SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[AmigaClone]

Just to add more noise...   I note on the Starship notifications thread, Musk has said OFT3 could be ready (technically) in 3~4 weeks.

I know that's musk-weeks, but we might get one extra point on the graph from starship this year.

I can see a very slim chance (less than 5%) of a third Starship flight this year - likely between Christmas and New Year's. I see an even smaller chance of a third Starship Integrated Test Flight in early January - unless SpaceX receives a FAA launch license for the previously mentioned timeframe but is unable to launch until after the new year.

Had Starship ITF-2 gone according to plan I had estimated the chances of a third integrated Starship flight before the end of the year to be great.

[catdlr]

"A factor to consider for evaluating success in 2024 and beyond is the eventual transition of Starlink satellite deployments from Falcon 9 to Starship. As Starship launches become successful, the number of Falcon 9 launches will likely decrease compared to, for instance, China's launches. To account for this shift, perhaps a more comprehensive metric like overall annual tonnage could be adopted as a new measure of success instead of focusing solely on launch count.

Best,
Tony

[Brigantine]

If Starship is successful but doesn't achieve any additional market development... then we should be the saddest creatures in the world

[darkenfast]

Sadly, if SpaceX only gets to 99 by the end of December 31st, we can be sure there will be many articles with headlines like "Musk Fails Again!".

[kevin-rf]

Having just finished Isaacson’s book (okay,  I cheated,  and listened to the audio book) on Musk, I wonder if he even remembers predicting 100 launches in 2023.

That said,  I do have a hotel room booked for the last week of December. This way I can watch launch 100 from the sunny beaches of South Padre Island.

[Brigantine]

I wonder if he even remembers predicting 100 launches in 2023

IIRC he actually predicted that they wouldn't quite reach that goal, because weather

[edzieba]

Cleaned up my data (using Jonathan's launch list rather than wikipedia's, because it was easier to filter). First chart is from 2017, second is since Falcon 1 flight 1. Falcon 1, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship launches are included (only IFT-1 and IFT-2, so orbital launches/attempts only). Lines are year-to-date totals and a rolling average of same.
100 launches in 2023 looks like it'll just be barely out of reach, but 100 launches in the last 1 year period will probably be hit sometime in January.

[EnigmaSCADA]

"A factor to consider for evaluating success in 2024 and beyond is the eventual transition of Starlink satellite deployments from Falcon 9 to Starship. As Starship launches become successful, the number of Falcon 9 launches will likely decrease compared to, for instance, China's launches. To account for this shift, perhaps a more comprehensive metric like overall annual tonnage could be adopted as a new measure of success instead of focusing solely on launch count.

Best,
Tony

Might be difficult considering the opaqueness of many Chinese and top secret payloads. Maybe maximum potential payload of the launch vehicles or delta-v?

[EnigmaSCADA]

What's the actual data on those 100+ launch years the USSR had in the late 70's to mid 80's? Like what were the actual numbers? Having trouble finding this info for some reason.

[xyv]

Now 16 to go in 49 days to hit 100 

Now 13 to go in 41 days. It's gonna be close

Including or excluding Starship?

From the very first post in the thread:

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

I am not the aribtrator of truth but those were my rules and I did state them at the start.  Somewhere in these pages I also noted that right before SpaceX stopped covering launches on YouTube they were announcing "...this is our xxth launch of the year..." which excluded IFT1 from the count of xx.

Little did he know he would set the nerds running off to do Monte Carlo simulations or what have you to try and work out how many minutes before midnight on 31 December the 100th F9 would breach the firmament.🙄

...Little did we know but beilive me I had hopes that it would happen - an active and fun thread.  Indeed, 31 pages and counting, and I am still having fun.  Whatever the final total this is a ridiculous high water mark for any launch vehicle/company/country and I hope you have enjoyed the geek wars as much as I have.

[AmigaClone]

What's the actual data on those 100+ launch years the USSR had in the late 70's to mid 80's? Like what were the actual numbers? Having trouble finding this info for some reason.

I'm not sure of there is a place that would allow you to just look up that info. The  USSR had 100+ orbital launches in 1976, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1983, and 1985. !982 saw 108 launches, 1977 saw 102 launches and the other 4 years saw 100 launches each. You could look up the 'List of R-7 Launches' and 'List of Proton Launches' on Wikipedia which would break those numbers down some.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Data:Orbital_launches_by_country.tab

[Comga]

Including or excluding Starship?

