Author Topic: Who will land on the Moon first, the Moonship or the Blue Moon? (Read 7666 times)

Tywin · « **on:** 11/17/2023 07:14 pm »

Who will land first for the Artemis mission, the Moonship or the Blue Moon - National Team...?

deltaV · « **Reply #1 on:** 11/18/2023 12:09 am »

By "Moonship" do you mean SpaceX's Starship?

trimeta · « **Reply #2 on:** 11/18/2023 02:16 am »

Yes, Tywin believes that even though the first two Artemis Moon landings are scheduled to happen on Starship (only the third is assigned to Blue Origin's vehicle), and Starship's second flight may occur within 12 hours of submitting this post, while New Glenn will be lucky to have its first launch within 12 months, that nonetheless Blue Origin will suddenly accelerate their pace of development so rapidly that their Blue Moon will be ready far earlier than Lunar Starship is, and NASA will have no choice but to switch the contract for the first Artemis Moon landing to them.

All of Tywin's polls are trolling. We should just ignore them.

Tywin · « **Reply #3 on:** 11/30/2023 11:17 pm »

https://twitter.com/USGAO/status/1730285697628561742

punder · « **Reply #4 on:** 11/30/2023 11:34 pm »

Would you please provide a direct link to the report? I can't get to twitter from work

AnalogMan · « **Reply #5 on:** 11/30/2023 11:51 pm »

Quote from: punder on 11/30/2023 11:34 pm

Would you please provide a direct link to the report? I can't get to twitter from work

https://www.gao.gov/assets/d24106256.pdf

Callmeishmael · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/04/2023 05:36 am »

There really should be a 3rd option: The Chinese.

ZachS09 · « **Reply #7 on:** 12/04/2023 01:48 pm »

Quote from: Callmeishmael on 12/04/2023 05:36 am

There really should be a 3rd option: The Chinese.

I'll accept that third option.

Yggdrasill · « **Reply #8 on:** 12/05/2023 05:26 am »

I'd guess the first four moon landers used will be something like this:

2027: Artemis 3 using Starship
2029: Artemis 4 using Starship
2030: Artemis 5 using Starship
2031: Artemis 6 using Blue Moon

Tywin · « **Reply #9 on:** 01/22/2025 01:41 am »

Blue Origin had the New Glenn, the Blue Moon Mk1 is schedule to fly this year...

Well, maybe Artemis III is with the Blue Moon lander...

Tywin · « **Reply #10 on:** 01/22/2025 01:42 am »

Quote from: trimeta on 11/18/2023 02:16 am

Yes, Tywin believes that even though the first two Artemis Moon landings are scheduled to happen on Starship (only the third is assigned to Blue Origin's vehicle), and Starship's second flight may occur within 12 hours of submitting this post, while New Glenn will be lucky to have its first launch within 12 months, that nonetheless Blue Origin will suddenly accelerate their pace of development so rapidly that their Blue Moon will be ready far earlier than Lunar Starship is, and NASA will have no choice but to switch the contract for the first Artemis Moon landing to them.

All of Tywin's polls are trolling. We should just ignore them.

Well, trolling like NG orbit first, right?

Will see...

tesla · « **Reply #11 on:** 01/22/2025 01:49 am »

I'm pretty sure Moonship will land first. A new animation was just dropped for the Chinese Lander.

Tywin · « **Reply #12 on:** 05/29/2025 10:10 pm »

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/sts1251/status/1927813482461671578

Vultur · « **Reply #13 on:** 06/01/2025 04:08 am »

Mk 1 will probably launch before any Moon Starship. That doesn't guarantee landing though (e.g. Peregrine). So both remain entirely possible.

lightleviathan · « **Reply #14 on:** 06/01/2025 06:00 pm »

Quote from: Tywin on 05/29/2025 10:10 pm

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/sts1251/status/1927813482461671578

Not necessarily, but rather just that Artemis III should have multiple options in case one lander isn't ready. Redundancy is what NASA has pushed for in HLS and Jared agreed with that position.

SweetWater · « **Reply #15 on:** 06/03/2025 05:13 pm »

The poll doesn't specify otherwise, so I assume this is for the first vehicle landing and not the first crewed landing. I voted Blue Moon, but IMO at this point it's basically a toss-up, and there are too many unknowns to make a really educated guess.

Obviously the Starship flight tests have not gone as smoothly as SpaceX would have hoped, and that's been discussed in other threads devoted to the topic. Both companies have to demonstrate propellant transfer and storage, engine relight and TLI, and landing. Oddly we know more about the landing engine (BE-7) than whatever engines SpaceX plans for the Moonship, and I believe BE-7 has a test scheduled for later this year.

I think this could go either way, but SpaceX seems to have a lot more on their plate than Blue, so I'm betting that Blue gets there first.

Tywin · « **Reply #16 on:** 06/30/2025 09:02 pm »

https://twitter.com/DrChrisCombs/status/1939780754352775544

envy887 · « **Reply #17 on:** 07/01/2025 01:50 pm »

Is this poll for a crewed landing vehicle? Or do subscale non-crewable landers count?

Robotbeat · « **Reply #18 on:** 07/01/2025 02:17 pm »

Yeah, I mean SpaceX has been the launch provider for most of the uncrewed landers to the Moon in the last couple years.

Tywin · « **Reply #19 on:** 07/01/2025 03:02 pm »

Quote from: envy887 on 07/01/2025 01:50 pm

Is this poll for a crewed landing vehicle? Or do subscale non-crewable landers count?

Crewed landing.

Poll

Who will land on the Moon first, the Moonship or the Blue Moon?

Author Topic: Who will land on the Moon first, the Moonship or the Blue Moon? (Read 7666 times)