Author Topic: How Soon Will SpaceX Be Ready to Fly Starship/SuperHeavy Again? (Read 66686 times)

jongoff · « **Reply #120 on:** 09/13/2023 10:27 pm »

Does anyone have any heartburn with me provisionally calling this for September 2023? From all I can tell from public sources, and L2, it doesn't sound like there are any remaining launch-gating technical work on Starship/Superheavy or the launch site. It sounds like there are a small number of tasks that still have to happen once the launch license is approved, like activating the FTS, etc. But all of those sound like ones that can take place in short order once the launch license is approved. Am I wrong? Is anyone aware of any work that's still open that needs to happen prior to launch that isn't waiting on the launch license?

If so, it looks like the wisdom of crowds really won this time around. Just under 5 months from the initial launch attempt is impressively fast. As mentioned previously, I had estimated 6-9 months, so I was a bit on the pessimistic side (though closer than Elon's initial 2mos estimate). Very impressive.

Anyone want to take a guess on how long until launch? Should I do another poll, or do people think it's close enough to not be worth a separate poll?

Personal guess is that launch will most likely take place sometime in October. Theoretically it could still happen before the end of September, but that gives time for evaluations and any closeout tasks, but assumes no major delays due to environmental concerns, etc. It is still possible that some wildcard like the water permit issues could delay things into 2024, but my personal most likely guess is October.

~Jon

ulm_atms · « **Reply #121 on:** 09/13/2023 11:19 pm »

Quote from: jongoff on 09/13/2023 10:27 pm

Does anyone have any heartburn with me provisionally calling this for September 2023? From all I can tell from public sources, and L2, it doesn't sound like there are any remaining launch-gating technical work on Starship/Superheavy or the launch site. It sounds like there are a small number of tasks that still have to happen once the launch license is approved, like activating the FTS, etc. But all of those sound like ones that can take place in short order once the launch license is approved. Am I wrong? Is anyone aware of any work that's still open that needs to happen prior to launch that isn't waiting on the launch license?

If so, it looks like the wisdom of crowds really won this time around. Just under 5 months from the initial launch attempt is impressively fast. As mentioned previously, I had estimated 6-9 months, so I was a bit on the pessimistic side (though closer than Elon's initial 2mos estimate). Very impressive.

Anyone want to take a guess on how long until launch? Should I do another poll, or do people think it's close enough to not be worth a separate poll?

Personal guess is that launch will most likely take place sometime in October. Theoretically it could still happen before the end of September, but that gives time for evaluations and any closeout tasks, but assumes no major delays due to environmental concerns, etc. It is still possible that some wildcard like the water permit issues could delay things into 2024, but my personal most likely guess is October.

~Jon

So start another poll for which day they will launch in October.

I fully believe polls here are a good way to have fun with each other on this forum. The polls might be a technical poll but for some reason on polls....the comments never turn into any heated back and forth like most of the threads do. Hell, I've seen members add polls to a thread due to a heated discussion. Once they post the poll, people kinda start laughing and things seem to simmer down. Hell, I've seen multiple polls asking when they think a thread will be locked by all the negative back and fourth.

Poll away!!

jongoff · « **Reply #122 on:** 09/14/2023 01:43 am »

Ok, give me a minute, and I'll put together a new poll.

jongoff · « **Reply #123 on:** 09/14/2023 01:56 am »

New poll here: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59538.0

Lee Jay · « **Reply #124 on:** 09/19/2023 03:09 pm »

Quote from: jongoff on 09/13/2023 10:27 pm

Does anyone have any heartburn with me provisionally calling this for September 2023? From all I can tell from public sources, and L2, it doesn't sound like there are any remaining launch-gating technical work on Starship/Superheavy or the launch site. It sounds like there are a small number of tasks that still have to happen once the launch license is approved, like activating the FTS, etc. But all of those sound like ones that can take place in short order once the launch license is approved. Am I wrong? Is anyone aware of any work that's still open that needs to happen prior to launch that isn't waiting on the launch license?

The destacking and comments in various places indicate that the vehicle is *almost* ready, but not quite. I'm still guessing this month at this point.

jongoff · « **Reply #125 on:** 09/19/2023 03:54 pm »

Quote from: Lee Jay on 09/19/2023 03:09 pm

Quote from: jongoff on 09/13/2023 10:27 pm
Does anyone have any heartburn with me provisionally calling this for September 2023? From all I can tell from public sources, and L2, it doesn't sound like there are any remaining launch-gating technical work on Starship/Superheavy or the launch site. It sounds like there are a small number of tasks that still have to happen once the launch license is approved, like activating the FTS, etc. But all of those sound like ones that can take place in short order once the launch license is approved. Am I wrong? Is anyone aware of any work that's still open that needs to happen prior to launch that isn't waiting on the launch license?

The destacking and comments in various places indicate that the vehicle is *almost* ready, but not quite. I'm still guessing this month at this point.

I saw the same thing. Very unlikely to push into the next voting period (November), but apparently it's not all the way ready yet. Just really close.

