IFT-2 Outcomes

[dglow]

SpaceX has published its flight plan for Starship’s Integrated Flight Test 2. Let’s predict the extent to which this plan will succeed.

Instructions
• You have 15 votes.
• Choose as many or as few options as you like.
• If you predict IFT-2 will be a perfect success, check all 15 boxes.

Remember: your votes indicate successful outcomes.
• For instance, if you think Super Heavy will perform well but won’t initiate its landing burn, check 1 through 7 and not 8 or 9.
• Similarly, if you predict Starship will begin atmospheric reentry but won’t survive the process, check 13 but neither 14 nor 15.

Enjoy!

[DanClemmensen]

you should add 0: little or no damage to GSE

[dglow]

you should add 0: little or no damage to GSE

Considered it, but the topic deserves its own poll. I’d suggest a similar one to this, with multiple votes, but phrased in the negative — where voters predict which components of Stage 0 will fail or take damage during IFT-2.

[Eer]

1-13. Not counting on clean entry and descent of StarShip...

[ZachS09]

This may sound too optimistic, but I’m checking all 15. I wish for complete success, not just three or four milestones that make Elon happy enough.

[woods170]

1 to 4 only.
Because too many unknowns attached to hot-staging.IMO, IFT-2 will mostly be a failure with the booster not managing to successfully land in the water. And I don't see Starship reaching its suborbital orbit.

[sdsds]

I didn't check 7-8-9 or 14-15. Even without completing those test phases, the test flight as a whole would still (IMHO) count as a resounding success.

[tyrred]

I like this poll. Positive.

I think everything is going to how well except booster descent and simulated landing.

I have a feeling hot staging will cause problems for the booster instead of the ship.

Weird, yeah?

[geza]

Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

[dglow]

Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   

[AmigaClone]

Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   

The percentages are correct based on the total number of votes this poll has received.

I wonder if the current software relating to polls allows for the creation of a poll with multiple independent questions each with an answer instead of a single question with multiple non-exclusive options.

[dglow]

Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   

The percentages are correct based on the total number of votes this poll has received.

I wonder if the current software relating to polls allows for the creation of a poll with multiple independent questions each with an answer instead of a single question with multiple non-exclusive options.

Based upon the options surfaced during poll creation it does not; whether that is due to capability or configuration I cannot say.

So yeah, what this poll is doing is a bit of a hack. The more useful percentages are based on total voters, not total votes cast. If time allows, once the poll closes I’ll calculate and post those results.

[dglow]

SpaceX has published its flight plan for Starship’s Integrated Flight Test 2. Let’s predict the extent to which this plan will succeed.

Instructions
• You have 15 votes.
• Choose as many or as few options as you like.
• If you predict IFT-2 will be a perfect success, check all 15 boxes.

Remember: your votes indicate successful outcomes.
• For instance, if you think Super Heavy will perform well but won’t initiate its landing burn, check 1 through 7 and not 8 or 9.
• Similarly, if you predict Starship will begin atmospheric reentry but won’t survive the process, check 13 but neither 14 nor 15.

Two days remain – please cast your votes.

[mikelepage]

Great pll, I voted 1-13.

However, the percentages are wrong. Almost everybody voted yes for 1-3, and the results are 9.6%. Obviously, because the percentage calculation assumes exclusive choices.

Would it be NSF without quirky forum software?   

You can see the total number of people who voted though, so it's easy enough to do the math. Interesting that the second option is more popular than the first 

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>
....Interesting that the second option is more popular than the first 

IIRC the Super Heavy can lose about 3 Raptors at lift off and still be able to push the Starship into orbit.

[eeergo]

<snip>
....Interesting that the second option is more popular than the first 

IIRC the Super Heavy can lose about 3 Raptors at lift off and still be able to push the Starship into orbit.

And up to six in flight, or so was conveyed during the first flight.

[laszlo]

Is clearing the tower just that or does it have to be done in a controlled fashion rather than as a ball of flaming debris?

[MrRichTexas]

I think all will be successful except neither will stick the landing.

[Coastal Ron]

Oh, I'm going pretty much all in, but I don't think either vehicle will stick their landings. Definitely optimistic about this flight, and maybe irrationally so... 

[mikelepage]

So I think the answer to this poll was (successful stages in bold):
1.  Engine Startup 102 (9.8%)
2.  Liftoff (vehicle clears the tower) 104 (10%)
3.  Ascent through Max Q 100 (9.7%)
4.  Hot Staging 94 (9.1%)
5.  Booster Flip 78 (7.5%)
6.  Boostback Burn 70 (6.8%)
7.  Booster Descent 64 (6.2%)
8.  Booster Landing Burn 44 (4.2%)
9.  Controlled (vertical) Booster Touchdown 34 (3.3%)
10. Starship Ascent Burn 83 (8%)
11. Starship Engine Cutoff 73 (7%)
12. Starship Coast 72 (6.9%)
13. Starship Entry Begins 71 (6.9%)
14. Starship Entry Completes 25 (2.4%)
15. Starship Landing (intact vehicle impacts water) 22 (2.1%)

With 109 votes.

Which I think means that the difference between 5 and 6 (ie. 8/109 voters = 7.3%) were correct when it came to the booster. And the difference between 10 and 11 (ie. 10/109 voters = 9.2%) were correct when it came to the ship.

Actually pretty reassuring to see how rational every voter was. I vote for repeating this format of poll for IFT-3