk water transport much beyond that. Compared to a conventional water pipe it has extremely low fluid density, which means extremely high pipe mass and pumping power for a given mass flow rate. I assume you're thinking only of extremely high scale mining, on extremely large water deposits.
Fortunately this is very short range movement of water vapor (as mentioned above), so it does work, but I don't know if it makes sense as a method of bulk water transport much beyond that. Compared to a conventional water pipe it has extremely low fluid density, which means extremely high pipe mass and pumping power for a given mass flow rate.
For this to work, you have to be able not only to stake off the area you're going to mine, but also somehow seal the area you want to mine next, so it doesn't sublime away while you're waiting for the equipment to mine it to become available. At the very least, that involves trenching all the way to the bottom of the deposit, and constructing some kind of vapor-retaining wall.
If you have a really high quality deposit, it might make more sense to use underground mining techniques, where you can continue to the pressure of the overtopping regolith to keep thinks stable, while cutting galleries into the ice, chewing it up, and sending it to a hopper for transport to whatever refining you need to do.
But this is all colonial-scale mining. I'm more interested in base-scale extraction to begin with. That requires ~1000t of prop every 2.14y (for one return flight per synod), plus, say, maybe 100t a year for base use (assuming no water-intensive industrial processes, at least to begin with). That's about 100t of LCH4 per year, which requires 25t of hydrogen, which is 225t/y of water. Note that pure Sabatier reactions yield O:F=2:1, so you need some other way to lean the mixture down to 3.6:1. You can do that with RWGS, using recyclable hydrogen as a catalyst to generate excess O2, or you can simply supply more water. Too lazy to do the math on how much more water--say about double? That would make prop requirements 550t/y. Say 700t/y for all base ops. That's roughly 2t/day.
Moving this discussion here so it's on-topic.
Quote from: Twark_Main on 05/24/2025 04:31 pmMoving this discussion here so it's on-topic.Sorry, I just followed the link back to your original post, not realizing it wasn't on this thread.Rather than going point-by-point, let me try to restate my objection in a more coherent form:Let's suppose you scrape away the overcoat of regolith, which is what keeps the ice from subliming away in the first place, and then you real quick tack down your cover. As the ice sublimes away, the ice under the attachment point will also sublime away, undermining the attachment.Even if you constantly re-seat the attachment, the ice just outside the attachment point will now be exposed. Presumably, as that ice sublimes away, the regolith will slump, which will expose still more ice. Eventually, the regolith slump will get smaller and smaller, until the rest of the ice mass self-seals.I guess if that self-sealing process doesn't waste too much ice, you can simply move to the next area that doesn't have any slump, and continue on.Meanwhile, let's look at what's happening at the undermined attachment point. Unless the attachment point is constantly maintained, you'll start losing ice mass underneath it, which will limit the efficiency of the whole scheme.
This is all much, much more complicated than a rodwell. Rodwells in Greenland produced 38t of water per day. That seems like more than enough for early base purposes
PS: If it turns out to be more convenient to recover the water as vapor, then you don't hermetically seal your rodwell bore hole. Then the heat will sublimate the ice, and you collect the vapor from the bore hole. But it's a lot easier to have the ice sealing your mining operation than it is the membrane.
also, what to do in the case of a long global dust storm?
Quote from: BN on 05/23/2025 09:13 amalso, what to do in the case of a long global dust storm? Store water ahead of time so you can turn off production for a while to save power during the worst part of the dust storm?Global dust storms don't mean zero solar power, photovoltaic cells can use diffused light.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 05/24/2025 09:06 pmQuote from: Twark_Main on 05/24/2025 04:31 pmMoving this discussion here so it's on-topic.Sorry, I just followed the link back to your original post, not realizing it wasn't on this thread.Rather than going point-by-point, let me try to restate my objection in a more coherent form:Let's suppose you scrape away the overcoat of regolith, which is what keeps the ice from subliming away in the first place, and then you real quick tack down your cover. As the ice sublimes away, the ice under the attachment point will also sublime away, undermining the attachment.Even if you constantly re-seat the attachment, the ice just outside the attachment point will now be exposed. Presumably, as that ice sublimes away, the regolith will slump, which will expose still more ice. Eventually, the regolith slump will get smaller and smaller, until the rest of the ice mass self-seals.I guess if that self-sealing process doesn't waste too much ice, you can simply move to the next area that doesn't have any slump, and continue on.Meanwhile, let's look at what's happening at the undermined attachment point. Unless the attachment point is constantly maintained, you'll start losing ice mass underneath it, which will limit the efficiency of the whole scheme.If your ore is that rich, then instead of a perimeter trench you would bring in nearby sifted regolith and bury the perimeter in a mound instead. This will accomplish the same hermetic (enough) seal.Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 05/24/2025 09:06 pmThis is all much, much more complicated than a rodwell. Rodwells in Greenland produced 38t of water per day. That seems like more than enough for early base purposesMars abhors liquid water. Those Greenland rodwells don't need to be internally pressurized, but on Mars they will need to be, and one leak ruins the well. AFAIK such a rodwell has never been demonstrated.Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 05/24/2025 09:06 pmPS: If it turns out to be more convenient to recover the water as vapor, then you don't hermetically seal your rodwell bore hole. Then the heat will sublimate the ice, and you collect the vapor from the bore hole. But it's a lot easier to have the ice sealing your mining operation than it is the membrane.Is it easier though?? It strikes me as the exact opposite. We're obviously way past any experience from Greenland at this point.
Quote from: Vultur on 05/25/2025 03:29 amQuote from: BN on 05/23/2025 09:13 amalso, what to do in the case of a long global dust storm? Store water ahead of time so you can turn off production for a while to save power during the worst part of the dust storm?Global dust storms don't mean zero solar power, photovoltaic cells can use diffused light.what if you just landed? if energy production is down 50% for 2-3 months, you're probably dead.