How Soon Will SpaceX Be Ready to Fly Starship/SuperHeavy Again?

[Lee Jay]

Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim

What makes you think anything was made not ready in the interim?

Two de-stacks (IIRC).

[eeergo]

Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim

What makes you think anything was made not ready in the interim?

Two de-stacks (IIRC).

And the basic fact they are announcing its readiness now as news, from which it follows it wasn't at some point right before.


To be clear, I think it was never really technically ready, at least with an appropriate level of confidence. But if folks accept Musk's announcement, something in the interim must have changed.

[thespacecow]

Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim

What makes you think anything was made not ready in the interim?

Two de-stacks (IIRC).

You know de-stacking indicate it's not ready ... how exactly?

And the basic fact they are announcing its readiness now as news, from which it follows it wasn't at some point right before.

They're announcing it because apparently some blockheads keep thinking they're not ready.

Note that the theory that SpaceX is not ready and are just using license delay as excuses is not scientific, because there's no way to falsify it. The only way SpaceX can prove they're ready is to actually launch the rocket, but they can't do it because they don't have license, so any theory claiming they're not ready cannot be falsified.

[Lee Jay]

Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim

What makes you think anything was made not ready in the interim?

Two de-stacks (IIRC).

You know de-stacking indicate it's not ready ... how exactly?

If it's not stacked, it's not ready, plus they wouldn't destack it if it didn't need some work that required the destacking.

[thespacecow]

Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim

What makes you think anything was made not ready in the interim?

Two de-stacks (IIRC).

You know de-stacking indicate it's not ready ... how exactly?

If it's not stacked, it's not ready, plus they wouldn't destack it if it didn't need some work that required the destacking.

LOL, they can literally restack in a few hours and be ready again, that's just grasping at straws.

Yes, they can and have done additional work, but that doesn't mean it wasn't ready to launch before. They can find additional things to do on the vehicle while waiting, just better use of the downtime i.e. make lemonade out of lemons, Gerst explained this to the reporters after the Senate hearing.

[Lee Jay]

Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim

What makes you think anything was made not ready in the interim?

Two de-stacks (IIRC).

You know de-stacking indicate it's not ready ... how exactly?

If it's not stacked, it's not ready, plus they wouldn't destack it if it didn't need some work that required the destacking.

LOL, they can literally restack in a few hours and be ready again, that's just grasping at straws.

The time between stacking and fuel loading for launch is a lot longer than a few hours.

Yes, they can and have done additional work, but that doesn't mean it wasn't ready to launch before. They can find additional things to do on the vehicle while waiting, just better use of the downtime i.e. make lemonade out of lemons, Gerst explained this to the reporters after the Senate hearing.

If the vehicle is working perfectly, to the degree you can test it without launching it, what else is there to do that would require a destack?  If it's not working perfectly, you aren't ready to start the countdown.

I've worked on many large, complex systems.  If everything is working - every sensor, every actuator, the entire data acquisition system, there isn't much to do unless you just want to clean and polish surfaces or something similar.  And if it is working, I certainly don't want to disassemble and reassemble it.  That can make things go wrong that weren't wrong before. 

[kenny008]

Just because they make an adjustment or enhancement does NOT mean it wasn't ready to fly before the adjustment.  If they have the time, and they have an update they'd like to install to increase the probability of success, they don't seem to hesitate to do it.  That doesn't necessarily mean they weren't ready to fly before the destack.  It might just mean they are now even more likely to have a successful launch because they had time to add additional enhancements.

[thespacecow]

LOL, they can literally restack in a few hours and be ready again, that's just grasping at straws.

The time between stacking and fuel loading for launch is a lot longer than a few hours.

Of course, that's because there're final launch preparations that they can only do right before launch, and they can't do them without a license. Things like installing FTS charges.

Yes, they can and have done additional work, but that doesn't mean it wasn't ready to launch before. They can find additional things to do on the vehicle while waiting, just better use of the downtime i.e. make lemonade out of lemons, Gerst explained this to the reporters after the Senate hearing.

If the vehicle is working perfectly, to the degree you can test it without launching it, what else is there to do that would require a destack?  If it's not working perfectly, you aren't ready to start the countdown.

This is a test flight, they do NOT need everything to work perfectly to launch, as shown in the first launch where they launched without all engines working.

It's also possible they're retrofitting enhancements from later booster builds to B9. Starship is still in prototype stage, still being constantly improved. It's not some final product where everything has been worked out to perfection.

[laszlo]

Of course, that's because there're final launch preparations that they can only do right before launch, and they can't do them without a license. Things like installing FTS charges.

And that, in a nutshell, is why the OP was incorrect not to include the FAA license and everything it depends on in factors to consider when determining readiness.

[Lars-J]

Wording is exactly the same as Musk's tweet in Sept 6th. Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim, and took 1.5 months to make ready again. Assuming it's a real "ready pending approval" and not another "ready-but-not-quite".

At some point we all get to the point where Musk's word becomes... less than credible. I'm personally way past it at this stage.

But even giving the statement the maximum amount of leeway, they might have considered themselves "ready" then, but they are certainly "more ready" now. They have presumably not been sitting doing nothing for the last few weeks. Additional tests, additional time to refine the software has probably been welcomed by most of the engineers involved.

