Author Topic: Successful landings of F9/FH first stages in 2024 (Read 4389 times)

Lar · « **on:** 12/21/2023 09:30 pm »

Companion poll to this one: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60093.msg2551594#msg2551594

Hmm, looks like I skipped 2023's landing poll. Oops... The number correlates highly to the number of launches, it was less mostly thanks to Starship.

2022 has the rules: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55470

Lar · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/21/2023 09:37 pm »

I went with the same bracket as my landings guess (over 120). Depending on starship flights and FH core expends it may vary but ok.

Lar · « **Reply #2 on:** 10/31/2024 10:32 pm »

Still worth doing this? It's getting close to time to do it for 2025.

AmigaClone · « **Reply #3 on:** 10/31/2024 11:25 pm »

Quote from: Lar on 10/31/2024 10:32 pm

Still worth doing this? It's getting close to time to do it for 2025.

I would say it's still worth doing. Granted, I would suggest the following ranges for 100 landings or less:

01 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 -100
101-105...

Lar · « **Reply #4 on:** 11/01/2024 03:08 pm »

Quote from: AmigaClone on 10/31/2024 11:25 pm

Quote from: Lar on 10/31/2024 10:32 pm
Still worth doing this? It's getting close to time to do it for 2025.

I would say it's still worth doing. Granted, I would suggest the following ranges for 100 landings or less:

01 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 -100
101-105...

As I said on the other thread, I like this idea but probably would start the 5s at 75 because paranoia

.. the question is how high to go

175? 200?

AmigaClone · « **Reply #5 on:** 11/02/2024 11:34 am »

Quote from: Lar on 11/01/2024 03:08 pm

Quote from: AmigaClone on 10/31/2024 11:25 pm
Quote from: Lar on 10/31/2024 10:32 pm
Still worth doing this? It's getting close to time to do it for 2025.

I would say it's still worth doing. Granted, I would suggest the following ranges for 100 landings or less:

01 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 -100
101-105...

As I said on the other thread, I like this idea but probably would start the 5s at 75 because paranoia .. the question is how high to go 175? 200?

I think maybe going by 5s between 75 and 175 with 176-200, 201-225, and 226+. Granted, since SLC-6 might come online sometime in 2025 that could distort the predicted numbers.

Lar · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/03/2024 02:22 am »

I think I'll be doing some variant of this shortly... still set the voting cutoff for around the end of January anyway though.

(if I start it early but still end on January 30 or so, that's a violation of our norms ... https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36993.msg1983144#msg1983144 ... but I'm OK with that.

Lar · « **Reply #7 on:** 01/01/2025 06:56 pm »

I did

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=62077.0

Paul451 · « **Reply #8 on:** 01/04/2025 01:05 am »

Quote from: Lar on 01/01/2025 06:56 pm

I did

Are you interested in doing a similar poll for Starship/SH landings/captures, with SS and SH captures counted separately? It's amusingly multi-variable, predicting the number of successful launches, and the number of capture attempts, and when they start also attempts with SS, and the success rate of each.

Lar · « **Reply #9 on:** 01/05/2025 09:01 pm »

Quote from: Paul451 on 01/04/2025 01:05 am

Quote from: Lar on 01/01/2025 06:56 pm
I did

Are you interested in doing a similar poll for Starship/SH landings/captures, with SS and SH captures counted separately? It's amusingly multi-variable, predicting the number of successful launches, and the number of capture attempts, and when they start also attempts with SS, and the success rate of each.

I think just one poll would be hard (combinatorial explosion). Probably easier to do two polls with those two separate counts. Why don't you give it a go, if you need help, let me know. (I'm trying to get out of the poll creation business hehe)