Poll

Which portions of the IFT-2 flight plan will succeed?

1.  Engine Startup
102 (9.8%)
2.  Liftoff (vehicle clears the tower)
104 (10%)
3.  Ascent through Max Q
100 (9.7%)
4.  Hot Staging
94 (9.1%)
5.  Booster Flip
78 (7.5%)
6.  Boostback Burn
70 (6.8%)
7.  Booster Descent
64 (6.2%)
8.  Booster Landing Burn
44 (4.2%)
9.  Controlled (vertical) Booster Touchdown
34 (3.3%)
10. Starship Ascent Burn
83 (8%)
11. Starship Engine Cutoff
73 (7%)
12. Starship Coast
72 (6.9%)
13. Starship Entry Begins
71 (6.9%)
14. Starship Entry Completes
25 (2.4%)
15. Starship Landing (intact vehicle impacts water)
22 (2.1%)

Total Members Voted: 109

Voting closed: 11/15/2023 07:03 pm


Author Topic: IFT-2 Outcomes  (Read 4632 times)

Offline dglow

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IFT-2 Outcomes
« on: 11/05/2023 07:03 pm »
SpaceX has published its flight plan for Starship’s Integrated Flight Test 2. Let’s predict the extent to which this plan will succeed.

Instructions
• You have 15 votes.
• Choose as many or as few options as you like.
• If you predict IFT-2 will be a perfect success, check all 15 boxes.

Remember: your votes indicate successful outcomes.
• For instance, if you think Super Heavy will perform well but won’t initiate its landing burn, check 1 through 7 and not 8 or 9.
• Similarly, if you predict Starship will begin atmospheric reentry but won’t survive the process, check 13 but neither 14 nor 15.

Enjoy!

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #1 on: 11/05/2023 07:25 pm »
you should add 0: little or no damage to GSE

Offline dglow

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #2 on: 11/05/2023 08:00 pm »
you should add 0: little or no damage to GSE

Considered it, but the topic deserves its own poll. I’d suggest a similar one to this, with multiple votes, but phrased in the negative — where voters predict which components of Stage 0 will fail or take damage during IFT-2.

Offline Eer

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #3 on: 11/05/2023 08:14 pm »
1-13. Not counting on clean entry and descent of StarShip...
From "The Rhetoric of Interstellar Flight", by Paul Gilster, March 10, 2011: We’ll build a future in space one dogged step at a time, and when asked how long humanity will struggle before reaching the stars, we’ll respond, “As long as it takes.”

Offline ZachS09

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #4 on: 11/05/2023 11:21 pm »
This may sound too optimistic, but I’m checking all 15. I wish for complete success, not just three or four milestones that make Elon happy enough.
« Last Edit: 11/05/2023 11:22 pm by ZachS09 »
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline woods170

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #5 on: 11/06/2023 12:41 pm »
1 to 4 only.
Because too many unknowns attached to hot-staging.IMO, IFT-2 will mostly be a failure with the booster not managing to successfully land in the water. And I don't see Starship reaching its suborbital orbit.

Online sdsds

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #6 on: 11/06/2023 10:31 pm »
I didn't check 7-8-9 or 14-15. Even without completing those test phases, the test flight as a whole would still (IMHO) count as a resounding success.
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline tyrred

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #7 on: 11/07/2023 03:42 am »
I like this poll. Positive.

I think everything is going to how well except booster descent and simulated landing.

I have a feeling hot staging will cause problems for the booster instead of the ship.

Weird, yeah?

Offline geza

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #8 on: 11/07/2023 04:04 am »
Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Offline dglow

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #9 on: 11/07/2023 02:18 pm »
Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   ;)

Offline AmigaClone

Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #10 on: 11/08/2023 09:57 pm »
Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   ;)

The percentages are correct based on the total number of votes this poll has received.

I wonder if the current software relating to polls allows for the creation of a poll with multiple independent questions each with an answer instead of a single question with multiple non-exclusive options.