Including IFT-1 and IFT-2

Great as they are, those aren’t successful orbital launches. I wouldn’t count them.

Well, everyone can define the goalposts as they see fit, but I believe most people are assuming Elon was including Starship launches (successful or not) in his 100.

Agreed
It’s in the thread title.
100 SpaceX launches in 2023
They are almost there.
As shown above, soon SpaceX will have performed 100 launches in the preceding 365 days.
That’s a technical triumph.
Whether the lines cross to the left or right of 2020-01-01-00:00 is just this beer bet

edit: With this morning's Starlink 6-29 launch, and including Starship IFT-2, the pace of the last ten launches reached an astounding 153 per year, a 2.4 day average interval.
The corresponding projection is 105 launches in 2023.

[Asteroza]

Speaking of beer bets, what's the official NSF beer bet status on this? Did anyone actually register a beer bet for 100 launches in the tracker thread?

[Robotbeat]

Now 16 to go in 49 days to hit 100 

Now 13 to go in 41 days. It's gonna be close

Including or excluding Starship?

From the very first post in the thread:

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

I am not the aribtrator of truth but those were my rules and I did state them at the start.  Somewhere in these pages I also noted that right before SpaceX stopped covering launches on YouTube they were announcing "...this is our xxth launch of the year..." which excluded IFT1 from the count of xx.

Little did he know he would set the nerds running off to do Monte Carlo simulations or what have you to try and work out how many minutes before midnight on 31 December the 100th F9 would breach the firmament.🙄

...Little did we know but beilive me I had hopes that it would happen - an active and fun thread.  Indeed, 31 pages and counting, and I am still having fun.  Whatever the final total this is a ridiculous high water mark for any launch vehicle/company/country and I hope you have enjoyed the geek wars as much as I have.

I've been counting IFT-1 in every model run I've done since IFT-1. The title of the thread and your introduction (not the later graph) implied Starship to me, so that's what I've done. I think the companion poll included Starship launches as well.

[M.E.T.]

Oh no! Cat amongst the pigeons now!

[Brigantine]

From the very first post in the thread:

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

Fair enough. Truthfully, I would be following the 'Falcon only' count with just as much enthusiasm if there was still much hope. As it so happens 'SpaceX launches' is a tossup and 'Falcon launches' is a long shot as far as the 100 milestone goes. For that matter, also the number of boosters launched, counting each FH as 3 booster flights.

[steveleach]

FWIW, the original quote from Elon is just...

Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

This was in response to Eric Berger's post

SpaceX launched its 39th rocket of 2022 last night from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company has now launched a Falcon 9 every 6.2 days this year, putting them on pace for a total of 55 to 60. I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1564953855384817666

[redneck]

From the very first post in the thread:

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

Fair enough. Truthfully, I would be following the 'Falcon only' count with just as much enthusiasm if there was still much hope. As it so happens 'SpaceX launches' is a tossup and 'Falcon launches' is a long shot as far as the 100 milestone goes. For that matter, also the number of boosters launched, counting each FH as 3 booster flights.

If counting each FH as 3 booster flights, they are at 94 already with 5 weeks to go.

[catdlr]

From the very first post in the thread:

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

Fair enough. Truthfully, I would be following the 'Falcon only' count with just as much enthusiasm if there was still much hope. As it so happens 'SpaceX launches' is a tossup and 'Falcon launches' is a long shot as far as the 100 milestone goes. For that matter, also the number of boosters launched, counting each FH as 3 booster flights.

If counting each FH as 3 booster flights, they are at 94 already with 5 weeks to go.

yeah, I already tried that, got shot down.

[redneck]

From the very first post in the thread:

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

Fair enough. Truthfully, I would be following the 'Falcon only' count with just as much enthusiasm if there was still much hope. As it so happens 'SpaceX launches' is a tossup and 'Falcon launches' is a long shot as far as the 100 milestone goes. For that matter, also the number of boosters launched, counting each FH as 3 booster flights.

If counting each FH as 3 booster flights, they are at 94 already with 5 weeks to go.

yeah, I already tried that, got shot down.

Actually I agree. Just going with the thought.