Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1v - Kosmos 2568 (EO MKA#4?) - Plesetsk - 29 March 2023 (19:57 UTC)  (Read 15059 times)

Offline B. Hendrickx

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1419
  • Liked: 1970
  • Likes Given: 70
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.2480

edit by mod: should read:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.msg2468243#msg2468243

Quote
A1703/23 - TEMPO DANGER AREA  'RUSSIAN MISSILE MAR/APRIL 2023' ESTABLISHED.
PSN: 755900N 0212600E - 755000N 0220500E - 753500N 0224700E - 752100N
0225200E - 751500N 0221300E - 752400N 0212900E - 753600N 0205100E -
755300N 0204300E - (755900N 0212600E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN
MISSILES. GND - UNL, DAILY 1900-2100, 29 MAR 19:00 2023 UNTIL 03 APR 21:00 2023.
CREATED: 21 MAR 06:07 2023

These are the coordinates for the impact zone of the payload fairing of a Soyuz-2.1v. So it looks like we have a Soyuz-2.1a or Soyuz-2.1b launch coming up on March 23 (possibly with Bars-M N°4 or another imaging satellite) and a Soyuz-2.1v on March 29. This could carry EO MKA N°4 (which on a Russian spaceflight forum was rumored to be set for launch this month), but something else is also possible.
« Last Edit: 03/30/2023 10:11 am by input~2 »

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1689
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 462
  • Likes Given: 199
I'm not sure why today's newest Russian space launch was mistakenly speculated in some posts on this forum to involve a Soyuz-2.1v before it was carried out, but you were pretty spot on when you pointed out that the coordinates given in the NOTAM for March 23 were consistent with those announced for previous Soyuz-2.1a and Soyuz-2.1b launches.

Offline Alter Sachse

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2441
  • Near Heidelberg
  • Liked: 1491
  • Likes Given: 1820
I'm not sure why today's newest Russian space launch was mistakenly speculated in some posts on this forum to involve a Soyuz-2.1v before it was carried out, but you were pretty spot on when you pointed out that the coordinates given in the NOTAM for March 23 were consistent with those announced for previous Soyuz-2.1a and Soyuz-2.1b launches.
There were rumors about a 2.1v launch.
Now it seems that this launch will take place March 29th.
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline B. Hendrickx

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1419
  • Liked: 1970
  • Likes Given: 70
A NOTAM has been released for the impact zone of the first stage. The coordinates perfectly correspond to those for earlier Soyuz-2-1v launches, so there's virtually no doubt left that this is the booster that will be flying on March 29.

Offline B. Hendrickx

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1419
  • Liked: 1970
  • Likes Given: 70
The NOTAM window for the launch (19.00-21.00 UTC) coincides with passes over Plesetsk by the Kosmos-2561/2562 pair launched last October as well as Kosmos-2558, the satellite orbiting in the same plane as USA 326.

Robert Christy on Seesat:

Quote
This is a Soyuz-2 1v - I estimate launch time as 19:40 UTC +/- 20 min.
It's aimed towards sun-synchronous orbit with LTDN 11:00 - 11:30.
There is a possibility that it is intended to match the orbit plane occupied by Cosmos 2561 & 2562, launched 2022 Oct 21, see: https://www.orbitalfocus.uk/2022#137

Nico Janssen on Seesat:

Quote
A Kosmos reconnaissance satellite is to be launched on 2023-03-29 from Plesetsk, probably between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.

Interestingly, it looks like this Kosmos will be launched into the orbit plane of Kosmos 2558, and therefore also the orbit plane of USA 326. USA 326 will pass overhead Plesetsk at around 20:22 UTC.

Apparently Kosmos 2558 (53323, 22089A) will get some assistance from another 'Inspektor' satellite for further inspection of USA 326 (51445, 22009A).

To which Robert Christy responded on Twitter:

Quote
Convention with Plesetsk NOTAMs is that lift off occurs within the first 60 mins when the window is two hours long. This 'rule' is unbroken since 2014. A 19:00-21:00 NOTAM points to lift off 19:00-20:00. It doesn't rule out 20:25 but…
Beware of wishful thinking!


We'll have to wait and see whether there is a connection with either of these missions or if this is just a coincidence.

Offline B. Hendrickx

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1419
  • Liked: 1970
  • Likes Given: 70
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/17402341

TASS confirms liftoff at 19.57 UTC.

Offline B. Hendrickx

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1419
  • Liked: 1970
  • Likes Given: 70
https://tass.ru/kosmos/17402597

Orbit insertion confirmed and stable telemetry being received. As expected, the satellite is called Kosmos-2568. No mention of a Volga upper stage in the report.