Offline dglow

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #11 on: 11/09/2023 03:26 pm »
Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   ;)

The percentages are correct based on the total number of votes this poll has received.

I wonder if the current software relating to polls allows for the creation of a poll with multiple independent questions each with an answer instead of a single question with multiple non-exclusive options.

Based upon the options surfaced during poll creation it does not; whether that is due to capability or configuration I cannot say.

So yeah, what this poll is doing is a bit of a hack. The more useful percentages are based on total voters, not total votes cast. If time allows, once the poll closes I’ll calculate and post those results.

Offline dglow

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #12 on: 11/13/2023 04:53 pm »
SpaceX has published its flight plan for Starship’s Integrated Flight Test 2. Let’s predict the extent to which this plan will succeed.

Instructions
• You have 15 votes.
• Choose as many or as few options as you like.
• If you predict IFT-2 will be a perfect success, check all 15 boxes.

Remember: your votes indicate successful outcomes.
• For instance, if you think Super Heavy will perform well but won’t initiate its landing burn, check 1 through 7 and not 8 or 9.
• Similarly, if you predict Starship will begin atmospheric reentry but won’t survive the process, check 13 but neither 14 nor 15.

Two days remain – please cast your votes.

Offline mikelepage

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #13 on: 11/14/2023 07:00 am »
Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   ;)

You can see the total number of people who voted though, so it's easy enough to do the math. Interesting that the second option is more popular than the first  :o ::)

Online Zed_Noir

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #14 on: 11/14/2023 08:24 am »
<snip>
....Interesting that the second option is more popular than the first  :o ::)
IIRC the Super Heavy can lose about 3 Raptors at lift off and still be able to push the Starship into orbit.

Offline eeergo

Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #15 on: 11/14/2023 08:54 am »
<snip>
....Interesting that the second option is more popular than the first  :o ::)
IIRC the Super Heavy can lose about 3 Raptors at lift off and still be able to push the Starship into orbit.


And up to six in flight, or so was conveyed during the first flight.
-DaviD-

Offline laszlo

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #16 on: 11/14/2023 01:57 pm »
Is clearing the tower just that or does it have to be done in a controlled fashion rather than as a ball of flaming debris?

Offline MrRichTexas

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #17 on: 11/14/2023 02:22 pm »
I think all will be successful except neither will stick the landing.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #18 on: 11/14/2023 02:30 pm »
Oh, I'm going pretty much all in, but I don't think either vehicle will stick their landings. Definitely optimistic about this flight, and maybe irrationally so...  :D
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline mikelepage

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Re: IFT-2 Outcomes
« Reply #19 on: 11/18/2023 01:36 pm »
So I think the answer to this poll was (successful stages in bold):
1.  Engine Startup 102 (9.8%)
2.  Liftoff (vehicle clears the tower) 104 (10%)
3.  Ascent through Max Q 100 (9.7%)
4.  Hot Staging 94 (9.1%)
5.  Booster Flip 78 (7.5%)

6.  Boostback Burn 70 (6.8%)
7.  Booster Descent 64 (6.2%)
8.  Booster Landing Burn 44 (4.2%)
9.  Controlled (vertical) Booster Touchdown 34 (3.3%)
10. Starship Ascent Burn 83 (8%)
11. Starship Engine Cutoff 73 (7%)
12. Starship Coast 72 (6.9%)
13. Starship Entry Begins 71 (6.9%)
14. Starship Entry Completes 25 (2.4%)
15. Starship Landing (intact vehicle impacts water) 22 (2.1%)

With 109 votes.

Which I think means that the difference between 5 and 6 (ie. 8/109 voters = 7.3%) were correct when it came to the booster. And the difference between 10 and 11 (ie. 10/109 voters = 9.2%) were correct when it came to the ship.

Actually pretty reassuring to see how rational every voter was. I vote for repeating this format of poll for IFT-3 :D

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