Poll

Predict the years in which Artemis II and Artemis III fly.

1.  AII in 2025, AIII in 2026
1 (1.9%)
2.  AII in 2026, AIII in 2026
1 (1.9%)
3.  AII in 2025, AIII in 2027
6 (11.1%)
4.  AII in 2026, AIII in 2027
9 (16.7%)
5.  AII in 2027, AIII in 2027
0 (0%)
6.  AII in 2025, AIII in 2028
11 (20.4%)
7.  AII in 2026, AIII in 2028
17 (31.5%)
8.  AII in 2027, AIII in 2028
0 (0%)
9.  AII in 2028, AIII in 2028
0 (0%)
10. AII in 2025, AIII in 2029
1 (1.9%)
11. AII in 2026, AIII in 2029
5 (9.3%)
12. AII in 2027, AIII in 2029
2 (3.7%)
13. AII in 2028, AIII in 2029
0 (0%)
14. AII in 2025, AIII in 2030
0 (0%)
15. AII in 2026, AIII in 2030
0 (0%)
16. AII in 2027, AIII in 2030
0 (0%)
17. AII in 2028, AIII in 2030
1 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 54

Voting closed: 02/23/2024 10:35 pm


Author Topic: When will Artemis II and III fly?  (Read 1862 times)

Offline dglow

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2067
  • Liked: 2295
  • Likes Given: 4439
When will Artemis II and III fly?
« on: 01/09/2024 10:35 pm »
Today NASA announced delays to the Artemis program.

Artemis II is now scheduled for launch in September of 2025, while Artemis III is NET September 2026.

But space is hard and schedules slip. So when will these missions actually fly? Your predictions above, please.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2024 10:46 pm by dglow »

Offline c4fusion

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 187
  • Sleeper Service
  • Liked: 118
  • Likes Given: 173
Re: When will Artemis II and III fly?
« Reply #1 on: 01/10/2024 05:00 am »
Personally, I apply Burgerís law to the second flight, itís going to be launching the following year, 2026, hopefully the beginning.

As for the third flight I would be amazed if it launches with only 1 year spacing, thus, I went a bit pessimistic and picked 2028 opposed to 2027.  After all, more trouble can occur with the SLS/Orion stack even without any trouble from the landers and the suits.

Offline deltaV

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2216
  • Change in velocity
  • Liked: 643
  • Likes Given: 2248
Re: When will Artemis II and III fly?
« Reply #2 on: 01/11/2024 06:14 am »
Artemis III isnít a crisp singular launch date.  It will be stretched over several months.  But a crewed landing on the lunar surface might be a distinct date.

Good point, the poll author should clarify when exactly each Artemis mission will count as occurring. Maybe the mission occurs the moment that the crew lifts off from Earth, or liftoff of Orion if plans are changed and there's no crew.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2024 06:14 am by deltaV »

Offline daedalus1

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 935
  • uk
  • Liked: 483
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: When will Artemis II and III fly?
« Reply #3 on: 01/11/2024 06:32 am »
Launch of crew from earth is a distinct date. That is the normal starting point.

Offline sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7214
  • ďWith peace and hope for all mankind.Ē
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 2059
  • Likes Given: 1973
Re: When will Artemis II and III fly?
« Reply #4 on: 01/11/2024 07:58 am »
I chose 7.  Artemis 2 in (late) 2026 and Artemis 3 in (early) 2028. Less than 18 months apart.

Rationale: between now and ~2027 mission success including assured crew safety are going to take precedence over schedule. Sometime around 2027 things will change, as outlined in the "Artemis 2 and 3 delay disscusion [sic]" thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60181.msg2557241#msg2557241

(And yes in this context "fly" clearly means "start to fly," i.e. liftoff.)
ó 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 ó

Offline dglow

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2067
  • Liked: 2295
  • Likes Given: 4439
Re: When will Artemis II and III fly?
« Reply #5 on: 01/11/2024 09:52 am »
Artemis III isnít a crisp singular launch date.  It will be stretched over several months.  But a crewed landing on the lunar surface might be a distinct date.
Good point, the poll author should clarify when exactly each Artemis mission will count as occurring. Maybe the mission occurs the moment that the crew lifts off from Earth, or liftoff of Orion if plans are changed and there's no crew.

Launch of crew from earth is a distinct date. That is the normal starting point.

(And yes in this context "fly" clearly means "start to fly," i.e. liftoff.)

Orion+SLS, with mission crew aboard, clearing the tower, is the intended basis for each of the years chosen in this poll.
All HLS launches are prelude. That a lunar landing or earth return should happen to occur in a new year is irrelevant; crew launch is what will be counted.

Offline baddux

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 142
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: When will Artemis II and III fly?
« Reply #6 on: 01/11/2024 01:25 pm »
I chose option 7, but A3 will be lunar orbit only. Landing will be in 2035 with smaller lander than current Starship.

Offline dglow

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2067
  • Liked: 2295
  • Likes Given: 4439
Re: When will Artemis II and III fly?
« Reply #7 on: 02/22/2024 03:45 pm »
Bump. Last call for voting.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1