[laszlo]

Wording is exactly the same as Musk's tweet in Sept 6th. Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim, and took 1.5 months to make ready again. Assuming it's a real "ready pending approval" and not another "ready-but-not-quite".

At some point we all get to the point where Musk's word becomes... less than credible. I'm personally way past it at this stage.

But even giving the statement the maximum amount of leeway, they might have considered themselves "ready" then, but they are certainly "more ready" now. They have presumably not been sitting doing nothing for the last few weeks. Additional tests, additional time to refine the software has probably been welcomed by most of the engineers involved.

Like the tiles falling off Columbia leading to a successful first flight of an entirely new system on only the second launch attempt because of the nearly 2 years additional time it provided for additional systems development/testing and crew training.

[Lee Jay]

Since they have a license and are again de-stacking, I would argue now that they are still not ready.  So 7-9 months seems to be the winner to me.

[jongoff]

Since they have a license and are again de-stacking, I would argue now that they are still not ready.  So 7-9 months seems to be the winner to me.

I was thinking the same thing. But I'm biased, since I voted for 7-9 mos...

~Jon

[Robotbeat]

I also voted 7 to 9 months but if you are even going to make any kind of distinction between being ready and actually launching, then I think they were ready earlier. They don’t have a planetary window or anything. So I honestly think that the original poll should’ve been worded for when it will actually launch, but since it isn’t I think we cannot include the regulatory delay so I would say probably six months

[Metalskin]

I also voted 7 to 9 months but if you are even going to make any kind of distinction between being ready and actually launching, then I think they were ready earlier. They don’t have a planetary window or anything. So I honestly think that the original poll should’ve been worded for when it will actually launch, but since it isn’t I think we cannot include the regulatory delay so I would say probably six months

I've always interpreted the poll as when are they ready, not when do they launch. So I agree with the six months. A tad tough to call as we don't have complete visibility of when SpaceX was really ready. But as has been argued, a lot of the recent works could be just using the wait time for the launch license to their advantage.

[thespacecow]

Since they have a license and are again de-stacking, I would argue now that they are still not ready.  So 7-9 months seems to be the winner to me.

I was thinking the same thing. But I'm biased, since I voted for 7-9 mos...

~Jon

So you're going to ignore your own rules set out in the first post? That's convenient...

I define ready as:
1- Pad and GSE hardware fully repaired.
2- Any modifications to the launch vehicle made to address other anomalies.
3- The next Starship/Superheavy stacked and put through testing including a static fire sufficient to give confidence that the pad is going to work for the next flight

They met this criteria months ago.

[Lars-J]

I also voted 7 to 9 months but if you are even going to make any kind of distinction between being ready and actually launching, then I think they were ready earlier. They don’t have a planetary window or anything. So I honestly think that the original poll should’ve been worded for when it will actually launch, but since it isn’t I think we cannot include the regulatory delay so I would say probably six months

I've always interpreted the poll as when are they ready, not when do they launch. So I agree with the six months. A tad tough to call as we don't have complete visibility of when SpaceX was really ready. But as has been argued, a lot of the recent works could be just using the wait time for the launch license to their advantage.

That's silly. Without interior visibility we don't know they were ready. What we DO KNOW is that they replaced grid fin actuators the day before launch.

Musk makes all kinds of claims. Some true, some that may come true in the future, and some that are just lies.

So the only reasonable way to judge it is when it ACTUALLY launched, not when someone claims to be ready. And having the permission/authority to launch is a critical aspect.

[DanClemmensen]

Musk makes all kinds of claims. Some true, some that may come true in the future, and some that are just lies.

Please be careful with your words. A "lie" is a statement that is known to the speaker to be wrong. These statements may have been wrong, but I think few if any of them were lies.

[Metalskin]

I also voted 7 to 9 months but if you are even going to make any kind of distinction between being ready and actually launching, then I think they were ready earlier. They don’t have a planetary window or anything. So I honestly think that the original poll should’ve been worded for when it will actually launch, but since it isn’t I think we cannot include the regulatory delay so I would say probably six months

I've always interpreted the poll as when are they ready, not when do they launch. So I agree with the six months. A tad tough to call as we don't have complete visibility of when SpaceX was really ready. But as has been argued, a lot of the recent works could be just using the wait time for the launch license to their advantage.

That's silly. Without interior visibility we don't know they were ready. What we DO KNOW is that they replaced grid fin actuators the day before launch.

Musk makes all kinds of claims. Some true, some that may come true in the future, and some that are just lies.

So the only reasonable way to judge it is when it ACTUALLY launched, not when someone claims to be ready. And having the permission/authority to launch is a critical aspect.

As I said "A tad tough to call as we don't have complete visibility of when SpaceX was really ready."

I agree, we have no internal view of when they are ready, and that should have been easy to infer from my comments. However I take a pragmatic approach and try not to be biased for or against Space X/Elon Musk.

Those who insist on trying to prove Elon's claims blindly and those who try and see everything in a negative/anti-Musk light, are the ones being silly.

--- edited for clarity ---

[laszlo]

Those who think these polls are anything beyond a drinking game are silly.