Offline smoliarm

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 832
  • Moscow, Russia
  • Liked: 719
  • Likes Given: 612
Interfax - DoD confirms success:
https://www.interfax.ru/russia/893556

Quote
"В расчетное время космический аппарат выведен на целевую орбиту и принят на управление. С космическим аппаратом установлена и поддерживается устойчивая телеметрическая связь"

Google Translation:
"At the estimated time, the spacecraft was launched into the target orbit and accepted for control. A stable telemetry connection was established and maintained with the spacecraft"

Offline John Santos

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 254
  • Liked: 241
  • Likes Given: 143
Kosmos 2568 launched 4 minutes before Starlink 5-10, so both were enroute to orbit at the same time.  I think this is the first time this has ever happened.

Offline B. Hendrickx

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1419
  • Liked: 1970
  • Likes Given: 70
The Volga wasn't mentioned either in the official reports on the Kosmos-2561/2562 launch last October (the latest Soyuz-2-1v launch with the upper stage), so it's too early to conclude that today's launch didn't carry the upper stage. We'll just have to wait for the TLEs to find out. It'll also be interesting to see if there is any connection between this mission and Kosmos-2558 or Kosmos-2562, whose orbital planes were close to Plesetsk at the time of launch.

Offline Conexion Espacial

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2081
  • Liked: 3166
  • Likes Given: 2275
Kosmos 2568 launched 4 minutes before Starlink 5-10, so both were enroute to orbit at the same time.  I think this is the first time this has ever happened.
HII-A (GCOM-C & SLATS) (01:26 UTC) and Falcon 9 (Iridium-4) (01:27 UTC) hold the record on December 23, 2017.
59-second difference between the two liftoffs
I publish information in Spanish about space and rockets.
www.x.com/conexionspacial

Offline B. Hendrickx

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1419
  • Liked: 1970
  • Likes Given: 70
Robert Christy on Twitter:

Quote
Cosmos 2568
Mar 29, 19:57 UTC
Soyuz-2 1V
Plesetsk SC

Launch time of day similar to Cosmos 2560, 2555 & 2551 - all of them re-entered naturally after a few weeks without orbital manoeuvres.

LTDN ~19:37

Perhaps another indication that the payload is indeed EO MKA nr. 4, as was reported by an apparent insider on a Russian spaceflight forum earlier this month.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48936
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 82742
  • Likes Given: 37228
https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1641206790762254345

Quote
Just minutes before SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral, Russia launched a Soyuz-2.1v from Plesetsk carrying a classified payload.

Article by Justin Mooney (@OGNovuh):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/03/kosmos-2568/

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48936
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 82742
  • Likes Given: 37228
https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266

Quote
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1689
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 462
  • Likes Given: 199
https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266

Quote
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045
The orbital parameters for the Kosmos 2568 are similar to those for the Kosmos 2555, furthering corroborating the probable ID of Kosmos 2568 as EO MKA 4.
« Last Edit: 03/30/2023 02:26 pm by Vahe231991 »

Offline Conexion Espacial

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2081
  • Liked: 3166
  • Likes Given: 2275
I publish information in Spanish about space and rockets.
www.x.com/conexionspacial

Offline russianhalo117

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8789
  • Liked: 4701
  • Likes Given: 768
https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266

Quote
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045
The orbital parameters for the Kosmos 2568 are similar to those for the Kosmos 2555, furthering corroborating the probable ID of Kosmos 2568 as EMKA 4.
Do not confuse EMKA series with EO MKA series.

Offline russianhalo117

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8789
  • Liked: 4701
  • Likes Given: 768
The Volga wasn't mentioned either in the official reports on the Kosmos-2561/2562 launch last October (the latest Soyuz-2-1v launch with the upper stage), so it's too early to conclude that today's launch didn't carry the upper stage. We'll just have to wait for the TLEs to find out. It'll also be interesting to see if there is any connection between this mission and Kosmos-2558 or Kosmos-2562, whose orbital planes were close to Plesetsk at the time of launch.
Anatoly Zak's removed from his article information about Volga that his contacts have quickly retracted  post launch the indication of the Volga upper stage on this flight rather clarifying there is more than one 2.1v presently at the cosmodrome which was also retracted for stating to much. This might have caused earlier confusion.
« Last Edit: 03/30/2023 04:42 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Satori

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14480
  • Campo do Gerês - Portugal
  • Liked: 2017
  • Likes Given: 1178
Some screen grabs from Russian MoD launch video...

Offline Satori

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14480
  • Campo do Gerês - Portugal
  • Liked: 2017
  • Likes Given: 1178
A few more...

 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1