~Jon

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #126 on:** 09/19/2023 04:26 pm »

Quote from: Lee Jay on 09/19/2023 03:09 pm

Quote from: jongoff on 09/13/2023 10:27 pm
Does anyone have any heartburn with me provisionally calling this for September 2023? From all I can tell from public sources, and L2, it doesn't sound like there are any remaining launch-gating technical work on Starship/Superheavy or the launch site. It sounds like there are a small number of tasks that still have to happen once the launch license is approved, like activating the FTS, etc. But all of those sound like ones that can take place in short order once the launch license is approved. Am I wrong? Is anyone aware of any work that's still open that needs to happen prior to launch that isn't waiting on the launch license?

The destacking and comments in various places indicate that the vehicle is *almost* ready, but not quite. I'm still guessing this month at this point.

As long as we are speculating, my speculation is that it was ready and they would have launched it, but they now think the license delay gives them time to add some minor improvements without affecting the actual launch date.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #127 on:** 10/01/2023 06:34 am »

Elon is calling it, again. 🤣

Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/01/2023 06:32 am

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1708298178754490608

Quote
Starship is ready for flight 2!

Lee Jay · « **Reply #128 on:** 10/10/2023 02:02 am »

And now it's destacked again. I don't think I'd call this one until at least a WDR or static fire.

Zed_Noir · « **Reply #129 on:** 10/10/2023 02:23 am »

Quote from: Lee Jay on 10/10/2023 02:02 am

And now it's destacked again. I don't think I'd call this one until at least a WDR or static fire.

They have to destacked to installed the flight termination ordnance.

Not sure it is worthwhile to do static fire with 33 engines than to launch the stack. There is a risk
of damaging the pad and the launch infrastructure from prolong static fire.

Also it is preferable to have the stack down range over water in the event of a Ka-boom rather than sitting on the pad.

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #130 on:** 10/10/2023 02:36 am »

Quote from: Lee Jay on 10/10/2023 02:02 am

And now it's destacked again. I don't think I'd call this one until at least a WDR or static fire.

Yeah, it was only stacked as part of the Cybertruck photo-op

ZachS09 · « **Reply #131 on:** 10/10/2023 07:26 pm »

Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/10/2023 02:36 am

Quote from: Lee Jay on 10/10/2023 02:02 am
And now it's destacked again. I don't think I'd call this one until at least a WDR or static fire.
Yeah, it was only stacked as part of the Cybertruck photo-op

Is that true? Or are you pulling our legs?

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #132 on:** 10/10/2023 07:36 pm »

Quote from: ZachS09 on 10/10/2023 07:26 pm

Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/10/2023 02:36 am
Quote from: Lee Jay on 10/10/2023 02:02 am
And now it's destacked again. I don't think I'd call this one until at least a WDR or static fire.
Yeah, it was only stacked as part of the Cybertruck photo-op

Is that true? Or are you pulling our legs?

It was intended as a joke, hence the emoji. I have exactly zero info except what's posted here.

Lee Jay · « **Reply #133 on:** 10/24/2023 04:40 pm »

Quote from: Lee Jay on 10/10/2023 02:02 am

And now it's destacked again. I don't think I'd call this one until at least a WDR or static fire.

Well, there's a WDR today, so pending its success (obviously) and decent data review, I'd be good with calling this one.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #134 on:** 10/24/2023 05:26 pm »

I think there’s not any easy way to consider starship “ready” until it has literally launched. If they get delayed for weather, for instance, I’m sure they’d take that time to check out additional systems.

It’s not like SLS where there’s a limited number of rollouts, etc, so they have to artificially limit such things.

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #135 on:** 10/24/2023 05:32 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 10/24/2023 05:26 pm

I think there’s not any easy way to consider starship “ready” until it has literally launched. If they get delayed for weather, for instance, I’m sure they’d take that time to check out additional systems.

It’s not like SLS where there’s a limited number of rollouts, etc, so they have to artificially limit such things.

As a Moon rocket, SLS launches only in a certain window of about 2 weeks each month (at least for Artemis I), so it aimed to be ready at the beginning of the window. For Starship's IFT, pretty much any day will do.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #136 on:** 10/25/2023 04:51 am »

This time I believe it:

twitter.com/spacex/status/1716979479845953646

Quote

Starship and Super Heavy were loaded with more than 10 million pounds of propellant today in a flight-like rehearsal ahead of launch

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1716979627154149710

Quote

Vehicle is ready for the second test flight of a fully integrated Starship, pending regulatory approval

I don’t think FTS isn’t installed yet, but I assume SpaceX will wait for regulatory approval before doing that.

eeergo · « **Reply #137 on:** 10/25/2023 09:25 am »

Wording is exactly the same as Musk's tweet in Sept 6th. Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim, and took 1.5 months to make ready again. Assuming it's a real "ready pending approval" and not another "ready-but-not-quite".

spacenut · « **Reply #138 on:** 10/25/2023 12:00 pm »

Probably adding something new or improved to the rocket while waiting. He is constantly improving the Raptor engine. Other things could be upgraded. He likes to simplify things. Look how many changes to Falcon 9 he did before locking in the final version.

thespacecow · « **Reply #139 on:** 10/25/2023 01:17 pm »

Quote from: eeergo on 10/25/2023 09:25 am

Wonder what was ready then (pending regulatory approval, of course, of course), became not ready in the interim

What makes you think anything was made not ready in the interim?

Poll

How soon do you think SpaceX will be ready to launch Starship/SuperHeavy again after their 4/20 first flight?

Author Topic: How Soon Will SpaceX Be Ready to Fly Starship/SuperHeavy Again? (Read 66686 times)