2024 Starship Launches Poll

[CraigLieb]

A launch counts if the vehicle (starship and super heavy together) departs the orbital launch platform after a count down that was not aborted. This includes blowing up on the pad at or after T0 in pieces!

The local time of T0 will apply to launches on December 31 at midnight. Launch attempts from either coast count but the mission plan needs to get to orbital speed (not hop testing).

 Blowing up during fueling, or before T0 doesn’t count for the purpose of this poll.

Aborts during countdown even at T0 do not count. What happens (success or failure) during the flight doesn’t matter regarding this poll.

Hop testing will not count, only launches which have the flight plan to get to orbital velocity for upper stage.

[DanClemmensen]

I voted "more than 8" because I'm a wild-eyed optimist and because Elon said 10 in the all-hands meeting.

To get to 10, they will need to be on overlapped parallel testing tracks, for example an even track and an odd track, at least by mid-year. Not everything learned on an "even" launch will be incorporated in time for the next "odd" launch.  By the end of the year, the cadence needs to get to a launch every 3 weeks.

[effi]

I voted for 6.

Four or five from Starbase and one or two from Florida.

I would say that more than seven are a bit too optimistically, but let's see.

[sdsds]

I optimistically went with more than 8 launches, based on an underlying 50% confidence it will be 6 to 12 launches. The initial EIS mentioned a limit of 12 per year.

[galaxiasocial]

I firmly believe that Starship is poised for an incredible year ahead with an estimated five launches in 2024. With its groundbreaking capabilities, I'm optimistic that we're on the brink of reaching Mars sooner than we ever imagined. The future of space exploration is truly exciting!

[jongoff]

Does someone want to do another poll like this for 2025? Or should I put one together?

[deltaV]

For next year's poll the "More than 8" option should probably be split since SpaceX made progress this year. Maybe 8-12, 13-20, 21-30, 31-50, more than 50.

[AmigaClone]

For next year's poll the "More than 8" option should probably be split since SpaceX made progress this year. Maybe 8-12, 13-20, 21-30, 31-50, more than 50.

Since the highest number mentioned by someone with SpaceX has been 25, I would say the options should be in intervals of 5 (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35) with the highest option being 36+.

[deltaV]

Since the highest number mentioned by someone with SpaceX has been 25, I would say the options should be in intervals of 5 (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 25-30, 31-35) with the highest option being 35+.

I'm fine with stopping at 35 (but you have 25 and 35 appearing in two different options - don't do that).

[AmigaClone]

Since the highest number mentioned by someone with SpaceX has been 25, I would say the options should be in intervals of 5 (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 25-30, 31-35) with the highest option being 35+.

I'm fine with stopping at 35 (but you have 25 and 35 appearing in two different options - don't do that).

Fixed.

[Paul451]

Re: Next year's poll.

I'd suggest capping it a 25, given Shotwell's throwaway joke. I don't think having a bunch of options over that makes a lot of sense.

[jongoff]

Ok, since nobody else got around to it before me, here's the new poll: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=62125.0

I accidentally started it without setting any of the parameters like how long the poll would run for, etc. But let me know if this works for people.

~Jon

[Lar]

So how do people feel about the prediction power of this group? I missed voting this year..

[deltaV]

So how do people feel about the prediction power of this group? I missed voting this year..

Wisdom of the crowd did decently - the median vote was 5 launches and there were actually 4. I guessed 4 myself.