Total Members Voted: 108
Voting closed: 09/17/2023 01:55 am
I chose end of October…lots of bureaucratic opportunities still to slow things down…My sense is that SpaceX has the capability and desire to go much faster but is being held back by current FAA process and possible environmental group challenges.Makes me wonder if a moon landing would have ever taken place given today’s government regulations and protocols existing back then. I mean in the 60’s rockets were blowing up all the time …problems were analyzed, resolved and the next attempt came very quickly.SpaceX’s iterative development approach means failure is an option…that’s how they learn..and quickly….but if each failure is going to take government reviews and approvals, success is going to come very slowly…
I voted later in October, but I think the voting is too clumpy.There’s not a zero chance that it won’t fly before December or January or later.
New data that might impact your guesses: https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037
Quote from: jongoff on 09/15/2023 09:11 pmNew data that might impact your guesses: https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1702789621447295037Wow, there it is — the very real possibility for that storm of concrete, rebar, and dust to bite their schedule in the butt. Good luck navigating this one, SpaceX.
Bump to confirm: tea leaves suggest launch NET November 6, 2023, between 5:25 a.m. and 11:15 a.m., right? Eyeballing it, that roughly correlates to 86% of poll responses being over-optimistic....For context, I remain optimistic that a Starship will depart on a trajectory towards Mars in the 2024 launch window! ;-)