Poll

How soon do you think SpaceX will be ready to launch Starship/SuperHeavy again after their 4/20 first flight?

1-2 months (May/June 2023)
3 (1.2%)
3-4 months (July/Aug 2023)
49 (19.8%)
5-6 months (Sep/Oct 2023)
88 (35.6%)
7-9 months (Nov 2023 - Jan 2024)
68 (27.5%)
10-12 months (Feb - Apr 2024)
31 (12.6%)
13-18 months (May - Oct 2024)
3 (1.2%)
More than 18 months
2 (0.8%)
Never
3 (1.2%)

Total Members Voted: 247

Voting closed: 05/01/2023 11:17 pm


Author Topic: How Soon Will SpaceX Be Ready to Fly Starship/SuperHeavy Again?  (Read 38013 times)

Offline deltaV

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I voted 3-4 months, mostly because Musk said 1-2 months and I'm guessing he's optimistic but not wildly so.

Offline Eric Hedman

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I voted 10 to 12 months.  I think it will take a couple of months to assess the damage and what went wrong for both the pad and for the booster.  Then it will probably take another month or two to determine what to do to the pad and the booster.  If there are relatively simple solutions it may take another six months to implement them.  I'm hoping it is only 10 to 12 months as a worst case.

Offline Metalskin

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It's going to be interesting how this pans out and our estimates. The results make a nice curve :-)

Kinda burnt by the fact that I thought they would fly end of last year.
« Last Edit: 04/23/2023 09:44 pm by Metalskin »
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Online jackvancouver

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I voted 9 months because there is NO WAY that launch table is remaining at that height. Most of the work is done, just time to iterate the launch table, relocate the ship QD to the new height, durability upgrades, etc.

Offline lightleviathan

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I voted 7-9 months because not only will SpaceX have to do a long test campaign again, but rebuild and revalidate the OLM & GSE, along with analyse the anomaly of B7/S24.

Offline rsnellenberger

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I voted 3-4 months, which presumes that any damage to ground facilities (tower, chopsticks & winch, fluids plumbing and tankage) can be repaired or replaced relatively quickly, leaving the pad surface and any required changes to the vehicles as the long pole on the tent.

The pictures we've seen (from RGV Aerial) of what Elon described as a "massive water-cooled steel plate" suggests that the "new" pad surface will still be essentially flat, with the steel plate covering the pad surface below (and possibly extending beyond) the launch platform.  If the cooling water is fed at the center and flows radially outward, heating at the center and entrainment by the exhaust at the plate boundaries (similar to a vacuum ejector) could probably help maintain a high flow rate.

Offline Robotbeat

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This is on the label of the steel SpaceX has on site at Boca Chica. Flame diverter. Other pics show trapezoidal pieces, probably like how you would want for a non-flat shape.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Jim

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Starship is no longer just a project of a visionary, today there are many strategic interests in launching this ship, which is why I think that everything that is necessary will move quickly.

not really.

Offline TrevorMonty

Starship is no longer just a project of a visionary, today there are many strategic interests in launching this ship, which is why I think that everything that is necessary will move quickly.

not really.
Jim is correct. DoD don't need it but nice to have in their inventory. NASA is in process of selecting 2nd HLS that won't rely on SS. The only one that SS is essential to is SpaceX.


Offline whitelancer64

I think it's going to be about six months. FAA investigation and repairs to the pad aside, so much went wrong on the test flight that needs to get analyzed and fixed.
« Last Edit: 04/25/2023 07:07 pm by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline jongoff

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Starship is no longer just a project of a visionary, today there are many strategic interests in launching this ship, which is why I think that everything that is necessary will move quickly.

not really.
Jim is correct. DoD don't need it but nice to have in their inventory. NASA is in process of selecting 2nd HLS that won't rely on SS. The only one that SS is essential to is SpaceX.

I know my startup, Gravitics, would be pretty bummed out if Starship doesn't make it to market. We can do smaller scale StarMax modules, but that would be sad. :-(

~Jon

Offline spacenut

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I voted 3-4, but after seeing all the pictures, it may take 6 months to repair the launch site damage, build a flame trench and a water suppression system.  In he meantime, fix any problems with the rocket and stage separation system.  It seems that if the Starship carrying crew needs to be able to separate and fly away from any danger, even if it has to do the belly flop vertical maneuver and soft land in the ocean. 

