Total Members Voted: 197
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1726422074254578012
Remember “Elon time” is at play. There is a mandatory Mishap Investigation that is required after IFT-2 and until SpaceX completes and submits that report, and the FAA reviews data from that report as well as the post-launch inspections and water quality reports required by the existing launch license, IFT-3 is on hold.’Even aside from the reporting and regulatory aspects, the OLM, tower and tank farm complex need to be inspected and any repairs made; the deluge system probably needs to be pressure tested and maybe flow-tested as well to confirm it held up with no repair necessary; and the deluge and propellant tanks need to be replenished. After all that is done, then the next Booster (10?) and Ship both need static fire campaigns, plus any ancillary servicing (grid fin actuators, TPS tile tests/repairs, potentially engine swaps …)....
Elon's 3-4 weeks is when he thinks the hardware will be ready. He didn't say a word about when the mishap investigation will be over, or when the FAA license will issue, or what'll happen if they find they need to make significant changes. So, not a referendum on Elon time, just a referendum on when everything will align.
Quote from: JAFO on 11/20/2023 08:59 pmIs this what the forum really thinks of Elon's 3-4 weeks estimate?I voted on a launch date, not on a hardware ready date. Or are you talking about some other Elon quote than the one in the OP?
Is this what the forum really thinks of Elon's 3-4 weeks estimate?
If they change the name to AFT-Alpha is it still IFT-3?The IFT naming convention has been used for almost a year, long overdue for a change.
I would not mind the IFT naming convention remaining until Starship is declared operational.
Quote from: KilroySmith on 11/20/2023 09:04 pmElon's 3-4 weeks is when he thinks the hardware will be ready. He didn't say a word about when the mishap investigation will be over, or when the FAA license will issue, or what'll happen if they find they need to make significant changes. So, not a referendum on Elon time, just a referendum on when everything will align.If the FTS on both booster and ship worked as planned, and the debris stayed in the correct zone, is there a reason why the mishap investigation and license process needs to be more than a formality?
I would have voted for January, but it's not on the list
Voted March as a NET with lots of technical and regulatory uncertainties acting on it. Caveat that it can easily slip to the right as per the latest flight's experience - more so based on the first test flights, but I expect the major -and much needed- improvements in infrastructure to play a significant role now. Very unlikely to the left IMO, although institutional (and specifically NASA) pressure has worked its magic once already, and quite publicly so, so now it's not just internal SpaceX interests that drive the program forward, at least short-term.Source: got a 2/2 track record in prior flight polls, nailed to within very close accuracy, plus repeated correct foresights regardimg Boca Chica tests before full stacks were a thing. Nobody's crystal ball is perfect though, that's for sure.Not a source: Musk's tweets get less factual on average as a function of calendar time (very much not limited to rockets, but most of us know that already). Willing to bet my car on no further flights in 2023.
I don't yet understand the root cause of the November 2023 SS flight termination, and what improvements are smart requirements to reach the (orbital) trajectory. Can some of us explain why these requirements are trivial? If these IFT-3 requirements are trivial then January's possible.Else it's NET March.
January to be optimistic although a slip to February wouldn't be surprising.Rocket Lab plans to return to flight after only 2-months and some change. With negligible pad damage and a fail-early test plan I expect IFT-3 will be closer to that than F9's 6-month return to flight.
Quote from: DeimosDream on 11/24/2023 03:55 pmJanuary to be optimistic although a slip to February wouldn't be surprising.Rocket Lab plans to return to flight after only 2-months and some change. With negligible pad damage and a fail-early test plan I expect IFT-3 will be closer to that than F9's 6-month return to flight.It all comes down to how quickly SpaceX can discover the root cause of IFT-2's upper-stage failure and implement fixes to mitigate it: I think that will be the pacing item for IFT-3, not permits or ground infrastructure. I haven't read those threads linked above, so I don't know how optimistic people are that SpaceX has the data (and information) needed to understand and overcome whatever led to the seemingly-random flight termination of Starship on IFT-2, but I chose to be optimistic and vote for February.
Quote from: trimeta on 11/24/2023 06:22 pmQuote from: DeimosDream on 11/24/2023 03:55 pmJanuary to be optimistic although a slip to February wouldn't be surprising.Rocket Lab plans to return to flight after only 2-months and some change. With negligible pad damage and a fail-early test plan I expect IFT-3 will be closer to that than F9's 6-month return to flight.It all comes down to how quickly SpaceX can discover the root cause of IFT-2's upper-stage failure and implement fixes to mitigate it: I think that will be the pacing item for IFT-3, not permits or ground infrastructure. I haven't read those threads linked above, so I don't know how optimistic people are that SpaceX has the data (and information) needed to understand and overcome whatever led to the seemingly-random flight termination of Starship on IFT-2, but I chose to be optimistic and vote for February.There is a possible dependency of the License delay on the complexity of the cause and SpaceX' proposed mitigations, if any. FAA's oversight of SpaceX' mishap investigation probably means they can issue the license quickly because they already know what the report is going to say, but The time needed for due diligence increases with the complexity of the report. So, in the best possible ideal case, SpaceX analyzes the problem in a day or two, comes up with a software fix and implements it in a week, and submits their report, FAA signs off, and SpaceX applies for a launch license as soon as the new stack completes its WDR. Of course, reality will almost certainly be longer than that. I think the highest probability is that the SH mishap and the SS mishap must be analyzed separately and that at least one of them is at least somewhat complicated.
[...] twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1744801160777638265QuoteJessica Jensen of SpaceX says that hardware for Starship flight three will be ready in January, and that the company expects to receive an FAA license in February.
Jessica Jensen of SpaceX says that hardware for Starship flight three will be ready in January, and that the company expects to receive an FAA license in February.
Voted March as a NET with lots of technical and regulatory uncertainties acting on it. [...]Source: got a 2/2 track record in prior flight polls, nailed to within very close accuracy, plus repeated correct foresights regarding Boca Chica tests before full stacks were a thing. Nobody's crystal ball is perfect though, that's for sure.Not a source: Musk's tweets get less factual on average as a function of calendar time (very much not limited to rockets, but most of us know that already). Willing to bet my car on no further flights in 2023.
Looks like only ~79% of us (myself included) were overoptimistic on the IFT-3 timing. Should we do a new poll for IFT-4?~Jon