When will Artemis II and III fly?

[dglow]

Today NASA announced delays to the Artemis program.

Artemis II is now scheduled for launch in September of 2025, while Artemis III is NET September 2026.

But space is hard and schedules slip. So when will these missions actually fly? Your predictions above, please.

[c4fusion]

Personally, I apply Burger’s law to the second flight, it’s going to be launching the following year, 2026, hopefully the beginning.

As for the third flight I would be amazed if it launches with only 1 year spacing, thus, I went a bit pessimistic and picked 2028 opposed to 2027.  After all, more trouble can occur with the SLS/Orion stack even without any trouble from the landers and the suits.

[deltaV]

Artemis III isn’t a crisp singular launch date.  It will be stretched over several months.  But a crewed landing on the lunar surface might be a distinct date.

Good point, the poll author should clarify when exactly each Artemis mission will count as occurring. Maybe the mission occurs the moment that the crew lifts off from Earth, or liftoff of Orion if plans are changed and there's no crew.

[daedalus1]

Launch of crew from earth is a distinct date. That is the normal starting point.

[sdsds]

I chose 7.  Artemis 2 in (late) 2026 and Artemis 3 in (early) 2028. Less than 18 months apart.

Rationale: between now and ~2027 mission success including assured crew safety are going to take precedence over schedule. Sometime around 2027 things will change, as outlined in the "Artemis 2 and 3 delay disscusion [sic]" thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60181.msg2557241#msg2557241

(And yes in this context "fly" clearly means "start to fly," i.e. liftoff.)

[dglow]

Artemis III isn’t a crisp singular launch date.  It will be stretched over several months.  But a crewed landing on the lunar surface might be a distinct date.

Good point, the poll author should clarify when exactly each Artemis mission will count as occurring. Maybe the mission occurs the moment that the crew lifts off from Earth, or liftoff of Orion if plans are changed and there's no crew.

Launch of crew from earth is a distinct date. That is the normal starting point.

(And yes in this context "fly" clearly means "start to fly," i.e. liftoff.)

Orion+SLS, with mission crew aboard, clearing the tower, is the intended basis for each of the years chosen in this poll.
All HLS launches are prelude. That a lunar landing or earth return should happen to occur in a new year is irrelevant; crew launch is what will be counted.

[baddux]

I chose option 7, but A3 will be lunar orbit only. Landing will be in 2035 with smaller lander than current Starship.

[dglow]

Bump. Last call for voting.

[c4fusion]

In light of the inspector general report: link, I am starting to feel like 2026 for Artemis 2 is a bit optimistic.  There is going to be some public and political pressure to slow down.

[dglow]

In light of the inspector general report: link, I am starting to feel like 2026 for Artemis 2 is a bit optimistic.  There is going to be some public and political pressure to slow down.

2026 for AII would already be a year late from the previously-announced schedule.

[c4fusion]

In light of the inspector general report: link, I am starting to feel like 2026 for Artemis 2 is a bit optimistic.  There is going to be some public and political pressure to slow down.

2026 for AII would already be a year late from the previously-announced schedule.

Yeah I definitely still think it’s going to be sometime in 2026 but now I wouldn’t be surprised if they announce at some point that they need to delay another year. Previously I would have actually been surprised.