Offline Robotbeat

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Starship is no longer just a project of a visionary, today there are many strategic interests in launching this ship, which is why I think that everything that is necessary will move quickly.

not really.
Jim is correct. DoD don't need it but nice to have in their inventory. NASA is in process of selecting 2nd HLS that won't rely on SS. The only one that SS is essential to is SpaceX.
NASA doesn’t have the money for a second HLS, it wouldn’t happen until the 2030s. Starship is also the only hope NASA has of affording a surface Mars program within the next 20 years.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline chopsticks

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Starship is no longer just a project of a visionary, today there are many strategic interests in launching this ship, which is why I think that everything that is necessary will move quickly.

not really.
Jim is correct. DoD don't need it but nice to have in their inventory. NASA is in process of selecting 2nd HLS that won't rely on SS. The only one that SS is essential to is SpaceX.
NASA doesn’t have the money for a second HLS, it wouldn’t happen until the 2030s. Starship is also the only hope NASA has of affording a surface Mars program within the next 20 years.
There's also Dearmoon, Isaacman, and the flight booked by that older couple.

Online DanClemmensen

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Starship is no longer just a project of a visionary, today there are many strategic interests in launching this ship, which is why I think that everything that is necessary will move quickly.

not really.
Jim is correct. DoD don't need it but nice to have in their inventory. NASA is in process of selecting 2nd HLS that won't rely on SS. The only one that SS is essential to is SpaceX.
NASA doesn’t have the money for a second HLS, it wouldn’t happen until the 2030s. Starship is also the only hope NASA has of affording a surface Mars program within the next 20 years.
NASA has already committed to funding a second HLS: it's called Starship HLS Option B. It's the third HLS (appendix P) that is to be independent of Starship.

Offline Robotbeat

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How much funding? Can't be very much. It hasn't been selected yet. Again, I don't think a second HLS will land with crew before 2030 at the earliest.

Heck, September 2029 is the current NET date for Artemis V, the first Artemis surface mission that doesn't already have Starship assigned to it. There's virtually no way in heck there'll be a second HLS flying with crew before the 2030s.
« Last Edit: 04/26/2023 04:13 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online DanClemmensen

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How much funding? Can't be very much. It hasn't been selected yet. Again, I don't think a second HLS will land with crew before 2030 at the earliest.

Heck, September 2029 is the current NET date for Artemis V, the first Artemis surface mission that doesn't already have Starship assigned to it. There's virtually no way in heck there'll be a second HLS flying with crew before the 2030s.
No Appendix P award yet, but some studies totaling $146 million were funded in September 2021 for the follow-on lander.
   https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-selects-five-us-companies-to-mature-artemis-lander-concepts

Offline john smith 19

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I don't really have a strong handle on this. Then I heard that Musk was talking 2 months.

"Elon time" is a well known phenomena and I've heard people say you need to triple any estimate he makes.

But then I saw the foundation damage done by the SS take off.

SX has launched a lot of rockets and it's always taken them (like every other VTO launch company) some time to get there pad back in shape to launch another one.

I don't think I've ever seen that serious an amount of damage to the ground following a launch.

Obviously they'll need to work on the pad repair/upgrade in parallel with the MIB.

The joker in the pack is what if the MIB require a substantial pad modification that wasn't planned in the repair/upgrade?

Without the pad damage I could see 6-9 months but I've voted 10-12 with it.  :(

As always the real clock is the next Mars launch window, and wheather they can get something in shape to put through it.

Short of death or a serious incapacitating illness Musk won't quit so time will tell who are the optimists and who are the realists.  :(
« Last Edit: 04/26/2023 07:24 pm by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline trimeta

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"Next launch in two months" isn't just Elon Time now: it's also Sen. Administrator Bill Nelson Time.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1651638991853088768

Quote
Nelson says SpaceX has told NASA that it can repair the pad and prepare the next Starship in about 2 months. Last week’s failure is “not a big downer”.

Offline Lee Jay

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If their next launch happens before summer starts, I'll be absolutely floored.

 

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